USPS Going Private? & SoftBank Makes $100B Bet on AI in America

Summary

Morning Brew Daily: Episode Summary Title: USPS Going Private? & SoftBank Makes $100B Bet on AI in America
Release Date: December 17, 2024

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1. The Potential Privatization of the United States Postal Service (USPS)

Neal Freyman opens the discussion by addressing the controversial possibility of privatizing the USPS. He highlights the organization's historical significance and current financial struggles.

"The US Postal Service, whose origins in 1775 predate the country itself, is currently a self-funded, independently operating public sector entity. But its business model is collapsing."
[03:03] - Neal Freyman

The conversation delves into the financial woes of the USPS, noting a staggering net loss of $9.5 billion in the last fiscal year. Freyman points out that the primary revenue from traditional mail services, such as Mother's Day cards and wedding thank-you notes, has significantly declined over the decades.

"People sending Mother's Day cards and wedding thank you notes has plunged into the past few decades, leading to a net loss of $9.5 billion in the last fiscal year."
[03:03] - Neal Freyman

Toby Howell weighs in on the implications of privatization, emphasizing the potential disruptions to the e-commerce industry and the hardships it could impose on small businesses and rural communities. He underscores the USPS's role as a beloved federal agency, second only to the National Park Service in public favorability.

"The Postal Service is one of America's most beloved federal agencies. It trails only the park service in a 2024 Pew Research study of most favorable outlooks on these services."
[04:20] - Toby Howell

Freyman elaborates on the USPS's universal service obligation, which mandates mail delivery to all regions, including areas that might be underserved by private companies. He warns that privatization could exacerbate delivery times in less populated areas, contrasting urban efficiency with rural inefficiency.

"The USPS has to deliver to those because it is a government-funded organization and is required to go there as a, you know, a loss-making entity."
[05:12] - Neal Freyman

The discussion further highlights Amazon's dependence on the USPS for last-mile delivery, suggesting that privatization could severely impact the logistics of one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms.

"Amazon is constantly trying to figure out last mile delivery. The Postal Service is its biggest, you know, way it fulfills that last mile delivery going from fulfillment centers to your actual home."
[06:05] - Toby Howell

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2. Germany's Economic Struggles Post-Government Collapse

Transitioning to international affairs, Freyman reports on Germany's severe economic turmoil following the collapse of its government under mounting economic pressures.

"Germany, Europe's largest economy, is facing its biggest economic crisis since reunification 35 years ago."
[07:40] - Neal Freyman

Howell analyzes the structural issues plaguing Germany, such as chronic underinvestment, the loss of affordable Russian energy post-Ukraine invasion, and heightened competition from Chinese companies. He emphasizes the impact on households, citing Bloomberg's estimate that each German household is worse off by $2,600 annually since the pandemic.

"Bloomberg estimates that the decline in German competitiveness means every household is worse off by $2,600 a year since the pandemic."
[09:02] - Toby Howell

The discussion covers the challenges the new German government faces, particularly the constitutional debt brake that restricts budget expansion, limiting its ability to stimulate the economy through increased spending.

"They have this actually debt break that is in their constitution, which effectively hamstrings them of what they can do with their budget."
[09:48] - Toby Howell

Freyman touches on the decline of Germany's export dominance, especially in the automotive sector, with major manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen experiencing significant revenue drops in crucial markets like China.

"The German automakers... they're absolutely collapsing in China, which was their largest market."
[10:00] - Neal Freyman

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3. SoftBank's $100 Billion Investment in AI in America

The spotlight shifts to technology and investment as Howell announces SoftBank CEO Masa Yoshi Son's ambitious pledge.

"SoftBank CEO Masa Yoshi Son... announced a $100 billion investment in the US over the next four years."
[11:03] - Toby Howell

Son's commitment focuses on the artificial intelligence sector, aiming to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration to generate at least 100,000 jobs in AI, data centers, and chip manufacturing.

"Son and SoftBank have their sights set on the AI industry and promise to work with Trump to create 100,000 jobs at a minimum related to artificial intelligence, data centers and chip manufacturing."
[12:02] - Toby Howell

Freyman reflects on Son's history of bold investments through SoftBank's Vision Fund, noting both successes like Uber and setbacks such as the robot pizza-making venture.

"This guy is known for taking big bets and he's also known for cozying up to President Trump."
[12:57] - Neal Freyman

However, skepticism arises regarding the feasibility of SoftBank delivering on the $100 billion pledge, especially considering the firm's available cash reserves and past investment performance.

"SoftBank only has $30 billion cash on hand. He's pledging $100 billion, 100,000 jobs. We'll see what happens."
[13:03] - Neal Freyman

Howell suggests that the announcement might serve more as a public relations maneuver aligned with President Trump's agenda to fast-track significant investments in the US, rather than a concrete investment strategy.

"Making that announcement, people are like, all right, you're already doing this anyway... it does go along with his agenda as well."
[13:58] - Toby Howell

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4. Toby's Trends: The Resurgence of Virtue Names

In the segment titled "Toby's Trends," Howell explores the renewed popularity of virtue names—names that embody traditional virtues such as Patience, Prudence, and Chastity.

"Today's Toby's trend is all about the sudden resurgence of so-called virtue names."
[15:20] - Toby Howell

He traces the historical and cultural influences driving this trend, including the impact of pop culture phenomena like the sitcom "Will & Grace" and country singers like Faith Hill. Additionally, Howell notes the linguistic trend of names ending in "-y" or "-ie," such as Harmony and Serenity, which have contributed to their modern appeal.

"Names ending in -y or -ie are experiencing one of their biggest booms in decades as well."
[17:24] - Toby Howell

Freyman adds an anecdote about the historical spike in the name Grace following Grace Darling's heroic actions in the 1840s, illustrating how singular events can influence naming trends.

"When Grace Darling saved nine people from a shipwreck, everyone started naming their girls Grace."
[16:37] - Neal Freyman

The segment concludes with a playful suggestion to include the name "Sapiens," meaning wisdom, hinting at the potential for future trends.

"Put sapiens on there because you could be kicking off a new trend of virtue names."
[17:24] - Toby Howell

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5. Other News Highlights

Freyman and Howell briefly touch upon several additional news items:

• TikTok and the Trump Administration:
  Trump meets with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew amid potential nationwide bans.
  [19:35] - Neal Freyman

  The discussion highlights TikTok's legal maneuvers to halt the ban and speculates on Trump's limited ability to influence the situation before his second term begins.

• Amazon Under Scrutiny:
  Senate Committee report alleges Amazon manipulated worker injury data, leading to significant criticism from Bernie Sanders.
  [20:41] - Neal Freyman

  Amazon counters by claiming the report relies on a minimal and non-representative sample of its workforce, questioning the validity of the committee's conclusions.

• Apple's Foray into Foldable Devices:
  Reports suggest Apple is developing two foldable devices—a large iPad and a slightly larger than iPhone 16 Max.
  [22:07] - Toby Howell

  Freyman expresses skepticism about the practicality and market reception of such devices, citing potential issues with cost and usability.

• Top Downloaded Apps:
  Apple releases its top 10 most downloaded apps for the year, with Tamu (a Chinese shopping marketplace) leading the list, followed by Meta Threads and TikTok.
  [24:16] - Neal Freyman

  The ranking underscores shifting consumer preferences and the rising prominence of AI and streaming services like Max.

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Conclusion

Morning Brew Daily provides a comprehensive overview of pressing issues ranging from the potential privatization of the USPS and Germany's economic challenges to significant investments in AI by SoftBank. Additionally, the podcast delves into cultural trends like the resurgence of virtue names and touches upon notable corporate and political developments. With insightful analysis and engaging discussions, the episode offers listeners a nuanced understanding of current events shaping the business and economic landscape.

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For more information or to share feedback, listeners are encouraged to contact Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com.

Transcript

[Sponsor Voice]

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[Neal Freyman]

See DutchBros.com Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.

[Toby Howell]

And I'm Toby Howell.

[Neal Freyman]

Today, could the United States Postal Service be privatized? Neumann would like a word then.

[Toby Howell]

Germany is riding das struggle bus after its government collapse under the weight of economic turmoil. It's Tuesday, December 17th. Let's ride.

[Neal Freyman]

Have you noticed that people are randomly talking about Interstellar a lot even though the movie came out in 2014? Well, it's probably because Christopher Nolan's space epic has returned to IMAX theaters for a few weekends now and just became the highest grossing IMAX rerelease of all time, earning $17.4 million already in its run. It started a bunch of chatter online about which movie or movies should be the next on the docket for an IMAX rerelease. I know you've got some ideas, Toby.

[Toby Howell]

I've got some ideas. One of my favorite movies of all time is Mad Max Fury Road, which would undoubtedly slap in the IMAX format. But also thinking of good movies to rerelease an IMAX is kind of boring. So my mind went to what would be the worst movie of all time to release an imax, And I think the answer has to be Cats. I mean, the movie adaptation of the Broadway musical that cat ified everyone from, you know, Ian McClellan to Taylor Swift. It was a nightmare for you. And I'd love to see them in, you know, 10 foot tall versions of themselves on an IMAX theater.

[Neal Freyman]

People would probably go ironically.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, ironically. Do you have a movie that you would like to see rerelease?

[Neal Freyman]

Well, I was looking at one of this. The film critics from Variety put together a list and they were pretty good. So I'll just say five of them. Pulp Fiction would be amazing. Gravity, which is another space film that people say is even better than Interstellar. So that would be, you know, a sensory overload. Fight Club could be good. And then Casino Royale, one of the best Bond flicks of all time. And finally Blade.

[Toby Howell]

See, it's boring to think of good movies because of course those like, yeah.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah, it's not that surprising.

[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

Build a Range Rover Sport that matches your style @Land Rover USA.com that's Land Rover USA.com the incoming Trump administration has promised sweeping measures to cut costs in the government, and one controversial aspect of the plan has picked up steam in recent days. Taking USPS private. The US Postal Service, whose origins in 1775 predate the country itself, is currently a self funded, independently operating public sector entity. But its business model is collapsing. Its main revenue source, people sending Mother's Day cards and wedding thank you notes, has plunged into the past few decades, leading to a net loss of $9.5 billion in the last fiscal year. Advisers to Trump think the USPS would be better off left to its own devices rather than being subsidized by the government, so they've recommended cutting it loose, the Washington Post reported over the weekend. At a press conference yesterday, Trump confirmed the rumors, saying there is talk about the Postal Service being taken private. Not the worst idea I've ever heard. It really isn't. He added that we are looking at privatizing the service. Toby Turning the USPS into a for profit entity would be a seismic event for the trillion dollar e commerce industry, likely leaving small businesses and rural communities in the lurch. Do you think it would ever get the stamp of approval?

[Toby Howell]

It's tough because the Postal Service is one of America's most beloved federal agencies. It trails only the park service in a 2024 Pew Research study of most favorable outlooks on these services. But it has become this target, especially in this era of doge government efficiency that we are about to enter. It has been a popular target to potentially become privatized so it could save the government a little bit of money. The Postal Service is a loss making machine. It lost nine and a half billion dollars in the last fiscal year. It has $80 billion in liabilities on its balance sheet right now. So obviously it's going to come up as maybe a hot button issue when you are trying to cut costs from the government. But it is one of those things that a lot of people rely on. So it's more complicated than just oh, it's losing money, we need to do something about it. It provides a very essential service for a lot of Americans.

[Neal Freyman]

It provides essential service because there is a requirement that is known as the universal service obligation which requires it to deliver mail to all parts of the country, Alaska rural communities, places that maybe a for profit delivery service would not go or at least, you know, bunch them together and only deliver once a week. The United USPS has to deliver to those because it is a government funded organization and is required to go there as a, you know, a loss making entity. Like it's a for profit business would never do that. So that's why the USPS is important to those communities. And if it were to be privatized, I mean we live in New York City, if we want to go to, if you want to order something from Amazon, it could get here prime two days or even same day. If we lived in the boonies, then Amazon would probably take a lot longer to deliver. And if the USPS was privatized, that's probably what would happen.

[Toby Howell]

Let's talk a little bit about Amazon. Amazon is the Postal service's largest customer. It uses it. Remember Amazon is constantly trying to figure out last mile delivery. The Postal Service is its biggest, you know, way it fulfills that last mile delivery going from fulfillment centers to your actual home. So you, you mentioned the, each the e commerce industry. This would really disrupt it if you disrupt the postal service because it relies so much upon it. And so yeah, I don't think that it's going to be popular with Amazon. Trump has in the past, you know, called out Amazon and said the Postal service had double prices when it comes to Amazon because he had a feud with Jeff Bezos dating back to his last administration. We'll see if he kind of strikes a similar anti Amazon tone here in this next iteration of potentially, you know, trying to bring the Postal Service private.

[Neal Freyman]

If you look at it as a private company, you'd be like this thing is uninvestable. Like they are a company that was made for the 1950s. They are not made for the 2024. I mean their biggest revenue source is sending, sending mail. So in 2020, 2001, that's when mail peaked in the United States. 104 billion pieces were sent. But it's just been absolutely plunging since then. In 2019 just 55 billion pieces of mail were sent. So it's got to find other revenue sources. It's done this business with Amazon. Democrats want to make it into a quasi bank. So, you know, it's a tough. It's a tough business, right? You're in the business, right?

[Toby Howell]

Your thank you notes, people. That's what I'm taking away from this.

[Neal Freyman]

Okay? Big European country tried to have a functioning government challenge with its neighbor France. In its worst political turmoil in decades, Germany said, hold my half a vision. Yesterday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in Parliament, paving the way for elections in February, seven months earlier than originally scheduled. The next German government basically only has one overarching New Year's resolution, and that's to kickstart an economy that's remained in neutral or worse for the past five years. The country, Europe's largest economy, is facing its biggest economic Crisis since reunification 35 years ago. And even worse, this once vaunted industrial juggernaut is plagued by structural problems, not easily fixed problems like chronic underinvestment, losing cheap Russian energy following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and getting its lunch eaten by companies in China. Bloomberg estimates that the decline in German competitiveness means every household is worse off by $2,600 a year since the pandemic. And even with the early election, it looks like more political deadlock is in store, which is not a recipe for the ambitious reforms Germany needs to regain its economic footing. Analysts compare Germany's economy. I'm analysts. To an old air mattress that slowly but surely loses its structural integrity until there's nothing left, propping it up. Toby, let's say you become Chancellor of Germany in February. How are you tackling the country's economic malaise?

[Toby Howell]

Well, it's tough because you need the government to spend some money here. They're under a ton of pressure to spend on defense, on infrastructure, on social welfare, on getting your vaunted manufacturing industry back in its groove. But the problem with Germany is they're very austere. They have this actually debt break that is in their constitution, which effectively hamstrings them of what they can do with their budget. They are not allowed to. Their debt cannot exceed 0.35% of GDP. So their hands are behind their back here. They can't do much to increase spending, increase spending from the government to try to reverse this doldrum it's been in. So I don't know what I would do. I would probably get ousted as well, because there's just not an easy path Forward here.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah, they're, they're maybe looking for ways to, you know, get around this debt break so they can spend more. Reminded me of our debt ceiling that the United States doesn't really seem to care about that much, but the Germans. The Germans do. The problem is, yeah, the problem here is very structural. Germany used to be an export powerhouse. In 1986, 87, 88 and 90, they were the world's largest exporter. They were exporting more than the Americans, way more than the Japanese. And they sold a lot of those goods, especially cars, to China. Now China is a manufacturing powerhouse. The, especially their auto industry. They're selling not just in China, but also in the European market. You just look at, you know, the German automakers. They're absolutely collapsing in China, which was their largest market. The latest quarter. BMW, 30% revenue plunge. Mercedes, 13% decline in sales. Volkswagen, 15% decline. So they can't sell as much as they used to in China. Meanwhile, we, I talked about the gas situation. The energy prices for that go into their factories are rising because they used to get 55% of their gas from Russia. That has been severed after the, after the war. So, I mean, it is a tough situation there for Europe's largest economy.

[Toby Howell]

SoftBank CEO Masa Yoshi Son, never one to shy away from a big bet, is doubling down on America. The mercurial Japanese tech investor announced a 100 billion investment in the US over the next four years, making the pledge during a visit to President elect Donald Trump's Mar? A Largo estate yesterday. Son loves putting a lot of his chips on red and white and blue. During the last Trump presidency, in 2016, he pledged to invest $50 billion in the US economy and create 50,000 jobs. While he technically fulfilled that lofty financial obligation, by the end of Trump's turn, nearly half of the money went into funding the office space startup we work. According to Axios, this time around, sun and SoftBank have their sights set on the AI industry and promise to work with Trump to create 100,000 jobs at a minimum related to artificial intelligence, data centers and chip manufacturing. Neal Masayoshi son is back and ready for round two.

[Neal Freyman]

He's back. It feels like we're 2016 all over again. This guy, for people who maybe weren't paying attention for business news, kind of upended the venture capital industry in the startup community in the United states when he raised 00 billion for a vision fund and was plowing hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions, into American startups like Uber, like we work A lot of them were flops. Like we work a lot. Like there was a robot pizza making company. A lot of them did well. Uber. And he's investor in Nvidia as well and in arm, which is a chip designer that just recently went public and is doing really well. So this guy, you're right, he's known for taking big bets and he's also known for cozying up to President Trump. And so he's, he just finds these big, like round numbers and loves them and is going to make the announcement. But we'll see whether he can actually follow through on this because softbank only has $30 billion cash on hand. He's pledging $100 billion, 100,000 jobs. We'll see what happens.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, it's a little unclear where that money is going to come from. A lot of people are looking at this more of a potential PR play than actual and investment strategy. Because, you know, Even back in 2016, SoftBank was already going to deploy its vision fund into United States in U.S. companies. So making that announcement, people are like, all right, you're already doing this anyway. And it's similar here because they already have been investing heavily in AI. They had plans to go even deeper. So just sidling up next to Trump and making that announcement maybe is more of a PR play. That being said, though, Trump did say that he wants to fast track investment in the United States. He said any company that invests $1 billion or more in the US would receive fast track permitting. So it does go along with his agenda as well. So you can see both the agendas were aligned here. They did want to make a headline in announcing this up next. It's Tuesday, which means it is time for Toby's Trends.

[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

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[Sponsor Voice]

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[Toby Howell]

Open up that notes app on your phone where you keep track of baby names. Because today's Toby's trend is all about the sudden resurgence of so called virtue names. What are virtue names? Well, they're not Toby or Neil. Instead, think Patience or Prudence or Chastity. You know, names that stem from traditional, often puritan virtues. They used to be all the rage in the 90s. There are more American newborns with virtue names than in the 1780s. But according to a Washington Post analysis, we're still riding a virtuous name wave to this day. U.S. women's National Team goalie Hope Solo, former Trump press secretary Hope Hicks, NBA journeyman Justice Winslow. The more you look, the more they start popping up. Originally popular in puritan times, the more modern appeal of virtue names isn't reflective of a sudden renewal of religious vigor. Instead, the booms can be traced back to pop culture. The sitcom Will in Grace, which originally ran in 1998-2006, for instance, coincided with the rise in babies named Grace, while names like Faith saw a boost after George Michael's album of the Same name sold 25 million copies. I know you like that.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah.

[Toby Howell]

Neil, any harmonies or serenities in your life?

[Neal Freyman]

But I will say there are a lot of graces. And it was very interesting tracing back the origins of the word grace because again, it was kind of like the pop culture of the 1840s. There was a girl in Britain who saved nine people from a shipwreck named Grace Darling. And that was, I guess, their sitcom, you know, TV show of the day. So everyone started naming their, their girls Grace. And that when they all came over to the United States, then they continued the, the grace phenomenon. In the 1850 census, one in four graces in the United States were British or Irish immigrants. So that one incident that probably was played over and over again in the British newspapers led to, you know, a phenomenon here in the United States when it came to baby naming.

[Toby Howell]

And then you can also track it to some more modern names as well. I mean, the rise of the country Singer Faith Hill led a lot of people to be named Faith. There was also a character named Faith in the TV series Buffy the Vampire Slayer. Chastity actually started popping off after Sunny and Cher picked it for their child. But honestly, a lot of these virtue names can also be tracked back to another explanation, and that is names ending and why became a lot more trendy recently. So Harmony, Serenity, the most common endings for virtue names is ending and why and that names ending and why are experiencing one of their biggest booms in decades as well. So maybe it's less that they are virtue names and more that they just end in y. Toby Neely no, not quite one.

[Neal Freyman]

One interesting thing about virtue names is that they often go together in twins. So in 2011 in the US faith and hope were the fourth most common pairing of names for twins. So you can often pair these together and you get a very virtuous household.

[Toby Howell]

And this came from this big Washington Post analysis from their department of Data. And they offered one name that they think is different, old fashioned but not off trend, and that is sapiens, which means wisdom. So again, pull out that notes app in your phone. I know everyone has, you know, their running list of baby names or at least people my age do. Put sapiens on there because that you could be kicking off a new trend of virtue names. Now let's sprint to the finish with some headlines you may have missed. Up first, Donald Trump met with Tick Tock CEO Show Z Chu at Mar A Lago yesterday as the company tries to dance out of the potential nationwide ban it's facing. Tik Tok filed an emergency petition asking the Supreme Court to halt a law that would require ByteDance, its parent company, to sell the app by January 19, arguing the ban infringes on its First Amendment rights. Trump, who was once all gung ho about banning the app during his first term, has switched his tune and told reporters yesterday that he has a, quote, warm spot for the app. Neil we don't know much about how the actual meeting went, but it's clear that Show Ji Q is wasting little time trying to get the new administration on his side.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah, it's not quite clear what Trump could do to stop this ban from going into effect, because Congress passed this and they are ready to make it happen. They issued letters recently to Google and Apple saying, you guys better be prepared to take TikTok off your app stores because if not, we're going to fine you. So there you could that TikTok's throwing up a Hail Mary to the Supreme Court. Trump could extend the deadline. That's one thing that was written into the law that the President can do. So he can't kill it, but he can extend it. Or he could help Tick Tock find a buyer. Right, that's, it's not necessarily a ban on Tick Tock, it's the, the law forces ByteDance to sell tick Tock to an American buyer. So Trump, if he considers himself a dealmaker, could look into that. So those are a few of the options. I know he has a warm spot for Tick Tock, but there's just, you know, even as the President, his hands are tied a little bit. I expect maybe the deadline to get kicked.

[Toby Howell]

Right. That's the problem. Trump's second term begins on January 20th. The deadline is set for January 19th. So how can he do much if he's not even inaugurated yet?

[Neal Freyman]

So we might have the shortest lived Tick Tock ban in.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah. One day.

[Neal Freyman]

A massive congressional investigation led by Bernie Sanders into Amazon found the company manipulated data on warehouse worker injuries and ignored internal research that offered ways to improve the situation. Sunday night, the majority staff of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, labor and Pensions, which Bernie oversees, issued a scathing report that found Amazon recorded 30% more employee injuries last year than the warehouse industry average and that on its own, in its own internal research, it linked its productivity quotas to higher injury rates. The company, which has been investigated by Bernie and others for its warehouse work culture, said the report was, quote, wrong on the facts and that Bernie cherry picked data and anecdotes to suit his narrative, which is that Amazon is putting profits above people.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, this is a cherry pick off because Bernie and his committee thinks that the company had been cherry picking stats to hide the fact that its warehouses are more dangerous than they might appear. And then Amazon pushed back saying, no, you're cherry picking stats and especially people. Because Amazon's main gripe with this report was that it was relying on anecdotes from a relatively small portion of their workforce. Remember Amazon employees, 800,000 frontline workers. This committee interviewed 130 workers. So Amazon pointed out that that is 0.018% of its hourly workforce. So how can you draw broad conclusions about their warehouse staff when you're only talking to this few amount of people?

[Neal Freyman]

Have they ever heard of sampling?

[Toby Howell]

I know.

[Neal Freyman]

How many, how many people could you possibly interview? You can interview 500,000 people.

[Toby Howell]

Hey, I'm just saying what the company said in their report. But yeah, you are, you are right. And this is something that you know Amazon has been under intense scrutiny for years. There's another attorney from the Southern District of New York has been investigating allegations as well. So this isn't going away anytime soon. Apple thinks it's figured out a way to reverse flagging sales, and it's Origami, the biggest company in the world, is reportedly developing two foldable devices. One, a giant foldable iPad that could unfurl to the size of two iPad Pros, and the other, an iPhone model that would unfold to a size slightly larger than its current largest iPhone, the 16 Max. Now, Apple has been pretty slow to enter this foldable market, but current foldable technology resulted in a phone too thick for Apple standards. So it's hoping its slow and steady approach with a slated 2026 release date means it's entering the market at just the right time to reverse its flagging sales that saw 2024 revenue grow less than 1%. Neal, do we think foldable phones are going to save Apple?

[Neal Freyman]

Well, we knew about the foldable phones. The new. The new news here was the. The foldable iPad. So you have two iPad pros back to back, and that might be coming in 2028. So I don't know whether people might want to have a Mac laptop and then a massive foldable iPad. But the problem is people do want bigger screens. But when you ship it, you can't build a screen or you can't ship a screen that big. It just gets too expensive and unwieldy. So they're going to fold this, this iPad and hopefully have that to remove. That's been the biggest technological blocker. I mean, I'm not an iPad user, but I could probably see someone liking this.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, they've for years tried to say you can replace your computer with your iPad, which is awkward messaging for a company that also sells, you know, laptops. I don't know. I mean, I think a lot of people have just been tired with Apple for not innovating enough recently. It's mostly been on the software side or when it comes to iPhones, just a camera update here and there. So they are trying to take bigger swings now and say, hey, you want something different? Here's a foldable phone, here's a foldable iPad.

[Neal Freyman]

Don't really work with the headset, which.

[Toby Howell]

Oh, yeah, the Vision Pro, that was a big swing and a big miss. So, I mean, I guess it's better that they're taking swings. I don't know if foldable is the right direction for them, though.

[Neal Freyman]

Apple released the top 10 most downloaded apps from the App Store this year and coming in at number one for the second year running is Tamu, the Chinese shopping marketplace. TMU claimed the top spot from TikTok last year and held onto it, likely thanks to the popularity of its ultra cheap products and its ubiquitous marketing. Coming in second, Meta Threads. TikTok is number three. We'll see how long that lasts. And four and five are ChatGPT and Google search respectively. Toby, people just love to shop like a billionaire.

[Toby Howell]

They do love to shop like a billionaire. Also you look down all around the list. Amazon is number 20. So Tamu is definitely, you know, leaving them in the dust as well. There is a few interesting things about this year's top ten list. You mentioned Chat CBT as the fourth most downloaded app. It is ahead of Google Search App. Chatbots didn't make the top 10 last year. It only released in May on iPhone. So it is interesting to see how much that has shot up. And then one final name I want to call out here is in the top 20 is max. It's the only streaming service that made on the list. Warner Bros. Has low key, been having a really good back half of the year and I think it's on the back of the, you know, interest in Max. Only streamer in the top 20. So that's a name that they definitely like to see in that top 20.

[Neal Freyman]

Remember when people said that, you know, the change from HBO Max to Max would be the death knell of the streaming platform?

[Toby Howell]

I think I said those words.

[Neal Freyman]

I defended it. First of all, we have it on tape. So Ray and Emily, let's, let's bring that up so we can, so I can have my vindication. Okay, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for spending your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. Or make like the Postal Service and deliver this podcast to someone, you know who could be a little more informed about current events. As for who that someone is, Toby is here with a sharing idea.

[Toby Howell]

Okay, so it's Secret Santa season right now, so I want you to share the podcast with someone you definitely didn't forget to buy a gift for now you might think. Hmm, A podcast as a gift. Well, to that I say package it as giving the gift of staying up to date with the business world. Something that arguably is priceless and can even make you money. So maybe MBD for Secret Santa. I'm telling you, it could be the move.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio. Neither snow nor rain, nor heat nor gloom of night stays hair and makeup from the swift completion of their appointed rounds. Devin Emery is our chief content officer. And our show is a production of Morning Brew.

[Toby Howell]

Great show today, Neal. Let's run it back tomorrow.