Morning Brew Daily
Episode: "Wall St. Thirsts For Tariff Refunds & AI ‘Workslop’ Hurts More Than Helps"
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell

Episode Overview

This episode dissects some of the week’s most compelling business and economic headlines: Wall Street’s creative new market in Trump-era tariff refunds, the hidden productivity costs of generative AI “workslop” in the workplace, China’s strategic snub of American soybeans, and three “Neil’s Numbers” covering viral Instagram stats, Broadway’s financial woes, and how mega-events are supercharging Airbnb earnings. The show wraps up with news of a breakthrough Huntington’s treatment and Ben Stiller’s surprising entry into the soda business. Neal and Toby deliver their trademark blend of sharp analysis, accessible explanations, and dry humor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wall Street’s Hot New Bet: Tariff Refund Claims (02:42–07:58)

Background

• Investors have begun buying up claims to tariff refunds from U.S. companies affected by Trump’s import duties.
• If certain tariffs are ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, importers may be due major refunds.
• Investors pay a fraction of the potential refund value, betting on a favorable court ruling.

How It Works

• For claims related to more "legally vulnerable" tariffs (like the “Liberation Day” tariffs), investors pay closer to 20 cents on the dollar; for more “durable” ones, just ~5 cents.
• Neal: "There is so much money at stake here. The U.S. government...has brought in $80 billion through June 30 that could be subject to refund" (04:13).

Why Companies Sell

• Immediate cash cushions the blow of mounting import fees and business disruptions.
• Toby: "A bird in the hand is worth...Who in the bush right now? Legal challenges are very slow to move. Government is going to drag this process out for sure. And immediate cash does cushion some of these current tariff losses" (05:17).

Real-World Example

• One drawstring bag manufacturer is paying an extra $75,000 per container from China, cut their workforce from 9 to 3, and took a Wall Street offer for short-term liquidity (06:06).

Court Prospects

• Oral arguments at the Supreme Court are set for November 5.
• Toby: "[Section 230 tariffs] require a lengthy review process into certain industries like steel, that will be able to stand up to court. But some...Trump kind of passed down through executive emergency action...that's why you're seeing a real risk of a refund" (06:52).

2. “Workslop”: How AI Outputs Are Sapping Productivity (07:58–11:29)

Definition

• "Workslop" (coined in HBR): AI-generated content that looks polished but lacks substance, making more work for colleagues downstream.

Impact Stats

• 40% of surveyed U.S. employees encountered workslop in the past month.
• On average, 2 hours are spent correcting each instance, costing orgs with 10,000 employees $9 million/year in productivity losses.

Broader Implications

• Neal: “AI use has doubled at work since 2023...but 95% of organizations don’t see a measurable return on their investment in AI." (09:26)
• Workslop erodes trust and collaboration:
  • Toby: "50% see people who send them workslop as less creative, capable, and reliable...a third say they're less likely to work with that colleague again" (10:16).

Causes & Solutions

• Top-down AI mandates fuel workslop (“every email...put it through AI first”).
• Advice: Treat AI as an “untrained intern,” always check its outputs, and use AI to polish, not create, content (11:04).

3. U.S. Soybean Farmers Hit by China’s Total Snub (11:29–15:47)

What’s Happening

• China has not ordered a single American soybean shipment this fall — for the first time in 76 years.
• This is a direct result of retaliatory tariffs after Trump’s tariffs on China earlier this year.
• China’s new 34% soy tariff prices out U.S. beans; they're buying from Brazil and Argentina instead.

Ripple Effects

• Toby: “Iowa...is almost $6 billion a year and the knock-on effects from China not buying are huge:...manufacturers, crop insurance, processors, rail, storage all depend on consistent revenue from China" (13:15).
• Neal: “From January through August, Brazil set a record for shipments to China. So that’s where China is turning toward.” (14:03).

Potential Outcomes

• Farmers face financial collapse or have to store unsold crops.
• Talk of renewed farm bailouts (as in the 2018 trade war).
• Story is also geopolitical: China is deepening ties with BRICS partners.

4. Neil’s Numbers: Three Stats That Matter (17:45–24:32)

a) Instagram Hits 3 Billion Users

• Instagram joins Facebook and WhatsApp in Meta's exclusive club.
• “More than 50% of time spent on Instagram now involves watching videos, most of which are made by people you don't even follow. And private messages have largely replaced sharing to the public feed” (Neal, 17:45).
• Instagram tweaks UI to highlight Reels and messaging even more, following TikTok’s model.

b) Broadway Musicals Are Bleeding Money

• None of the 18 commercial musicals from last season turned a profit.
• Only 3 of 46 new musicals have made money since the pandemic.
• High costs and price-sensitive audiences are squeezing the sector.
• “Andrew Lloyd Weber...said Broadway is not a business anymore. The statistics are terrible. I’m very worried...I just don’t see how it can sustain.” (Neal, 19:47)
• Plays with star power (e.g., Denzel Washington, George Clooney) are faring better, but have limited runs.

c) Ryder Cup Turns Long Island into an Airbnb Bonanza

• Some homes fetching $30,000 for a four-night Ryder Cup stay.
• Booking revenue up 345% from last year in Farmingdale & nearby towns.
• “If you are a homeowner in suburban New Jersey, anywhere near East Rutherford, definitely think about Airbnb-ing your house because you’re going to make so much money..." (Neal, 25:36)
• Pattern seen at every “mega event” — from the Masters in Augusta to the Olympics and upcoming World Cup.

5. Rapid-Fire Headlines (Health & Business) (26:45–29:45)

Gene Therapy Breakthrough for Huntington’s Disease

• First successful treatment in a trial: slowed progression by 75% over three years.
• Big hope for similar single-gene disorders (sickle cell, ALS).
• Unicure stock soars 250% on the news.

Ben Stiller Launches “Stiller’s Soda”

• Nostalgic, low-sugar, vitamin-fortified soda in root beer, lemon/lime, and Shirley Temple.
• Neal: “It’s refreshing to see a soda that’s just soda and not supposed to heal your gut or save the world…” (28:45)
• Toby: “Stillers...sounds like a classic Coca-Cola brand. Pass me the Stillers over here...And I want to imagine that he thought, I sound like a soda. Let me make a soda. And he’s going for it. So I’m rooting for you, Stiller.” (29:26)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Neal on tariff speculation:
  "There really is a market for anything and everything." (04:13)

• Toby on AI productivity:
  "AI is supposed to be making people more productive, not less. What is going on here?" (09:26)

• Neal on Instagram’s reinvention:
  "Instagram's rise will go down in business history. Back in 2012, Facebook bought the startup...for $1 billion...these days, it's considered one of the savviest acquisitions ever." (17:45)

• Toby on the Iowa soybean crisis:
  "We've built our entire production system around China's demand. If that disappears, it's hard to replace." (13:15, quoting an Iowa State economist)

• Neal on Broadway’s decline:
  "There are 525,600 reasons to be worried...the economics of Broadway just aren't adding up." (19:47)

Timestamps for Significant Segments

• 02:42 — Wall St. bets on tariff refund claims
• 07:58 — AI "workslop" and its organizational costs
• 11:29 — China’s soybean snub and US farm fallout
• 17:45 — Instagram’s 3 billion users & product evolution
• 19:47 — Broadway’s unprofitable season
• 22:33 — Star-studded plays are more profitable
• 23:19 — Ryder Cup boosts Airbnb earnings on Long Island
• 26:45 — Gene therapy breakthrough for Huntington’s Disease
• 27:52 — Ben Stiller’s soda venture

Summary

This episode walks listeners through the surprising creation of a financial market for tariff refund rights, warns about AI-generated “workslop” becoming a drag on productivity and reputation, and tracks the ripple effects of China’s trade war maneuvering on American soybean farmers. Neil’s Numbers segment provides three case studies in adaptation, struggle, and windfalls — from Instagram’s reinvention, to the collapse of the Broadway business model, to homeowners’ sudden Airbnb riches around mega-events. The show closes with hopeful news in gene therapy and a left-field celebrity entrepreneurship effort. With wry quips, clear explanations, and tight pacing, Neal and Toby ensure listeners walk away both informed and entertained.