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Wall Street Brings Back Bigger Bonuses & Trouble in Mega-City Neom Paradise?
00:30:39
Bonuses are so back in Wall Street & Saudi Arabia’s Neom has a setback
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- [00:01]
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- [00:24]
Neal Freyman
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:27]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:28]
Neal Freyman
Today, now's a good time to get back in touch with your friends. About to be rolling in end of year bonuses.
- [00:35]
Toby Howell
Then Saudi Arabia's mega city in the desert. Neom just lost its CEO and could be in trouble. It's Wednesday, November 13th. Let's ride.
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Neal Freyman
I've got some really exciting news to share. It's a project a bunch of us have been working on for months. Morning Brew is releasing a book, a crossword puzzle book. In fact, as Brew readers know, several days of the week we publish a crossword at the end of our daily newslet. And it's consistently among the most popular pieces of content anywhere across the company. We've been blessed to have two crossword constructors, Jack and Mary, who make these fun, inventive puzzles you can't find anywhere else. So we decided to compile 101 of those crosswords along with some never before seen ones into a physical book. If you have a crossword lover in your family, I can't think of a better gift for the holidays. I'm going to buy 10 myself for all the puzzlers in my life.
- [01:32]
Toby Howell
This book is awesome. One thing you didn't call out is that Neil, you are the editor of this book and one fun feature is that you did every puzzle in the book. I can attest I saw you scribbling away and recorded your time. So there is a little thing on each page that shows Neil's time. So if you're competitive and you want to see if your crossword medal can stand up to Neil's crossword medal, try and beat them. If you are competitive and you want to get in on this and take on Neal, you can preorder the book@shop.morning brew.com Again, the holidays are coming up. This is such an easy gift. So take on Neil and check out Shop Dot Morning Broadcom to check out the Morning Brew crossword book. Now a word from our sponsor, Sage. Not the herb, but the platform built for CFOs to make your life easier. Neil, Every once in a while some technology comes around that transforms an industry.
- [02:22]
Neal Freyman
The iPhone from Apple, the Model 3 from Tesla, the beefy seven layer burrito from Taco Bell. There are disruptors all around us and.
- [02:29]
Toby Howell
Sage is that force in the finance world. If you are a cfo, you need to be taking advantage of technology's transformative impact on finance.
- [02:37]
Neal Freyman
A platform like Sage has shifted CFOs from being the person that handles money in a business to insightful and strategic advisors and more importantly, growth drivers.
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Toby Howell
Did you really compare a beefy seven layer burrito to Sage's AI, automation and outlier detection?
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Neal Freyman
Yes, I did and I stand by it. If you're a financial leader at your company, check out sage today at sage.com/morning brew that sage.com/morning brew Like a beautiful.
- [03:04]
Toby Howell
Sourdough loaf in the proving drawer, bonuses on Wall street are set to rise across the industry for the first time since 2021. Investment bankers, traders and wealth managers, basically anyone who might rock a rolly in a Patagonia vest to work, all had above average years thanks to an increase in corporate deal making and a stock market run up. According to an analysis by Johnson Associates, Every single business area is expected to see pay jumps this year, except for real estate investing in retail and commercial banking now. Bonuses are still not back to the frenzied heights of 2021 when deal volume exploded, spacs became a thing and companies were going public left and right. But it's clear that Wall street is emerging from the muted spell over the past two years where activity and bonuses actually fell.
- [03:49]
Neal Freyman
The star of this year's show is debt underwriters, the bankers who work on those deals where corporations need to or raise new debt. It may not be the sexiest role on Wall street, but this year it will be the most lucrative. Debt underwriters are expected to collect bonuses that are anywhere from 25% to 35% higher than last year. Big picture 2024. Bonuses are set to rise for nearly every subset of the finance industry, making it the second biggest end of year windfall for bankers in the last five years. And easing interest rates in a thawing M and A market mean that 2025 could be even bigger.
- [04:25]
Toby Howell
Yeah, we are coming off of a weird time for investment bankers. The last two years were kind of muted. There wasn't a lot of things going on. The IPO market got very clogged up. We weren't seeing any of these big M and A deals. But as the interest rates have started to thaw, you have started to see more of these mergers popping up. I Mean some that we've talked about on the show are the, the pending merger between Telenova snack business and its sale to Mars, which is a $36 billion deal. We've talked about the private credit market as well. Boeing just raised a huge amount of debt to try to pull itself out of its nosedive. That is something that bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, all these big investment banks are getting in on. So in taking fees from. So we are starting to see a thawing. We're starting to see more of these companies being more active really across M and A, across IPO market and across just the corporate or private credit market as well. So that is why you're seeing some of these increase in bonuses after two years of it not increasing and actually going down.
- [05:28]
Neal Freyman
No, I mean, but if that Mars deal comes to pass, that's so much money for banks. Goldman Sachs is set to make $90 million on that deal if it should happen. So that's how much the M and A market means to these banks. Let's talk about just the amount of bonuses that these Wall Streeters get because it is a large chunk of their pay. The average bonus last year on Wall street was $176,500 and the average Wall street salary total was 471,370. That's nearly five times the average of the annual of the New Yorkers average salary. But you can see that's like a pretty big chunk. So it is a big deal when these end of year bonuses come through. And a lot of what happens on Wall street drives the larger New York economy as well.
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Toby Howell
Right, let's talk about that because I can hear some people rolling their eyes right now saying like, oh, the world's tiniest violins bonuses were down the last two years. But it does impact New York City and New York State's economy as a whole. The industry accounted for around $28 billion in state tax revenue, which is over a quarter of the state's entire collections last year. And then if you zoom in on the city level, IT accounted for 5.5.4 billion in city tax revenue. So as bonuses go, if they go down, that's less tax revenue for the city, which they less tax revenue for them to spend on public works and the transportation authority and all sorts of things. It does filter down through the economy. So even though no one is that sad, if bonuses are going from the six figure range to the lower six figure range, it still does have broader impacts.
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Neal Freyman
And going forward, I Think there's a lot of optimism around the banking sector at the end of this year and next year as well. We've talked about interest rates going down anytime there's stock market volatility is also good for their trading divisions. It looks like the IPO market, which has been frozen over for the past two years, is starting to get going again. We talked about M and A as well, and that's been reflected in the stock prices at these banks. I mean, there's five big Wall street banks, JPMorgan Chase, bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. All of those share prices have increased by 35% or more over the last year and they've only skyrocketed since the election last Tuesday. And optimism that there could be more deregulation around the financial sector.
- [07:48]
Toby Howell
The only ugly stepchild that we should mention. I mentioned it in the intro to the story. But retail and commercial bankers are expected to see smaller end of year bonuses. That's because in the higher rate atmosphere over the last couple of years, loan demand has just really been weaker. And then commercial real estate has just been an absolute disaster recently. The office sector has just been continuing to slop. People haven't returned to office in the same amount since pre Covid day. So that's why bonuses are flat on the year. So there are still some weak points, but they are kind of what you'd expect. Commercial office real estate has been just a tough, tough business to be in.
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Neal Freyman
The manufacturing conglomerate Honeywell is like LeBron James on the Lakers, an aging superstar who represents the last holdout of a bygone era. But it's time may be running out, and it won't be JJ Redick putting it out to pasture. Yesterday, activist investor Elliot Management said it has built a giant $5 billion stake in Honeywell and is urging the sprawling company to split up into two distinct businesses. It's the biggest single bet ever by Elliot, which has also taken on corporate giants like Southwest Airlines and Starbucks by acquiring a boatload of shares and pushing for changes. Honeywell might be the biggest company you interact with on a daily basis but never really think about. Valued at $150 billion, it makes everything from airplane cockpits to tools for warehouses to home thermostats. And that might be the problem. Elliott thinks this mashup of disparate businesses, the hallmark of the conglomerate model, is inefficient and weighing down the share price. So it wants to split it into two separate companies, the aerospace division and automation. If it succeeds in forcing a Breakup of Honeywell. It could mean the end of one of the few American conglomerates left standing.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, the writing has been on the wall for conglomerates for years now. I mean, one of the most famous ones, ge, which was one of the biggest companies in the world in the 80s and 90s, is now broken up into two separate businesses.
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Neal Freyman
Three.
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Toby Howell
Three separate businesses. The thinking behind these splits is that the. The belief is that bloat drags down performance. It used to be conglomerates could combine backs, office, back offices, and just increase efficiencies that way. But now investors are increasingly wanting you to shave off these businesses, become a little bit more focused, and they think that's the pathway to better return. So GE has split up Johnson and Johnson has split up logs. Kellogg's like, you can go down the line. What used to be the era of conglomerates is now becoming the era of specialized companies.
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Neal Freyman
Right. And let's talk a little bit about what's happening at Honeywell specifically. Elliott says that their share price has lagged. It's rose. It's risen 12% since the start of the year compared to the S&P's 26% growth. It has this aerosase aerospace business, which drives 40% of the revenue that's growing really fast. And then it has this automation business where they provide tools to warehouses and buildings. And that has been lagging. So it thinks that, that that section has been a drag on the overall share price. So it says, why don't we follow the path of the other conglomerates that have broken up? GE has unlocked $200 billion in shareholder value since it split up. Let's get more focus, let's get more streamlined. And that's its argument. And it's saying that there's a lot of examples of conglomerates that have broken up in the last five years to point to in saying this is a good idea.
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Toby Howell
I also found a conglomerate that does work, though. Ian is an industrial conglomerate that does compete on a lot of the same industries that Honeywell does. It has done very well since 2016 is up 400% compared to Honeywell's more muted 78% growth. And the way that it did that is via planting and pruning, as this Bloomberg article described it. They sold businesses valued at $5 billion that had annual sales growth of two and a half percent, profit margins of 12%. They replaced those businesses with acquisitions worth $7 billion, annual sales growth of 7% and 27% margins. That's the planting. The other part was the pruning. So you do have to be very cognizant of the companies you're bringing into your portfolio and the companies that maybe you are offloading as well. So they kind of do work, but you need to treat them like a garden. You can't let one business kind of sprawl over and assume other businesses. But you also can't let the underperforming businesses kind of take away nutrients and oxygen from the good businesses. So I do think there is a world where conglomerates can work, but there are plenty of examples of instances where breaking them up does lead to better shareholder.
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Neal Freyman
Would you say Amazon is a conglomerate?
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Toby Howell
I mean I don't know because they don't do.
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Neal Freyman
Cloud services to automated driving and E commerce. There's very disparate businesses. It kind of has the hall and it does, it has a movie division and a TV division. It's very much the hallmark of a, of a modern day conglomerate.
- [12:35]
Toby Howell
I guess they just don't, they're not as active in the M and A space. Like they don't buy that many companies. Most of it, yeah, like AWS is homegrown. Maybe someone who works at Amazon tell us if you think that you self identify as a conglomerate, there is trouble in paradise if your version of paradise is a mega city in the desert. Neom, the futuristic project currently under construction in the middle of the Saudi Arabian desert, lost its CEO Nadmi Al Nassr yesterday in a surprise exit, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. While the report didn't cite a specific reason for his departure, NEOM has been running into delays and cost overruns for years now. It turns out that it is really freaking hard to build a giant futuristic city in the desert. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the brainchild behind turning Barren sand into the world's largest construction project. NEOM was meant to be anchored by two mirrored skyscrapers dubbed the Line, stretching 106 miles, complete with hidden trains, mountain ski resorts and 9 million residents. But the project has repeatedly been downside from that 100 mile vision. First to 10 miles and later to just one and a half miles in length, which is still the biggest building in the world. But Nasser is now out in the future of the project is looking a little shaky. Neal.
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Neal Freyman
Yeah, there has been a lot of warning signs that this project was running into many delays, engineering challenges and I guess that's what comes with trying to build a mega city on a, on a piece of land the size of Massachusetts. These guys have bragged about how big their construction project won. Recently an official said that they currently are using one fifth of all of the steel produced in the world. So something of this size, it's hard to actually pull off. As we're seeing. There's been a bunch of executive departures recently as well as, you know, capped off by, by the CEO, the CEO leaving yesterday. But clearly all is not well in Neom. And it comes at a very critical time because Saudi Arabia is spending over $1 trillion not just on neon, but on all of these other initiatives to transform its economy away from fossil fuels and oil and natural gas into a modern economy that relies on things like entertainment and tech and other forms of innovation. So this is, and this is the centerpiece of the plan. So if this doesn't go well, then the entire transformation is certainly on rocky footing.
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Toby Howell
Part of that issue is exactly what you said. The price tag has just gone exponential. In 2017, when this project was first announced, they slapped a $500 billion price tag on it. The cost of the line alone, which is just one part of the project, is probably going to be well over $2 trillion based on estimates. And Saudi Arabia thought that they could fund most of this on their own, but they also expected foreign money to come in and help out with some of the costs. That foreign money has really not shown up very well because it is extremely risky to put money into a development that is literally being constructed in the desert. And so that is the issue that Saudi Arabia is looking at kind of their checkbook and saying, wait a second, even we can't afford this right now. So maybe that is one of the reason too why some of the project is facing these headwinds. Up next, let's talk Amazon smart glasses.
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Neal Freyman
It's almost time to break out the lights, wreaths and jingling bells.
- [15:52]
Toby Howell
And with Sonos, you'll be able to hear the crystal clear, highest quality sound for all the festive music and movies.
- [15:59]
Neal Freyman
This holiday season, Sonos is the perfect gif for both yourself and your family and friends. Whether you're in charge of the holiday party or in search of a gift that will really impress the in laws, Sonos has got you covered.
- [16:11]
Toby Howell
Sonos products look just as beautiful as they sound and you can mix and match their products to build your very own sound system.
- [16:17]
Neal Freyman
Deck your halls with a Sonos smart speaker and enjoy the cinematic sound right from your couch.
- [16:23]
Toby Howell
Sonos has great gifts for everyone on your list. Visit sonos.com brew to wrap up your holiday shopping. That is sonos.com brew Imagine you wake up one day and a huge solar flare adds an extra hour to each day. Or maybe your team will double in size overnight. Or there'll be a global paperclip shortage. The truth is, no one knows what's around the corner.
- [16:47]
Neal Freyman
Anything can change the world of work, and those changes can be due to factors that are internal, external or global.
- [16:54]
Toby Howell
From HR to payroll and benefits, ADP designs forward thinking solutions to take on the next anything. That means businesses can prepare to tackle whatever transforms the world of work next.
- [17:05]
Neal Freyman
Because no matter how determined you are to thrive in a constantly changing landscape, it's impossible to prepare for any everything on your own. ADPs HR solutions help businesses of all size manage recruiting, onboarding, payroll and more so you can stay focused on the future.
- [17:20]
Toby Howell
Learn more@adp.com that's adp.com.
- [17:27]
Neal Freyman
Amazon might have figured out a way to get you your packages even faster. According to Reuters, the company is working on a project that would equip its delivery drivers with smart glasses that more easily guide them right to your door. The glasses would contain a small embedded screen that provide drivers with turn by turn navigation, helping them determine things like which direction to go after getting off an elevator and even avoiding the belligerent dog in your neighborhood. Amazon hopes that the high tech eyewear could shave seconds off delivery times. But when you're doing as much volume as Amazon drivers Visit more than 100 customers per shift, those seconds can add up quickly. And Amazon doesn't need any glasses to see the competition its biggest rival, Walmart. Walmart has been beefing up its delivery arm, cutting prices and offering more incentives to delivery drivers ahead of the holiday shopping season. Toby these glasses appear to be years out still if they get used at all. But it's another interesting use case for what appears to be a rapidly growing category.
- [18:25]
Toby Howell
You can roll your eyes a little bit about Amazon equipping their delivery drivers with like these Jarvis esque glasses that are giving you turn by turn navigation. But I read some articles written by former delivery drivers and they said one of the worst parts of the of the job is you walk into a complex, you can't find the elevator, it's like a labyrinth in front of you. So having those turn by turn navigation would be very helpful. That being said, there are a lot of issues and challenges with doing that. Mapping the internal hallways or the streets in front of of residences is very difficult. It's not like Google Maps where you can just drive a car down and get street view. You have to know the internal intricacies of actual building complexes so that is one aspect that has been challenging. Plus they're just running into the same issues that a lot of these glasses manufacturers run into. One is battery life. Trying to get glasses to last an entire eight hour shift is an issue. Then also they could just be heavy and ugly, which is something drivers don't want to deal with either.
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Neal Freyman
And what Amazon is trying to solve is what's known as this last mile of delivery. Even though it's the last mile it is. It accounts for half of all of the costs associated with delivery. Just sending something on a truck across a highway to a warehouse, super easy, super cheap. But getting it from that warehouse to someone's door, extremely expensive, extremely time incentive. So if they can solve that and really shave off seconds, then that can really boost their business. And they're facing definitely intense competition from Wal Mart. But let's talk about the glasses segment in general because Amazon, you said there's a lot of technical challenges involved in this, but seems like pretty much every big tech company is throwing their hat in the ring with this. Probably the most successful one is Metta with their Metta Ray Ban. They sell it for about $300 and that is, you know, every single earnings call Zuck is talking about how much they're selling. That has been hugely successful. Amazon does have smart glasses, which you wouldn't know about because they don't sell. They sold they called Echo frames and I guess this is what these glasses would be based on those particular frames. But they sell less than 10,000 of them. Apple is apparently going to try to introduce smart glasses as well. Snap also has some, I would say Snap and Metta are the leaders and these other ones are all playing catch up. But Amazon's an interesting place because it's doing it in the enterprise market for its workers and not necessarily for its consumers because consumers don't want it. At the point at this moment, I.
- [20:49]
Toby Howell
Had no idea that Amazon Echo frames were a thing at all. But I do think it is interesting to see the different explorations, the different use cases for smart glasses. Metta clearly sees it as one a tool for capturing content and has a camera that you can film what you're seeing in front of you. But also they have tools to interact with the world around you. They embedded it with their AI. So you can ask Metta like what am I looking at right now? But that enterprise use case you haven't seen from a ton of companies. So I do think Amazon solving, they just want to solve that last mile of delivery like it's everyone is Trying it, they've tried. They've thrown drones at it, they've thrown autonomous vehicles at it. What you need is just a quicker way to do it. So I do think that they will invest a decent amount of resources into trying to bring this to reality because the upside is just so much.
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Neal Freyman
Well, I'll tell you where you've seen these enterprise use cases before and it's where smart glasses go to die. Because when they don't work for the consumer market, all these companies pivot them to enterprise and trying to sell them to companies. I mean, if you think of things like Google Glass, Magic Leaf, Microsoft, Hololens, all of those tried to be consumer facing products. And when that didn't work out, they said, okay, we'll sell them to companies. And so those things you don't hear about anymore because they are not viable businesses. So Amazon, starting with enterprise, they always do that though. That's their bread and butter. So we'll see if Amazon can do it. But maybe in a few years you'll see your delivery driver being all bespackled and, you know, looking like a cyborg a little bit. All right, let's spread to the finish with some final headlines. First it was a meme, then it was a cryptocurrency. Now it's an unofficial government program. Yesterday, President elect Trump announced the creation of doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, which will be led by Elon Musk and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The goal of doge, according to Trump, is to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure federal agencies. Just to be clear, this is not an official government department. And Trump said DOGE would operate and provide advice from outside of the government. Toby, this has been a project pushed by Musk for months, especially the name. It points to his influence with the new administration.
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Toby Howell
It really does. Dogecoin, which has nothing to do with this Department of Government Efficiency other than sharing the same acronym name, surged 20 to 30% after the news. As of this morning, Dogecoin has a market cap of $55 billion. Ford has a market cap of $44 billion. So yes, not yet clear if this will exist within the federal government or outside. An official government agency can only be created with an act of Congress. So it does look like it will be outside. But just a funny timeline that we live in that a cryptocurrency named after a dog is surging because a organization was named a similar name, 23andMe is more like 14 and me. After the struggling DNA testing company laid off roughly 40% of its staff, a CEO Ann Wojcicki works to right the ship on her money losing business. As part of the restructuring, the company is closing its drug development arm, which was supposed to be the very thing that was going to save the business. But this business is not in good shape right now. Last last quarter revenue declined 12% to 44 million while net losses hit 59 million. Neal, is this the last we see of 23 and me?
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Neal Freyman
There certainly has been shrinking across the board. They used to 800 employees, now they have 300. They used to have a share market value of 5.8 billion. Now that's down to 150 million. They did warn that they could go to out of business if they don't raise cash. So that will be key to see if 23andMe doesn't become, in your terms, zero and me. But it has been a big downfall for this company that was once very high flying, endorsed by celebrities, seen as the toast of Silicon Valley and now we're here. Remember the hype lunchables experiment in schools? Yeah, it didn't work. Kraft Heinz said it would suspend its program offering Lunchables to schools this year, pausing a controversial initiative that faced pushback from child nutrition advocates and consumer watchdogs. The concept which was introduced last year was simple enough. By putting Lunchables in front of hungry kids, the billion dollar brand would gain massive exposure to a younger generation, which could drive out of school sales too. But the demand just wasn't there for the bet to pay off. Kraft Heinz said telly, what went wrong here?
- [25:08]
Toby Howell
I mean it was always a little unpopular because there was some opposition from parents, from child nutrition advocates who said do we really want our kids eating this processed meat and cheese? But the company did make some changes to its lunchables. They reduced saturated fat, they added some proteins, they added some whole grains as well to try to make these lunchables healthier. It just never quite caught on in the way that it seemed like. I think this was very much lauded in the beginning, like you were getting your lunchables in front of this new crop of customers, introducing them to school children around the country. But for whatever reason, it just didn't work. Also, we have to mention the looming presence of lunchly, which is Mr. Beast, Logan Paul and KSI's brands. These, this influencer launch Lunchables competitor Lunch Li. Any bad news for Lunchables is technically good news for Lunchley. I don't see them sliding in for as a like for like replacement. But anytime you see your your main legacy competitor struggling, it probably does mean that market share could be sending your way. So a bad news for Lunchables is good news for Lunchley. Finally, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is dusting off his old set of golf clubs in the back of his garage, not to get his handicap down, but to sharpen up his game ahead of Donald Trump's presidency. Trump is obviously a huge golfer and Yoon Suk believes that the best way to align himself with the USA's interests is to strike one 300 yards down the middle of the fairway. For our countries to continue our conversations, our president also needs to hit the ball properly, an anonymous official said about their president's golf practice. And to that I say me flipping too.
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Neal Freyman
This is not a joke because there's, there's been a really tight relationship during Trump's last presidency with Shinzo Abe, who was the prime Minister of Japan, who was who was assassinated. Abe and Trump developed a very, very close relationship because they both, both loved golf. Abe gave him gold plated golf clubs on his first visit to the White House. So this is a big deal. This is golf diplomacy. I mean we talked about golf, you know, being a big part of business and making business deals. Maybe not anymore, but it used to be. But at least for the Trump presidency, knowing your way around a golf course, knowing how to fix your divot is really important to getting in good graces with him. And only, you know, global diplomacy is at stake.
- [27:31]
Toby Howell
I thought the aides are saying we just need our president to hit the ball squarely, just properly, not embarrass himself. And I mean I think a lot of us can empathize with us even though we don't have global diplomacy on the Rhine, everyone just wants to make good contact.
- [27:45]
Neal Freyman
That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your day with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. Toby, you're out for the next two days, so safe travels. We will miss you. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you find yourself learning a lot from this podcast, share it with a friend, family member or colleague who could use a hit of business news in the morning. Toby, who should our listeners spread the word to today?
- [28:08]
Toby Howell
This one is an easy one. Neal, I want you to share this pod with the Crow crossword in your life. I know you have one, we all have one, so share the spot so they can check out the Brew book.
- [28:18]
Neal Freyman
Of crosswords@shop.morning brew.com which is on preorder for the first time yesterday. So snag your copy now. You'll you're guaranteed to get it before the holidays. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenow Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio, hair and makeup has been hitting the range. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [28:45]
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.