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What Deportation Means for the Economy & Mattel's 'Wicked' Mistake on Toy Packaging
00:32:01
Economists predict the impact of mass deportation & Mattel apologizes for a toy debacle
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This episode is brought to you by United Airlines.
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They're an airline that cares about your travels as much as you do.
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Change the way you fly.
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Book your next trip today@united.com Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, the major economic implications of Trump's mass deportation plan.
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Then the toy company Mattel made a wicked mistake on the packaging for some wicked dolls. It's selling. It's Tuesday, November 12th. Let's ride.
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Toby. Yesterday marked 50 days left of 2024. First of all, how are your resolutions going? And any items you want to check off your to do list before the year is up?
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I got a long to do list. Actually, just two items. One, get my music listening habits in order. Spotify wrapped comes out November 29th and right now all I have is Hans Zimmer soundtracks. Also, a quick plug to listen to NBD as many times as possible between now and November 29th. So you're in our 1% of fans. But number two, I was just thinking about the skills I could feasibly learn before the end of the year. We got less than 50 days left. I was thinking juggling feels a little too easy. Maybe I've never been able to. Easy?
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That's a little cocky.
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Well, I don't know. You can.
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I can juggle. 3.
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How long does it take to learn how to juggle?
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Not that long.
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Okay, so maybe that's two weeks.
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I just set like a foot set aside a Saturday, it's rainy and cold. Learn how to juggle.
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Well, I was thinking I would just make this a nice audience engagement thing. What should I learn before the end of the year? I will try to follow through on if you give me a skill to learn. Maybe it's, you know, basket weaving. Maybe it is juggling. Whatever it is, please email me and I'll try to learn this skill before the end of the year.
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B
How about baking? So then you can bring in stuff for us here at the office.
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Oh, always with a little self interest. Baking is easy. I can already bake. What do you want? Just tell me. I'll make you. I'll make you some chocolate chip cookies. Now a word from our sponsor, Sage. Not the herb, but the platform built for CFOs to make your life easier.
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If you're a finance professional, you're always walking a tightrope. You want to get in the weeds and make sure you're up to date on things like bill pay. But you also want to see the big picture so you can make sure your company is on the right strategic path.
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If you're a financial leader at your company, check out sage today@sage.com morning brew that's sage.com morning brew yesterday, President elect.
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Trump selected anti illegal immigration hardliner Tom Homan to become his administration's border czar, showing that he's serious about carrying out his signature campaign promise to enact the largest mass deportation campaign in American history to remove criminals from the country. Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ice, said at a conference earlier this year that, quote, if you're here illegally, you better be looking over your shoulder. Homan has vowed to run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen. If such a deportation of undocumented immigrants takes place, it could have profound effects for the US Economy, particularly in structures like construction, agriculture, housing and caregiving, where many of them work. For instance, 14% of construction workers in the US are undocumented, according to the advocacy group American Immigration Council. Economists warn that mass deportation on this scale, Trump has promised, could cause labor shortages, delayed projects, higher consumer prices, and slower growth.
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We don't have an exact number on how many undocumented immigrants are living or working in the United States. One analysis from the left leaning center for American Progress estimates that there are 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working. The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan organization, offers a lower estimate of around 8 million people, but all agree that there are millions of undocumented people in the labor force working at companies that rely on them and that mass deportation could cause significant economic upheaval.
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Look, let's talk about how we got here. So this was a central theme of the Trump and broader Republican campaigns, that immigration was a big problem in the US for things like crime and economic issues like housing prices. They won convincingly, the Electoral college popular vote, the Senate, and it's looking like the House. And they say now they have a broad mandate to enact those plans to curb immigration. They say it's what the people want. A lot of analysis and economists have come out since those campaign promises were first introduced and saying, look, here's what might happen to the US Economy because it looks like while you said we don't exactly have an estimate, we think that about 5% of the total U.S. workforce are unauthorized immigrants. And many studies have put out what would be the economic hit because many of them are working. If they were to be deported, a lot of companies would be facing widespread labor shortages. And there could be major implications. One study that was published in the University of New Hampshire in August said that a deportation program on the scale that Trump has promised, which would ultimately deport 11 to 13 million people, would reduce the nation's gross domestic product, our GDP, by anywhere from 2.6% to 6.2%. And that would amount to an economic hit of anywhere between 711 billion and 1.7 trillion. And again, this would not hit all sectors equally. There are certain sectors that if you go down the line, it would be a much more disproportionate impact.
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Yeah, construction and housing is a big issue. Two industries do rely pretty heavily on undocumented immigrants. According to the American Immigration Council, their research shows that the construction industry would lose 1 in 8 workers that you mentioned that 14% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented. Another industry that would take a major hit is farm workers as well. The USDA actually estimated back in 2018 that 41% of farmworkers are undocumented. That's the most recent figure available. So you're talking about hits the GDP in the potential of trillions here. I mean, that New Hampshire study estimated literally it could cost $1 trillion. So there are certain industries that just would be more effective. It is something that has a major impact on the economy of the United States.
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Yeah, economists like to talk about something called 3D jobs. And those are dirty, dangerous, and demanding work. There's those 3Ds, which are largely occupied by undocumented immigrants. And what they say in their research through decades of study is that it's not a like, for, like, if you like, native bor. Americans won't just move into these jobs should these. These migrants get deported. And therefore, that leads to massive labor shortages. I mean, go back to 2011. Georgia passed a strict immigration law.
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A lot.
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They lost a lot of workers in their peach, vegetable, fruit, fruit industries that there's estimates by the Georgia Agribusiness Council that there was all of these unpicked produce that was left on the vine because people just weren't there to pick them. And those costs ballooned into $1 billion. Go to Idaho and the dairy industry. There's estimates that 89% of the dairy industry in Idaho are foreign born. Nationally that number may be closer to 50%. So widespread impacts from anywhere from fruits and vegetables to dairy. And I also want to go back to housing and construction because according to Chad Prinke, he was the CEO of a consulting firm, well Built Construction Consulting, he said there's going to be incredible delays in the building specifically of single family and multifamily construction homes. He said the average 18 month project could take five years to complete because of labor shortages. Said it would be different all over the country. Two difference between Boston and Austin, Texas, for example. Prinky said in Austin, it would basically shut down every project.
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And just to zoom out, here we are emerging out of the COVID 19 pandemic where it finally seemed like supply and demand in terms of the amount of workers and the demand that that companies had for those workers was finally equalizing. If this deportation plan does go to plan, we're looking at less workers now, which would force wages upwards, which. And that ripples through the entire economy, the entire supply chain, everything from grocery stores to, you know, sporting goods stores, you're going to see prices going up as well. So when we talk about just an economy wide implications of this, we are talking truly across the entire swath of the economy. The United Nations Climate Summit kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan yesterday. But attending a conference about how the earth is getting hot has proved to be a not so hot ticket. Nearly 200 nations are coming together at the 29th Conference of the Parties, aka COP 29. As the UN meeting of the minds creeps up on three decades of gathering to try and figure out ways to mitigate the worst of global warming. But Joe Biden opted to skip and send a delegate instead, as did top leaders from China, India, France, Germany, Brazil and the EU. In total, 48 fewer heads of state are addressing COP 29 than last year. Part of this year's tepid turnout might tie back to last year's frustration when talks stopped short of calling for an international plan to reduce fossil fuels by replacing phrases like phase out with more lenient suggestions and language. Plus, this year's decision to host the summit in Azerbaijan, a petro state who derives 60% of its income from fossil fuels, might also have some feeling pessimistic. But this year the theme of the meeting is Finance cop as the UN tries to estimate the funding needed to fight climate change. But figuring out who pays and how much is proving to be quite contentious.
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It is because the amount of money that the UN wants richer countries that have already been transitioning to renewables bulls but have, you know, been the source of the large amount of the emissions that have ever been produced in the world could amount to more than $1 trillion. We've thrown around that trillion stat a lot this show already. One, they did, they did manage to get an agreement actually yesterday at the start on a global carbon market which basically establishes a financial market for carbon credits. So if you are a country that's doing well and you're getting a lot of your energy from wind and sol nuclear, then you can sell credits to, you can make money by selling credits to less developed countries that have, that are still in the process of transitioning over to, to, to renewables. So that was kind of a big win. No one was really, as you mentioned, no one's really expecting much to come out of this conference, but it looks like they already got, you know, some things in motion on the first day.
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So I did mention that one of the big things at this year's conference is trying to get the developed countries to pay to help subsidize undeveloped countries in their fight against climate change as well. There was this $100 billion pledge that was rolled out actually decades ago at this point where they were supposed to contribute $100 billion to a climate related fund. One, that number looks kind of woefully small at this point. But two new targets have been tossed around because when that initial number was decided upon, nations like China as well as most of the Middle east countries were not considered developed under the UN's guidelines. And so now people are saying, wait a second, we need to drop new regulations that include China, include Saudi Arabia, who are not obliged to contribute to this fund. We're not obliged to lead on finance in years past. So now they're saying we need one, a lot more money and two, we need these countries that have come to the forefront of economic kind of power in the last decades to start contributing as well.
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And of course there is a major overhang, a major shadow, which was the election in the United States. Donald Trump has pledged to roll back a lot of environmental regulations that have been passed over the over the past four years. He has vowed to remove the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, which was reached at the COP in 2015. Yesterday he made his EPA pick who is the former New York representative Lee Zeldin. And Lee Zeldin has said he wants to roll back things like tailpipe regulations for vehicles, rules that slash power plants emissions. So there appears to be a broader rollback and a backing away from climate initiatives that are going on in the United States. And the United States being the world's largest economy kind of sets the stage for the rest of the world when it comes to this. So the, the people there from the Biden administration are saying we're not backing down from, you know, maybe climate is going to be on the back burner for the next four years, but this is a longer haul that the US Is absolutely committed to. Ahead of its premiere later this month, Wicked has staged an all out marketing blitz that puts Glinda's materialism to shame. But one of its brand collaborations is not going over so well with the parents. Sunday night the toy company Mattel apologized after one of its dolls tied to Wicked was found to contain a misprint on the packaging. Instead of writing the URL wicked movie.com which directs to the movie website, it had left out the word movie. And that is a big problem because that's a link to a porn company's website. Mattel said it deeply regrets the unfortunate error and is taking immediate action to remedy this. It didn't say how many dolls were slapped with the X rated packaging or whether it was recalling the product, but a search on Target and Amazon listed the item as unavailable. But God bless capitalism. People who bought a doll with the now infamous packaging are listing them on eBay with one seller offloading two for $99 apiece, more than double the original price tag. Toby this is even more embarrassing than when I sang for good at my high school graduation.
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Oh you nailed that. Neil. This is especially embarrassing because Wicked is kind of going the Barbie route when it comes to merch for this movie. They are going all out. You are seeing stores plastered with pink and green. You can find Elphaba squishmallows. You can find Stanley cups with the green gradient. I even saw pimple patches that had the, you know, Elphaba hat on. One of the weirdest ones was a Wal Mart was selling this Mac and cheese container that was either pink or green depending on which kind of thing you got. Which I don't want my Mac and cheese to be pink or green at any. That's just not an appealing color to me. But I do think that it shows that they are trying to turn this into a big box office temple of the Barbie ilk. Where you can just have these recognizable characters, these recognizable colors and just going top to bottom across all retail shelves plastered and pink and green.
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And they think they can because Wicked, ever since it premiered in 2003 and Little Flex here, I saw the original cast that year. Thank you, mom, for taking us. That is one of the biggest Broadway shows, most popular, bestselling of all time. It's generated more than $1.67 billion in ticket sales only at the Gershwin Theater. And that's not counting all of the other national tours as well. More than 14.5 million people have bought tickets to see the show in the last 21 years. So this is an interesting bet on a musical where that hasn't been kind in the box office in recent years. There have been some major flops and they're just hoping Wicked can defy, if you will, the gravity of the, of the broader movie musical market, which has seen some downturn.
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I will. All right. Yeah. Dear Evan Hansen, Mean Girls musical. Those have been two notable flops recently. This movie needs to do well because it is has $160 million budget. That is Marvel superhero territory we're talking about right now. One thing that I do want to point out is Mattel is liking this current kind of crop of toys because not only does it have Wicked merch coming out, which hopefully can solve the packaging issue that we started this story with, but it also has Moana 2 dropping. So those are two absolute powerhouses in the toy industry. So Mattel is kind of sitting back and saying we're looking at a good Q4 here. Up next, it is Toby's Trends Time. Imagine you wake up one day and a huge solar flare adds an extra hour to each day. Or maybe your team will double in size overnight. Or there'll be a global paperclip shortage. The truth is, no one knows what's around the corner.
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Anything can change the world of work. And those changes can be due to factors that are internal, external, or global.
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From HR to payroll and benefits. ADP designs forward thinking solutions to take on the next anything. That means businesses can prepare to tackle whatever transforms the world of work next.
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Because no matter how determined you are to thrive in a constantly changing landscape, it's impossible to prepare for everything on your own. ADPs HR solutions help businesses of all size manage recruiting, onboarding, payroll, and more so you can stay focused on the future.
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Learn more@adp.com that's adp.com in the noisy.
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World of advertising, it's easy to get lost in the crowd. If your brand's message isn't perfectly targeted at your ideal audience, it'll fade into the background. The good news is LinkedIn ads can fine tune your B2B campaigns and help them end up in front of the right people.
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LinkedIn ads helps you reach the professionals most likely to connect with your ads. With LinkedIn's capabilities, you can target your ideal audience by job title, industry, company and more.
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Its targeting and measurement tools have helped B2B tech companies generate two to five times higher return on ad spend than other social media platforms.
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Start converting your B2B audience into high quality leads today. LinkedIn ads will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Go to LinkedIn.commbd to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.commbd terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn the place to be to be all right, you guys remember Chegg? The software that would come in clutch when you were stuck on certain problems from a textbook in high school? If you're much older than me, you probably don't remember, but if you're much younger, you'll never even know what I'm talking about because Chegg has been eaten alive by Chat GPT and it's the downfall of the once helpful software company that I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's Trends that I am calling Check yourself before you wreck yourself. Chegg stock is down an insane 99% since reaching an all time high just a few years ago in 2021 fourteen and a half billion dollars in value. Poof. Gone in a smoke of artificial intelligence. A look under the hood shows that has lost half a million in paid subscribers with no end in sight as students realize that Chat CBT and other large language models could help them with their work like Chegg did, but for free. So Neil, I want to talk about how there's not really a better example of a company getting swept away by the rise of AI than poor old Chegg, right?
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So look at this survey of college students by the investment bank Needham. 30% intended to use Chegg this semester, which is down from 38% in the spring. Meanwhile, 62% plan to use chat CBT, which is up from 43% in the spring. It's not hard to, you know, fill in the blanks here about what's going on. People are turning to AI students, especially in really big numbers. Maybe more so than I would have expected. A few years out after its release and Chegg has just collapsed as a company. It had 11% revenue drop in the second quarter and this quarter it's expected to have a lower sales of 15%. So this is an absolute destruction of a business model by AI. Earlier this year, Chegg laid off 441 people. And I think you have to say this is a pretty precise instance of AI taking somebody's job.
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And what's ironic too is that Chegg had AI on the mind for years. I mean, back in 2018 they were using open source models developed by OpenAI to help offer, you know, grammar assistance, help in a writing aid feature. But they kind of backed away because they were afraid that the kind of a, still a fear now is that these AI kind of generated answers would give misinformation to people and they didn't want to stake the reputation on an AI model. So they kind of backed away from really going down that path. So they were directionally correct that they knew that I was maybe going to become a thing, but they, they just didn't want to take the leap, fall in. So that's why you need maybe like a Sam Altman to just put this out into the world, hallucinations be damned. So it is wild though to see just how close they were to actually maybe being on the frontier of this large language model. Boom. But instead they're on the complete other side. And Chegg was not a small company, was almost $15 billion. And I do think we talk a lot about the hypotheticals of AI potentially wiping out certain industries, but this is just such a clear example of them saying everyone started using AI, no one used our product anymore and now our company is essentially gone.
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Yeah, they had a one day wipeout of 48% when they said originally earlier this summer that they were losing market share. To chat Beatty, it's a pretty interesting example of what, of what economists call creative destruction of one innovation, you know, out basically killing the other. And hopefully in the long run, you know, it leads to a destruction of business and lost jobs. But the idea is that in the long run that AI and replacing the old with the new will lead to further job gains, further productivity, further economic growth. So we're seeing it in action right now and it's pretty startling. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Bitcoin is on an absolute bender right now. Yesterday morning we discussed in astonishment how it topped $80,000 for the first time. Well, in the span of 24 hours it rose to nearly $90,000. And the post election euphoria shows no signs of stopping Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market has jumped about 25% in the week since election day on November 5th. And the value of the global crypto market rose above $3 trillion, topping its previous peak set in November 2021. Maybe the current attitude around crypto can best be captured by a note the asset manager Bernstein wrote to its clients yesterday. They said, and I quote, buy everything you can.
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Yeah, it is insane out there right now. One thing that is interesting about this particular bull cycle is that usually when bitcoin peaks, you can go back and track Google search trend data and see a corresponding peak with people just googling bitcoin, like, what is Bitcoin, Bitcoin, etc. This time the peak is not as high. So I'm not really sure what that means. I think it just means that more people are already aware of it, so you don't need to search it anymore. But we are not seeing the same amount of maybe retail interest this time around. So maybe it is smart money moving into bitcoin, maybe it's less retail people getting in this time around. But for whatever reason, we are not seeing a similar spike in search traffic, even though bitcoin is just absolutely flying right now. And I mean, if we see 90k, that means we're on the road to 100k, which was just unfathomable to think about even just a few years ago. Two US based commercial passenger jets, one operated by Spirit Airlines and the other by JetBlue, were hit by bullets yesterday while flying near Haiti's capital, Port au Prince. The Spirit Airlines flight was riddled with bullets and diverted to the Dominican Republic where one flight attendant was treated for minor injuries, but all passengers made it through unscathed. The Jet Blue flight, on the other hand, didn't even know it had been hit until it landed in New York where an inspection revealed the hole had been struck by a bullet. These incidents come against a backdrop of political unrest and gang violence in Haiti, but still, it is rare for passenger planes to be shot at and hit by gunfire.
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Yeah, I mean, I've never heard of this before, but it is, it is definitely symbolic of the violence that has engulfed Haiti. They the UN estimates that gangs, politically connected gangs, have banded together and they basically took over control of the capital. They control 85% of it right now. They've cut it off from the rest of the world or the rest of the country. So what's happening with, with the rest of Haiti is they just removed a prime minister and they just installed a new one. Who's an entrepreneur yesterday. So you have this insane political backdrop that's going on. Meanwhile, they're going to see basically no visitors, at least from the United States, because all of the commercial carriers have stopped flying there. Are paused, at least for the next few days. JetBlue, after this happened, said they're going to not fly there through December 2nd. So basically, you know, for a nation that had been isolated, it's going to be even more isolated after these. These incidents. Toby, how far would you travel for a really good soup dumpling?
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I mean, probably not even out of the house. I just Uber eats it.
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Well, young people in China are biking 40 miles overn to an ancient city famed for its soup dumplings. It's a viral craze that reached a climax over the weekend when an estimated 100,000 college students rented bikes and pedaled through the night in a breakfast quest for the ages. The trend started when four female university students in Zhengzhou traveled to the nearby city of Kaifeng, famous for its oversized soup dumplings, and posted their adventure on social media. It caught on as the weeks went by, culminating in this weekend's armada, where young people overtook the streets under the banner Night Riding army, prompting a crackdown by authorities. Toby, in a sense, this isn't about soup dumplings at all. It's all about youth liberation.
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I mean, if anyone's ever ridden a Citi bike through the streets at night, it is truly just a top five feeling. What's ironic is that a lot of authorities were initially welcoming this. They're saying what a great way to show this camaraderie and, like, just the joy of use. But then we're talking about literally hundreds of thousands of people. Some estimates put it over 200,000 people making these rides. And whenever that happens, inevitably you're going to have some bikes left to side. So authorities have started cracking down, saying remotely locking any rideshare bikes taken out of designated zones. So it did start out as a good thing. It probably still is a good thing. Net positive. Like, what an experience riding with 100,000 of your friends. But authorities are kind of saying, all right, it's too much. We're overwhelming this poor city. And I can't imagine what the line looks like at the dumpling shop.
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B
Yeah, well, hopefully there are more than one dumpling shop. But, yeah, I think this does speak to something interesting going on in Chinese society where there's a little depressed consumer spending and the economy is stagnant and the youth are. This is not, I wouldn't say a Revolt. But it was a chance to show that they're calling it youth is Priceless. And that's sort of the banner there they're flying under and they're talking about traveling and spending on the cheap. And the fact that you're getting 100,000 people hyping each other up and a ride through the night, 40 miles to go to get breakfast in this ancient city that has amazing soup dumplings seems like a very, you know, it seems like a societal moment and I think that's why it's caught on. And we'll see if it spreads to other cities. I'm sure the authorities. Let's really want that.
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A
Let's do that to Queens tomorrow morning. Let's finish up with a monkey Update. Remember those 43 macaques that escaped from a medical testing facility operated by Alpha Genesis in South Carolina? Well, as of yesterday, 30 of the 43 monkeys that got a taste of freedom are back in the company's custody. Now, this incident will lead to some questions about Alpha Genesis security protocols. But go a level deeper and there are some moral and legal questions to unpack here regarding an escape monkey's claim to freedom as well.
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B
I didn't know you were getting that deep. I was just going to say this is out of a sci fi movie, I think, especially because Alpha Genesis is a name straight out of a movie. I mean, this thing has 7,000 primates in this facility. There are only 2200 residents. So I think you're starting for some reason. Not for some reason, but this, this story has kind of taken on a life of its own in the United States. People are watching this, every move. They have counters about how many monkeys have been freed and, and, or how many have been captured so far. But I want, tell me about the moral implications of a monkey out in the wild.
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A
Yeah, because if you think about it, you would never steal someone's dog or cat, someone, a companion pet that is beloved by someone else that is, would be stealing. But when it comes to wild animals, the law is a lot different because when a wild animal escapes, they, the captor remains liable for any damage they're doing. But these macaques aren't doing any damage to society. They are not dangerous, they are not, they're not disease carrying or anything like that. So if you lose ownership of the animals, if they integrate into the surrounding wild environment, then they have a claim on freedom under the law. So it is this very gray area where they're trying to recapture what they think is their property. But if these macaques kind of integrate into the native South Carolina landscape, then they have a claim on freedom. So I think it is.
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B
Are they wild animals, though?
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Well, that's what. Yeah, they are not pets. Like, they're not necessarily domesticated animals. They are considered wild animals. So a lot of gray areas here. And I was. That's why I went down the morale.
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B
Are you rooting for that? Are you rooting for the monkeys?
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A
Of course I'm rooting for the monkeys. Are you kidding me? Like, that sounds like you finally break free. You're. I mean, you're in South Carolina now at this point. I don't know where they're native to, but I am rooting for the macaques in this situation.
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That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your day with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the podcast, share it with a friend, family member, or colleague who you think might benefit from it. By my estimates, about 7.995 billion people in the world are not yet listening to Morning Brew daily, so there's plenty of room to grow. Toby, which of these 8 billion people should people share it with today?
- [29:51]
A
I want you to share the podcast with someone who you want to better yourself alongside for these last 49 days of the year. 49 days is a long time. So make a pack that you will get after it and send this pod to someone who will hold you accountable.
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B
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchena Wagu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio, hair and makeup is on the hunt for soup dumplings. Devin Emery is our chief content officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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A
Great show today, Neal. Let's run it back tomorrow.