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What Mamdani's Win Means for Wall Street & Tariffs Head to the Supreme Court
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, can Zoran Mamdani and Wall street play nice together?
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Then are Trump's tariffs legal? The case heads to the supreme court. It's Wednesday, November 5th. Let's ride.
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B
Good morning. Lots of big news to get to, from election day results to tariffs at the Supreme Court. But first, yesterday was pretty epic for dapper English lads. David bent the knee like Beckham and was knighted by King Charles the third for his contributions to sports and charity. That also means his wife, Victoria will be known as a Lady Beckham, her second most impressive nickname after Posh Spice. Then the actor Jonathan Bailey, who's seemingly been in everything over the past two years, was named People magazine's Sexiest man alive, becoming the first openly gay man to win the title. You'll get him next year, Toby.
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C
My fiancee and I had very different reference points for Bailey. She said, oh, Jonathan Bailey from Bridgerton and Wicked. And I said, oh, Jonathan Bailey from Jurassic World Rebirth, because that's the only thing I saw him. But I also recently learned that People magazine has categories for sexiest people, including a podcasting category. Last year, Jason and Travis Kelsey won it, obviously. And this year went to the host of the Basement Yard, which admit Joe and Frank, they're funny, good looking guys. All this to say, I think our ship will come in one day, Neil.
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Splitcard the city home to the Charging Bull statue, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade and Times Square Olive Garden is getting a Democratic Socialist for its next mayor. Last night, Queens Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani was elected the next leader of the largest city in the United states, becoming New York's second youngest mayor in over a century at age 34 and the first Muslim mayor. The self described democratic socialist rose from total obscurity just six months ago to defeat rivals Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa by hammering one simple message relentlessly. Affordability. By flooding the zone with slickly produced social media videos and a grassroots campaign to match, Mamdani spoke to regular New Yorkers struggles in keeping up with the soaring cost of living in the Big Apple, where median rents are more than twice the average of America's 50 largest cities. And good luck trying to raise your kids here. Daycare for babies and toddlers is roughly $26,000 per year, a rise of 40% since 2020. Hazor on plans to reduce costs has drawn heavy criticism from the city's business community, who say his ideas like rent freezes and el bus fares will bankrupt New York and end up having the opposite effect of what they intend to do. The real estate industry has warned that New York will face an exodus of wealthy folks to places like Westchester or Palm beach, depriving the city of much needed tax revenue and causing a doom loop spiral such as New York experienced in the 1970s. Toby reported 26 billionaires and rich families spent at least $100,000 opposing Zoran. Now they've got to work with him, right?
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C
And that has kind of been the vibe. Wall street definitely has mixed feelings, we'll say about Zorin Mom Donn. But they moved from trying to actively campaign against them to quietly starting to prepare to work with him. Because if you're going to have the mayor of New York City, you're going to want to, you know, build a rapport with them. So Bill Ackman has, you know, kind of come out and congratulated Zorin for winning even though he, you know, contributed $1 million to a fix the City pack anti Imam Donnie groups. But then you also have Mamdani spoke with the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, over the summer. Dimon reportedly said he offered to help Mamdani if he wins. So it does look like that relationship will go forward. So I think you're seeing the general attitude right now is you can call it resignation, but, or you could call it, hey, we're going to have to work with this guy so we might as well start laying the groundwork right now. Yeah.
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B
Let's talk about what Mamdani has pledged to do during his campaign and maybe why the business community was so opposed to him. While he has advocated for free childcare, free buses, a 30 doll an hour, minimum wage by 2030, a four year rent freeze for 2 million residents. And the way he's going to pay for that, he says, is he's going to raise about $10 billion largely by taxing corporations. And when wealthy New Yorkers hear this and others hear this, they, they think, well, first of all, a lot of these policies will be counterproductive because they're, especially in the real estate community when you're talking about a rent freeze for over a million apartment units, they say that that disincentivizes landlords from building more, which is a key way to bring down housing costs. So you hear talk from Bill Ackman and from other business leaders saying, well, we don't want New York City to go the way of Chicago where you see a huge corporate exodus. And you know, if wealthy people do leave New York City, that could leave a huge hole in New York City tax coffers because the top 1% account for a huge portion of the city's personal income tax revenue. The top 1%, which are people with incomes of at least $900,000, they contribute 40% of the $18 billion the city collect annual income tax.
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Yeah. The question is always when you raise taxes, will these cities top earners go somewhere else? And we actually do have a mini case study here because in 2022, Massachusetts voters approved a 4% surtax on incomes of over $1 million. Since then actually the state has seen an increase in its millionaire population. It's jumped 38%, which is a little counterintuitive. So it does go to show though, at least in certain circumstances, a wealth tax doesn't automatically mean exodus. You know, New York City is still obviously the finance capital of the world. It's not. Suddenly a marginal increase in tax is going to mean everyone's going to move down to Miami. It could, hypothetically, if people, you know, follow through. But in another case study that we've seen in Massachusetts, that did not happen. So maybe if you have misgivings about, you know, the rich fleeing the city and, you know, the tax base collapsing, it's probably not as founded given other times that it's happened before.
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B
And now the challenge facing Mamdani, I mean, the, his campaign was impressive by all accounts, but now he has to run this city and he does not have a lot of experience at all. That was one of the main criticisms by the business community and opponents saying this guy has not ran an organization of more than five people ever. He has been a backbench assemblyman for less than five years. He's just 34 years old. And now he's about to oversee a city with a $112 billion budget, 300,000 person workforce. The the metro area's economy is more than $2.3 trillion bigger than that of Canada and about 9% of the total GDP of the United States. So while Zoran ran a great campaign and made these really big swing promises, you know, it's going to, he's going to have to actually run this city and the business community is going to have to work with them to see that through. Let's talk about election day broadly, because there were other races besides the New York City mayor. It was a big night for Democrats. Abigail Spanberger will become the governor of Virginia. Mikey Sherrill won the governor's race in New Jersey. Those are both Democrats. And here's a fun fact. Spanberger, who's going to lead Virginia, is a native of New Jersey. And Cheryl, who will lead New Jersey, is from Virginia.
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It's got my brain in a pretzel right there, Neal. That is a fun fact. All right, moving on. Today, the most important case ever is in the United States Supreme Court. But don't take my word for it. That language comes from a social media post from the president himself. Oral arguments in the case Trump is referring to kick off today when justices will weigh whether the president's lawfully rolled out global tariffs without Congress's approval. A lot is at stake here. A ruling against Trump would undercut his ability to use tariffs as an all purpose tool to bolster American industry and pressure trading partners into concessions. A win would set a precedent for how much unilateral authority a president can wield in times of so called emergency. Hanging in the balance is the around $90 billion the government has already collected in tariffs, as well as the $1 trillion in revenue the administration expects to have collected by next June Everything may hinge on how the court defines one word regulate. The International Emergency Economic Powers act, the law that Trump has used to justify most of his tariff agenda, lets the president, quote, regulate importation during emergencies. Trump argues that tariffs are indeed a form of importation regulation, so using them is well within his powers. The challenger's argument, which includes a group of small businesses and states, say he exceeded his legal powers, something the lower courts have agreed with so far. Neil, the stakes are sky high. Administration officials have used words like dangerous, catastrophic and ruinous to describe what would happen should they lose this case. Trump went a step further and called the case literally life or death for our country in a post on true social arguments kick off at 10am today.
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Supreme Court seems to agree with the gravity of this case because they kind of streamlined the schedule for this, saying, get your briefings in to us now. We're going to hear this case in November and we're probably going to rule on this before next summer, which is when you usually see the rulings on the current docket come through. So they do certainly agree with Trump and the Trump administration that this is a huge deal. Experts say it's a toss up, though they're not really sure how the justice has made a side. There's all of these confounding variables to hanging over it. Not just the tariffs itself, but all of the political considerations that are going on of what it would mean to rule against Trump. And you know, the Supreme Court does have a 6 to 3 conservative majority. They're not going to want to see bowing down to the executive branch. But at the same time, there's still a lot of, a lot of stuff going on. Let's talk about the backstory, how we got here. So back in April, Trump gets up with the big easel on Liberation Day and says, we are going to put tariffs on more than 100 trading partners because he said we need to address this huge trade deficit we have with the rest of the world. So tariffs went up and then through August, the government collected around $90 billion from these specific tariffs. That's more than half of the tariff revenue that the country collected in the last fiscal year. And I just want to stress this is not all of the tariffs that Trump, the Trump administration has rolled out. There are sector specific tariffs that on things like autos, aluminum, steel, lumber. Those were invoked under a different law than this 1977 Emergency Powers Act. Then there were lawsuits from state officials, six companies, including a wine importer and a toy manufacturer. And that's the case that has wound up at the Supreme Court where they're going to dissect this law with every word, including regulate.
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Yeah, let's dive into what the International Emergency Economic Powers act actually means. The law grants the President the ability to, quote, investigate, regulate or prohibit international economic transactions by declaring a national emergency. Remember, Trump administration has been declaring national emergencies left and right to justify these tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China. In total, he's declared nine national emergencies, including the fentanyl crisis, unbalanced trade duties. These are things that he says constitute national emergencies. I do think that's. Well, what will be debated here is since when is a trade deficit a national emergency? We've been running trade deficits for, you know, the last modern years of economic history right now. So why suddenly after 50, 70 years of running these deficits, is it now constitute a national emergency? So that is going to be something that you will see debated today. So the critics of this law say that the administration is just abusing the phrase national emergency doesn't mean what it was initially intended to mean.
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And the Trump administration's lawyers are going to come back and say essentially these tariffs are too big to fail. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said back in August, I think the more deals we've done, the more money coming in, it gets harder and harder for SCOTUS to rule against us. So he's like, where are the big banks, where the big car companies? You can't let us fail because it would lead to what Trump says, you know, economic ruin. And that's going to be a big argument that they're going to push, like this train has already left the station. You can't do this. Because if so, and you know, a lot of analysts agree, there'd be a lot of chaos in the market. Should the government have to refund $90 billion worth back to back to companies. And of course they're planning a bunch of contingency plans like using different statutes and laws to bring more tariffs, should these things be rescinded. But there's a long way to go until then, we'll absolutely be watching these arguments today. Michael Burry became world famous for identifying a bubble, and he's seeing one now. The investor who famously shorted the housing market ahead of the financial crisis, AKA Christian Bale in the big short revealed that his hedge fund had taken out put options on two huge names in video and Palantir at the end of last quarter, which is a bet on those companies shares to decline. They did at least yesterday with Palantir. Tumbling 8% and in video dropping 4%. Burry's disclosure comes days after his first expose in years where he wrote, sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes there is something to do about it. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play. A reference to the 1983 sci fi movie War Games. Burry's moves are closely watched by individual investors who who consider him a modern day Nostradamus. And him calling out Palantir and Nvidia is notable given those are considered among the biggest winners of the AI revolution. Nvidia shares are up 1200 percent since the start of 2023. Palantir has gained more than 170% year to date after being the S and P best performing stock in 2024. But unlike 2008, Burry isn't the only one warning of frothiness in the market this time around. On Tuesday morning, the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs got on stage at a panel in Hong Kong and predicted that stocks could fall at least 10% in the next one to two years, noting that often these pullbacks are healthy and part of the business cycle. Still, all this bubble talk gave investors heartburn yesterday with the NASDAQ dropping more than 2% and the S&P closing 1.2% lower.
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C
Yeah, yesterday morning when we were doing the show, you just looked at stock futures. You go, oh, it's a red day going. So it was just kind of a confluence of a lot of different factors. Obviously, like the entire market didn't fall because Michael Burry revealed these positions. But it's all kind of contributing to the narrative that maybe the trade has gotten a little ahead of its skis right now. One person who had a lot to say about Michael Burry's, you know, decisions was Palantir CEO Alex Karp. This dude can't stop making headlines with the quotes that he's putting out. He called Michael Burry and called the short bat blank crazy. The idea that chips and ontology, which is the platform that Palantir is rolling out, are the ones you want to short is crazy, he told cnbc. He says, why would you go after the money making companies? Why would you go after the two things that are clearly doing well in the trade right now? So he also called it market manipulation. So kind of just let the let Michael Burry have it right now. Now the question is, are these shorts part of a broader hedge? Are they standalone bearish bets? We're not sure because these filings happen on a delay. These positions might already be closed by Now. But it was telling to see how fast and how intensely Alex Carter pushed back against Michael Burry because of course he did.
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Yeah, right. He's coming off that earnings call back on Monday afternoon where he also, you know, spoke to all of the haters of Palantir because they reported a great quarter, but their shares declined after. And then they continued declining yesterday after Burry revealed that short because Palantir is, is the most expensive stock of its size in the history of the United States. Then you had the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs come out and say, we see a little frothiness as well. One sign you can point to, to identify perhaps a bubble forming is the intense market concentration we have in a few stocks at the top that are really invested in AI. So six stocks contributed about half of the gains in the s and P500 since the start of 2025. Go back to Monday. The Nasdaq was up like 0.5%. But then you look at the entire s and P500.300 stocks out of the 500 closed in the red, but it was still up. So a lot of analysts are pointing to this intense concentration at the top as perhaps Michael Burry might be onto something.
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Yeah, It's S&P 500 in name only. It's probably closer to, you know, S and P. Magnificent Seven. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about the restaurant industry. The crypto landscape changes daily. Keep up with some of the best launches in new tech all in one place on your commute.
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Learn more@disney campaignmanager.com that's disney campaignmanager.com Nobody out pizzas the Hut but the Hut might be sold off for pieces soon number two pizza chain in the US with $5.6 billion in sales across 6,500 stores is being shopped around by parent company Yum Brands as it lags behind the rest of its portfolio. Founded back in 1958 in Kansas, Pizza Hut's iconic red roofed eateries were a staple of mid century americana. But now, 70 years later, pizza Hut's dine in pizza model has been eroded by delivery first rivals like Domino's turning the brand into Yum's weakest performer, overshadowed by higher growth names like Taco Bell and kfc. It's far from the only chain you'd catch on an interstate sign that's struggling though. On Monday, Denny's announced it had reached out to buyers and received multiple offers as it navigates a tough post pandemic period where it closed 180 locations in two years. Papa John's also plunged on news that Apollo Global Management withdrew its offer to take the company private and Bojangles is reportedly mulling a one and a half billion dollar sale of its fried chicken empire. Added all up Neal and it's clear that these restaurant chains are struggling under both the weight of outdated business models in the case of Denny's and Pizza Hut, and reduced spending from consumers who are feeling a little uncertain in the current economic environment. All I know is I am hungry right now.
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B
Yeah, Pizza Hut within the greater realm of young brands is the laggard. So Yum Brands spun out of pepsi in the 90s. It owns Taco Bell, KFC and and Pizza Hut and Taco Bell and KFC are doing actually really well. Taco Bell Same store sales gained 7% last quarter. KFC was up 3% and then Pizza Hut was down 6%. So clearly Pizza Hut is getting lapped by Domino's and other pizza chains. Just compare the revenue per location from Pizza Hut and Taco Bell and you kind of see why they're shopping Pizza Hut around. It has more than double the footprint of Taco Bell. But last quarter, Pizza Hut had $240 million in revenue to Taco Bell's 730 million. So Taco Bell is seeing a lot more people come through those doors. It's shelling a lot more burritos and tacos than Pizza Hut. Those, those things are empty. Its market share is absolutely crumbling right now. Back in had a 22.6% market share in the pizza market in the United States. Now it's down to 18.7% in 2020, 2024. And you have to imagine that domino's with rolling out a bunch of promotions is only gaining from there.
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C
My question is, who is wanting to buy these companies right now? Because everything you just said is true. I mean, declining foot traffic, its business model is outdated. So why are people interested in Denny's? Why are they interested in a Pizza Hut? And it is these private equity firms that are circling here because they do see value in legacy chains. Obviously they're trading at very low multiples right now because this is not a growth industry. But they have super strong brand ip. They have really strong real estate footprints. And so you, and you have seen some turnarounds happen in the past. PF Chang is on the comeback trail. Hooters is trying to rehearse itself and stage a comeback as well. So even though that you're facing falling foot traffic, you're seeing a shift to fast, casual and value driven diners, you still have a name like Denny's and you still have a name like Pizza. These are names that are ingrained in, you know, American diner culture. So I do think that they see a buy low opportunity here, even though that these are struggling businesses.
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You answered your own question. All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. If you've ever wanted to live through history, congrats, you're doing it right now. The US government shutdown has become the longest ever at 36 days. It surpassed the previous record of 35, set during the first Trump administration in 2018 and 2019. But for the first time in weeks, there's hope it could end soon. Senators from both parties were optimistic that now that Election Day has come and gone, there's greater willingness to come together and work out a compromise that would extend funding for the government and get millions of workers the paychecks they haven't been receiving for over a month. I think we've got a real shot, said Republican Senator John Hovind of North Dakota, while Democrat Gary Peters of Michigan said, we're in a sensitive Time right now, sensitive time is right because SNAP food stamp payments to 42 million Americans are in limbo. Following a court order, the Trump administration said it would tap into contingency funds to send 50% of the payments out for November. But the president said yesterday that he would withhold those payments until the shutdown was over. The White House later backtracked on that and said it would soon send out the portion of SNAP funds after all.
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C
Yeah, the buttons are being pushed right now by, you know, Republican leaders. The other button in addition to snap is the transportation industry right now. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the DOT may shut down or restrict U.S. airspace within a week because of these shortages of air traffic controllers who are missing paychecks right now. And so that typically has been the thing that brings these prolonged government shutdowns to a close is when the air industry starts to say, we're going to start restricting flights here because we just don't have the manpower here. So I think those are maybe part of the magic words that you need to finally bring this long and drawn out shutdown to a close. Up next, Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund is taking a stand against Elon Musk's massive pay deal at Tesla. The fund, one of Tesla's largest shareholders, said it voted against the $1 trillion compensation package ahead of this week's shareholder meeting. Maybe it's because they got jealous that one personal pay package could hypothetically reach half the size of the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Norway's managers kind of said as much, relaying that they respect Musk's vision, but worry the award is too large, would dilute other shareholders and leaves Tesla too dependent on a single person. The move puts the fund at odds with Tesla's board, though, which has warned that Musk might step down if the deal is rejected. Shares of Tesla fell about 5% in yesterday's trading after the news. But, Neal, looking at prediction markets right now, Kalsha gives the package a 94% chance of going through.
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Yeah, this fund is the first, first major institutional investor to say they're going to vote no. They are the six largest holding among institutional investors of Tesla. But the reason why Musk appears to be on his way to winning this package is that just look at the numbers. Norway's sovereign wealth Fund has a 1.16% stakeholders in Tesla. Musk himself is the company's largest investor. He adds, he has almost 16% of all outstanding shares and he has the voting shares to match that. So we will be Watching this vote tomorrow, it will determine the future of Tesla. We know now how Norway is voting. All right, finally, Tom Brady has seven Super bowl rings, three MVPs, and now two dogs that have had the same DNA. In an interview with People magazine, the football legend revealed that his current dog Juni is a one for one clone of his previous dog Lua, a pit bull mix. Lua had blood collected prior to her death in 2023 which was used to create the clone. Now the one thing you should know about Brady and his post playing career is always be selling this dog. Clone reveal was calculated to coincide with a business announcement involving Colossal Biosciences. You might remember Colossal as the de extinction startup that wants to bring back dire wolves and the woolly mammoth. Well, Brady is an investor in this company and he used his clone dog to hype up Colossal's acquisition of Viagen, a biotech known for cloning Paris Hilton and Barbra Streisand's dogs. And now Brady's. Guess he's not scarred from his days promoting fdx.
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C
I'm just going to say this is a little weird for sure. I mean, Dave Portnoy, who you know is obviously a massive Boston sports fan, posted a quote tweet of the announcement on I'm a dog guy and a Brady guy. This is weird as bleep. So you're probably not the only one sitting there thinking what the heck is Tom Brady doing? But it is very on brand for him. One, he does have a sprawling investment portfolio and he's been a shrewd businessman. I mean, maybe not so shrewd if you think about what happened with ftx. But obviously he's going to want to promote this company that he's invested in. But also Brady's kind of a longevity guy, kind of an immortality guy potentially, and cloning is potentially a path to that. So it does make sense that de Extinction is something that he is kind of focused in on on his post retirement investing career. So maybe this is just something that's going to become a normal fact of life that you know, if you have the money to do it, your pets are never going to die because you just keep cloning them and cloning them. So fascinating story, Definitely weird on the surface, definitely weird under the surface as well. But fascinating story about what it might mean for the extinction and, you know, pet industry going forwards.
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All right, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. For any feedback on the show, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram. B Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup invoked emergency powers to call out today. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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C
Great show day, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Tomorrow.