Morning Brew Daily: "Winners and Losers of Shutdown Ending & Last-Ever Penny Minted"

Hosts: Toby Howell & Ann Barry
Date: November 13, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode recaps the end of the protracted U.S. government shutdown, examining who came out ahead (and who didn’t), the economic aftereffects, and direct impacts on various sectors. The hosts also dive into Google’s bold lawsuit against a major cyber-scam syndicate, explore the final minting of the U.S. penny, and touch on topics ranging from the Harvard grade inflation debate to AI chatbot usage and a heated Disney/YouTube TV standoff. The show balances sharp business insight with their signature witty banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Aurora Borealis Across America (00:44–02:36)

• Ann Barry reports on the unusually strong northern lights, visible as far south as Alabama and Florida due to a G4-level solar storm.
• Toby’s Tips on Capturing the Northern Lights:
  • “You need darkness, exposure and your iPhone...change your iPhone settings to use a longer exposure time so the sensor lets in more light than usual.” (01:32)
• The event is described as a rare, memorable experience for southern states.

2. End of the Government Shutdown (03:06–08:02)

What Happened?

• Shutdown Duration: 44 days; ended with a stopgap bill funding government through January 30.
• Workforce Impact: 800,000 federal employees back to work; back pay and SNAP benefits restored.
• Delayed Data: Some government data (jobs/inflation) from October may never be released.

Winners and Losers

• Ann Barry:
  • "I'm really struggling to think...of someone who is a winner coming out of all this, to be perfectly honest..."
  • Airlines, small businesses, and the housing market suffered significantly:
    • Flight cancellations (2000 scrapped flights Monday, 900 Wednesday)
    • Businesses near federal offices lost traffic
• Toby Howell’s Bright Side:
  • “Winners were actually probably one Wall Street and investors throughout this...” (05:34)
  • S&P 500 flat or positive during 10 of past 13 shutdowns; a surprising 2% gain this round.
  • Gig apps and private credit platforms benefited (“buy now, pay later”, paycheck advances saw short-term demand).

Lingering Effects

• Hiring and Productivity Loss: Effects will ripple into 2026.
  • “The loss of the overall economy is...lost productivity that you can’t easily recapture or regain after it happens.” (07:14)
• Housing Market: Slowed due to inability to verify income.
• Thanksgiving Travel Outlook: Resuming, with travelers feeling relieved.

3. Google’s Lawsuit vs. Phishing Scammers (Lighthouse Group) (08:32–13:00)

• Ann Barry:

  • “Millions of scam text messages...have allegedly made over a billion dollars for the instigators...Now someone is finally standing up...Google suing the cyber criminal group...known as ‘Lighthouse.’” (08:33)
  • Group offers ‘phishing as a service’—dashboards, fake site templates, subscription tiers (10:02)
  • Stolen credit card estimates: 13–115 million U.S. accounts.

• Challenges Google Faces:

  • Culprits believed to be in China—out of U.S. legal reach.
  • Suing unnamed, pseudonymous defendants; hoping to set legal precedents or deter would-be scammers.

• Toby on Legal Leverage:

  • “We have seen that injunctions can be shown to hosting providers or other tech firms...could act as a deterrent.” (11:49)
  • Discusses Google’s reputational motivations:
    • “Yeah, it's trying to be the white knight here, Batman, as you said.” (13:00)

4. Neil’s Numbers: Three Top Stats for Your Thanksgiving Small Talk (14:51–23:03)

1. Harvard Grade Inflation (15:00–18:40)

• 60% of Harvard grades last year were A’s; median GPA up to 3.83.
• Only 25% were A’s in 2005.
• “Grade inflation” blamed on enrollment pressures and fear of lost students.
• Toby: "Part of the gradeflation trend comes from professors who fear tougher grading will drive students away..." (15:00)
• Discussion of student and professor perspectives, precedent with Princeton, and possible introduction of the A+ grade.

2. How People Actually Use Chatbots (18:40–21:36)

• Study: 1 in 10 chatbot users treat them as conversation partners or for abstract musings.
• “A lot of people are treating the chat[bot] less as a grammar checker or email writer and more as an all knowing oracle they can use to probe the depths of themselves and existence.” (19:25)
• “AI sycophancy” observed: bots agree 10x more than they disagree.
• Reddit and other forums reselling user-shared bot conversations for AI training, creating a feedback loop.
• “It's AI all the way to the—” “Bottom, I think in a totally different form.” (21:36)

3. Disney vs. YouTube TV Showdown (21:40–24:18)

• Disney’s contract blackout costing $4.3 million/day; estimated $60 million if 2 weeks long.
• Major loss for sports fans missing Monday Night/college football.
• Google offering $20 credits to stave off YouTube TV subscriber losses.
• Ann: “As annoying as this is for everybody...both of these guys can afford to sort of take the hit for a while.” (23:03)
• Stalemate over rights fees for overlapping ESPN and ABC broadcasts.

5. End of the U.S Penny Era (24:18–26:39)

• 238-year run ends; last penny minted in Philadelphia.
• “It costs about 4 cents to make 1 cent.” (24:18)
• Pennies remain legal tender; retailers are grappling with rounding/price adjustments.
• Toby’s trivia: “Abraham Lincoln is the most reproduced artwork in all of human history because we've minted so many pennies...” (25:33)
• Retailers want federal rounding rules; some bracing for millions in lost revenue due to nickel rounding policies.

6. Ryanair Goes Fully Digital with Boarding Passes (26:39–27:53)

• As of yesterday, no printed boarding passes except in jurisdictions that require them.
• Forgetting check-in now results in a ~$72 fee.
• CEO: “Anyone who fails to check in ahead of time is, quote, either stupid or they ignored our email instructions.” (27:42)
• Hosts note accessibility concern for older fliers or occasional travelers.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Shutdown's Impact:
  • “I'm really struggling to think...of someone who is a winner...to be perfectly honest.” – Ann Barry (04:38)
  • “Winners were actually probably one Wall Street and investors throughout this...” – Toby Howell (05:34)
• On Northern Lights in Florida:
  • “You need darkness, exposure and your iPhone...Keep a steady hand here because...it comes out really blurry if you're moving.” – Toby Howell (01:32)
• On Google's Lawsuit:
  • “Google is saying like, hey, this is not just a couple of people...This is a legitimate company...selling subscriptions to these things.” – Toby Howell (10:02)
• On Chatbot Use:
  • “A lot of people are treating the chat[bot]...as an all knowing oracle they can use to probe the depths of themselves and existence.” – Toby Howell (19:25)
• Penny-shocking Fact:
  • “It costs about 4 cents to make 1 cent....the government's phasing out of the penny has been a bit chaotic.” – Ann Barry (24:18)
• On Digital Boarding:
  • “Anyone who fails to check in ahead of time is, quote, either stupid or they ignored our email instructions.” – Ryanair CEO (Quoted by Toby Howell) (27:42)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Aurora Borealis Segment: 00:44–02:36
• Government Shutdown Recap & Analysis: 03:06–08:02
• Google Sues Lighthouse (Phishing Scams): 08:32–13:00
• Neil’s Numbers Stats:
  • Harvard Grade Inflation: 15:00–18:40
  • Chatbots as Confidants: 18:40–21:36
  • Disney/YouTube TV Feud: 21:40–24:18
• Last Penny Minted: 24:18–26:39
• Ryanair Digital Boarding Passes: 26:39–27:53

Tone and Banter

The tone throughout is lively, frank, and peppered with wry asides—balancing serious news with light-hearted, relatable commentary. The hosts don’t shy away from skepticism or airing frustrations (whether about scam texts, grade inflation, or boarding pass fees), while still uncovering nuggets of humor and insight in every topic.

This summary provides a full roadmap for anyone looking to catch up on the news and quirks of November 13, 2025, and serves as an effective stand-in for listening to the episode.