Egypt hosting Gaza peace talks today

Summary

Morning Joe Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Egypt Hosting Gaza Peace Talks Today
Hosts: Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, Willie Geist
Guests & Contributors: Rachel Maddow, Richard Haass, David Ignatius, David Drucker, Aaron David Miller, Ali Vitali
Date: October 6, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on major international and domestic developments, with two primary themes:

• The high-stakes ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Cairo, against the backdrop of changing U.S.-Israeli relations and President Trump’s direct involvement in the Middle East peace process.
• The ongoing government shutdown in Washington, DC, now in its sixth day, with an in-depth interview with House Speaker Mike Johnson and ramifications around health care, subsidies, and political maneuvering.

Conversations also briefly touch on weekend sports, public sentiment on Israel’s war in Gaza, and shifting American politics surrounding these stories.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Egypt's Ceasefire Talks and the Gaza War

A. Diplomatic Progress and Sticking Points

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirms on "Meet the Press" that Hamas accepted President Trump’s hostage release framework; ongoing talks are happening in Cairo ([05:00]).
• Both sides agree that "Hamas will not govern Gaza" under Trump's 20-point peace plan, supported by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• Despite ongoing negotiations, Israeli airstrikes killed 65 people in Gaza over the weekend—even as "massive bloodshed" looms if delays persist.
• Trump-Netanyahu dynamic: Trump, with support from Jared Kushner and others, is applying unprecedented pressure on Netanyahu, leveraging a recent diplomatic misstep (Netanyahu's attacks on Qatar).

"Trump doesn't make threats to Bibi, he gives him orders. And that's the way it’s looked, I think, in recent days."
—David Ignatius quoting Israeli columnist Nahum Barnea ([09:16])

B. Analysis of the Potential ‘Breakthrough’

• Richard Haass: "Stars are aligning, not for peace, but...for a breakthrough." Ceasefire, a hostage-for-prisoner exchange, Israeli pullback, and increased aid are possible but "eliminating Hamas" or full peace talks are unlikely at this stage ([07:10]).
• Haass and others caution against overselling the deal: Even if reached, Hamas will not truly be eliminated, and core Palestinian issues remain unresolved.
• Trump’s popularity in Israel, especially after Iran’s attacks, is influencing both the Israeli government's calculations and the flow of negotiations.
• The sequence of events, including Netanyahu's need for U.S. support and Trump's leveraging of Qatari relations, positioned the Trump administration as the dominant force in the talks.

"Netanyahu was really forced by Donald Trump to accept this deal…cornered him."
—Joe Scarborough ([08:07])

C. The Limits and Dangers Ahead

• The deal’s details—how Hamas is disarmed, the extent of Israeli withdrawals, and the composition of an Arab peacekeeping force—remain unsettled and risky.
• Haass: "The tripwires are...how much of this overall 20 points you try to get accomplished in order to get the first point" ([12:33]).
• Rachel Maddow notes a turning point in U.S. policy: "Now [Netanyahu] seems like he's not able to [defy a president]...Trump and his team really feel like they've been able to put the screws to Netanyahu" ([11:23]).

D. Public and Political Shifts Among American Jews

• A new Washington Post poll shows dramatic negative sentiment among American Jews: 61% believe Israel has committed war crimes; nearly 40% say genocide; 68% give Netanyahu negative marks ([14:40]).
• Joe Scarborough: "I've never seen anything like it in America...the long-term implications for Israel...if, like me, you're a supporter of Israel, that's pretty devastating." ([19:10])
• Both Ignatius and Drucker trace this shift back to Netanyahu’s partisanship in U.S. politics, starting with his confrontations with President Obama and deepening with the ongoing Gaza war.

E. Expert Analysis: Aaron David Miller

• Miller (Carnegie Endowment): Predicts a likely "limited deal"—return of hostages for decreased Israeli military action, but doubts a broader stabilization/technocratic government or full Gaza demilitarization is credible.
• "A real opening here...but without leadership on either side, it’s going to be hard to broaden it." —Miller, on the prospect for long-term peace ([27:35]).
• On U.S.-Israeli relations: Trump is the first U.S. president to give Netanyahu orders rather than seek his support ([29:32]).

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2. The U.S. Government Shutdown

A. Where Negotiations Stand

• The government shutdown continues, with blame trading between the parties ([34:07]).
• MSNBC’s Ali Vitali’s sit-down interview with House Speaker Mike Johnson is a centerpiece ([34:21]).
• Johnson blames Senate Democrats, particularly Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, for refusing to pass a continuing resolution (CR) identical in substance to a bill they’d previously supported ([35:40]).
• Johnson asserts that "we have effectively three months to negotiate" ACA subsidies and other issues, and argues that Democrats are using the shutdown for political cover ([35:32]).
• Ali Vitali presses Johnson on the practical impact for families making open enrollment decisions with health care uncertainty.

B. ACA Subsidies and Medicaid Cuts

• Johnson claims Republicans are reducing costs, not cutting Medicaid, saying that cuts are aimed at "fraud, waste, and abuse" ([38:10]).
• Ali Vitali and Joe Scarborough conduct real-time fact-checking: the CBO projects $911 billion in Medicaid cuts and 11 million Americans losing coverage under the Republican bill, affecting rural hospitals and nursing homes ([47:46]).
• Johnson deflects blame, states concerns about illegal immigrants obtaining benefits—a point refuted by Vitali and Scarborough as legally inaccurate ([38:35], [49:33]).

"Illegal immigrants, not true, can’t get the Affordable Care Act. They can't get Medicaid, can't get Medicare."
—Joe Scarborough ([49:33])

C. Political Strategy and Public Sentiment

• Polling shows a plurality (47%) of Americans blame Johnson, his party, and the president, versus 30% blaming Democrats ([41:16]).
• Johnson maintains that the onus is on Senate Democrats due to needing 60 votes that Republicans alone don’t control ([43:43]).
• Ali Vitali notes that, by keeping negotiations around ACA and health funding open, "the door is no longer closed," signaling a shift in the negotiation space ([51:52]).

D. Inside Baseball: Johnson, Trump, and the Speaker’s Role

• Johnson rebuffs the idea that he's only speaker as long as President Trump wants him to be, emphasizing attempts at bipartisan consensus ([39:11]).
• The relationship between the Speaker and President is explored; social media memes (including perceived racist meme of Democratic leaders) complicate perceptions of seriousness in the shutdown ([42:57]).

"It's hard to be talking about...how serious you are about health care when you have the president sending out memes that many people consider to be racist."
—Joe Scarborough ([55:31])

E. Epstein Files Transparency

• Speaker Johnson addresses efforts for full transparency on the Jeffrey Epstein files, arguing that the House Oversight Committee is working as quickly as legally possible, though advocacy for "maximum disclosure" is complicated by the need to protect victims ([45:11], [46:40]).

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3. Sports Roundup

• Early banter covers NFL and MLB upsets: Patriots' win in Buffalo, Yankees and Giants struggles, Washington Commanders’ rebound ([01:52] to [04:13]).
• A quick interlude among regulars, maintaining the show’s informal, energetic tone before shifting into hard news.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Trump doesn't make threats to Bibi, he gives him orders."
  —David Ignatius quoting Nahum Barnea ([09:16])

• "I think the stars are aligning, not for peace, but...for a breakthrough."
  —Richard Haass ([07:10])

• "Democrats are constantly thinking that Republicans are about to seize the majority of Jewish voters because I guess Donald Trump says so. It's 70%, it's 70%, 75%, 80% every four years...But David Ignatius, these numbers are not constant."
  —Joe Scarborough ([19:10])

• "A real opening here...but without leadership on either side, it’s going to be hard to broaden it."
  —Aaron David Miller ([27:35])

• "I've never seen anything like it in America—just stark, stark disagreement with Netanyahu and Israel on their policies from Jewish Americans."
  —Joe Scarborough ([19:10])

• "It's hard to be talking about how serious you are about health care when you have the president sending out memes that many people consider to be racist..."
  —Joe Scarborough ([55:31])

• Johnson on shutdown politics: "Chuck Schumer is the one holding up the votes...We passed a clean CR. I didn't have any partisan poison priorities or poison pills..." ([41:27])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [05:00] — Summary of the Egypt peace talks and Trump's role
• [07:10] — Richard Haass on odds and potential of Gaza ceasefire deal
• [09:16] — Nahum Barnea quote and Ignatius on Trump-Netanyahu dynamic
• [14:40] — Poll data: American Jews’ views on Israel and Netanyahu
• [19:10] — Scarborough & Ignatius on changing U.S. public sentiment toward Israel
• [25:46] — Aaron David Miller analysis: constraints and realities of the peace process
• [34:21] — Ali Vitali’s interview with Speaker Mike Johnson on government shutdown
• [38:10] — ACA subsidies, Medicaid debate, & real-time fact-checking
• [41:16] — Shutdown blame polling statistics
• [45:11] — Epstein files transparency, discharge petition debate
• [47:46] — Scarborough and Vitali on the real impacts of Medicaid cuts and shutdown politics
• [51:52] — Vitali: shifting window for ACA subsidy negotiations

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Tone and Language

The tone is conversational and dynamic, alternating between humorous camaraderie during sports and sharply critical, fact-based discussion on policy and diplomacy. The hosts engage deeply with reputable insiders and experts, fact-check statements in real time, and maintain a sense of urgency and gravity in covering the government’s largest challenges.

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Summary by Topic

Middle East Peace Talks

• Main Themes: Trump-led shuttle diplomacy, Netanyahu's weakened position, possible but limited breakthrough ahead; heavy skepticism about long-term peace until both Israeli and Palestinian leadership changes.
• Memorable Insight: Trump’s direct, sometimes abrasive style has shifted U.S.-Israeli relations — with Netanyahu "boxed in" like never before.

U.S. Government Shutdown

• Main Themes: Partisan blame over continuing resolution, risk to health care subsidies, Medicaid, and frontline services.
• Speaker Johnson's Perspective: It's Democrats’ fault; negotiations need more time; he claims real people are hurt, points to the CR as bipartisan-friendly.
• Fact-check Challenges: Hosts highlight CBO projections of enormous health care cuts and loss of coverage as a direct result of the GOP bill.
• Memorable Insight: Political messaging (including memes) undermines gravity; the willingness to negotiate on ACA subsidies marks a turning point.

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Concluding Thought

This episode pulls back the curtain on both the mechanics and the politics behind two crises: the struggle for peace in Gaza and the domestic stalemate of a government shutdown. As guests and hosts clarify, under the surface of talking points and press releases, tectonic shifts are occurring—in U.S. foreign policy, in American public opinion, and in the day-to-day realities facing millions of people.

For all its partisan sparring and political theater, the show leaves listeners with the sense that high-level negotiations—at home and abroad—are in a moment of rare, delicate flux, with significant consequences for the future.

Transcript

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[Morning Joe Host]

Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Monday, October 6th. There's a lot to get to this morning, including the latest on the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas ahead of a meeting today in Egypt. Big developments. Meanwhile in Washington, the government shutdown is entering day six. We'll show you what both sides are saying about it, as well as Ali Vitelli's Sit down with speakers. Speaker Mike Johnson. Also ahead will go through the flurry of moves related to the National Guard and the efforts by the Trump administration to send troops to Chicago and Portland, Oregon. We'll also take a look at the big weekend in sports, updates on the MLB playoffs, top teams losing NFL Jonathan.

[Joe Scarborough]

Lemire, I mean, your Patriots do we dare say the Pats are back?

[Rachel Maddow]

The rest of the league won't be happy about it, but the New England Patriots might be on the verge of being back. This was an extremely impressive Sunday night win over Josh Allen on the road in Buffalo. Drake may look good for a young team, potentially an important market.

[Joe Scarborough]

I mean, Drake May was a guy that couldn't throw 15 and out in the combines. A lot of people thought he was a really bad choice for the Patriots. Of course, the Patriots also gave up Mac Jones, who is doing, as you said before, nothing but winning in San Francisco. I mean, it's an extraordinary story for, for Mac Jones. But you know, the thing is I didn't get to watch yesterday's sports yesterday afternoon. Of course, Willie and I go to the dog track and then we go to the orphanage and we do our sort of cat skills routine for him. So I miss the Giants. How did the Giants do yesterday? Did they win?

[Richard Haass]

Not five turnovers on five straight possessions.

[Joe Scarborough]

Okay. But the Yankees obviously won, right? They, they, they threw it back did.

[Richard Haass]

You not go to church yesterday? Like, where's your.

[Joe Scarborough]

No, I did the dog track and then I was at the orphanage.

[Mike Johnson]

What happened?

[Joe Scarborough]

What happened? Thank you.

[Rachel Maddow]

Brutalized the final score yesterday was 13 to 7.

[Joe Scarborough]

That's like a football. It wasn't that close.

[Rachel Maddow]

The score's deceptively. It was. It was 12, nothing. This comes after 10 to 1, the day before. The Yankees.

[Joe Scarborough]

They sound like a football team, these blue chicks.

[Rachel Maddow]

They hit the Vlad slam. Last night was a thing of beauty. And the Yankees. Look, Max Freed was terrific against the Sox last week. He sure was. Not yesterday, by the way.

[Joe Scarborough]

I, I think. I think like some JV pitchers at Pensacola Catholic High School could have been great. Against the Red Sox last weekend. We couldn't. Yeah, yeah.

[Rachel Maddow]

We had two and a half major leaguers in the last week.

[Joe Scarborough]

Oh, we're horrible.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yes, absolutely.

[Joe Scarborough]

How do you end up a season that way?

[Rachel Maddow]

No, there's serious roster improvements to be made. So the Yankees not done. They still. They have a shot. They come home, but they're down in a best of five. Down the first two, and they got crushed in both.

[Joe Scarborough]

They really got crushed. But at least we have the Jets. We'll always have the Jets.

[Rachel Maddow]

There we go.

[Joe Scarborough]

If you're a New York fan. So, anyway, we also have with us, columnist and associated for the Washington Post, David Ignatius. David, the Washington football team. I'm scrambling the commanders this year. The command was back.

[David Ignatius]

Yeah, Jaden Daniels was back. The team bounced back from an awful first quarter and just rolled. And so yet we're not taking any guff from anybody about nobody. Our sports teams in Washington, nobody.

[Joe Scarborough]

Now all you need to do is get back to rfk, where, you know, the. The Washington football team scores a touchdown, everybody jumps up and down, and the stadium moves. That would be very exciting. We also have senior writer for the Dispatch and columnist of Bloomberg Opinion, David Drucker. David will be invited to insert any sports story, any story regarding a historic breakthrough in Middle east peace at any point in any answer. But, Mika, let's start right there because, you know, we don't want to overstate anything right now, but things are lining up in such a way right now in the Middle East. There is an opportunity for a breakthrough that we haven't had in quite some time.

[Morning Joe Host]

We'll start there. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says peace talks between Hamas and Israel are making progress, but the war in Gaza is not yet over. On Meet the Press, he confirmed Hamas has accepted President Trump's hostage release framework, with negotiations continuing in Cairo today. Both Sides agree Hamas will not govern Gaza under Trump's 20 point peace plan backed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump posted on social media yesterday that talks have been successful, quote, very successful, but warned that delays could be could bring massive bloodshed. Despite ongoing negotiations. Israeli airstrikes killed 65 people in Gaza over the weekend, according to the Hamas run Health Ministry ministry. Axios has new reporting on President Trump's phone call on Friday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It came after Hamas initially agreed to release all the hostages. Axios reporting that Trump called Netanyahu to discuss what he saw as good news. But according to a US Official, Netanyahu felt differently, telling Trump this is nothing to celebrate and that it doesn't mean anything. Trump then reportedly fired back. I don't know why you're always so effing negative. This is a win, take it.

[Joe Scarborough]

And that. And that of course, reported by a reporter for Axios who talks to Donald Trump regularly almost every day. You get a sense almost that it was Donald Trump who report, we don't know this, but this is somebody root with ties to the White House. And it sounds, it lines up with my reporting too that we've been talking about a growing impatience with Netanyahu. So given a deal here, Richard, where basically there's been shuttle diplomacy back and forth, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, going back and forth since UN week trying to get this thing done. And they just looked at each other and basically said, the Qataris, we have your back. You take care of Hamas, we're going to take care of Israel and here we are.

[Richard Haass]

I think the stars are aligning, not for peace, but as you said Joe correctly, for a breakthrough. I think there's a pretty good chance now, which is not something we would have said anytime over the last two years for a deal, hostage for prisoners, a ceasefire. Israelis pull back to some still to be determined line. I think there's probably some more aid going in. I think there's a pretty good chance we get that the rest of the deal. Will you eliminate Hamas? No. Will you get every Hamas fighter to give up his weapons? No. No way to do that. No way to mind that. Will you get serious peace talks underway? No. But could you get a kind of mini deal? I think there's a pretty good chance. And then I think the next big thing will probably be Israeli elections sometime in the first three, four months of next year. And Bibi Netanyahu, who was really forced by Donald Trump to accept this deal, will basically try to make it his own and basically say, first I won the war, then I got this breakthrough and I got the hostages.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, that's why it was so fascinating, Netanyahu at first pushing back, then after he saw that Donald Trump had cornered him, and that's what the administration said, we got him cornered, told me this weekend we have him cornered. And after cornering Netanyahu, Netanyahu starts bragging about his peace deal. So that's a good sign, 100%.

[Richard Haass]

But, yeah, Donald Trump, particularly after the Iran attacks, is by far the most popular politician in Israel. And just given the whole backdrop of US Aid and so forth, I think Bibi Netanyahu, in a funny sort of way, finally met someone who plays the same game that Bibi Netanyahu plays.

[Joe Scarborough]

Right? So, David Ignatius, it's very interesting, a lot of people reporting that this week, that, that really the breakthrough actually was Netanyahu's mistake of attacking Qatar. And when that happened, that gave Donald Trump the leverage he needed to go to the Qataris and said, we're going to protect you guys. And in return for protecting you guys, this is what we need you to say to Hamas. And again, the conditions that Hamas, we talked about this on Friday, you've accepted, amount basically to a surrender, don't they?

[David Ignatius]

They do. Although, as we're discovering today, the details of that surrender are still unresolved and are difficult. Exactly how Hamas will be disarmed in the end is up to the Hamas fighters in the field in Gaza. It's not up to the negotiators who've been meeting with Qatari and Egyptian diplomats outside of Gaz. And similarly, the details of Israeli troop withdrawal, what percentage of Israelis will withdraw, where will they withdraw from? The fine points that really are decisive in the end in getting a peace deal at last are still outstanding. There's a big group meeting in Cairo today to try to resolve those issues. To me, Joe, the situation was summed up well by Israeli columnist Nehum Barnea, well known in Israel and to. To Americans who follow the Middle east, who said, Trump doesn't make threats to Bibi, he gives him orders. And that's the way it's looked, I think, in recent days. Trump has been the dominant figure in these negotiations. And as we've seen, Netanyahu has really no choice but to at least nominally go along, as has Hamas. Hamas has nominally said, we're on board. But we'll see today in Cairo just how difficult some of the remaining details are.

[Joe Scarborough]

And the devil Jonathan's always in the details. Marco Rubio, yesterday Saying, I think it was on Face the Nation, hey, we don't have peace yet. This is where the negotiations come through. And again, that shuttle diplomacy. Kushner, Wyckoff, the Americans, Israelis, everybody there. What is so fascinating, though, this time is you usually have Israel isolated in the world now, you know, when Hamas was trying to figure out whether to do this or not, you had the European allies first saying, we support this still. Then you had Arab countries saying, we support this deal. Hamas really has nowhere to go here.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yeah. There's such widespread public pressure.

[Richard Haass]

Take this.

[Rachel Maddow]

Take this deal. And there's a sense. I talked to some White House folks over the weekend as well. They do think, like Netanyahu overplayed his hand. The strike in Doha, certainly. Also, word had gotten back to the White House that Netanyahu was telling allies in the region that he was giving orders to Trump that he was in charge and the president would have to follow his lead. You can imagine how well that sat behind the Resolute desk. So there's been a change here where Trump and his team have really feel like they've been able to put the screws a little bit to Netanyahu. They forced the apology in Doha, and now they feel like they're close to getting Netanyahu to take this deal. I'm struck by the language we heard from the weekend of Trump telling Netanyahu to take the win. That's the exact phrase that President Biden gave Netanyahu more than a year ago, October 2024, right around this time, Netanyahu defied Biden. Then he. Richard, he seems like he's not able to now. Now we know the president. Look, he's overstating things on social media in terms of where this is. That is his want. The secretary of State, I think more reasonable in terms of where things actually are. So walk us through in your estimation, where some tripwires could still be. Because we have had. We've been close before, and something always seems to go wrong.

[Richard Haass]

I think the tripwires are. How much of this overall 20 points you try to get accomplished in order to get the first point, first few points imp. That's always the challenge. Jonathan, in a negotiation. Are you willing to separate out the first few points? The hostage return, the prisoner release, cease fire, Israeli pullback, which I think is all doable from basically the next 15 points. If you basically say everything has to be agreed to and implemented or begun to be before anything to be implemented, this thing is still.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, we've got to figure out what does the Arab peacekeeping force look like? Why do the conditions on the ground that have to be met first before, like you said, we go to those next steps that will determine how Gaza looks over the next five years.

[Richard Haass]

But you have to do that now. Joe, my point is simply that I think you almost want to separate this into two packages, a kind of mini package on this initial exchange and cease fire, then all the more far reaching, ambitious stuff, including the ultimate negotiations about peace. So my guess is you carve a small deal and I think that can happen. The only thing I disagree with, I think for Hamas, it's really an interesting situation. They're being pressured by the local population to agree and the Arab countries, my guess is Hamas will agree to this.

[Mike Johnson]

But it.

[Richard Haass]

That doesn't mean they've surrendered. Let me just sort of, I think Hamas can survive if you will, to fight figuratively and literally another day. You can't get rid of them. They'll blend into the population, they will hide weapons. So I think what will happen is we'll get through this, but it doesn't mean that we've in any way resolved many of the basics of Gaza, much less the larger Palestinian issue. But what Donald Trump wants, if you will, is this win. He wants to get this breakthrough, which is an important breakthrough.

[Joe Scarborough]

Get the hostages home, get the hostages back. That's a huge one.

[Richard Haass]

And get a cease fire. That's an enormous accomplishment. Everything but it's something.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah. You know, Mika, over the weekend the Washington Post released a poll that showed we're talking about the pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu for possibly overreaching. Washington Post poll that. I've never seen anything like it in America. Just stark, stark disagreement with Netanyahu and Israel on their policies from Jewish Americans.

[Morning Joe Host]

Their numbers are staggering and they play a role in this. In a minute we're going to speak to a former Middle east negotiator, has worked for presidents on both sides of the aisle, has many insights onto the different angles into this problem. But here to the polls, many American Jews sharply disapprove of Israel's conduct in the war in Gaza. The latest Washington Post poll of American Jews finds that 61% say Israel has committed war crimes against Palestinians and nearly 40% say the country is guilty of genocide against the Palestinians. American Jews are particularly unhappy with the current Israeli government. 68% give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership negative marks, with 48% calling it poor, a 20 point increase from five years ago.

[Joe Scarborough]

You know, David Drucker, so often you will have people on the right, you'll have Republicans saying, oh, those Democrats, they're anti Semitic. Or you have people on both sides have always said that if you're against Israel's policies means you must be anti Semitic. Well, in this case, I mean, the numbers are just staggering. 61% of American Jews think that Netanyahu's government has committed war crimes in Gaza. Almost 40% believe they have committed genocide. And as we've been saying on this show for a very long time, we fear. I fear. Let me just say, I fear, as a longtime supporter of Israel, that the Netanyahu government, for whatever gains they make, are causing irreparable political harm here in the United States among the one country that has been a steadfast defender of Israel since 1948.

[David Drucker]

Yeah, it's been a real challenge, I think, for Benjamin Netanyahu, and I don't know that he's fully cognizant of it. I've talked to some people in Israel and some people feel he's aware and some people. People feel that there's just a lot of tunnel vision going on. On the one hand, I don't think this deal would be in the offing without all of the risks that paid off that the Netanyahu government took in going after Israel's enemies, including Iran. On the other hand, there has just been growing dissatisfaction in the United States politically among voters here with how the Netanyahu government has conducted its military affair affairs. I talked to Democratic operatives who generally who care about Israel and US Support for Israel, who blame this on Netanyahu himself. They go back to Netanyahu's address to Congress during the Obama administration. President Obama very notably did not invite Netanyahu to give that speech. Congressional Republicans did because they were trying to defeat the Iran deal, discouraged President Obama from signing the jcpoa. And that was the first time an Israeli prime minister had really become a negative figure in the eyes of Democrats. Then we see over the past five, six, seven years a real change on the American right, where you just have much less support for military involvement overseas and US Global leadership abroad. And instead of that just being limited to events like the war in Ukraine that Russia caused unprovoked, instead of that being limited to how we handle China and its designs on Taiwan, that has now bled into American military and diplomatic support for Israel. All of this is to say is that it's not surprising to me that we would see a poll like this, particularly when Jewish voters generally have always been center left, have always voted for Democratic candidates at Every level. And that means that I think the Israeli government and supporters of Israel have to be more cognizant of how the government's actions are being received here. Because when you look at the diminishing support for Israel among other Western nations, the US really is sort of the last line of support. And they just can't afford to take it for granted.

[Joe Scarborough]

You know, there's so many misconceptions in American politics about Jewish voters. I mean, it's running up to the election last time. The Democrats are constantly thinking that Republicans are about to seize the majority of Jewish voters because I guess Donald Trump says so, it's 70%, it's 70%, 75%, 80%. Every four years. I mean, every four years it's constant. But David Ignatius, these numbers are not constant. I mean, I was shocked to see that over 60% of Jewish Americans believe Benjamin Netanyahu and his government has committed war crimes. Israel has committed war crimes. Jewish Americans coming to that conclusion, it's staggering. And again, the long term implications for now, this like group on the left there, you know, people on the left and on the right now who are hostile to American support of Israel, that has grown. It is no longer the extremists on both sides that is starting to move toward the center. I mean, the long term implications for Israel and support for Israel in the United States, if, like me, you're a supporter of Israel, that's pretty devastating.

[David Ignatius]

So these numbers are stunning, as you say. I can't help but think of the way in which Netanyahu, as he was pushing Democrats, began to call more and more on support from Republicans. The moment where he defied Obama and made the address to Congress with Republican support was a very partisan move, something that went against, against Israel's enormous success in speaking to all Americans across all different parties. You know, that was the center of US Support for Israel for a generation and Netanyahu went right at that. And so it's part of what we're seeing. Also, I think watching wars on television as we've watched scenes of the bombing of Gaza is just enormously painful for people. I remember that during 1982 and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, where people watched on TV a war I was covering in the midst of, and their impressions back home, the anger, the disappointment was palpable. And that's part of what's happened as American Jews and the whole world has watched this war. However justified it may be to go after Hamas after October 7, the images just piled up day after day. And it is Extraordinary, Joe, as you said, 61% of American Jews saying they think war crimes were committed. I thought I'd never see a number like that.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah, I thought I never would either. And I think what's so damning is the fact that, yes, after, after the heinous terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel, against raping Israeli women and burning Israeli grandmothers, and you just go down the list of the heinous that they did, killing children in front of parents, killing parents in front of children, the whole world came to their side. What's been so devastating for the cause of Israel over the past year, year and a half is you have had Israeli military leaders and Israeli intelligence officers telling Netanyahu and his government there is no more reason to fight a war in Gaza right now. We've achieved our military operations. You need to stop because it's just causing additional suffering and hurting Israel, hurting the cause of Israel. Netanyahu, according to the New York Times and a lot of other people who know him, is he is committed to a forever war because that's what's in his political interest.

[Morning Joe Host]

That's the worry.

[Joe Scarborough]

And that is what has cost the nation of Israel right now.

[Morning Joe Host]

We have a lot to get to this morning. In a moment, we're going to talk to Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's a former Middle east negotiator. For a little bit more on this. Also still ahead, where things stand this morning on the government shutdown still happening after another round of votes failed on Friday. Plus, we'll bring you Ali Vidali's Sit down with Speaker Mike Johnson. You're watching MORNING joe. We'll be right back.

[Ali Vitali]

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[Mike Johnson]

Clorox toilet wand. It's all in one. Hey, what does all in one mean? The Caddy, the wand, the preloaded pad. There's a cleaner in there, inside the pad.

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[Mike Johnson]

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[Rachel Maddow]

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[Morning Joe Host]

Welcome back. Let's bring in senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aaron Daniel David Miller, he was a US Middle east negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations. And Ritter Haas, you take the first question.

[Richard Haass]

Good morning, Aaron. So you've been involved in this for years. What is it you think at this point can actually be accomplished? What's the limit of ambition and where do both sides have to say we can't really accomplish that now. We have to, quote, unquote, take a win, but it's going to be a limited win.

[Aaron David Miller]

Yeah, Richard, I think you laid it out pretty well. I think that a deal is likely to return hostages, living and dead, although these negotiations are likely to have only two speeds, slow and slower. Hamas needs to find the dead, dead Palestinians, which some of which they don't Israelis, some of which they don't know where they are. There may be other Palestinian groups that can that control some of the living hostages. There's the withdrawal line, which they're going to fight over. But I think you're right, there is a reasonable possibility within the next week or so that you could see the return of the 48 hostage living and dead in exchange probably for a diminution, though not an end to a comprehensive Israeli military strategy. Anything else? The international stabilization force, technocratic government decommissioning demilitarization of the of the Gaza Strip. Richard, I think that's tethered, frankly, to a galaxy far, far away and not to the sort of cruel and unforgiving realities of the broader Israeli Palestinian conflict back here on planet Earth.

[David Ignatius]

Aaron, this is David Ignatius wanted to jump in with a similar question. As Richard says, you've been following us for many decades. I'm just curious whether you're do you think, as we have a coalition now of Arab supporters for President Trump's peace plan that stretches across the Gulf, Egypt, Jordan, whether Israel's hope that it will finally enter an era in which there is broad normalization of relations with Israel is close once the war ends?

[Aaron David Miller]

I mean, I think, David, frankly and Richard knows this and so do you. What the Israeli Palestinian conflict has been missing for decades now is the absence of leaders. Leaders who are masters of their political houses, not prisoners of their constituencies. Leaders who are able to recognize their own constituencies, needs and requirements, but also reach out to the other side. You don't have any leadership like that in Israel today among the Palestinians. The Palestinian national movement, frankly, is in crisis. There'll be no effort for this foreseeable future to choose Palestinians to choose their leaders. There won't be elections in Gaza or the West Bank. And the unpalatable choice for Palestinians is between Hamas and I agree with Richard, Hamas will survive as an insurgency capable of, until proven otherwise, capable of being the most dominant Palestinian force in Gaza and seeking to influence events through co optation and intimidation. So without leaders to pull the wagon, it's really going to be hard to take what I think is a real opening here and broaden it. One additional point, and again, Richard will appreciate this for sure. What you saw in terms of Donald Trump's when Naomi said that Trump doesn't threaten, he give, gives orders. This is unprecedented in the history of the US Israeli relationship. Jim Baker banned Benjamin Netanyahu from the State Department. Bill Clinton, exasperated during his first meeting with Netanyahu, came out and blurted, who's the effing superpower here? Well, guess what? Donald Trump is the first American president, without exception, that answered that question for Netanyahu.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah, he certainly did.

[Aaron David Miller]

I think last point is that Benjamin Netanyahu is not thinking about returning hostages. He's not thinking about any war in Gaza. He's thinking about only one thing and that is how do I run an effective election campaign, probably for the spring of 2026. And he needs Donald Trump to win.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah. And that, as Robert Frost would say, it's made all the difference. Former Middle east negotiator Aaron Miller.

[Mike Johnson]

Thank you.

[Joe Scarborough]

David Miller, thank you so much. Yeah, it is pretty remarkable. And same thing with Joe Biden. Every day just cursing Netanyahu as Donald Trump has for the first six months. But that again, it was the strike against Qatar and several other things that really made the big difference in those.

[Richard Haass]

Polls you were talking about. Part of it.

[Mike Johnson]

Bibi.

[Richard Haass]

Netanyahu cannot go over Donald Trump's head to the American people.

[Joe Scarborough]

No.

[Richard Haass]

And he can't go over Donald Trump's head. You know why? Cuz Donald Trump is in the White House.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah.

[Richard Haass]

If Donald Trump were not in the White House, he could go, he could support Bibi. Right now it's almost like Nixon going to China. Only Nixon could do it. Only Nixon didn't have Nixon to worry about. Donald Trump does not have to worry about being out flanked.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, he can't make it a partisan thing either like Netanyahu did, John, with, with Barack Obama where he said I'm going to go to a Republican Congress and play off their hatred of a Democratic president. Now you've got Republicans running everything in Washington, D.C. who's he going to play Donald Trump off of? The 70% of Democrats are, you know, probably even higher who think that Benjamin Netanyahu is committing war crimes.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yeah.

[Joe Scarborough]

Again, as a top Trump administration official told me this weekend, we have Netanyahu boxed in. And if he doesn't think we do, you know, just have him try something.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yeah, the president's patience has run out, I think is clear. There's nowhere for him to go. I mean, there are certainly staunch supporters of Israel among the Republican Party on the Hill, but they're not going to defy the president here. You know, the Democrats, as we poll after poll long time suggested, they're broadly unhappy with Netanyahu and they want him out. So he is boxed in. And I think this is a moment where at least for a short term deal, there, there is hope. You know, it's not perhaps going to be the greatest deal in civilization as we've heard from some quarters, but there is a chance here to get to the at minimum as the two year anniversary of the attacks are upon us.

[Joe Scarborough]

To get those hostages one step at a time.

[Morning Joe Host]

All right, coming up, we're going to get the very latest on the government shutdown, which is now in day six. And we're going to bring you Ali Vitale's interview with speaker Mike Johnson. That's in just a moment.

[Mike Johnson]

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[Mike Johnson]

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[Rachel Maddow]

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[Mike Johnson]

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[Joe Scarborough]

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[Rachel Maddow]

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[Mike Johnson]

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[Mike Johnson]

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[Joe Scarborough]

Thank you plenty. It's all because of the Democrats. The Democrats are causing the loss of a lot of jobs with their It's a shutdown. It's their shutdown, not our shutdown. It's their shutdown.

[Mike Johnson]

I've encouraged my Democratic members to sit and talk to Republicans.

[Rachel Maddow]

It's always good when Democrats and Republicans to each other.

[Mike Johnson]

But two points.

[Rachel Maddow]

First, in those conversations, the Republicans offered nothing.

[Mike Johnson]

But second, the only way this will ultimately be solved is if five people sit together in a room and solve it.

[Morning Joe Host]

The federal government remains shut down this morning with no clear endgame in sight. MSNBC senior Capitol Hill correspondent Ali Vitale sat down yesterday with House Speaker Mike Johnson for an update on where things.

[Ali Vitali]

Stand at the center of this debate. Feels like a debate over health care. And you've said repeatedly that addressing Obamacare subsidies is a December issue. But families are making their open enrollment decisions in October and November. So why shouldn't Congress give families some degree of certainty in a landscape where their premiums could double if this issue isn't taken care of?

[Mike Johnson]

I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't do that. What I'm saying is we have to keep the lights on in the building so that we can have those discussions and debates. Republicans have made no assertions about how that will wind up. But December 31st is when the subsidies end. And so we have effectively three months to negotiate. You know, and the White House and in the halls of Congress, that's like an eternity. So we need the month of October to figure this out. There's a lot of thought that's gone into that on both sides of the aisle. But we need folks in good faith to come around the table and have that discussion. And we can't do it when the government is shut down. We got to remember we sent over a very clean, very simple continuing resolution just to buy a little more time so that appropriators in both parties can have their negotiations on appropriations. We just ran out of time. We need more. And that's all this is about.

[Ali Vitali]

But you're going to discuss it and potentially make a decision on these ACA subsidies after families have made their decisions. How is that fair to them?

[Mike Johnson]

Well, not necessarily because we have the entire month of October. Most of the notices for the insurance companies go out in early November, and that's a few weeks ahead of us. Now, as soon as we get the government open, the sooner the better, so that those things can be resolved. And that's what we're saying. Now, look, Chuck Schumer and all the Democrats who voted against opening the government right now have said all this themselves. Chuck Schumer gave passionate speeches as recently as March of this year. I mean, roll the tape. He's the one that voted for the exact same cr, the exact same spending levels just six months ago and said that we could not possibly shut the government down. He's changed his tune. And, I mean, I'm not trying to be, you know, mean about this. Right. I respect Chuck Schumer as a person, but he's got a political problem that he's trying to solve using government funding for it. He's afraid. This is very clear and obvious to everybody. He's afraid he's going to get a challenge from left flank in his next reelection bid. So he needs to show a fight against President Trump and the Republicans, and he's chosen government funding for that. I think it's selfish. I think it's. It's foolish, and I think it's hurting real Americans. We need to get the lights turned back on so we can finish the discussions on these substantive debates.

[Ali Vitali]

Why should Democrats believe that this is going to come back around, that if they solve the government shutdown now that there's a trust between Republicans and Democrats, there's not really an open line of communication here at all?

[Mike Johnson]

Well, there is an open line of communication. The president himself really been happening. The President himself had the four leaders in the Oval Office for the first time, five, six days ago, because this was the first time that the President needed to engage with the leaders on a funding matter. And we'd been keeping the lights on and keeping everything going pretty well until then. But Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries in that meeting showed no willingness to come along and do the right thing to keep the government open. The president and everyone is open to negotiating all these issues. That's our process. We work in a deliberative public body. You got free 435 members in the House and 100 in the Senate. There's a lot of opinions that you cover every day. Right. You got to get those people working together to build consensus on these big issues because we have small margins of majorities in both chambers and in the Senate, of course, you need 60 votes. There's only 53 Republicans in the majority party. It requires everybody to work together. I'm heartened that we were doing that on Appropriations. We had Republicans and Democrats in the Senate and the House working together to move those bills through the Senate. They passed three bills off the floor. It's the first time in years they've done that. This is encouraging. We're getting Congress to work the way it's supposed to again. We just need more time.

[Ali Vitali]

However slowly it's working. And because we have limited time, I'm sorry for cutting you off, but bottom line, should families plan on paying more next year for health care?

[Mike Johnson]

Boy, I hope not. I mean, we're working to bring costs down. We did that. We demonstrated it in the working families tax cut. The one big, beautiful bill where we. We didn't cut Medicaid, we shored it up. We supported it. Why? Because we eliminated fraud, waste and abuse. And don't take my word for it. Look at the CBO's analysis. The congressional Budget Office says we're going to save 185 billion dol just in waste and abuse, which is going to make the program work better for the people who depend upon it.

[Ali Vitali]

They also say millions of Americans will lose access to Medicaid because of that. But I want.

[Mike Johnson]

Not Americans. Not Americans. Illegal aliens.

[Ali Vitali]

And I know that that's a misleading point here. No, we don't know that. With legal status. Not people who are here illegally.

[Mike Johnson]

Not true. Remember that under the four years the Biden administration, when they opened the border wide and we had about 20 million illegal aliens come into the country, they just granted asylum and parole status.

[Ali Vitali]

I recognize what you were saying, but it's people who were granted ASYL or parole, and so they were working through the process legally. But I want to get you on the list.

[Mike Johnson]

We can debate that at length.

[Ali Vitali]

Yeah, we could debate it at length. And if you want to stick around, I'm more than happy to do it.

[Mike Johnson]

Which are good.

[Ali Vitali]

But you've invoked the president a few times now. He looms so large over this entire process. Your colleague Thomas Massie, though, has said that you're only speaker for as long as President Trump wants you to be. Does he have a point?

[Mike Johnson]

No, he doesn't have a point. We've been demonstrating this over and over. I've been speaker for two years now. It's not a job I ever aspired to. Frankly, didn't know I'd have it. But I'm trying to keep steady hands at the wheel in very turbulent times. Trying to work with in good faith with people on both sides of the aisle. And we've done that. And if there was someone else that wanted to be speaker, I'd hand them the gavel. But right now, we've got to guide the country through these dire straits. These are turbulent times. It's wartime, effectively, around the globe, there's very serious, dangerous matters at hand, and we've got to keep steady leadership through it. So Thomas Massie has been after me from day one. He's after the president. He's got a bone to pick. I'm not really sure what the source of all of that is, but it's his issue and not mine.

[Ali Vitali]

You were in that meeting that the president had with the four corners of Congress at the White House. When I was listening to Democrats talk about what went on in that meeting, they made it sound like the president was sympathetic to the idea of extending ACA subsidies. So if he came to you and said, let's make a deal on this, would you work against him?

[Mike Johnson]

Well, no. I mean, no. What was said in that meeting? They might not have told you, Schumer and Jeffries, but Leader Thune turned to his colleague Chuck Schumer, and he said there would need to be some reforms because there's a lot of waste and fraud in that process, and it doesn't have adequate protection. And there's some things that could be done to make it work better. The president nodded in agreement. I mean, no one's made any final assumption or assertions on that.

[Ali Vitali]

So it kind of sounds like there might be something to negotiate.

[Mike Johnson]

Well, that's been the whole point. We need the time to do that, and we have the time. But you have to have government open, because in the middle of all this, remember, real people are feeling real pain. We've cut off medical and health services to veterans. We have. The WIC program has stalled. Women Infants and Children needing their nutrition, supplemental funding and all the rest. FEMA shut down health insurance. I mean, flood insurance programs in the middle of a hurricane season. And you have half the civilian workforce on furlough right now. This is no way to run a railroad.

[Ali Vitali]

And yet people are looking at this. The polling is early, but it's there. A Washington Post poll saying that 47% of Americans are right now blaming you, your party and the president, as opposed to 30% who are blaming Democrats for this shutdown.

[Mike Johnson]

We've got polls on the other side of that as well. This isn't about a blame game. It's about making sure the government is Working for the people. And Chuck Schumer is the one holding up the votes. I mean, we passed a clean cr. I didn't have any partisan poison priorities or poison pills or gimmicks or tricks in that. I sent it over in good faith. It's 24 pages. Go look at it. And look. What Chuck Schumer sent back is a counter proposal. He wants to add $1.5 trillion in new spending to a 77 week funding stopgap measure trying to claw back. And he wants to claw back the $50 billion we set out for Rural Hospital.

[Ali Vitali]

But when you look at the fact that the President is tweeting pictures of Democratic leadership in sombreros when he's saying that Russ Vogt, the head of the omb, is the grim reaper with a scythe. Is Republicans messaging job harder? Is that how you would be messaging this?

[Mike Johnson]

I think the President's team is using social media and all of the tools there, memes and all the rest.

[Ali Vitali]

But does that help you?

[Mike Johnson]

No. I think what they're doing is pointing out the absurdity of Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries political position. But in the middle of this, real people are harmed. And I can tell you because I talk daily, almost hourly with the President. I've spoken with Russ Vogt in the last 48 hours. They take no pleasure in this. They don't want to do this. They're put in this position by the Democrats in the Senate. They're the ones that chose to shut the government down and to put this responsibility on the Office of Management.

[Ali Vitali]

But do you see how some Americans might feel like when they see those AI videos, however they're leveraging social media, that memes don't designate a seriousness about the gravity of this moment. Does it help you to have them doing that?

[Mike Johnson]

You can follow my social media. I don't do memes and jokes against my colleagues.

[Ali Vitali]

But his following is bigger than yours.

[Mike Johnson]

Yes, a little bigger than mine. That's right. But I mean, look, I'm working on the policy. There's politics to this as well. Right. And those are both components. Now we live in a social media age and people use it. I think President Trump uses it as effectively as anybody ever has. And I told my friend Hakeem, who is my friend, I said, man, don't pay attention to it, don't respond to it, because it makes it worse. I learned that the hard way a long time ago. I mean, 48 hours ago, Gavin Newsom was trolling me. He painted me as a little Yellow minion with big glasses and overalls. I laughed at it. I don't respond to it. Well, he's the governor of California. He wants to be the president. I hear that the key is for all of us, everybody on both sides, don't play into it. Just do your job and we'll get through and get the policy negotiated, I.

[Ali Vitali]

Think, to get to the bottom line. Americans that I have spoken to look at this and they say, you're the speaker of the House. Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House. Do you see how blaming Democrats might ring hollow to them?

[Mike Johnson]

No. Because everybody who studies civics know you got to have 60 votes in the Senate. We only have 53 Republicans in the Senate. We must have Democrats to do it now. You know, three of them have already come over well, two Democrats and an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats. We're hoping that five Moore suddenly wake up and say, this doesn't make sense. We should not punish good law abiding, tax paying citizens for us to have political fights in Washington. Turn the lights back on, open the government so that we can get to the resolution of all these other issues. That's all we're saying. And that's all Chuck Schumer said his entire career until about last week.

[Ali Vitali]

I have one more question for you because I am beginning to get the wrap. But realistically, how does this end?

[Mike Johnson]

I hope, hope that some Democrats in the Senate will wake up and say, enough is enough. Let's turn the lights back on and let's get into these vigorous debates about the subsidies and all the rest. That's what needs to happen. That's the only thing that can happen. People say, why aren't you negotiating with Democrats? I literally, Ali, don't have anything to negotiate. I didn't put any of my Republican priorities on the cr so I can't pull those off and say, gee, is it better now? Can you vote for it? I sent over to the Senate exactly what they voted on the last and now suddenly they want to have a political fight. Why again? I mean, this is frankly, this is the truth. Chuck Schumer wants political cover. That's what this is about.

[Ali Vitali]

I'm sorry, my actual last one. Otherwise I think Corinne will murder me. But you oppose. I want to just pivot to something else that we talk about a lot on the Hill. You oppose the discharge petition that has been working its way through the building. But 77% of Americans and 67% of Republicans say they want full transparency on the Epstein files with appropriate so do I. So then how are they wrong to say that this discharge petition is the fastest way of getting there?

[Mike Johnson]

The discharge petition is a moot point. Now, the House Oversight Committee has some of the toughest bulldog Democrats and Republicans in Congress. They're all working together for full transparency of the Epstein files. They're doing it right now.

[Ali Vitali]

Why is it taking so long?

[Mike Johnson]

Well, because they had to send subpoenas. The subpoenas go through the House committee process. The DOJ is in full compliance. 34,000 documents have been turned over already. And they're done. Yes, but now they're digging into the Epstein estate files, which is housed in New York. The lawyers are up there on the Oversight Committee going through, coming through, that they're about to have more and more tranches of this coming out. But they are appropriately redacting the innocent victims names. We think as many as a thousand young women may have been victims of this, and we need to protect them.

[Morning Joe Host]

And the voice said that they want.

[Ali Vitali]

Transparency on this for their own healing and closure. So do you feel that the longer you wait this out, the harder it is for the people at the heart of this?

[Mike Johnson]

We're not waiting this out. We're moving it out as fast as the legal process allows. And more and more of this will be coming out daily, weekly as we go. The problem we had with this discharge petition is it didn't have adequate protections for all those innocent victims.

[Ali Vitali]

Survivors disagreed. They said it was fine by them.

[Mike Johnson]

You heard from about a dozen of them who wanted to come forward and put their names and faces on it. But remember, we're talking about as many as 1,000 victims, and many of them do not want to be ducks. They do not want their identifications, and you've got to be very careful to protect them. Government has a responsibility to protect victims who have already been harmed. But I'm for maximum disclosure. I want every page of this out been consistent in that we have to do both things. I do, absolutely. I do believe that Donald Trump's not implicated in this. If he was, you'd have known about it a long time ago. He wants to protect the innocent victims. He and I have talked about this. He's very passionate about that. But he's for maximum disclosure and his DOJ is shown that they're turning everything over and it's all coming out. So it's in process right now.

[Ali Vitali]

Well, it all comes to a head when the House comes back and Adelita Grijalva is inevitably sworn in. I think many people are waiting for you to do that, haven't you yet?

[Mike Johnson]

Because we're not in session. But when we get back, we'll do that in regular order. And I congratulate her. She's filling her father's seat. He had a long career in Congress and I'm sure she will as well. So we look forward to that.

[Ali Vitali]

I appreciate you giving me a few extra minutes as well. And for coming on with us, Speaker Mike Johnson, thank you.

[Mike Johnson]

Good to see you.

[Ali Vitali]

Thank you. Good to see you.

[Joe Scarborough]

So, so much to cover here. A Democrat wins an election not sworn in, she will be the deciding vote to actually do what Republicans and Democrats alike across America want and release the Epstein files. There's a lot to cover here. Let's first of all give you a little bit more time to talk about just quite frankly, some disinformation on Medicaid cuts. The Congressional budget office says $911 billion in Medicaid cuts by this Republican so called big beautiful bill. That's the largest cut in the history of Medicaid. The Congressional Budget office also says 11 million Americans will lose their health insurance because of those cuts in the so called big beautiful bill, which is extraordinarily unpopular for good reason. And finally, I, I'm sorry, I had to laugh when the speaker was said, Rust does not enjoy this, though. This is exactly what he wants and is exactly what he promised in 2025 when he said that something along the lines of their job was to make federal workers lives miserable.

[Ali Vitali]

Joe, I think you did a lot of the fact check work there that I was frankly also trying to do in real time. I mean, you heard when I offered to the speaker that but the CBO also scores that millions of people are going to lose their health care. And he fired back with that misleading point around undocumented immigrants and this being really an immigration story. And I understand why Republicans are trying to redefine the playing field in that way because that is a more politically.

[Joe Scarborough]

Salient issue, though, as you've said and as we've all said, illegal immigrants, not true, can't get the Affordable Care Act. They can't get medicine, Medicare, they can't get Medicaid. I mean, it is again, it is just grossly misleading and again tries to brush by the fact that 11 million Americans are going to lose their health care because of this big beautiful bill.

[Ali Vitali]

Which is exactly why I had one Democratic congressman on my show this morning to react to the point that the speaker made when I asked if, bottom line, Americans should plan to pay more for their health care next year. And he didn't say no. He said Republicans have tried to make costs lower, but his exact quote was, boy, I hope not. And that's why the Democratic lawmaker on my show, Congressman Greg Landsman, sort of teed off on that and started listing all of the proposals that Republicans have enacted through the so called big beautiful bill around health care that are causing really a cascading number of effects, not just for people who use Medicaid, but also for people in senior living homes, in other, in rural homes, hospitals, places that are already starting to see layoffs and closures because of what is written in this bill, even if it hasn't exactly set in yet. I will say in this interview, I thought it was very striking that we went on Capitol Hill from Democrats saying we want to have a negotiation on ACA subsidies and Republicans sort of not responding or closing the door on it. Now, at least Democrats have, I think, shifted the window on the Hill that there has to be some kind of negotiation on ACA substance subsidies. Obviously, they're not willing to cede their point quite yet. They see that they have leverage. They see that there's public polling that bolsters their position. But the idea that the speaker of the House is now telling me, yeah, we have to have those negotiations, that means that the door is no longer closed. And it does mean that Democrats are shifting the window of what's up for negotiation during this process by continuing to hold out their votes. And you've got moderate senators like Jeanne Shaheen and others who are trying to press for some kind of bipartisan negotiation on this issue. They're pointing to the fact that that makes political sense for Republicans and Democrats alike. So I think that in this interview, the fact that that is so on the table and that the speaker, although I don't quite get the point because the negotiation is not going to take a second. People are going to make their open enrollment decisions and then see whatever Congress has decided on this. But I do think that's a shift in the negotiating space and what's possible here.

[Joe Scarborough]

All right, MSNBC senior Capitol Hill correspondent respondent Ali Vitali, thank you so much for bringing us the interview. We greatly appreciate it. David Drucker, this is, this is just me talking here. Again, it's a Republican with political battle scars on his back. Back when I used to be a Republican. Government shutdowns never end well for Republicans. And in this case, you actually, as long as the shutdown is going on, we're talking about health care and Republicans can do the. Look over there. Look at the bird in the tree. Look at illegal immigrants. But the numbers, the CBO numbers are hard and fast. $500 billion slashed in health care supplements for Americans. 11 million Americans will lose health insurance because of this Republican vote. And 100. I checked. $150 billion cut from medical providers. That means rural health care, nursing homes. That means rural hospitals. That means pediatric care for people in the heartland of America. I mean, I understand what the Republicans are saying and what the Republicans are trying to do as far as the logic, because we've said it for, look, we gave them a clean cr and they're wanting to. But that, that never wins today when the debate has shifted over to, oh, yeah, well, you've cut $150 billion from rural hospitals. That's just. Or from, from other health care providers. That's, that's not a winner for Republicans. What, what, what are they, what are they thinking right now? And where does this end up?

[David Drucker]

Well, look, I think they're pretty confident. I think one of the reasons Senate Republicans kept their fundraising events in Sea Island, Georgia, over the weekend was because they feel like they have the political upper hand. But let's look at it this way, Joe. Republicans usually lose these shutdown fights because they're usually the instigators. And voters don't look at leveraging government funding as a legitimate form of political combat, usually. And so what Republicans are doing is running the Democratic playbook, which has proven to work. And that is, as we saw with Ali's interview. Hey, listen, we're open to negotiating this. We agree there's a problem, but we need to get the lights on first. Government should be up and running, and that gives everybody more space to negotiate, and there's no need to do all of this. And once we get into the first week of a shutdown, people dig in, they get a little comfortable with it, and then pretty soon we're into a second week. And then all of a sudden, it becomes not about whatever you're arguing about, but just about pure political power. And I think that's what Democrats have to worry about. But look, if my UCLA Bruins were capable of beating the Penn State, hey, you invited this.

[Joe Scarborough]

But I'm going to say, what a debut for their coach.

[David Drucker]

Yeah. And so sometimes weird things happen. And so what I'm watching is how much of a particular. The president and his team, that is Russ Vote want to be in the shutdown. Because if they're going to use this as a reason for firing workers, not just furloughing them till we can get everybody back to work. You know, that's the usual line, hey, listen, I don't want to do this. If they become active participants because they want to use the shutdown to do their own things, then all of a sudden the political calculation and how voters look at who's responsible, responsible could change. And I think that's something to look at.

[Joe Scarborough]

No doubt about it. Also, look at those UCLA Bruins. What a win. Congratulations. David Drucker, senior writer for the Dispatch, greatly appreciate it. You know, David Ignatius, I know you've been around Washington long enough to see it, just like me. You never know where these shutdowns go. But I will just say it again, as a guy that sat through one is a Republican. They usually turn against Republicans. Republicans. I thought Alan made a very great point. It's hard to be talking about how much you're concerned about workers and how serious you are about health care when you have the president sending out memes that many people consider to be racist, at the very least disrespectful and not serious in the middle of a government shutdown where people are really hurting.

[David Ignatius]

So I thought that, you know, he didn't want to talk about that. What he wanted about to talk talk about was how eager Republicans are to negotiate over and over again. In Ali's interview, he kept making that point. And so I was left with the thought we must be close to the beginning of some behind the scenes conversations if he's as eager to talk about negotiating a way out of this as he sounded. So maybe, Joe, he gets your point. This doesn't end well for Republicans. You know, the fear is it's not going to end well for anybody if it goes on much longer.

[Morning Joe Host]

Yeah, for sure. So coming up, we're going to go through the big weekend in sports, a bad one for New York fans. Pablo Torre joins us with his take from NFL Sunday.

[Joe Scarborough]

You always have the Knicks. There will always be the Knicks.

[Morning Joe Host]

He'll also have the MLB playoffs.

[Mike Johnson]

But Clorox Toilet Wand, it's all in one. Clorox Toilet Wand, it's all in one. Hey, what does all in one mean? The Caddy, the wand, the preloaded pad. There's a cleaner in there inside the pad.

[Ali Vitali]

So Clorox Toilet Wand is all I need to clean a toilet.

[Mike Johnson]

You don't need a bottle of solution to get into this toilet revolution. Clorox Clean feels good. Use as directed.