Morning Joe 11/12/24

Summary

Morning Joe - Episode Summary: November 12, 2024

Hosts: Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, Willie Geist

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1. Introduction

On the November 12, 2024 episode of Morning Joe, hosts Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, and Willie Geist delve into the aftermath of the recent election, analyzing key race outcomes, discussing the implications of President-elect Donald Trump's administration appointments, and exploring the broader impacts on U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics.

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2. Arizona Senate Race and Swing States

The episode opens with a detailed discussion on Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego's unexpected victory in Arizona's Senate race, a state that Donald Trump had previously won convincingly in the presidential election.

Jonathan Lemire highlights the significance of Gallego's win:
"Gallego will take the seat of retiring independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with the Democrats, preventing another GOP gain. He will become the first Latino to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate." [03:51]

Willie Geist emphasizes the importance of earning votes in a competitive state:
"You have to earn every vote." [03:54]

Gallego, speaking after his victory, stated:
"I needed to earn the support of all our resources. And so I went out and I talked to everybody and I also didn't agree with them all the time..." [03:54 - 04:23]

This victory marks the fourth consecutive Democratic win in Arizona's Senate races, signaling a significant shift from its historical conservative stance. The team also references successes in other battleground states where Democrats secured Senate seats despite Trump’s strong performance in the presidential race.

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3. Analysis of Election Results and Trump's Impact

Joe Scarborough provides a nuanced analysis of the election outcomes, noting the strategic strengths and the unprecedented nature of Trump's performance in swing states:

"But this was really looking back and sort of the second look at what happened last week, and this was not a Republican landslide. This was a Trump sweep." [11:23]

Willie Geist adds perspective on the closeness of these victories:
"It was overwhelming in the sense that he won these states. But... this was, as we've been saying for months and months and months, an incredibly close race." [13:04]

The discussion underscores that while Trump secured victories in key swing states, the actual vote margins were tight, indicating that the political battle remains intensely competitive.

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4. Trump's Administration Nominations and Implications

A significant portion of the episode focuses on Trump's appointments to his incoming administration, including potential key figures such as Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, former Congressman Lee Zeldin overseeing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser.

Jim VandeHei comments on the strategic importance of these appointments:
"These early signs point to the importance, I think, of China and Musk in the early days." [40:44]

Katy Tur elaborates on Rubio’s qualifications and the administration's stance on foreign policy:
"Senator Rubio did vote against... he was supportive more in the past. Certainly the incoming national security advisor, also skeptical of the US continuing to fund the war effort." [22:26 - 26:30]

Willie Geist discusses the potential impact of these nominees on U.S. foreign policy:
"If Israel doesn't take immediate measures to protect civilians in Gaza, the United States is legally bound to stop supplying weapons for a war that should have ended months ago." [52:16]

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5. Foreign Policy: China, Ukraine, and Allies

The hosts delve into the foreign policy challenges facing the incoming administration, particularly regarding China and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Jim VandeHei highlights China's military advancements:
"China is investing heavily in the latest tech and forging ever closer bonds with partners like Russia. Chinese manufacturers have churned out huge numbers of ships, warplanes, missiles, and drones." [Jonathan Lemire mentions this earlier]

David Ignatius provides insight into the implications of the administration's foreign policy choices:
"I think this is bad news for Ukraine... bad news for China." [31:13]

Joe Scarborough underscores the economic and military tensions with China:
"...our only competition right now is China. And even though we've gone far past them over the past four years, we talk about Russia, they've got a $1.4 trillion, maybe $1.7 trillion GDP yearly. China has 17 trillion." [41:02]

The conversation indicates a strategic shift toward a more hawkish stance on China, while also grappling with the complexities of the Ukraine conflict and the dynamics with NATO allies.

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6. Elon Musk's Role in the Trump Administration

A notable segment focuses on Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration, raising questions about the intersection of politics and information in the modern era.

Jim VandeHei explains Musk's influence:
"Musk has been at Mar-a-Lago almost from election day through now. He's intimately involved in picking the Cabinet... He sits in on calls with world leaders... He's going to create some group that sits outside of government that advises on how to try to save a trillion or $2 trillion." [39:03]

Joe Scarborough reflects on the unique alliance:
"You have government and you have information and you have a very, very, very powerful alliance." [37:36]

This collaboration suggests a profound integration of technology, information dissemination, and political strategy within the new administration.

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7. Democratic Strategy Moving Forward

In response to the election results, Democratic strategist and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear shared insights on how the party can regain voter trust and secure future victories.

Andy Beshear's Op-Ed Summary:
Beshear argues that the Democratic Party must refocus on tangible issues such as job creation, affordable healthcare, infrastructure safety, quality education, and community safety. He emphasizes the importance of policies that resonate across party lines and restoring public trust by addressing everyday American concerns.

Joe Scarborough and Willie Geist discuss the need for Democrats to connect authentically with voters, contrasting this with the Republican strategy anchored by Trump's unique appeal.

Willie Geist highlights:
"...they believe with the win he got a week ago today that he's in charge, he has a sweeping mandate and they're there to execute his vision." [34:53]

This segment underscores the necessity for Democrats to build a cohesive and relatable platform that addresses core voter needs beyond partisan politics.

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8. US Support for Israel and Gaza: David Ignatius's Insight

Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, David Ignatius discusses the Biden administration's challenges in securing Israeli compliance with U.S. requirements for civilian protection.

David Ignatius analyzes the situation:
"If Israel doesn't take immediate measures to protect civilians in Gaza, the United States is legally bound to stop supplying weapons for a war that should have ended months ago." [31:13]

He further explains the potential legislative and humanitarian repercussions:
"There's a piece of legislation that says the United States cannot sell weapons to countries that don't observe our standards... unless you make improvement on these 15 steps to make life better for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, we are going to consider... withholding military aid." [52:16]

Joe Scarborough emphasizes the urgency:
"The conditions have been savage in Gaza for so long now... it's just extraordinary. Here's hoping the Biden administration steps in as forcefully as they can in the closing month and help in any way they can." [54:04]

This discussion highlights the delicate balance between supporting allies and upholding humanitarian standards, particularly in conflict zones.

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9. Conclusion

The Morning Joe episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 election results, the strategic implications of Trump's administration appointments, and the ongoing challenges in U.S. foreign and domestic policy. The hosts emphasize the importance of voter engagement, authentic political connections, and the need for strategic adaptability in a rapidly changing political landscape.

Notable Takeaway:
While Trump secured key victories in swing states, the narrow margins suggest a deeply divided electorate, underscoring the imperative for both parties to engage authentically with voters and address pressing American concerns to shape the future political landscape.

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This summary captures the essence of the November 12, 2024 episode of Morning Joe, highlighting the critical discussions and insights shared by the hosts and guests. For a more in-depth understanding, listening to the full episode is recommended.

Transcript

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[Joe Scarborough]

To the People.

[Katty Kay]

Hey, this is Jeff Lewis from Radio Andy live and uncensored. Catch me talking with my friends about my latest obsessions, relationship issues and bodily ailments. With that kind of drama that seems to follow me, you never know what's going to happen.

[Willie Geist]

You can listen to Jeff Lewis live at home or anywhere you are.

[Joe Scarborough]

Download the SiriusXM app for over 425 channels of ad free music, sports, entertainment and more.

[David Ignatius]

Subscribe now and get 3 months free offer details.

[Willie Geist]

Apply.

[Katty Kay]

For the veterans out there that.

[Willie Geist]

Suffer from ptsd, for the single moms.

[Joe Scarborough]

Working two jobs and raising their three kids, for the dads who have to miss bedtime because they want to work that extra shift, and for the kids.

[Willie Geist]

Sleeping on the floor dreaming about a better, better America and a better, better.

[Joe Scarborough]

Future, this victory is for you.

[Willie Geist]

Thank you.

[Joe Scarborough]

Ariz.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego earlier this morning after he was declared the winner of Arizona's Senate race. We will explain how he managed to prevail in a state Donald Trump easily flipped in the presidential race. Also ahead, Donald Trump is filling more key positions for his upcoming administration. We'll bring you the latest nominations and how they could impact the balance of power for the next Congress. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, November 12th. Along with Joe William Me, we have the host of Way Too Early, White House bureau chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire, US Special correspondent for BBC News, Katy Kay and co founder and CEO of Axios, Jim Van Dyke.

[Joe Scarborough]

How did we get. Look at them. Look at them. This is like Gehrig, ruth and the third really good dude that played for the 27 Yankees. I mean, look at that.

[Jonathan Lemire]

And we have David Ignatius coming and.

[Joe Scarborough]

Dev Ignatius is coming, coming up. And I let's get into this Arizona race because this pretty remarkable thing about Arizona right now. Yeah. And also reveals that this election, well, it's multilayered. Let's just say that. Yeah.

[Jonathan Lemire]

NBC News can now project Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego will defeat his Republican challenger Kari Lake in the Arizona Senate race. Gallego will take the seat of retiring independent independent senator Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with the Democrats preventing another GOP gain. He will become the first Latino to represent Arizona in the US Senate. At this hour, with one race still to be called, Republicans control the Senate, 52 seats to 47. It's worth noting that the Senate Democratic candidates prevailed in four key battlegrounds to your point, Joe, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and now Arizona, all states that Trump won. Speaking to reporters after his victory speech, Gallego explained the reason he was able to win in a tough cycle for the Democrats.

[Willie Geist]

You have to earn every vote.

[Joe Scarborough]

And this was a swing state and there are 300,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. I needed to earn the support of all our resources. And so I went out and I.

[Katty Kay]

Talked to everybody and I also didn't.

[Willie Geist]

Agree with them all the time, and.

[Joe Scarborough]

They didn't agree with me all the time.

[Willie Geist]

But we had respectful conversations and at the end of the day, we walked.

[Joe Scarborough]

Away, sometimes with support and sometimes we didn't.

[Katty Kay]

But I had to make sure that.

[Willie Geist]

People knew that I was out there.

[Joe Scarborough]

Talking to them and fighting for them.

[Willie Geist]

Because hopefully, at least then we can build some trust.

[Joe Scarborough]

That's the only thing I would say this morning.

[Jonathan Lemire]

The New York Times notes, after going decades without electing a Democrat to the Senate, Arizona's voters have now done so in four successive elections, underscoring the state's shift from reliable conservative stronghold to competitive battleground. Voters bagged Miss Cinema in 2018, picked Senator Mark Kelly in a special election in 2020, and then elected him again in 2022.

[Joe Scarborough]

There's so many things to talk about here, Jim Vande Hei let's first of all start out by saying that every poll is going to have Democrats up by 47, like percent, and they're going to end up by winning by 47 votes. Remember Martha McSally, who's supposedly down in double digits and just barely lost her race a couple of years ago? Demarc Kelly we have the same thing here where Kari Lake was down 8, 10, 12 points. It ended up being a really tight race. But overall, a couple of things. I mean, if you're Donald Trump, this makes the size of your margin in those states even more impressive because he outran Democrats in all of these swing states. That's the first thing. The second thing, though, of course, and Jim, you and I have been around a very long time, and we've seen this first two, three, four, five days after an election. You have the media's hair on fire saying this was the greatest landslide, or more to the point, this is the greatest defeat the Republicans have ever had or this is the greatest defeat the Democrats have ever had. You start looking at this. This is writing it down. Republican Senate candidates lost in Arizona, they lost in Wisconsin, they lost in Nevada, they lost in Michigan. There were no Senate races in Georgia, Georgia for them to lose. And in North Carolina, no Senate races for them to lose. But there was a governor's race and the Democrats won there. So the Democrats won in every major swing state race they could win by in the year that Donald Trump just ran the board in all of these swing states in a way that wasn't even close. So I'm curious, what do you take also of, again, there's just so much here, it's fascinating. What do you also make of how progressive Gallego was, very progressive member of the House winning in a state like Arizona, who again, like we quoted the Times, now elected four Democrats in a row.

[Jim VandeHei]

Yeah, I think, listen, Donald Trump has claimed, I think he called it an unprecedented mandate. You can claim a mandate whether you win by one vote or you. It went by 100 million. I think for Democrats looking at the results, obviously Trump performed fabulously in almost every single state and district. Vice President Harris way underperformed. Like that was really the story of the election. But then what you're talking about here is it goes back to we live in a 50, 50 country, we have since 2000, and we basically have a change election every single period. And what you're seeing in Michigan, what you see in Wisconsin, what you see in Arizona is that 50, 50 dynamic. And you see politicians who are able to divorce themselves from Biden and Harris because they're not necessarily seen as, quote, unquote, the federal government. They're trying to focus on topics that people in Arizona care about, people in Wisconsin care about. So when Democrats are doing their autopsy, I don't know, maybe I would look at the candidates who are winning, figure out what are they talking about, what are they not talking about. And that's probably the roadmap for them to get back into power in the off year elections.

[Joe Scarborough]

And it's a brilliant insight. Look, Willie, at what these swing state Democrats were talking about, what they were not talking about and how they won. But you know, this is always, it's always come down to the power of the presidential candidate. Right. It's like, you know, when Ronald Reagan got elected, and I know I've said this a lot, but it bears repeating given this news. Reagan was there and Republicans were like, hey, we've got, we've got a new coalition. No, Ronald Reagan had the coalition. It was not transferable. Then Bill Clinton won for eight years, and then Barack Obama gets elected and we're like the Obama majority. It's for the Democrats, the rise of the ascendant. No, that was Barack Obama's majority. That was Barack Obama's mandate. And here we have the same thing with Donald Trump, who uniquely goes in and wins working class voters and wins the type of voters that Democrats always want. And people are going, they go, this is the new Trump coalition and it's going to rule for 1000. No, it is specific to Donald Trump. It is not transferable. A lot of people thought Hillary Clinton could be Bill Clinton, she couldn't be Bill Clinton because that was a unique set of political skills. So you take Reagan, you take Obama, you take Clinton, and now you take Donald Trump. They have a unique set of skills. And that's not transferable. And the fact that Republicans are, let's put it, we'll put it in a positive sense, the fact that Democrats won in Arizona with a very progressive candidate, one in Wisconsin, one in Nevada, one in Michigan, and the Senate races, won in North Carolina in the gubernatorial race against, of course, a whack job, but they won all of these swing states. And I guess in these major races, they're undefeated in swing states because there weren't Senate races in Georgia or North Carolina. And Dave McCormick, of course, Dave McCormick is the one exception to the rule. Dave McCormack, though, as we've said on this show time and time again, is a really strong candidate, and he would have won two years ago if Donald Trump would have endorsed him then. So, anyway, I know I'm going on a lot, but this is really sort of looking back and sort of the second look at what happened last week, and this was not a Republican landslide. This was a Trump sweep.

[Willie Geist]

It was a Trump sweep. And when we say it was an overwhelming victory, we're talking about his sweep of the swing states, which was overwhelming and decisive, of course. And this is no way diminishing what the next four years could look like under Donald Trump. It is his Washington for at least the next two years. We're seeing his appointments roll out. We'll get into some of that as well, what that means for immigrants, what it means for women, and you can go down the list. But to your point, I mean, we've all heard the panic. I heard it a lot yesterday. I was marching in the Veterans Day parade and on the subway to and from people coming up and worried and panicked and wanted to talk about. I get all that. And Some of it is well founded. What I have been saying though, is exactly what you and Jim are saying though. Donald Trump, well, he's winning right now by about 3 million votes. That's the same margin Hillary Clinton beat him in, 16 by the popular vote. And if you look inside these swing states and everyone says, what happened to the polling? They all finish effectively, except for Arizona as margin of error races. I'll go through them. Wisconsin, Donald Trump won by less than one point. Michigan, he won by a point and a half. Nevada by two points. Pennsylvania by two points. Georgia by two points. North Carolina by three points, and then Arizona, five and a half points. So why do I say that? Because it was overwhelming in the sense that he won these states. But if you actually look at who voted and the vote total, this was in fact, as we've been saying for months and months and months, an incredibly close race. Not by the electoral vote count. He won that widely and he won all those swing states impressively. But if you need a reason to take a deep breath is that this was a close race and the fight is still on if you're a Democrat.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah, no doubt about it. You look at Arizona, that's fascinating. There's like a seven, it's like a seven point swing between Donald Trump's five point victory and Ruben Gallego right now, two point victory. So you're right. So much of it has to do with a candidate. He's the first Hispanic senator in the state of Arizona, he's veteran Hispanic men voted for him in much higher numbers than they voted for Kamala Harris. So a lot of different things going. But you know, Katy K, if you're Donald Trump this morning and you're seeing this news, this just seems to strengthen your hand with Republicans in the organizing caucus going, listen, you guys can't win these and women, you can't win these swing states. Like you lost in Michigan, you lost in Wisconsin, you lost in North Carolina, Guvner's Toriel race, you lost in Arizona, you lost in Nevada, I won all those states. It seems to me, as he organizes Republicans and he starts saying this is who you should pick as your majority leader and this is what you should do in the House. It seems to me it only strengthens Donald Trump's hands.

[Katy Tur]

Yeah. And Carrie Lake really ran as a kind of mini me. Trump was very close to the former president, President elect, appeared with him whenever she could, denied the results of the 2020 election, denied the results of her 2022 run for the governorship of Arizona, did all of the classic Trump things prevaricated on kind of the, on the issue of abortion, was super pro a federal ban, then ran back from that and she still couldn't make it because she isn't, she's, I've spent time with her, she's a skilled political operative, but she's not Donald Trump. And I think that is the message to the Republican Party from Trump is this is my party and I you need to do things my way. Now what his way is we're still going to have to find out because it will depend on some more of these appointments being actually confirmed. But he has taken over the party and it doesn't mean, I think you're right when as the Democratic Party now goes into its kind of autopsy of 2024, it has to think, it has to fight the battle of 2028, not the last battle. So it has to think where is the party going to be in 2028 and what are the bigger picture trends? Take Donald Trump out of the picture for 2028. What are the trends that we've seen from 2016, 2020 and 2024, which are the groups the Democratic Party has been losing and why and work on that rather than think, okay, we've got to fight this candidate again because he's not going to be there in 2028 and whoever replaces him may well not be as strong as he is.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah.

[Katty Kay]

Another takeaway here is that election denialism is non transferable. Voters did not hold against Donald Trump that he never conceded 2020, that he never acknowledged that he lost. But the big lie candidates who ran in the 2022 midterms, that includes Mastroiano in Pennsylvania, that includes Kerry Lake. Then they all lost and now we have Kerry Lake losing again. So some voters simply don't want to tolerate that, it seems, unless it comes from Trump. Some Republicans. But you're right, there are some silver linings here for Democrats. They're able to win in these battleground states, Nevada too, as well as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Those are candidates who tailored their messages to their individual states, defying some of the larger national trends. Pennsylvania hasn't been called yet. It does look like it's going Republican. And that's important too because that would give them 53 seats in the Senate, which allows Trump and the Republicans to lose. Susan Collins occasionally, lose Lisa Murkowski occasionally and still be able to get things done. Those the only two Republicans, at least for now, we think will defy the White House. And that's going to be really important here as we get into a little later as his appointments are starting to roll out. And later on we also have this week Republicans picking a Senate majority leader. But there are some building blocks here for Democrats as that party autopsy well underway here just a week since the election.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah. And Jim Vanderhei, Democrats can look at Arizona and I think take, take solace from the fact that they've now won four Senate races there in a row after not winning any in a long time. But let's talk about the one swing state that Republicans won in these Senate races and that is Pennsylvania. Man, put the big siren on top of Pennsylvania because it seems if you look at party registration over the last couple of years to be going the way that Iowa first went, then Ohio and now that seems to be moving eastward toward Pennsylvania that is getting more and more Republican by the day. We'll see if that trend keeps going. But if the trend keeps going like it did over the last year or two, Pennsylvania may in four years look like Florida does now, which is once a swing state. Now about as deep red as crimson red as you can get maybe.

[Jim VandeHei]

It's still pretty much it is a swing state. It was a very close result. Dave McCormick was a really good candidate, not a first time candidate, had a lot of money, had a lot working his advantage and even the outcome for Trump, big win. But they had to pour a lot of time. It's where Elon Musk camped out, where he put a lot of his own money and time into the race and they were able to squeak it out. And I mean, that's what Democrats have to figure out. The map is changing, the country is changing. I think what KDK was saying about you have to look at what are the tectonic shifts that probably are going to persist. It looks like the country moved to the right on energy. It looks like it moved to the right on immigration. Does the party move with it or does it continue to sort of double down on its roots? And those questions will be figured out in the time to come. But you look at that map and you just look at again going back to what Trump did. And I don't think you can give him enough credit for doing what none of us thought possible in kind of defying logic in state after state and district after district. And I think any appraisal has to be clear eyed about like what's, what the hell just happened? Why are big cities that were so blue going towards Trump? There's a reason there and you can figure it out. And then you take if you want solace. You find solace in knowing you probably have a pretty good chance of winning back the House in two years if you look at what's been happening in a 50, 50 country over the last 24 years. But that only happens if you really come together as a party, have a coherent theology, and you're able to articulate it in a way that resonates with people who are very persuadable. That's the lesson of Arizona. It's the lesson of Pennsylvania. People are persu they're still uneasy when there's angst. They want change. I think it's why we have a lot of change. I think change elections correlating with social media, which makes people anxious. There's probably a reason there.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Okay. So just to note that Pennsylvania Senate race has not been officially called by NBC, but obviously numbers looking really good for Dave McCormick there. Let's take a look now at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. China is rolling out its latest fighter jet in an effort to match the most advanced aircraft used by the US Military. As the Washington Post reports, Beijing is investing heavily in the latest tech and forging ever closer bonds with partners like Russia. Chinese manufacturers have churned out huge numbers of ships, warplanes, missiles and drones. And they can make them faster. A crew member was injured when gunfire hit a Spirit Airlines flight to Haiti yesterday. The company says the plane was diverted to the Dominican Republic. Separately, a jet blew airport aircraft turned up evidence that it, too, had been struck by a round. The State Department advises against travel to the Caribbean nation amid a wave of violence and instability. And Bitcoin topped $87,000 yesterday for a new record high. The cryptocurrency surged over 28% in the last week alone. Bitcoin stood at just over $5,000 at the start of the pandemic. Investors are feeling bullish after the election of Donald Trump, who has pledged to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. And still ahead on MORNING joe, Does.

[Joe Scarborough]

This mean I'm gonna have to figure out? Because it looked like I even read the New York Times special section on Sunday a couple years ago when I was trying to explain why crypto was so relevant, I was like, I don't get it.

[Jonathan Lemire]

I want to read it again.

[Joe Scarborough]

I was Tom Hanks in big I don't get it. I don't get it. But it looks like I need to get it.

[Jonathan Lemire]

We'll see. Coming up on MORNING joe, Billionaire Elon Musk was one of Donald Trump's most visible surrogates on the campaign trail. We'll talk about what kind of role and influence the SpaceX founder might have in Trump's new administration. Plus, one of our next guests says President Biden should prioritize the civilian population of Gaza in the final weeks of his term. The Washington Post David Ignatius joins us with more on that. You're watching Morning Joe. We're back in 990 seconds.

[Katty Kay]

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[Joe Scarborough]

Hey.

[Willie Geist]

Friends, Ted Danson here and I want to let you know about my new podcast. It's called Where Everybody Knows yous Name with me, Ted Danson and Woody Harrelson. Sometimes doing this podcast is a chance for me and my good bud Woody to reconnect after Cheers wrap 30 years ago. Plus, we're introducing each other to the friends we've met since, like Jane Fonda, Conan O'Brien, Eric Andre, Mary Steenburgen, my wife, and flee from the Red Hot Chili Peppers. And trust me, it's always a great hang when Woody's there.

[Joe Scarborough]

So why wait?

[Willie Geist]

Listen to where everybody knows your name. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Katty Kay]

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[Willie Geist]

Beautiful live picture of the White House. 6:22 in the morning. Donald Trump is expected this week to nominate Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as Secretary of State. It's according to three sources familiar with the selection process. The sources also did say, though Trump still could change his mind on who will fill the role of the country's top diplomat. Trump yesterday also selecting former Congressman Lee Zeldin of New York to oversee the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin's nomination widely criticized by environmental groups because of his lack of experience in that area. The post requires Senate confirmation, but Republicans will have the majority in the upper chamber when the new Congress is sworn in. And Donald Trump has asked Republican Congressman Mike Waltz of Florida to be his national security adviser. Waltz is a Green Beret who served in Afghanistan, the Middle east and Africa, known for hawkish views on China. As a member of the House's China task force, he said the US Is underprepared. If there's a conflict, conflict in the region. Waltz also criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing Russian President Vladimir Putin should be brought to the negotiating table for a, quote, diplomatic resolution to end the war there. Waltz's role as national security adviser does not require Senate confirmation. So a lot in there, Joe, but if we can go back to the beginning, just for a minute, which is Senate Rubio again, the Trump team has not made that announcement official, but many media outlets, including Arts, reporting that he will be the choice. We do know Donald Trump doesn't love a leap before he makes an announcement, so we can wait. But if it is Marco Rubio, John and I were just talking. We're hearing from people even inside the Biden administration. I wouldn't call it celebration, but perhaps relief that it's Lisa, a guy who's in the Senate, who has experience in this area.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, who's in the Senate, who ran the Intel Committee, who knows the issues, regardless of all the political stuff, regardless of the very mixed background he and Donald Trump have had together. If you're going to talk, and I'm sure David Ignatius will confirm this very soon, but he's a hawk. He's a real hawk on China, he's a hawk on Venezuela, he's a hawk on Cuba, and he was a hawk on Russia throughout his Senate career. Now he's saying, of course, what the incoming national security adviser is saying, Jonathan Lemire, and that is that they need to sit down. Ukraine needs to sit down with Russia, and they need to figure out a way to bring this war to an end. And before people say that's too radical, of course, I've mentioned time and time again that the top Pentagon person told me, the top general at the Pentagon told me in February of last year, this is not going to, you know, these lines are not going to move. And at some point we're going to have to figure out how to negotiate an end to this war, even though we can't say it publicly right now. And that is what Marco Rubio and what Congressman Waltz are saying right now is let's figure. I think the biggest difference is if it's a Biden administration that's negotiating that deal, then it says Ukraine's going to have to give up land. In return, it will get protection from the United States and membership into NATO eventually. I don't know that you're going to get that from the Trump administration, but that's the big question mark over all of this.

[Katty Kay]

Yeah, but first to your first point, I mean, there's been a widely held belief behind closed doors in Washington and Pentagon and foreign policy think tanks that 2025, the year 2025 is when and some sort of negotiations will have to begin and perhaps even conclude in the Russia, Ukraine war that at some point the fighting will slow down, if not altogether cease. There'll be some sort of table where the two sides will meet. Senator Rubio did vote against. He was One of the 15 Republican senators who voted against the last wave of US aid to Ukraine, though he was supportive more in the past. Certainly the incoming national security advisor, also skeptical of the US Continuing to fund the war effort. Donald Trump himself is that. But to Willie's point earlier I heard from number of people within the Biden administration, other foreign policy leaders who also all sort of said almost in one voice, quote, it could have been worse in terms of the Rubio pick that he is a senator. He does have some national security credentials. He has been a believer in NATO. Now, of course, he's going to serve at the pleasure of the president. He's going to carry out Trump's agenda. But he's at least something of a reassuring figure. Also, it's just who doesn't get that job? The Rick Grinnells, the Cash Patels of the world, who, you know, the real firebrands of the of Magoworld who there was real concern might be put in the Foggy Bottom post. Now they may get a big job elsewhere, obviously the FBI, CIA, Attorney general, those posts all still empty. We did see Stephen Miller, hardliner immigration Hardliner going back to the White House and deputy chief of staff in a role with huge powers. But at least for this, Joe and Mika, at least for this, there's a sense that the Rubio pick is a signal that there might be at least some grownups in the room.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, let's bring it right now to talk about that columnist and associate for the Washington Post, David Ignatius. And David, we sorting through these picks, I would say that the biggest concern for a lot of people, not only in Washington, but around the world, who love America and our allies of America. They're hoping that there aren't gadflies that are put in these positions, people that like going on podcasts and saying the most outrageous things. There are obviously some people that have been put in positions that are going to cause concerns. But you look at Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, she worked in the Reagan administration. She's worked for Republicans for years now, was considered, is running a very professional campaign. Mike Walz, Green Beret, and then Marco Rubio, somebody as you know, that has vast experience in foreign policy and in the intel community. So I'm curious your take on the picks thus far and specifically on the incoming national security advisor and the possible incoming secretary of state.

[David Ignatius]

So Joe, my sense is similar to yours and Johnson. I think the general reaction these people are in the group of experienced, bipartisan national security figures each in Congress was known for working across the aisle. If I were to sum up the sort of winners and losers overseas from these picks, I think it's bad news for Ukraine. These are people who say it's time to end the war. It's time for the United States to stop spending as much money. It's probably good news for Russia because Trump's desire to do a deal with Russia on Ukraine is one of the strongest themes he expressed through the campaign. Both these people can help him do that because they have credibility overseas. It's bad news for China. These are two strong China hawks. If there's one theme that comes through each of their foreign policy statements over the last couple of years, it's antipathy to China, warning about China as military rearmament. So, and then I think finally we'll have to wait and see what this means for Europeans. The question I've had is whether Trump this time around is going to want to be more successful as a president working with allies. You know, he just really botched a lot of our key relationships. Is he going to work harder with the Europeans to be a leader of NATO as opposed to a destructor and destroyer of NATO. I think NATO is ready to follow a path toward negotiations on Ukraine. There's a general sense that the time has come in this war, this terrible, bloody war to seek some compromise that was coming, whether Harris won or Biden won, in my view. So I think it's generally more responsible, respectable, if you can say that team than you might have thought. On domestic policy, Trump's going to do said he would. On border issues in particular, you look at Tom Holman, you know that. So you look at the fact that Stephen Miller's back, you know that. So but in foreign policy, this is, I don't want to say establishment because they're not that, but they're a little more in the mainstream of foreign policy advisors than I would have thought.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah. And to David's point about domestic advisors, will Donald Trump ran on mass deportation over and over and over again. So no one should be shocked by who he's selecting on some of these domestic posts where he's going to do exactly what he said he was going to do.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah. Tom Homan, he's bringing back in. He had him remember, in that first administration, he has been very clear as Mr. Homan, who will be under title of border czar, about the plans to go in and take criminals who are here illegally, remove them from where they are in the United States and send them back to their country of origin. Very explicit about what he's going to do and effectively close the border as well. Katty, it is some of these choices I think some of Washington has been heartened by a few of the names that have been floated out here with those openings. Still some concern about some of the openings that are left out there. But we do know this even about establishment figures in Washington. They bend to the will of Donald Trump in the Republican Party and they believe with the win he got a week ago today that he's in charge, he has a sweeping mandate and they're there to execute his vision. So even an establishment Republican is going to do what Donald Trump tells him or her to do.

[Joe Scarborough]

Yeah.

[Katy Tur]

Whatever Elon Musk might be thinking at the moment down in Mar a Lago, it is Donald Trump who won the election and he is the one that's going to be calling the shots. And you're right, Marco Rubio Waltz well known people in the foreign policy circles and seen, as David said, as more orthodox as foreign policy choices. I'm surprised by the degree of planning that seems to be going already with Ukraine. Some people I've spoken to have been close to former President Trump saying, look, we're right down to issues like the nuclear facilities that are currently in areas that Russia might hold. President elect Trump believes they should be in Ukrainian territory. What are the kind of security guarantees that the west might be able to give Ukraine in exchange for giving up effectively about 20% of its land? Maybe it's not NATO, and who knows what NATO is going to look like. Maybe it's something from the European Union. So those kinds of discussions clearly taking place and at quite a developed stage. The other question for me will be what? And you mentioned allies, Joe, and allies in Europe have not been treated particularly well by Donald Trump in the past. But. But the Biden administration has put a lot of effort into shoring up America's allies in Asia was a counterpoint to China. Now, does that effort continue? Do we see the same kind of outreach to South Korea and Japan and the Philippines that the Biden administration has had, or would the blanket tariffs apply to all allies, in which case that might make those kind of allyships more hard when you're trying to really have a bulwark against China, which is what this foreign policy team looks like, Like.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, it's very interesting, Jonathan O'Mear, though I don't think you'll have the Biden team talk about how what they've been doing will fit with what the new Trump team is going to do or vice versa. But you look at what happened during the Biden administration, not only on the street, I was talking about the strengthening of Naito, but the strengthening of our alliance around China under Biden has been actually pretty spectacular, starting with Australia and going north. You, of course, had South Korea and Japan coming to a deal, Japan talking about spending more money in defense. Look what we've done in the Philippines. Look what we've done in the Guam. Look what we've done in Guam. Look what we've done again all around China, the China Sea, that's something that obviously has strengthen America's positioning around China. You know, all these presidents in the century talked about the Asia pivot. Joe Biden did that. Now with hawks coming in China, hawks coming in for Donald Trump, that could be a pretty effective one, two punch. And again, limiting China's expansion.

[David Ignatius]

Yeah.

[Katty Kay]

Eclipse in the headlines by the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East. Certainly President Biden and his team have strengthened the US Position there in China with our allies in Asia. And I think that though they won't give them any credit, I think some on the Trump team will try to build off of that. And as we look at this transition, a couple other things are striking. First of all, it's very different than eight years ago. There is no parade of characters, no auditions walking through Trump Tower then or Mar A Lago now, at least not yet. Trump is acting with real speed. He's getting these names out there much quicker than he did last time around. He's also prioritized people he knows. These are either veterans of the first administration or it's two states in particular. They're from New York or they're from Florida. These, of course, his two home states. And that's where he's turning to, to fill out his roster, at least for now. And Jim Vande Hei, you know, one name who's hovering above all of it, of course, is Elon Musk, who's been spotted at Mar A Lago basically since Election Day. He's been seen golfing with Trump and hanging out there at dinner. You know, it's not clear whether or not he'll get any sort of formal title or not, you know, but what is the sense as to your hearing, as to what role he could play and will they be able to coexist? If there's one truism we know about Donald Trump, he likes to be the only star in the sky. Elon Musk, well, he's someone who is used to that role as well. How do we see this in the months ahead?

[Jim VandeHei]

I think it's one of the most interesting and important stories that's been unfolding over the last month is this fusion between Musk and Donald Trump. Mike Allen and I write about it in today's behind the Curtain column. Musk has been at Mar A Lago almost from election day through now. He's intimately involved in picking the Cabinet. He's one of the few people sitting in this makeshift situation room that they built in Mar A Lago where Trump's looking at TV screens to look at the different portfolios of candidates for these jobs. He sits in on calls with world leaders. He's going to create some group that sits outside of government that advises on how to try to save a trillion or $2 trillion. He claims I think that'll be harder than said, but that's going to be part of his portfolio. We've not seen an alliance like this when you can combine politics with information. Like, I really believe politics flows downstream from information. And now you have more than half of the country getting its information from non traditional sources. And Elon Musk sits at the center of that. So you take government and you take information and you have a very, very, very powerful alliance. I think it's the most important story. It probably sits with what David Ignatius talked about, this idea, this new. Right. And at the same time, putting together a team that is hell bent on confronting China. And for good reason. Right. Like China's the one nation that has the manpower and has the money to be an existential threat, threat to the United States. It's the only country that can probably convene an axis of evil that could, that could actually threaten the U.S. and so those early signs point to the importance, I think, of China and Musk in the early days.

[Joe Scarborough]

Axios co founder and CEO Jim Vande, thanks so much. We're going to be getting to a David Ignatius column in one minute. I want to talk to him also about China. You know, I talk about the numbers and how strong America's economy is all the time. I will say, though, our only competition right now is China.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Right?

[Joe Scarborough]

And even though we've gone far past them over the past four years, you know, we talk about Russia, they've got a $1.4 trillion, maybe $1.7 trillion GDP yearly. China has 17 trillion. So of course, the US has 26, 27. The EU has 26, 27. Put that together, we overpower China. But they are, as Jim said, the one country that poses a real threat to the United States, especially for our.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Relationships with our allies. Breakdown coming up, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is optimistic Democrats can win again. We'll take a look at what he's saying the party needs to do in order to regain the confidence of voters. Morning Joe. We'll be right back.

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[Jonathan Lemire]

Sorry. All right, 44 past the hour. Time now for the must read opinion pages. In a guest essay this morning for the New York Times entitled I'm the Governor of Kentucky, Here's How Democrats Can Win Again, Andy Beshear writes in part, the focus of the Democratic Party must return to creating better jobs, more affordable and accessible health care, safer roads and bridges, the best education for our children and communities where people aren't just safer, but also feel safer. We do this through policy and by taking direct action that gets results. The Democratic Party must show the American people that it cares about creating a better life for each and every American and re earn the public's trust about its focus and its direction. None of this means we abandon important values and principles. Earning trust and showing people you care about them also requires that we talk to people like normal human beings. So while others are talking about political strategy and messaging, the way forward is really about focus and about action. And perhaps the best part, these core issues and concerns are not partisan, and addressing them helps Democrats and Republicans alike. That's a path forward for both the Democratic Party and for this country that we love. Yeah, I mean, and the question I would have is what in this Democratic presidential campaign of what Andy Beshear wrote there was not included?

[Joe Scarborough]

I mean, well, I mean, I think.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Kamala Harris had a plan for housing, had a plan for the economy. Yeah, I'm not defending it at this point because Donald Trump won, but what is Andy Bashir saying that Democrats are not doing well?

[Joe Scarborough]

I think, let's just say it. Talk like normal people, act like normal people. I think Washington Democrats.

[Jonathan Lemire]

What about what Andy Beshear wrote, joe Biden didn't do well.

[Joe Scarborough]

Joe Biden had a hard time communicating with people. I mean, the thing is, David Ignatius, as you know, in politics, it's so important. If you can get out, put your hand on somebody's shoulder and say, you know, talk to me. What are you going through? How can I help you? I mean, I've seen it firsthand. I mean, best advice I ever got was go up to people, do just that. Say, tell me about your life. How can I help you? What do you need? What is the government not doing? Or how are they getting in your way as a small business person? And the guy said, then shut up. They will talk to you for 10 minutes. You write down notes, and you turn around and walk away. And they will go, that's one of the smartest young men I've ever met in my life. It's like, you know, I never forgot that. Obviously, he told me that 30 years ago. But it's that connection. And I will say, if you're Kamala Harris and you parachuted down and you've got like 100 days for a sprint to connect, man, that ain't enough time. It's just not.

[David Ignatius]

You know, the best person I ever saw at what you're describing was Bill Clinton. He had a way of just connecting with people. It was visceral. He'd work a rope line and people would feel, my gosh, this is my best friend. Kamala Harris didn't have long enough. I felt that she got to be a better candidate week by week through the campaign, that she was more comfortable, more graceful, she spoke better. But it wasn't enough time, and frankly, there wasn't enough message to impart. He can't just glad hand people and look like a good candidate on stage. It takes something more direct. But it'd be fascinating, I think, having Bashir come out of the box with a very clear statement that says, basically, I want to be in the conversation going forward. That's a good sign for Democrats, you know, this hiding, blaming themselves, wondering what they did wrong. That can go on only so long, right?

[Joe Scarborough]

And you know, Willie, we've talked about who won those swing states. You had in Wisconsin a senator, Tammy Baldwin, who had been there before. People knew her. And even when things got rocky and people were throwing stuff left and right at her, they're like, wait a second, I know Tammy Baldwin. She carried her through Alyssa Slotkin. Voters knew her. She was a congresswoman from Michigan. Voters knew what Ruben Gallego. I mean, I've said this A billion times. Ruben Gallego is more progressive than Arizona. He shouldn't win if you look at it on paper. But Willie, I've said it time and time again, and I found this. I was more conservative than a lot of people in my district. But a lot of people in my district came up to me after I got elected in like four landslide victories. And they said, I don't agree with you on everything. I think you're way too conservative on a lot of issues. But I know you, and I know you're going to fight for us, and I know that I can trust you, that what you said, how you're going to vote is how you're going to vote. And I can do it. That's the sort of thing that, you know, all of these candidates, the one that we're talking about, they had that connection with voters in those swing states. Kamala Harris had again, maybe 100 days. And if she had been campaigning since January or February, I guarantee you some of those issues that really got to her again, and we're talking about that one trans ad, $30 million worth, she would have had a year, she would have had nine months to at some point go, wait, hold on. That was your policy. And I know she said that in debate, but you got to say it more than once. Are these other issues where they went after her? She would have campaigned in New Hampshire. She would have seen firsthand just the impact of inflation on working class Americans. And that's, you know, you develop throughout a campaign. You know, you can't do that in 100 days.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah. And who knows? That may not even have helped her either. This may have been Donald Trump's year in 20, but it certainly would have given her perhaps a better shot. And Tamika's point, Joe Biden, let's not forget when he won in 2020, he won that primary among Democrats and won the election because he was seen as the more centrist of Democrats, because he was seen as not totally giving in to some of those progressive values. He says, we're not going to tear down statues of George Washington. We're not going to defund the police. That was Joe Biden saying those things. Now, he was attached to a lot of that successfully by Donald Trump and others. And yes, many prominent members of the party have said those things. And that certainly hurt Kamala Harris down the stretch, including herself in 2019, some of the things she said. But to Governor Beshear's point, I think that it does. Look what he's talking about right there, does look a little bit more like Joe Biden running in 2020 when he won. So keeping some of that and trying to expand, I guess, is their goal here. David Ignatius, let's turn a bit to your new piece in the Washington Post titled, if Israel doesn't help Gaza's civilians, Biden has to stop supplying weapons. In the piece, David writes this. The reality is that right now there is no clear Israeli, American, or UN plan for supporting the social needs of a desperate population. For the Biden team, getting Israeli cooperation has been like pulling teeth, as one official put it. In the first days of the war, Antony Blinken spent hours pleading with Netanyahu to begin aiding civilians. A trick of aid started to flow. But in January, Israeli protesters blocked relief shipments through the Kerem Shalom crossing and police did nothing. At Blinken's request, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant intervened and the trucks began moving again. But last week, Netanyahu fired Gallant, who had been the administration's most reliable Israeli contact. Biden has demanded Israeli action and set a timetable for Netanyahu to deliver. Words don't matter anymore. It's a last test for the outgoing president. If Israel doesn't take immediate measures to protect civilians in Gaza, the United States is legally bound to stop supplying weapons for a war that should have ended months ago. David, do you think there's a chance that that happens in these final months of the Biden administration?

[David Ignatius]

Well, I certainly hope so, Willie. As I said in the piece, this is a last chance for Biden to do something significant in his Middle east legacy. Put an awful lot of time in the Middle East. He struggled and struggled to get a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. Didn't happen. It's probably not going to happen. But there are things he can require the Israelis to do on the humanitarian front. And when I say require, there is a piece of legislation that says the United States cannot sell weapons to countries that don't observe our standards, international standards, on human rights issues, humanitarian issues. That's the issue that's come to the fore after a letter that Secretary Blinken, Secretary of State, and the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin sent a month ago to Israel saying, unless you make improvement on these 15 steps to make life better for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, we are going to consider, under our legal obligations, withholding military aid. So that's coming to a head this week, and I wanted to alert readers to that fact. But more broadly, this is a terrible tragedy. The level of human suffering in Gaza, when you look at the pictures, when you talk to people it's just extraordinary. And I know. I just want to say one last thing. I know from my conversations with senior officials, officials in the Biden administration, how painful, how wrenching this has been to see this suffering, to want to do something about it and to have been unsuccessful. Here's a time for a last push. And my sense is it's something that the Biden team would be proud of. If they can make progress, it's something.

[Joe Scarborough]

They just have to do. The conditions have been savage in Gaza for so long now. Of course, of course you talk to many people in Gaza and you've had news reports. And they do blame Hamas as well, because Hamas basically held the entire region hostage along with the hostages that are underground. But that doesn't alleviate any of the suffering that has gone on in Gaza. It's gone on far, far too long. And here's hoping the Biden administration steps in as forcefully as they can in the closing month and help in any way they can. And Katty, I just want to do a postscript here, sort of a looking back on this issue of Israel, because what we've heard all along is, oh, Biden and Harris were too weak on Israel and the Jews are all going to vote for Donald Trump. And I'm like, oh, my God, we hear this every four years. We hear it. Donald Trump moved the embassy to Jerusalem and Joe Biden still got 70% of the Jewish vote in 2020 this year. After all of the talk we've heard time and time again, colleagues and other people telling me, oh, Jews aren't going to vote for Harris. They can't stand Harris. I just looked this up really quickly. Times of Israel quoted the National Election pool, which is the largest exit polling firm, 79% of Jews voted for Harris. NBC News put that number the exit poll, 78% of Jews voted for Harris. Donald Trump fared best. In the Fox News AP exit polls, 66% of Jews voted for Harris. But it's probably by the time they get everything together, just get up where it always is, which we've said on the show before, it's usually 70, 71, 72, 73% of Jews vote for the Democratic candidate year in and year out. The only exception to that, Ronald Reagan in 1980 got 40% of the Jewish vote.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah.

[Katy Tur]

And Jewish women in particular, I think, were the second biggest voting bloc for Kamala Harris. So the Democrats can still rely on the supporters of Jewish voters this time around. What they because America is still seen as the friend of Israel. And Joe Biden flew there right after the attacks of October last year, and he embraced Netanyahu. And whilst there's been friction there, it's certainly the case that Joe Biden has stood by the Israeli government more so than clearly Arab American voters in Michigan would have liked. They were the surprising voting bloc for for Donald Trump. When you look at the Dearborn area, the number of Arab Americans who didn't just stay home or vote for Jill Stein, although 18% of them voted for Jill Stein, they actually voted for Donald Trump. This is the president who said he was going to have a Muslim registry. He didn't do it, but when he came in in 2016, that's what he said he wanted to do. He wanted to ban people coming from predominantly Muslim countries, but they were so fed up of the treatment of people in Gaza that they were prepared to vote for Donald Trump as a protest vote.

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