Morning Joe 3/11/25

Summary

Morning Joe Podcast Summary – March 11, 2025

Hosts: Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski
Guests: Jonathan Lemire, Steve Ratner, Ed Luce, Sam Stein, Frank Holland, Keir Simmons
Release Date: March 11, 2025

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1. Economic Turmoil and Market Downturn

Market Crash Overview

The episode opened with a stark analysis of the recent stock market plunge. Jonathan Lemire and Steve Ratner detailed the severe downturn:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 500 points.
• Nasdaq dropped over 600 points, marking its worst day since September 2022.
• S&P 500 struggled, reaching its lowest level since September pre-election.

Guest Insights:

• Steve Ratner remarked, “It’s not a pretty picture on this Monday” (01:02).
• Ed Luce emphasized, “Fresh data today is not helping quell recession fears” (01:35).
• Mika Brzezinski summarized, “What started as an ugly day on Wall Street has turned downright hideous” (02:05).

Elon Musk's Controversial Remarks

A significant portion of the discussion centered around Elon Musk's recent interview with Larry Kudlow, where Musk criticized federal programs:

• Musk suggested eliminating Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to reduce federal spending (04:46).
• He controversially claimed these programs attract illegal immigrants, influencing voter demographics.

Fact-Checking and Repercussions:

• Ed Luce debunked Musk’s assertion, stating, “There are almost twice as many Americans alive over 100 as there are Americans receiving Social Security benefits” (09:04).
• Sam Stein highlighted the inaccuracies, noting, “He’s talking about how those are the programs that need to be eliminated, which would devastate millions of Americans” (13:32).
• The hosts discussed the political fallout, with Sam Stein describing Musk’s stance as “political dynamite” and a potential campaign liability for Democrats (12:07).

Market Experts Weigh In:

• Frank Holland pointed out, “Policies they've actually articulated, that they're doing are very extreme. But what is really bothering the market as much as anything is uncertainty” (27:08).
• Steve Ratner added, “Concerns over White House policy and fears of recession driving that sell-off” (17:37).

Key Takeaways:

• The markets are reacting strongly to the unpredictability of Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs.
• Experts warn of three impending bubbles: fiscal, crypto, and stock market.
• JP Morgan Chase analysts now estimate a 40% chance of a global recession due to extreme U.S. policies (16:27).

2. Diplomatic Efforts and the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia

The podcast delved into the ongoing diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the war between Ukraine and Russia:

• U.S. and Ukrainian officials are in Saudi Arabia for high-stakes talks.
• Keir Simmons, NBC News Chief International Correspondent, reported extensive drone attacks by Russia, including one striking a building in Moscow (34:04).

Key Discussion Points:

• Ed Luce highlighted the complexity of achieving a brokered peace, noting, “Both sides need to come to an understanding that there's no military solution to this situation” (35:15).
• Keir Simmons discussed the challenges, stating, “The Russians and Ukrainians only talk to each other in the language of war” (36:45).

Potential Concessions and Security Guarantees:

• Talks may involve Ukraine potentially conceding territory in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S.
• Jonathan Lemire questioned the feasibility, “President Trump suggests... we're nowhere near being able to say that this is going to be a success” (40:02).

International Reactions:

• The Philippine government arrested former leader Rodrigo Duterte on crimes against humanity charges.
• Ontario, Canada imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York in retaliation to U.S. tariffs (47:38).

3. Social Security and Medicare Debates

Elon Musk’s Critique:

Musk’s comments have reignited debates over the sustainability of key federal programs:

• Musk argued for the elimination of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to curb federal spending (04:46).
• He controversially linked these programs to attracting illegal immigrants for voter influence.

Expert Analysis and Rebuttals:

• Sam Stein clarified the misconceptions, stating, “Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system... illegal immigrants do not draw from these funds” (12:07).
• Frank Holland emphasized the public’s strong support for these programs, noting, “The notion of eliminating it is, I think, going to blow up in the faces of Elon Musk and Donald Trump” (09:56).

Political Implications:

• Eliminating these programs is seen as politically dangerous, potentially alienating a significant portion of the American electorate.
• The discussion underscored the critical role of Social Security and Medicare in the American social safety net.

4. International Incidents and Environmental Concerns

Wildfires on Long Island:

• Officials attributed the recent wildfires to negligent behavior while making s'mores, leading to a burn ban on Long Island (48:59).

Consequences:

• The unexpected emergence of such wildfires has raised awareness about the dangers of backyard activities, especially in windy conditions.

5. Sports Update: Yankees’ Injuries

Garrett Cole’s Surgery:

• Yankees ace pitcher Garrett Cole announced a season-ending Tommy John surgery after persistent elbow discomfort (49:00).
• Impact: This development sidelines Cole for the rest of the season and potentially affects the Yankees’ performance significantly.

Team Struggles:

• Multiple injuries plague the Yankees, including key players like Luis Heel and Giancarlo Stanton, raising concerns about the team's competitiveness this season (50:34).

6. Human Interest: Sheryl Lee Ralph’s Achievement

Recognition at the 3050 Summit:

• Sheryl Lee Ralph, an acclaimed actress and activist, was honored with the Know Your Value Award.
• Her contributions include empowering over 500 women from 46 countries, advocating for career development, and promoting women’s rights (43:09).

Event Highlights:

• Sheryl shared insights on overcoming doubts, standing up for oneself, and the importance of taking up space in traditionally male-dominated environments.

7. Closing Remarks and Final Updates

Additional News Briefs:

• Ontario’s Tariffs: Premier Doug Ford announced a surcharge on electricity exports, affecting US states and potentially increasing household bills.
• Philippines Leadership: Rodrigo Duterte's arrest marks a significant moment in international justice efforts.

Final Thoughts:

The episode concluded with reflections on the interconnectedness of U.S. economic policies, international diplomatic efforts, and their broader implications on both national and global scales. The hosts emphasized the importance of informed discourse amidst prevailing uncertainties.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Steve Ratner (01:02): “It’s not a pretty picture on this Monday.”
• Mika Brzezinski (02:05): “What started as an ugly day on Wall Street has turned downright hideous.”
• Ed Luce (09:04): “There are almost twice as many Americans alive over 100 as there are Americans receiving Social Security benefits.”
• Sam Stein (12:07): “Entitlements is the wrong word. If you pay into something, you are investing in your future.”
• Frank Holland (27:08): “This administration is all over the place. And one day they're cutting Social Security, the next day they're firing everybody at USAID.”
• Keir Simmons (36:45): “The Russians and Ukrainians only talk to each other in the language of war.”
• Jonathan Lemire (40:02): “We're nowhere near being able to say that this is going to be a success.”

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, analyses, and insights presented during the March 11, 2025 episode of Morning Joe. From economic upheavals and political controversies to international diplomacy and human interest stories, the episode offered a multifaceted exploration of the pressing issues shaping today’s world.

Transcript

[Mika Brzezinski]

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[Joe Scarborough]

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[Joe Scarborough]

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[Jonathan Lemire]

Will go to the markets where it.

[Steve Ratner]

Is Not a pretty picture on this Monday.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Dow down by near 500. Nasdaq getting bludgeoned today down more than 600 points. That's more than 3%.

[Steve Ratner]

So it's ugly across the board as.

[Jonathan Lemire]

We say, Joe, the detox continues and.

[Steve Ratner]

It is remarkable how quickly the markets.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Have moved from optimism over Trump 2.0.

[Steve Ratner]

To pessimism over how this thing is all playing out. Tesla is a perfect example, what we're.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Calling the Tesla Chainsaw Massacre. It's down again, 50% drawdown from its high seven weeks in a row, the.

[Steve Ratner]

Longest losing streak ever.

[Ed Luce]

The S and P is now at its lowest level since September. Since September before the election. Fresh data today is not helping quell recession fears and the Nasdaq is seeing the biggest losses once again.

[Mika Brzezinski]

You're taking a live look right now at the Dow. The numbers are tanking on fears of.

[Steve Ratner]

A recession and trade war.

[Ed Luce]

800 points for the Dow in fact right now are pretty much at session lows. The S and p is down two.

[Steve Ratner]

And three quarters of a percent, the.

[Ed Luce]

Nasdaq down four and a quarter for its worst day since 2022.

[Mika Brzezinski]

What started as an ugly day on Wall street has turned downright hideous. Broad based selling across the board and you know, you could call it a sinkhole that's opened up under the Nasdaq.

[Ed Luce]

There's a lot of uncertainty right now. Trade policy, tax policy, spending policy, immigration policy and geopolit.

[Mika Brzezinski]

All quite uncertain.

[Steve Ratner]

And so I think markets are reacting to that.

[Ed Luce]

Maybe Scott Besson should do this read his old boss's book, George Soros the Age of Turbulence where he talks about herd mentality. The herd is really negative right now and it's focused on tariffs. I think some of this is a sales job. They have to go out there and maybe stop talking about tariffs so much and start talking about how we're going to infuse the economy. We're going to, we're going to release the animal spirits. We're going to deregulate stuff.

[Mika Brzezinski]

A look at just some of the coverage yesterday as President Trump's tariffs and recession fears sparked a massive sell off on Wall Street. We're going to get an update on the markets from CNBC in just a moment.

[Ed Luce]

Of course, headlines talk about Wall Street Journal, market plunges, recession worries spread. You have a lot of analysts that had been predicting a soft landing. Move away from that and talk about the radicalism of policies. JP Morgan Chase's economic team saying because of the radical radicalism, the extremism of the policies, they're moving off their more optimistic views. The New York Times also talking about how the economy also, Mika, getting hammered by what happened yesterday on Wall Street.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Yeah, we're going to have all of that. Also this morning, we'll bring you the latest on the diplomatic talks between US And Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia following that disastrous meeting at the White House. Plus, Health and Human Services secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr. A new theory. It's just shocking for what's stupid causing.

[Ed Luce]

It's shockingly stupid.

[Mika Brzezinski]

The measles outbreak across the country.

[Ed Luce]

And he runs hhs, a theory that.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Has no scientific standing. Absolutely not like that. With us, we have the co host of our fourth hour, Jonathan Lemire. He's a contributing writer at the Atlantic covering the White House and national politics. Managing editor at the Bulwarks, Sam Stein joins us, former treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner back with us especially for today. Good, good day to have them. And U.S. national Editor at the Financial Times Ed Loose joins us this morning. Let's dive right in.

[Ed Luce]

We're going to get to the markets. We're going to get the market crashes and we're going to get to all the concerns about the coming recession. But firstly, some breaking news on an interview yesterday that Elon Musk had with Larry Kudlow.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Elon Musk referred to the federal spending on programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as the areas that need to be eliminated. In an interview yesterday, Musk also claimed Democrats used such programs to attract illegal immigrants and to turn them into voters. Take a look.

[Jonathan Lemire]

I mean the waste report in entitlement spending, you know, which is all of the, which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So that's like the big one to eliminate. That's the sort of half trillion, maybe 6,700 billion a year that is also a mechanism by which the Democrats attract and retain illegal immigrants by essentially paying them to come here and then turning them into voters.

[Sam Stein]

Yes.

[Jonathan Lemire]

So this is why the Democrats are so upset about the situation because they're losing. You know, if we turn off this gigantic money magnet for illegal immigrants, then they will leave and they will lose voters.

[Ed Luce]

You know, there are times when Democrats have put words in Republicans mouths about Social Security, Medicare. Here he said the quiet part out loud and actually said Social Security and Medicare is where all the money is and those are the ones that need to be eliminated. Now we've of course seen him say other things that have been deeply damaging politically, but that is extraordinarily damaging politically. And Steve Ratner want to do a fact check also. He wasn't talking about the people up to 160 years of age that Donald Trump incorrectly said were getting Social Security payments. He's just saying that's where all the money is. By the way, you and I, we always say that. We don't say eliminate them. We also don't say that people are Democrats using Social Security and Medicare to attract illegal immigrants to America to vote for them. That's, I must say that is a new and quaint approach to the two most important programs for Americans, retired Americans. But that's what he said. But I, but let's do a fact check on the other part. Just so when that comes up about Donald Trump went on and on and on in the speech about people getting Social Security checks up to 160, that's not the case. The fact is that they have stayed on the rolls because it's an automated roll where they didn't get pulled off. I want to give you some numbers. You're a number guy. In 2020. 20. In 2023, Social Security report found that only 44,000Americans of the 18.9 million individuals listed over 100 years old in the database were receiving payments. In 2020's Census Bureau there were 80,139 people in America who were over 100. So that tells you that there are almost twice as many Americans alive over 100 as there are Americans who are receiving Social Security payment checks. So the idea that there's this massive fraud is ridicul, ridiculous. 80,000Americans alive, over 100 years of age, you know, and half of them not getting Social Security benefits. So again, it undermines it. This is, again, this is a lie that Musk continued to tell yesterday. But it, but also just overall talking about how those are the programs that need to be eliminated, again, pretty shocking to most Americans, I would think.

[Frank Holland]

Yeah, Joe, look, other presidents have talked about even trimming Social Security, privatizing Social Security. All of those ideas have gone down in flames because the American people like their Social Security. They like their Medicare. I was with somebody the other day. Whoa. Senator who conducts town halls. And he saidhe said. And the one thing one of his constituents said and the one thing that you have to be sure of, I don't want the government messing around with my Medicare. They don't even realize Medicare in some cases is a government program. They just like it because it takes care of their health care needs. And so this has become part of the fabric of our Social net. It's something people depend on. It's something people pay into. And the notion of eliminating it is, I think, going to blow up in the faces of Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Now President Trump himself, I'm wondering.

[Ed Luce]

But before we go to you, Jonathan Lemire. Hey, T.J. could you cue up that clip again? I just want to make sure that we didn't misunderstand what Elon had to say. He's talking to Larry Kudlow. And it's fascinating that Nick and I were watching another network last night where they were interviewing Larry Kudlow. It's fascinating that this part of the interview never came up. Let's play it again. Because it's kind of, I mean, the.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Wage report in entitlement spending, you know, which is, all of the, which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So that, that's, that's like the big one to eliminate is that's the sort of half trillion, maybe six steps, 700 billion a year. That is also a mechanism by which the Democrats attract and retain illegal immigrants by essentially paying them to come here and then turning them into voters.

[Sam Stein]

Yes.

[Jonathan Lemire]

So this is why the Democrats are so upset about the situation, because they're losing. You know, if we turn off this gigantic money magnet for illegal immigrants, then they will leave and they will lose voters. So, Ed Loose, President Trump repeatedly has said he wouldn't touch Social Security. Other times he's waffled, suggested maybe there'd be some, something to do on the margins there. But this is pretty Clear what Elon Musk had to say yesterday. $700 billion, a lot of money, maybe even more. And it's Social Security is known as the third rail of American politics for a reason no one touches it, certainly without devastating political consequences. So this is now. Musk has now supplied Democrats with yet another ready made campaign commercial, wielding that chainsaw on stage at cpac, indiscriminately cutting federal government programs that hurt red state, blue state voters alike. And now this, saying he wants to not reform, even just eliminate Social Security, which would have impacts on just about every American.

[Sam Stein]

It would. And it's not the first time. Remember Jonathan, he's also described it as a Ponzi scheme, which betrays a complete ignorance of how Ponzi schemes work. This is a pay as you go system. People pay into it all their lives and then they draw out of it after they retire or get disability or whatever. The one group that doesn't draw out of it are illegal immigrants. They come in, they work, they pay into it, but they don't draw out of it because they're illegal immigrants, let alone come here because of the magnet, as Musk calls it, of Social Security. So this is at the most extraordinary misreading both of how Social Security works and also of the role of illegal immigrants in the U.S. economy. And I have to say I keep correcting, maybe I'm being pedantic, but entitlements is the wrong word. If you pay into something, you are investing in your future, your money. So in the expectation you'll get it back after you, you retire, any attempt, as I think Trump knows, to mess with that is political dynamite. Elon Musk is. Elon Musk's political standing in this town is falling almost as fast as Tesla's share price. He is in albatross around Trump's name.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Not that fast.

[Ed Luce]

Let's, let's not overstate, I mean, let's not overstate Tesla there. I mean, They've lost like 750 billion in market cap over like, I don't know, the past month or two. So. Yeah, but, but Sam Stein, real quickly. And then we're going to get to the markets, unfortunately, crashing yesterday, Sam, really quickly, cuz there's going to be a lot of scrambling going on, I'm sure in the White House about what Elon Musk said and what he didn't say. And I'm sure they're already trying to apologize for him on other networks and try to explain that his words are being wrenched from the proper context. Elon Musk said Social Security, Medicare, those are the two big programs that need to be eliminated. And he didn't talk about the lie that people are up to 160 getting Social Security. Da, da, da. No. What he said was there's like $700 billion there. That's where the money is. That's what needs to be eliminated.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Right. The most generous reading of this comment is he was saying there is waste and fraud up to $700 billion in Social Security. There are no statistics out there to support that claim. And it leads you to the conclusion that they are either going to manufacture waste, fraud and abuse in an effort to cut the program or they're just making it up. Honestly. And I have to imagine that one, this is part of a larger program now to go after the entitlement programs. The reason you have to imagine is because Elon continues to talk about this. And then, of course, Donald Trump brings it up in the State of the State of the Union address. I know it's not a State of the Union address. And so clearly their eyes are set on this. On top of that, DOGE has been doing under the radar a number of cuts to the Social Security administration. And that is the agency that implements the program. Privatization, automation, cutting down offices, all that are going to hurt and hamper the program and its administration. You can already tell on Capitol Hill there is incredible discomfort from Republicans and Democrats over what they've done to date. And they've just gotten started. This is very kindly an albatross that is going to hang over them. Trump knows this, which is what's fascinating to me is that he knows how bad this can be politically firm, and yet he's not reining in Elon when it comes to Social Security.

[Ed Luce]

And again, these lies about Social Security and paying people that are dead up to 160, not only are they not paying a lot of people that are dead up to 160, like what we heard and what we keep hearing from Elon Musk and others in the administration, they're not even paying 40,000Americans who are over 100 Social Security. There are more Americans alive, 80,000 according to the 2020 census that are that are alive over 100 years old than are getting Social Security checks, which is about 44,000.

[Mika Brzezinski]

So let's look at what happened with stock futures, which are up slightly this morning after a massive sell off yesterday on Wall Street. The dow lost nearly 900 points, the S&P fell 502.7%, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 700 points, its worst day since September of 2022. Stocks sank as concerns over a recession rose on Wall street after President Trump in an interview with Fox News on Sunday refused to rule out the possibility that his tariffs and policies could cause a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase now believe there is a 40% chance of a global recession because of extreme U.S. policies. Yesterday's losses continued what has been a weeks long stretch of selling since Trump's tariffs talks began. The s and P 500 closed down 8.6% from its record high on February 19, shedding over $4 trillion in market value during that time.

[Ed Luce]

Let's bring in right now the anchor of CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, Frank Holland. Frank Bloodbath yesterday on Wall street talk about it.

[Steve Ratner]

Yeah, very difficult day on Wall Street. Huge declines. You guys are laying out the numbers. I got one more for you. The Nasdaq having its worst day in more than two years and $1 trillion in tech stock gains loss just gone in one day. So you mentioned it. Two big factors here, concerns over White House policy and fears of recession driving that sell off that again has wiped out $4 trillion from the S&P 500, often called the broader market since its all time high that it hit just last month. It's been a very long month for investors. Also now there's concerns about the consumer that are weighing on the market. Especially yesterday, Delta Airlines coming out with a warning of weakness when it comes to consumer and business spending. That has airline stocks trading lower this morning. But also that warning is kind of flying in the face of what we've been hearing from so many companies and even economists. A lot of those economists are telling us the economy's strong, the consumer is strong and that spending for consumers that are about 70% of the economy, it's just shifted to things like services including travel and hospitality. Again, that Delta warning kind of flying in the face of all that. Also, when it comes to that AI trade that's really powered the market over the last two years, we're continuing to see people saying that that story may have unwound, including our own Jim Cramer. Yesterday he said the Max 7 that just doesn't even exist anymore, saying that Tesla and Nvidia, an AI name that's gone from obscure to ubiquitous, it's just no longer magnificent anymore. He says both Tesla and Nvidia, they're kind of like meme stocks right now, kind of twisting and turning on investor sentiment. That's often called animal spirits. That's the term you're going to hear a whole lot more today especially so just yesterday I spoke with former Fed official Loretta Mester. She doesn't believe that we're headed for a recession. She admits there's a slowdown, but doesn't think it's a recession. But even she admitted if you're an investor, a business leader, just a person, it's time to plan for a potential economic slowdown, maybe even a recession. Not her base case, but she's saying certainly it's becoming a more and more of a realistic possibility.

[Mika Brzezinski]

CNBC's Frank Holland, thank you very, very much.

[Ed Luce]

Let me just say really quickly, big difference between Tesla and Nvidia. I mean, Tesla has been overvalued, analysts believe for years. It's sort of a meme stock people are investing in sort of the genius of Elon Musk that's obviously been shattered over the past couple of months, especially in Europe. Nvidia, they are making chips that are going to fuel like the future revolution. And just because the Wall street is going one way or another because of fears over tariffs doesn't change the underlying fundamentals of that.

[Mika Brzezinski]

So for several years and definitely over the past few months, you've talked about the strong yet precarious state of the American economy, warning the Trump administration and Republicans in power in Washington to be careful not to up upend things. Here's Joe. Over the past few months, take tariffs.

[Ed Luce]

Are taxes on consumers. They are taxes on middle class Americans. Donald Trump broke all records when he was president for being fiscally reckless. And now with his proposals, according to economists quoted by the Wall Street Journal, it's going to happen again. The challenge for Donald Trump and the administration is in some ways do no harm. I mean, do no harm on tariffs that are going to be inflationary, do no harm on a monetary policy that's going to be too inflationary. We got a $36 trillion debt. Our economy has been fueled by debt from the federal government since 2007. It just has Republicans. They need to be careful when they take control. They need to be careful because right now they have an economy that's the envy of the world. And when you're sitting with a lead like that, you don't want to move too fast. We have a strong economy, but it's on the razor's edge as far as inflationary pressures go. We've got a stock market that Warren Buffett and a lot of people a hell of a lot smarter than me thinking is overvalued, overpriced. Right now we've got the bubble, the crypto bubble. We're just crazy, maddening profits right now, literally based on nothing but this idea that markets go up forever. And this idea, this threat coming from China, this idea that everybody has to line up and deal with America or there's nobody else for them to deal with. Right now, you know, we're finding out it is not a unip polar world. Leaders across the world have said the United States economy, the envy of the world before Donald Trump got into office. It's not looking quite that way right now.

[Mika Brzezinski]

So that's Joe, over the past few months, and with respect, we also had very honest conversations with members of the business community, CEOs, even billionaires that supported Trump. And the reaction was, oh, Joe, he's not going to do that. He's Europe crazy. He's not going to do that. And yet Donald Trump's been quite consistent about this and now he is doing what he has said he was going to do.

[Ed Luce]

Well, I talked to a lot of people yesterday who had been brushing these warnings aside for months now, and they're not quite as confident this morning. They were not quite as confident yesterday. Steve Ratner, we've had this discussion before, too. The United States economy was the envy of the world, but it was incumbent upon Republicans, incumbent upon Republicans to do no harm. That is a classic Edmund Burke conservative approach. I'm an Edmund Burke conservative and I have been for 250 years now. But do no harm. And of course, this arrogant notion that the United States could tell the rest of the world, take it or leave it, acting as if this were, you know, 2000 or 2001, where, where we were the only game in town is just not the reality. And so I've been warning of three bubbles. The fiscal bubble, which still will explode at some point if Republicans don't get responsible. And that will be the ugliest bubble of all. The crypto bubble that is starting to pop and of course the stock market bubble. But as all the analysts that I read of yesterday, I'd love to get your input. We're talking about, it's the back and forth, it's the reckless, the radical policies. It's what JPMorgan Chase called extreme policies that Republicans are pushing that actually leading us down a pathway of this economic chaos that we saw play out in front of our eyes yesterday.

[Frank Holland]

Yeah, Joe, I think your last point is an important one as well as, of course, the rest of it. Look, they came in. They, I guess you could say they did. They said what they said they were going to do. But I don't think anybody really expected, nobody expected it was going to be this extreme, that Elon Musk was going to go in there wielding his Doge sledgehammer, smacking away at whatever he felt like, talking off the cuff about Social Security or this or that. But and so the policies they've actually articulated, that they're doing are very extreme. But what is really bothering the market as much as anything is uncertainty. You heard a reference in the earlier clip to the earlier guest to animal Spirits. Animal spirits was a coin, a phrase coined by John Maynard Keynes. And what it really means is that you can have policies, but a lot of what goes on in economy is how people feel. Are they excited? Are they optimistic? Do they believe it's going to get better? Or are they worried? And in Trump 1.0, whether you liked it or not, at least from the point of view of the business community, it was sort of clear it was logical. And it was things they liked in terms of tax changes, regulatory changes and so forth. This administration is all over the place. And one day they're cutting Social Security, the next day they're firing everybody at usaid and then they're rehiring some because the courts tell them to, because they realize they can't get the Social Security checks out without these people. And the tariffs go on, the tariffs go off, they get suspended, they get threatened in other places. And this is what business really can't live with, or consumers the uncertainty of not knowing what's going to happen. And so you do see consumers cutting back on spending. It fell in January for the first time in a long time. You do see, for example, the deal market, companies buying and selling each other almost at a standstill because nobody knows what the rules of the game are going to be for the companies once they merge. And it's kind of chaos is another word to put it. And so the stock market sees all that and says, as you just pointed out, it's kind of priced for perfection. It's had a great run. And why are we sitting up here at these high levels when there's all this crazy stuff going on in the world and anything could bring down the economy?

[Ed Luce]

Again, price for perfection, which is why, again, do no harm. That's what the warning was about. And I've got to say, anybody that didn't see this coming during the presidential election wasn't listening. Wasn't listening. And they certainly weren't listening to us. Because what did I mean, I bet you I talked to Andrew Ross Sorkin 100 times saying, Andrew, what are the two things that the market hates? They hate instability. Right. First of all. And they hate unpredictability. And that's exactly what they've been given. And that's why the market, I just got to say really quickly, because the work, because I think it was Charlie Gasparino that talked about animal spirits quoting John Maynard Keynes. You know, I was at a, I was at a roundtable at Loose and I think we talked about this. I certainly talked about it on the air time and time again. Sat a roundtable at King's College in Cambridge back in December and also talked with a lot of bankers and economic thinkers in London. And I came back and I talked about it on the show a lot. We were the envy of the world. Our economy was the envy of the world. And they kept talking about animal spirits. They kept talking about the extraordinary economic run the United States had had over the past two, three, four years. London wanted to emulate that. Berlin wanted to emulate that, Paris wanted to emulate that. They said, you all are just light years ahead of us. That it's hard to believe. That was just three, three and a half months ago. Nobody is saying in London, Paris, Berlin, across the world, I would like to be more like the United States economically today. Nobody's saying it. You talk to them now and they're like, man, we can't figure out what you guys are doing. And far from wanting to emulate us, now they're saying we're going to have to go it alone.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, it's actually remarkable. The last few days, the shift of stock market hopes and projections has crossed the Atlantic. I mean, Germany has had a so called Sputnik moment. We talk about John Maynard Keynes. The Germans are now talking about real spending, real reflation, and so are the French. Even the British are beginning to sort of move under Keir Starmer. So the animal spirits that the market is expecting to see have crossed the Atlantic. I think Trump inherited pretty much the perfect economy from a macroeconomic point of view. On January 20, there'd been a soft landing. Inflation was under control. The Magnificent Seven stocks were booming for good reason. And in seven short weeks, he's turned America from the star performer into the laggard. It's hard to think of any other president who in that short a period of time could have shifted the markets from bull to bear, as Trump has done in the last couple of months. It's remarkable.

[Mika Brzezinski]

President Trump likes to say often to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, you don't have the cards. If America's economy fails and it keeps continuing in the direction that it's continuing, the United States are not going to have the cards. It's going to be the trump cards and we're not going to have it.

[Ed Luce]

I don't think it's going to continue to fail. I do think they're going to be readjustments here, obviously. I mean, you look at the stocks that continue to fall, you know, I'm sure Donald Trump's not going to want to listen to Ronald Reagan, but Ronald Reagan had an old saying which was, if I can get 80% of what I want, well, then I'm not going to give that up for nothing. And, and he has believed in tariffs since 1987. This isn't something he dreamed up in the middle of this campaign or the last campaign, but targeted tariffs going after China, not going after our best trade partners. Those targeted tariffs would be far more popular politically and also they would do a lot less damage not only on Wall street, but on Main Street. And I got to say, Mika, I think most Americans would support targeted, tough tariffs on China.

[Mika Brzezinski]

We shall see. U.S. national Editor at the Financial Times, Ed Luce, thank you. Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner, thank you as well. And still ahead on MORNING joe, we'll go live to Saudi Arabia ahead of today's high stake talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian officials of ending the war with Russia. NBC's Keir Simmons is standing by for us. MORNING JOE is back in 90 seconds.

[Joe Scarborough]

This podcast is supported by Planned Parenthood Federation of America. Planned Parenthood Federation of America exists so all people can get access to the sexual and reproductive care and education they need. Planned Parenthood organizations advocate for health equity and policies that allow people the freedom to control their own bodies, lives and futures. More than 2 million patients a year rely on Planned Parenthood health center services like STI testing and treatment, birth control, gender affirming care, abortion, cancer screenings and more. Reproductive health care and rights are under attack from public officials who are out of step with the will of the vast majority of Americans. The constitutional right to abortion has been stolen and politicians in 47 states have introduced bills that would block people from getting the sexual and reproductive care they need. Planned Parenthood knows that equitable access to healthcare, including safe, legal abortion, is a human right. Right now, Planned Parenthood needs your help to protect access to healthcare. Donate today by visiting plannedparenthood.org protect start a business that sells and designs decorative plates. Find out. You have to keep up with invoices and paying vendors realize that you're better at selling plates than keeping them spinning. With Intuit QuickBooks, you can make quick work of unpaid invoices and auto track expenses all in one easy to use place so you can keep spinning selling those plates. Manage and grow your business all in one place. Intuit QuickBooks your way to Money Money movement services are provided by Intuit Payments, Inc. Licensed as a Money transmitter by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Did you know? 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving. Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights. Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway. As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety. With Greenlight Infinity's driving reports monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding and more. These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety, plus weekly updates. You can track their progress over time. Help keep your teens safe. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast.

[Mika Brzezinski]

As the hour Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukrainian territory and now Ukraine is launching retaliatory strikes. Russia's Defense Ministry said overnight its air defenses shot down over 300 Ukrainian drones in 10 different regions. This video shows the moment a drone slammed into the top of a building in Russia's Moscow region around 4am local time. That comes as Ukrainian officials are meeting right now with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US Officials for talks aimed at ending the years long war with Russia. On the plane to Saudi Arabia yesterday, Secretary Rubio previewed today's discussions.

[Ed Luce]

I don't have any predetermined words I need them to say, but I think primarily it's just a sense of where they are and where they're under understanding is that there's I think both sides need to come to an understanding that there's no military solution to this situation. The Russians can't conquer all of Ukraine and obviously it'll be very difficult for Ukraine in any reasonable time period to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014.

[Steve Ratner]

So the only solution to this war.

[Ed Luce]

Is the pumpkin and getting them to a table where that's possible.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Today's meeting will not involve Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although he was in the same city yesterday where talks are being held right now. Zelensky met with the Saudi crown prince, saying on social media they had a quote, detailed discussion on the steps and conditions needed to end the war.

[Ed Luce]

Let's begin right now, NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons. He's live from a jet of Saudi Arabia here. I must say, what Marco Rubio, what American secretary of state said yesterday on the airplane may have made big headlines that Ukraine is going to have to give up territory. But I must say it is the identical thing. And neither, neither gentleman will like me saying this is the identical thing. What then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley told me in 2023 before the vaude spring offensive by the Ukrainians, and he's like, now that's not going to drive the Russians out of Ukraine. They're going to have to come to a brokered peace for the same reasons that Marco Rubio was saying that on the plane over to Saudi Arabia yesterday. What tell us what's, what's going on over there now? What sort of the vibe, if we're to use the word of 2024 in Saudi Arabia right now around these peace talks?

[Keir Simmons]

Well, Joe, those talks have been going on now for more than an hour. In an adjacent room from here, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio holding up a thumbs up when he was asked as he headed into the room, the lead, the leader of the Ukrainian delegation, Andre Yermak, talking about the Americans as seeming constructive. I mean, we've been talking about in recent days, Joe, right. About how President Trump's language appears to have been changing, suggesting that it's going to be more difficult to get to a cease fire. And I think both Ukraine and Russia have been giving President Trump a lesson in that in recent days. That drone strike on Moscow overnight. Right. As these talks are getting started, described by a local official as the biggest drone strike on Moscow of this war, at least two killed, 17 injured, according to that local those local officials, on the other hand, Odessa hit again overnight in Ukraine, and there have been these escalating attacks by the Russians in recent days. So the reality is while the Americans and the Ukrainians are talking here, the Russians and Ukrainians only talk to each other in the language of war. And that is the difficulty. We do have a picture of the kinds of things that they're going to be talking about in the room right now. You mentioned Marco Rubio on the plane there. He was kind of hedging a little bit, not giving too much away, talking about that they are trying to get a sense from both Ukrainians and the Russians about what exactly where exactly they stand and how far apart they are. They're a long way apart, ostensibly, given what you're seeing on the battlefield, but there you are, the diplomacy now going on. And President Zelensky, who met with Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, who is playing a mediating role, talking overnight about some of the things that he had a conversation with the crown prince about, including the Russia, Russians sending back Ukrainian prisoners, including children. He's talked about the potential for security guarantees. He says with the crown prince that, of course, the vexed question that led to that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office, the Ukrainians still talking about security guarantees, not giving up on that, and then the Russians. Real quick, we are hearing from the Russians this morning and again, we've said many times, haven't we, the Russians are not in a hurry today, the Kremlin spokesman, Dimitri Peskov, saying we shouldn't have rose tinted glasses about our relationship with the United States.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Kier, it's Jonathan. What is the progress, as best you can tell, on this minerals deal that many thought was going to be signed in the Oval Office a couple of weeks back wasn't when that meeting devolved in two tensions and some anger even. And as well as the idea of territory you just mentioned, the security guarantees Ukraine still hoping to get, is there an early sense from what the US Is telling Ukraine what they may have to settle for, in their estimation, in terms of getting their land back?

[Keir Simmons]

Yeah, I mean, on the question of the minerals deal, look, it's possible that at this meeting they sign something. I think that's unlikely, but this is a work in progress. Just to make another point. There are two senior US Officials in the delegation there. There are three senior Ukrainian officials. That's because the envoy, Steve Wykoff, isn't here. He's gone to Qatar. So you get the sense that things are being done on the fly and that we've had that sense for some time and that continues. And I guess in a way, Jonathan, that goes to your second question about what are the what are the Americans saying they'll give and what are they demanding of the Ukrainians? It's tricky to tell. Look, you make a good point, Joe, about the question of territory. People will look back and ask whether the US Gave up the idea of Ukraine conceding territory before they even got into negotiations, whether that was wrong or whether it was simply a question of facts on the ground. But, but certainly, as we've said many times to the negotiations are happening right now.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Right.

[Keir Simmons]

We keep, we talk about people getting around the table. They're around the table in the room next door. There's talk about you know, potentially a US Official going to the, to Russia. We don't have that confirmed. But, you know, we're watching the negotiations in real time. But will they work? Will it work out the way President Trump suggests? We're nowhere near being able to say that this is going to be a success.

[Ed Luce]

All right. NBC News chief international correspondent Kir Simon live in Saudi Arabia. Thank you so much. And to underline Kir's point, you could go back even to the Biden administration. And all the officials in the Biden administration knew that the Ukrainians would have to give up land. Now, what's changed here is they were going to give up land in return for a security guarantee. And the question is, how does that get cobbled together? Does that mean NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine other than U.S. troops? And then a U.S. mineral still that puts Americans inside of Ukraine and sort of acts as a hair trigger. So the Russians almost said the Soviets, the Soviets can't come into Ukraine without killing Americans. That's really the question. How do you put together that security guarantee that the Biden administration was far more willing to offer up to Ukraine than the Trump administration is right now?

[Mika Brzezinski]

Well, it's a question we can ask U.S. ambassadors of Russia, Michael McFaul, who will be on Morning Joe in our fourth hour. Coming up, Mitch McConnell and the president he calls despicable. The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich sat down with the outgoing Republican senator. He joins us with a new look at his interview ahead on Morning Joe. And before we go to break, more from our 3050 summit in Abu Dhabi, where we gave the Know youw Value Award. It's an annual award to actress and activist Sheryl Lee Ralph.

[Ed Luce]

She was incredible.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Oh, my God, yes. Love her. Cheryl spoke to over 500 women from 46 different countries about her career, which includes her first Emmy win at the age of 66, her activism work and how women should put themselves first and not be afraid to take up space. Cheryl also attended our service day, giving tips and advice, career advice to a group of local high school theater students. And on Friday, she received her award at our International Women's Day Awards gala at the stunning Louvre Abu Dhabi. And she was simply amazing. Take a look.

[Joe Scarborough]

I.

[Ed Luce]

Am an endangered species.

[Frank Holland]

But I.

[Ed Luce]

Sing no victim song.

[Joe Scarborough]

Thank you, Mika, honorary girlfriend.

[Ed Luce]

Thank you for believing in the power of women. Thank you for having the vision and the foresight to create something like this so that others may follow for generations to come. Knowing your value.

[Joe Scarborough]

Oh, it's not always easy.

[Ed Luce]

For many of us, it has been a journey. A long journey, A journey of finding our voice, standing our ground, and learning.

[Joe Scarborough]

To take up space in rooms that.

[Ed Luce]

Were not always built for us.

[Joe Scarborough]

And like like so many women, I.

[Ed Luce]

Have faced moments of doubt. I have been underestimated. I have been told to wait my turn, to be grateful for what I have, to not ask for too much. But at every step, I had a choice. I could either shrink or I could rise, to accept less or to demand more. And I choose to rise.

[Joe Scarborough]

Did you know 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving? Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights. Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway. As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety With Greenlight Infinity's driving reports. Monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding and more. These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety. Plus, with weekly updates, you can track their progress over time. Help keep your teens safe. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast Businesses that are selling through the roof like Untucket make selling and for shoppers buying simple with Shopify, home of the number one checkout out on the planet. And with Shop Pay, you can boost conversions up to 50%. Businesses that sell more sell on Shopify. Upgrade your business and get the same checkout untuck it uses. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com podcastfree all lowercase go to shopify.com podcastfree to upgrade your selling today.

[Ed Luce]

Subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts. New episodes of all your favorite MSNBC shows now ad free plus ad free listening to all of Rachel Maddow's original series, Ultra Bagman and Deja News and all MSNBC original podcasts are available ad free and with bonus content including why is this Happening? Felshi Band Book Club and more. Subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Past the hour. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. The former leader of the Philipp has been arrested on accusations of crimes against humanity. Rodrigo Duterte was taken into custody at Manila's main airport after returning from a trip to Hong Kong. The International Criminal Court says the 79 year old was responsible for tens of thousands of deaths as part of his brutal crackdown in the country, which he cast as a war on drugs and crime. According to the New York Times, it appears that the Philippine government was prepared to surrender Mr. Duterte to the ICC. Ontario, Canada's most popular province, is hitting back at President Trump's tariffs by imposing a new 25% surcharge on electricity exported to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. During a news conference yesterday, Ontario's leader, Premier Doug Ford, said the move could increase electricity bills for some U.S. households by roughly $100 per month. And police say wildfires that tour across Long island over the weekend were sparked by someone making s'mores.

[Ed Luce]

Oh, good lord.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Yeah. Really making s'mores in their backyard.

[Ed Luce]

So we should, we should cut that out.

[Mika Brzezinski]

No s'mores.

[Ed Luce]

No s'mores. Over 4th of July with the kids.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Well, I don't know. This is not the Fourth of July.

[Ed Luce]

I'm just saying though, like s'mores, this is now one of the great threats.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Officials say the person who was trying to roast marshmallows used cardboard to light a fire. After struggling to get the flames going in the windy conditions, Governor Kathy Hochul has since instituted.

[Ed Luce]

Listen.

[Mika Brzezinski]

A burn ban on Long Island.

[Ed Luce]

That's that, that's some s'mores right there. The s'mores banned a lot of marshmallows you could use. That is, that was crazy. But no, it's not funny at all.

[Mika Brzezinski]

It's not funny.

[Ed Luce]

But from smarts Lemire, I never knew. Also, really big headline out of major leagues bad news and I do mean that. And the nightmare realized for New York Yankees and their fans. Ace pitcher Garrett Cole will have season ending Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow today. Decision to undergo the procedure comes after Cole sought a second opinion on the discomfort he experienced following his second outing of spring training last week. Week the 34 year old right hander is expected to be sidelined for at least part of the 2026 season as well as really is. It's really sad news. You know, we're obviously we're Red Sox fans but man, you want to see the best out there. And again I Garrett Cole is such a gritty, tough competitor. Feel terrible for him. And as we were saying yesterday, tongue in cheek, Rafi Devers does too because with Cole not there, he's going to hit five less home runs this year.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, Devers chances at the all star team do just take a hit. But Joe, you're right. We don't root for injuries. Injuries are a part of the game. But Sam, right now, injuries really piling up for the Yankees. Luis Heel, who was rookie of the year last year, he's out a few months. Colt as established out for the year. Giancarlo Stanton might also be facing season ending surgery. Yankees go into this season limping again.

[Mika Brzezinski]

You hate to see it.

[Steve Ratner]

You do.

[Mika Brzezinski]

You hate to see it.

[Ed Luce]

Sam, don't be sarcastic. We do hate to see it. You're being sarcastic.

[Mika Brzezinski]

I don't root for injuries. I wouldn't root for it. Garrett Cole is a very good pitcher and I, I wish the Yankees. I do.

[Ed Luce]

I will say, I will say yes. Last year, John was unusual for the Yankees. I don't know that I've seen a team over the past five years that have been hit by more injuries and I don't know exactly why that is. I know a few years ago, Yankees fans were complaining about the fact that they weren't in good shape. They didn't seem up to the task of playing. That changed, of course, last year. But man, they are always hit, it seems, in recent years with a ton of injuries, injuries. Last year, Jonathan was the exception to the rule.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, even Cole missed a little bit of time last year. But you're right, that's been a franchise that has had real issues. Maybe that was the impetus to their biggest off season move, which of course was changing their facial hair policy. Perhaps thinking that the beards, the neatly groomed beards that they could now grow would change their injury karma. Seems like it's not working, at least so far.

[Ed Luce]

You know, Mika, I can't ever have a serious conversation with either of these guys.

[Mika Brzezinski]

Why do you try?

[Ed Luce]

I don't know. Managing editor at the Bulwark, Sam Stein. You were completely sarcastic. We were trying. Trying to be sensitive.

[Joe Scarborough]

Still ahead, did you know 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving? Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights. Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway. As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety with Greenlight Infinity's driving reports. Monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding and more. These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety. Plus, with weekly updates, you can track their progress over time. Help keep your teens safe. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast.