Morning Joe: Marathon Senate vote on Trump's big bill drags out as Republicans struggle to find path to passage

Summary

Morning Joe Podcast Summary Episode: Morning Joe: Marathon Senate vote on Trump's big bill drags out as Republicans struggle to find path to passage
Release Date: July 1, 2025
Hosts: Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, and Willie Geist
Guests: Sam Stein, Ali Vitali, Michael Schnell, Danny Savalos, John Fetterman, Richard Haass

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1. Introduction: The Senate's Prolonged Vote on Trump's Mega Bill

The episode kicks off with Willie Geist introducing the central topic: the Senate's extended deliberation on the Republican Party's ambitious policy legislation, dubbed by President Trump as the "Big Beautiful bill." Termed a "votarama" due to its marathon voting process, the bill aims to implement significant policy changes but faces internal hurdles within the Republican ranks.

Key Quote:

"We're as close to the House." [00:58] — Willie Geist

2. Legislative Process and Challenges

The Senate began advancing the bill early in the morning, with Majority Leader John Thune instituting new amendment rules, limiting vote times to 10 minutes each. The bill's passage hinges on a slim majority; a mere four Republican defections could derail it. Additionally, if the Senate's version barely passes, it must be reconciled with the House's version by the July 4 deadline.

Key Quotes:

"We're just going to vote for it and in like a matter of hours. It's really, really weird, odd." [11:04] — Sam Stein
"This is not a concentrated group of defectors... a number of different pressure points." [08:09] — John Fetterman

3. Republican Party Dynamics and Internal Struggles

The discussion delves into the fragmented Republican stance on the bill. Key figures like Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins express reservations, particularly regarding Medicaid cuts estimated to reduce federal spending by over a trillion dollars. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that the bill could inflate the national debt by more than $3 trillion and leave nearly 12 million Americans uninsured by 2034.

Key Quote:

"Nothing's going on with Ukraine and Russia. The war is grinding on and getting worse." [26:06] — Michael Schnell

4. Impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill"

The bill's repercussions are significant, with projections indicating severe cuts to Medicaid and other federal programs. The CBO's analysis points to a strained national budget and millions potentially losing health coverage, sparking concern among both lawmakers and the public.

Key Quotes:

"It's going to $3.3 trillion according to the CBO, to the debt over the next 10 years. That's going to gut Medicaid." [08:40] — Willie Geist
"Nobody views this as a pleasant place for Attorneys like me to be, the conviction rate is well into the mid-90 percentile." [38:06] — Danny Savalos

5. Elon Musk's Influence and Pressure on Republican Lawmakers

Elon Musk emerges as a pivotal figure exerting pressure on Republicans opposing the bill. Through social media posts, Musk criticizes the bill, labeling it the "Porky Pig party" and threatening to support primary challenges against any lawmakers who endorse it. President Trump retaliates by mocking Musk, emphasizing Trump's influence and suggesting Musk's ventures would falter without political subsidies.

Key Quotes:

"Any lawmaker who votes for the mega bill should hang their head in shame." [12:58] — Elon Musk
"Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history by far." [12:58] — President Trump
"Trumpism is more important to Republicans than Elon's money." [16:46] — Sam Stein

6. The Role of Trumpism in Republican Decision-Making

Despite Musk's threats, the conversation highlights that Trumpism holds substantial sway within the Republican Party. Leaders feel compelled to align with Trump's agenda to maintain political viability, often sidelining fiscal concerns raised by figures like Musk.

Key Quotes:

"Trump has enormous leverage if he decides to use it." [24:43] — Michael Schnell
"Trumpism prevails usually." [08:50] — Sam Stein

7. Middle East Policy and Netanyahu's White House Visit

Transitioning to foreign policy, the podcast features insights from Richard Haass on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming visit to the White House. The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is complex, marked by Trump's attempts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and navigate tensions with Iran. Netanyahu seeks to secure a ceasefire while maintaining political stability amidst internal pressures and legal challenges.

Key Quote:

"Can now the administration resurrect the basis of a cease fire?" [21:23] — Michael Schnell
"Bibi Netanyahu is stronger." [30:55] — Richard Haass

8. Other Key News Highlights

While the primary focus remains on domestic policy and the Senate vote, the episode briefly touches on other significant stories:

• President Trump's scheduled meeting with Netanyahu amidst Middle East tensions.
• Legal proceedings involving high-profile individuals like Sean "Diddy" Combs.
• A dramatic water rescue on a Disney cruise, highlighting emergency response efficacy.

9. Conclusion: Uncertain Path Forward for the Bill

As the episode wraps up, the uncertainty surrounding the bill's passage remains palpable. With Republicans navigating internal divisions and external pressures from influential figures like Musk, the outcome of the "Big Beautiful bill" hangs in the balance. The hosts express skepticism about the bill's final success, citing procedural oddities and the fragmented GOP stance.

Key Quote:

"No one's seen the final text of this bill. We just got considerations." [03:44] — John Fetterman

Notable Takeaways

• Legislative Hurdles: The Senate faces significant challenges in passing the bill due to internal Republican divisions and stringent amendment processes.
• Fiscal Concerns vs. Party Loyalty: Lawmakers grapple with balancing fiscal responsibility, as highlighted by Musk's criticisms, against maintaining alignment with Trump's agenda.
• Influence of External Actors: Elon Musk's attempts to sway Republican votes underscore the increasing role of high-profile individuals in legislative processes.
• Foreign Policy Integration: Domestic legislative actions are intertwined with foreign policy maneuvers, particularly in the context of US-Israel relations and Middle East stability.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the multifaceted discussions of the "Morning Joe" episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the Senate's legislative challenges, internal party dynamics, and the broader implications of the ongoing political maneuvers.

Transcript

[Willie Geist]

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[Sam Stein]

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[Willie Geist]

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[Ali Vitali]

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[Michael Schnell]

With Thumbtack, you don't have to be.

[Willie Geist]

A home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see.

[Sam Stein]

Price estimates and read reviews all on the app.

[Ali Vitali]

Download Today subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts for early access, ad free listening and bonus content to all of MSNBC's original podcasts, including the chart topping series the Best People with Nicole Wallace, why Is this Happening? Main justice and more. Plus new episodes of all your favorite MSNBC shows ad free and ad free listening to all of Rachel Maddow's original series, Ultra Bagman and Deja News. Subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts.

[Sam Stein]

We'Re going to pass this bill one.

[Willie Geist]

Way or the other. And I have prevailed upon my Senate.

[Sam Stein]

Colleagues to please, please, please.

[Michael Schnell]

We're as close to the House.

[Willie Geist]

Please, please. House Speaker Mike Johnson pleading with the Senate to keep its version of President Trump's mega bill as close as possible to what the House passed back in May. Good morning. Welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, July 1st. I'm Willie Geist. Great to be back with you. The Senate is nearly a full day now into a votarama, as it's called, on the Republican Party's massive policy legislation that President Trump calls the Big Beautiful bill. Lawmakers began to speed up the process around 2 o' clock in the morning after Majority Leader John Thune announced a new share of amendments, telling lawmakers he was limiting votes to 10 minutes apiece. The bill will fail to pass if just four Republicans vote no. That's the margin. If the Senate does pass this bill by the skin of its teeth. Its version then also does have to go back and pass the House as Congress tries to meet the White house deadline of July 4, which is Friday. Late last night, several conservatives huddled with Speaker Thune Leader Thune as it became clear an amendment they were pushing to further reduce Medicaid spending did not have the votes to pass. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate's bill would add more than $3 trillion to the national debt, while also cutting federal spending on Medicaid by more than a trillion dollars. The legislation would result in nearly 12 million Americans losing insurance by the year 2034, all of that, according to the CBO. Meanwhile, we heard lawmakers frustrated about the process for a number of reasons, including this one from Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

[Michael Schnell]

Oh, my God, I just want to go home. I've already, I've missed our entire trip to the beach. My family's going to be back before we that. So and again, I'm going to vote no. There's no drama. The votes are going to go. In fact, the only interesting votes are going to be on the margin, whether that's Collins or Johnson and those. But all the Democrats, we all know how that's going to go. And I think, I don't think it's really helpful to put people here till some ungodly hour.

[Willie Geist]

Man just wants to get to the beach. Let's bring in managing editor at the Bulwark, Sam Stein, the host of Way Too Early, Ally Vitale and congressional reporter for the Hill, Michael Schnell. Good morning to you all. Ali, let me start with you. Back on the beat this morning and in style with this Votorama, which the name is a lot more fun than the process itself, actually. So just for view, waking up this morning, we're nearly 24 hours into this process. What is happening as we sit here right now? And how soon might they get to a point where the Senate is ready to vote in full on this thing?

[John Fetterman]

Yeah, I've long said this vote a ramas sound extremely fun, but they are actually quite painful. And you're watching some of these senators show the pain. I mean, just a few hours ago, we saw Senator Chuck Grassley sitting in the well of the Senate where the Senate pages usually sit, looking dejected. But at that point, they had been going since 9:45 in the morning yesterday, working now throughout the night. And look, this is both part of the process, but then also a stalling tactic for Senate leadership who are still actively cobbling together the votes here. On the one hand, vote Aramas are meant to be lengthy. It's an amendment process. It's a chance for Democrats to jam Republicans on issues like shoring up food assistance programs that are being cut in this bill, shoring up Medicaid, rural hospitals. All of those are pieces that Democrats and even some Republicans have tried to force votes on to try to make tweaks and changes to this bill. Most of those have failed, but they will resurface in the form of campaign ads later in the 2026 cycle. But then there's the piece of this where they're just trying to buy themselves some time. Leader John Thune has had members shuttling in and out of his office and Many of those members are the ones that Senator Fetterman are saying are gonna be interesting to watch here. I've got a list in front of me. You've got people like the usual names that we often talk about, Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. Both of them have said that they have problems with this bill. For Murkowski, it became even more difficult because the Senate parliamentarian ruled. One of the key pieces that was in this bill that could have helped her get to yes was actually not okay in this bill. It didn't meet the rules that the parliamentarian sees as being germane to this process. So that could make this a more difficult yes, vote for Murkowski. But then you've also got the absolute nose. People like Rand Paul and Thom Tillis. Thom Tillis newly unshackled because he is saying that he's not going to run for reelection. Then, of course, there's Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has been clear that he has concerns about the deficit pieces on this. And then you've got other people like Rick Scott of Florida, Mike Lee of Utah, who have other provisions that they are trying to see if they can get in to make this a more palatable yes vote for them. I do think that ultimately the politics of Trumpism are gonna win out here. But it's a tough morning to wake up for Republicans here, Willie, as they're still trying to get the votes together as they're nearing what could be one of the longest vote Aramas ever in the Senate.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, Michael Schnell. Over the last decade or so, it's been a pretty safe bet to say Republicans in the end will side with Donald Trump and get to the vote that he wants them to get to. He's applying new with social media posts overnight, sending out JD Vance, posting others as well, kind of really putting their foot on the gas on some of these Republicans. But as Ali said, you've got two hard nos in Senators Thom Tillis and Rand Paul. That leaves you not much wiggle room. They can get three and let Vice President Vance break the tie, but if they get to four, they're done. So what's your sense of the whip count right now?

[Danny Savalos]

It seems, as Ali laid out, that you have Thom Tillis and Ron Johnson, who are absolute nos at this moment. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins seem to be leaning no with their concerns about Medicaid cuts. And then you have a host of fiscal Republicans, fiscal hawks, who it really seems unclear what way they will go. These are people like Rick Scott, Ron Johnson, And Mike Lee, essentially those three had held out support for the budget for the procedural vote on over the weekend, saying they weren't going to support it. But what clinched their support was John Thune saying that he would back an amendment vote. He would hold an amendment vote and support an amendment vote to implement additional Medicaid cuts. And in the bill. And now it seemed that that was going to help those three fiscal hawks get on board in the end. Well, that amendment hasn't come up yet and it seems as though it is doomed to fail. There are a number of Republicans who said they don't plan to support it. Someone like Josh Hawley, for example, said that he is not in support of that amendment. So with those Medicaid changes, those additional beefed up Medicaid cuts not being implemented in the bill, it is unclear where those three fiscal hawks go. And so I think that really the more difficult part of this for John Thune now is this is not a concentrated group of defect of defectors. This is not a group of opponents that all have the same qualms. He's dealing with a number of different pressure points. So you put out a fire in one corner, it could create a fire in another corner. That's the difficult juggling act that Thune is dealing with right now that quite frankly, he's been dealing with nearly the past 24 hours.

[Willie Geist]

So, Sam, what's your sense of the nose holding that may be going on by some Republicans who consider themselves conservatives over the course of their political career voting for something that's going to $3.3 trillion according to the CBO, to the debt over the next 10 years? It's going to gut Medicaid. That's what Senator Collins is arguing for here. We've got to get this Medicaid money to rural hospitals in states like Maine. But in states across the country, it's how those hospitals exist. Is this a painful vote for many Republicans to take?

[Sam Stein]

Well, first of all, we're just going to skip past the fact that Ali said Vote Armors sound cool. They do not sound cool.

[Willie Geist]

It sounds fun. I think she said it does sound fun.

[Sam Stein]

They don't sound fun.

[John Fetterman]

It's like a carnival R game.

[Sam Stein]

No, they don't sound fun and she shouldn't get a pass for that. And secondly, can we. I would like to talk a little bit about that. Good morning. I would like to talk a little bit about that Fetterman clip. Unbelievable. Get to the beach. I mean, come on, you have a job to do. Just do the job, man. To your question, this is like a really interesting process to a degree. It's also very scary, right? Like we're, we're looking at tens, not 16 million people potentially losing their health care coverage, all things considered, a massive blow to the deficit and debt, all to finance a tax cut extension that skews primarily for the really, really rich. And to your question, yeah, there are some members who care ostensibly about deficit and debt who are uncomfortable with this. But what you're seeing is just the gravitational pull of Trumpism just wins out for a lot of these people. And so, you know, I know we're talking about, well, can Ron Johnson and Mike Lee really get to this bill and if they, you know, will their amendment pass and can that determine the vote? I think we sort of know the answer is that yeah, they'll find a way get to the pill, right? It's like Josh Holly spent months saying, all right, we can't cut Medicaid for people, we can't cut Medicaid for people. Then he's like, you know what, this bill will cut Medicaid for people, but I'll vote for it because I'm going to then work to stop it from cutting Medicaid for people. And it's like, well, how do you rationalize this stuff? So really just comes down to, you know, will Lisa Murkowski get bought off by a few carve out provisions that allow Alaska to escape the worst consequences of this legislation? And that's literally what we're talking about. Can they prevent this legislation from harming one state enough that that state senator will say, you know what, I'll allow it to happen to 49 other states, but my state's fine and therefore she votes for the bill. And that's kind of a messed up way to do legislation. Now will it then pass the House? I don't know. Probably because Trumpism prevails usually. But if you just step back and you look at the process by which they're putting this together, no one's seen the final text of this bill. We just got considerations. But they're still putting together this. And the expectation is that they're just going to turn around and vote for it and in like a matter of hours. It's really, really weird, odd. Probably not the best way to write massive legislation like this.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, and you mentioned the House. The Freedom Caucus in the House is not pleased with what it's watching in the Senate in terms of the debt and the deficit. So just weeks after he said he will step back from politics to focus on his businesses. Elon Musk is back in the fray again, publicly bashing this Republican mega bill. In a social media post yesterday, Musk wrote, it is obvious with the insane spe of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion, that we live in a one party country, the Porky Pig party. He writes, time for a new political party that actually cares about the people. Musk followed up with another post calling for the creation of the America Party if the, quote, insane spending bill passes. Musk then continued his online rant, writing, any lawmaker who votes for the mega bill, quote, should hang their head in shame. He threatened to primary those politicians next year if it is the last thing I do on this earth. President Trump, as you can imagine, responded overnight on social media, writing in part, elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history by far. And without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more rocket launches, satellites, or electric car production, and our country would save a fortune. Perhaps we should have doge take a good hard look at this. Big money to be saved, writes the President of the United States in a post overnight, Ali Vitaly. So Elon Musk has expressed Ali his dismay about this bill previously, then walked back a little bit from his personal criticism of Donald Trump, but now kind of getting back to the policy on the debt and the deficit. Obviously, he has invested interest in this bill not passing. Does this matter at all? Does pressure from Elon Musk matter if he said, says he's gonna primary anyone who votes for it?

[John Fetterman]

So when there was the initial explosion of the personal relationship between Musk and Trump, there was the entertainment factor of watching these two men go back and forth on social media. But then there was also the more tangible threat of what will Musk do with his money? The power of the Musk purse was so tangible and palpable in the early weeks of the Trump administration. You'll remember during the confirmation battles, many of the members on Capitol Hill were quietly whispering about the fact that Musk was saying that they would primary people who weren't marching in with the President's agenda. So, Michael, now here we are with members saying that, with Musk saying, if you actually vote for this bill, I'm gonna potentially fund primaries against you. And I think it puts these Republican members in exactly the same dynamic that they were in when Musk was actually on Trump's team. They're getting squeezed now in a different way. But Musk's money was Always the central energizing factor for their actions. The question is what happens when the money comes in contrast with. With the Trump of it.

[Michael Schnell]

All right.

[Danny Savalos]

And you know, what's interesting about Musk's lobbying right now is he seems to be targeting people intentionally. We spoke about this earlier. He specifically went after the House Freedom Caucus yesterday saying, how could you call yourself the Freedom Caucus if you're going to support a bill that would add trillions of dollars to the deficit? He knows all and well that the Freedom Caucus includes members who really hate this bill, but are grappling with the fact of, well, can I oppose it and agree with what I want to do political policy wise, but politically that'll get me in lot of hot water with President Trump. So it's interesting because the Trump Musk factor is kind of playing in with the policy, the legislation as well. And you also have that then threat of the primary. What folks may be considering is, well, fine, you know, I know that I may well not want to get the wrath of a Musk primary challenge. Yes, he has money, but there's a lot of questions about the candidates he backs, whether or not they could actually win. Right. Recruitment. But at the end of the day, it's also the ire of Trump, which is going to outweigh Musk, I think, in a lot of ways. But it's interesting who he's targeting because he's sort of. He's getting the people who are on the fence. But will they take the bait?

[Michael Schnell]

I'm not sure.

[Willie Geist]

And Sam, you had Elon Musk saying yesterday he's going to support Congressman Thomas Massie's reelection bid, the Republican from Kentucky, because he voted against the bill in the House, trying to perhaps symbolic, suggesting I will support candidates who vote against this. But the same question to you. Does this pressure from Elon Musk on members matter at this point, or is their loyalty to Donald Trump more important to them? Them?

[Sam Stein]

I'm kind of surprised by how little it seems to matter at this point.

[Willie Geist]

Right.

[Sam Stein]

Like, he's the world's richest man. He could fund to a huge degree primary challenges or general election campaigns. He also was the Republican Party's biggest donor. And then for a while, he was the most important aide in the White House. And yet in a matter of weeks, he's gone from someone who's just sort of lobbing Twitter criticisms and making threats that people are largely ignoring. So, you know, maybe on the margins, like, sure, Tom Matz gladly help take the help. Maybe there are a few fiscal conservatives who might think, well, I can, I can walk this plank perhaps if Elon's win me. But I think a more effective way, honestly would be if Elon Musk would just like say to, you know, some centrist independence, you know, primary, some House moderate like that, that would go further. Of course, hanging over all this is what Trump threatened, which is that Elon Musk has huge amounts of business with the federal government that are just hanging out there. I mean, just Yesterday, I think SpaceX scored like it was announced that SpaceX scored an 81.6 million doll to launch US military weather monitoring balloons. I mean, that's a huge amount of money. And we know that Trump's pretty vindictive. So, you know, we're in a weird place. But I do ultimately think Trumpism is more important to Republicans than Elon's money.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah. For their political survival, certainly. All right, Sam, we're going to let you and Ali patch things up as we go to break here. Meanwhile, congressional reporter for the Hill Michael Schnell. Michael, thanks so much. Still ahead on MORNING Joe, President Trump is set to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks at the White House next week amid a renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Well, the latest out of the Middle east, plus jury deliberations underway in the criminal trial for Sean Diddy Combs. But there appears to be a problem with one juror in those deliberations. We'll explain. And a reminder, the Morning Joe Podcast is available each and every weekday, featuring our full conversations and analysis. You can listen wherever you get your podcast. You are watching MORNING JOE on the first day of July. We'll be right back.

[Ali Vitali]

MSNBC's Jen Psaki, host of the Briefing.

[Richard Haass]

We've never experienced a moment like this.

[Willie Geist]

In our country, and it leaves us.

[Richard Haass]

All with a choice.

[Willie Geist]

Are we going to speak out or.

[Danny Savalos]

Are we going to be pressured into silence?

[Willie Geist]

I've worked for presidents. I've faced the tough questions from the.

[Richard Haass]

Press and even through threats from the Kremlin.

[Willie Geist]

And if there's one thing I've learned.

[John Fetterman]

It'S that you can't cower to bullies.

[Willie Geist]

You don't need to be hopeless. We have our voices, and I will continue using mine.

[Ali Vitali]

The Briefing with Jen Psaki, Tuesday through Friday at 9pm Eastern on MSNBC. Start your day with the MSNBC Daily Newsletter. Sharp insights from voices you trust, standout moments from your favorite shows, and fresh perspectives from experts shaping the news. Sign up [e-mail] hey, it's me, Jon.

[Sam Stein]

Lovett, host of Love it or Leave It America's Number one Late night Political Gay Live Comedy Podcast Each week I break down the biggest and dumbest stories in politics to help you keep up with and laugh at the news. It's amazing to think how much the show has changed. We're always pushing to make sure that we're doing a show you can't find anywhere else. And this season that's what I hope you'll find not only in the jokes at the top of the show, but also in the interviews and segments we'll be doing. With an incredible lineup up, I guess I'm really excited to talk to listen to episodes of Love it or Leave it every Saturday or watch on YouTube or come to a live show in L A. You'll be amazed by what we cut.

[Willie Geist]

Time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ will open at record highs after capping their best quarter in over a year. Trade talks with China and the UK have fueled some optimism that an all out trade war can be minimized. The Dow added 276 points in yesterday's set. President Trump could soon settle a lawsuit with the media giant Paramount, the parent company of CBS News. The president's lawyers accused the news network of misleadingly editing a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris during the 2024 campaign. CBS News has denied wrongdoing. Saves routine editing for time. According to a legal filing on Monday, both sides are engaged in good faith and advanced settlement negotiations. We'll see where that settles out. And there was an amazing weather phenomenon in Portugal on Sunday when a rare roll cloud spread over the northern and central coast. Look at this. Tube shaped clouds. They move horizontally. They form when there's a significant difference in temperature between the land and sea surfaces. Europe has been gripped by a record breaking heat wave in recent days. What a picture. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the White House next Monday, his third trip to Washington during Donald Trump's second term. The visit comes just weeks after the US Broke a fragile cease fire between Israel and Iran following American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Since then, attention has returned to Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip as President Trump renews his push for a ceasefire there and for a hostage release deal. Negotiations over Gaza remain stalled, with both Israel and Hamas holding firm to their demands. Citing local medical officials in Gaza, the New York Times reports an Israeli airstrike hit a beachfront cafe in Gaza City yesterday, killing more than 24 people and injuring dozens of others. Joining us now at the table, President emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. He's the author of the weekly newsletter Home and Away, available on Substack. Richard, always great to see you, my friend. Morning, Willie. So let's talk about Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House on Monday. You've been writing on Substack lately about this relationship between Donald Trump where he's shown a willingness to push back against Netanyahu and many of our allies, actually at times when he thinks it's warranted. So what's sort of hanging in the air as these two men sit together in the Oval Office?

[Michael Schnell]

There's lots hanging in the air. I mean, as you say, the United States, America first doesn't necessarily mean Israel first. The president, if you remember, pushed back against Netanyahu on attacking Iran. Israelis wanted to do it to it US had its own deal with the Houthis. They had their own deal with Hamas. You could go on and on. On the other hand, the president is intervening in Israeli politics right now, now essentially saying that the legal case against Bibi Netanyahu should be dropped. This is an interesting relationship. President, if you remember, when he ran, said one of his goals to bring about a ceasefire and cease fire in Gaza, to bring the hostages back home. You had a deal which the administrator, new administration then and the old administration jointly brought about. Then the Israelis balked at the second phase of it. The whole idea was to get the hostages back. The Israelis would have had to agree to a cease fire and a pullout from Gaza. So that's still where things stand. And things have gotten worse, as you just saw on that story. A lot of people are being killed. And the people of Gaza, the 2 million residents are being packed into ever ever smaller pieces of territory. So life there is unimaginably awful. So the question is, can now the administration resurrect the basis of a cease fire?

[Willie Geist]

As you watch this, this latest beachfront attack, missile strike strike in Gaza City, what at this point now is the end game for Bibi Netanyahu? In other words, if President Trump is trying to negotiate a ceasefire and things like this are happening, where does Prime Minister Netanyahu want this to end for Israel? What does he want?

[Michael Schnell]

Look, what he wants to do is have this end, but in a manner will he that he can stay on as prime minister and escape his legal consequences. So it's all caught up in that. The good news is that Bibi Netanyahu has more political standing now because of Iran. So he may have a little bit more strength, a little bit more potential to compromise. He would like to get the hostages back. That would be a big win. All Israelis want to see that. The question is, how does he do that in a way that he hasn't eliminated Hamas. Hamas still has a role. And how do you keep order in Gaza? The Israelis still here it is what, it's over a year and a half since October 7th. There's still not a serious plan, a viable plan, for what comes afterwards. Right now, the security situation in Gaza is a mixture of Israeli occupation and gangs, let's be honest. And the question is, how do you get something where the Israelis don't have to be there, Hamas can't revive. The only idea people can think of is some type of an Arab force. But to have an Arab force, you'd have to have a large Palestinian component in that force. That's something the Israelis balk at because they don't want to do anything in Gaza that would give momentum, that would impart momentum to Palestinian nationalism. So that's been the dilemma all along. And the real question, quite honestly, is how hard does Donald Trump push Bibi Netanyahu? Because right now, if he pushed Bibi Netanyahu, Trump actually is more popular than anybody in any Israel. And if the Israelis didn't like what Donald Trump were doing, guess what? Who do they go to here? They're going to go to Chuck Schumer. There's no way to do an end run around Donald Trump. So Trump has enormous leverage if big if he decides to use it on.

[Willie Geist]

Bibi Netanyahu, a popularity obviously enhanced by President Trump's decision to attack those nuclear sites inside Iran, and now trying to broker some kind of a conversation between Israel and Iran. What does that even look like? Like, in terms of a ceasefire, which is fragile, to say the least.

[Michael Schnell]

Well, it's fragile and it doesn't really address the real issue, which is Iran. You know, right now, the Iranians have two goals. One is to make sure their regime survives. And there's been really some dark stories coming out of Iran about how they're going around the country looking for anyone who they can think may have been cooperating with Israel or whatever, but, you know, regime survival is the big thing. The second is whether at some point the Iranians decide what they want to do is reconstruct, constitute their nuclear program in a way that it can't be reached by Israeli or American missiles or bombs or what have you. And I think that's a long term challenge. So even though we talked about obliteration, the reality is we didn't. Elements of the Iranian nuclear program survived and the three sites we attacked, elements of it survived which were never there, that had been moved out. So I think there's a long term, there's a long term issue between Iran and both Israel and the United States about what's going to happen with this nuclear program. Can it be resolved diplomatically? That would be a long shot. Can it be dealt with militarily? That might be something necessary down the road, but I think that's where we are. This problem hasn't gone away. It's just reached a new chapter.

[Willie Geist]

Meanwhile, President Trump signed an executive order yesterday ending several economic sanctions on Syria. According to treasury officials, the EO is designed to end Syria's isolation from the international financial system. The move does not rescind sanctions imposed on former Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who was ousted last winter. President Trump also threatened new tariffs on Japan overstalled trade talks yesterday, criticizing its refusal to import U.S. rice. Politico reports Japan has insisted any deal must remove U.S. tariffs on Japanese made automobiles and auto parts. Trump's threat came as Japan's top trade negotiations with U.S. commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. They met and sat for a little while. So two very different stories there. Let's start at the end with Japan, which gets at your piece. Donald Trump is not afraid to go after allies as much as adversaries in some case.

[Michael Schnell]

No, indeed, it's easier to go after allies because you have more to do with allies almost by definition. And yeah, allies don't get special treatment. This is the most unsentimental American foreign policy we've ever seen. Doesn't really matter if you're an ally and if anything, at times Donald Trump seems, seems to like adversaries. Look at his relationship with Russia. He wants a big deal with China. He's been pushing around Canada. Will he Canada backed off on the latest tax they introduced. The U. S. Japan relationship's been really rocky. This is the world's third largest economy. Look, the administration just take a step back for a second. The administration has put into place all these tariffs. It set time, limited goals for itself. 90 days to get things done. It can't do it. So we've got a situation now where the administration has to figure out how to deal with all these trade relationships in a time period that is essentially unmanageable. And I think you're going to see interim deals. You're going to see certain punting, putting the thing down the road. But this is complicated with the Japanese and others. You can't. These agreements usually take years to negotiate. The idea that you're going to do 100 of them in a matter of two or three months, it's not on. So we're going to have to either delay it or accept kind of minimal agreements.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, Canada, we're negotiating with them right now. We're all over the place on the tariffs. Sam Stein, you got one for Richard?

[Sam Stein]

Well, let me just say to Richard, it's very easy how to see this is resolved. Donald Trump says we need more time and I'm going to give myself more time. And there you go, problem solved. I love negotiating. I wanted to go back to the Middle east because there's something really interesting happening with respect to Trump, Bibi and domestic politics here, because Bibi, one of the constraining factors, as I understood it for him with respect to Gaza, but other areas was that he had even more hawkish members of his government who were saying, you cannot take your foot off the gas. And I'm wondering, does the ability of Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites with the support of the president, does this inherent breakthrough diplomatically with Syria over the Golan Heights, do those things allow Bibi to have a little bit more room to operate to get a Gaza deal? Or do we just think Bibi just doesn't really want a deal? Right. Like he's had various off ramps over the past year and a half. Maybe he just doesn't want a deal and they are serious about occupation of Gaza and moving the Palestinians out and building some sort of mar a lot on the med. And I just want to know what your take is on that dynamic.

[Michael Schnell]

It's a fair question. And your supposition, though is right. Bibi Netanyahu does have more mobility politically right now because of what happened with Iran. He changed the conversation and what he did was something that brought Israelis together. There's no doves in Israel when it comes to Iran or the nuclear program. So this was a really useful thing for him to have done in that sense. Sam, I think he wants a deal. He just doesn't want a deal at what he would see the price or the cost of a quote, unquote, you know, a Palestinian nationalism gaining a lot of momentum. So he's trying to somehow parse that. So I think he's open to it, quote unquote, in principle, but not at what he would see at any price. But I do think politically, Bibi Netanyahu is stronger. That's the bottom line. So I think this is a moment if Donald Trump wants to, to push because I actually think the threat to blow up the Israeli government now is a little bit more empty than it was before. And so I would push. I actually think, you know, right now nothing's going on with Ukraine and Russia. The war is grinding on and getting worse. Iran was dealt with militarily for the time being. So this is the one diplomatic opportunity Donald Trump has to make some progress. And I think this would in the long run, you know, be big. And so I would he should certainly press it. He should certainly, certainly, certainly explore it. And by the way, it would also help with the Saudis. Something Donald Trump very much wants to do is to bring them into the so called Abraham Accords, bring them into the diplomatic process. This is potentially a win, win for the administration.

[Willie Geist]

And he'll get a chance to do all of that when the two men meet face to face at the White House on Monday. President emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. Richard, great to have you as always.

[Michael Schnell]

Have a good fourth.

[Willie Geist]

All right, you too. Coming up, the suspect accused of killing killing four college students in Idaho appears to have reached a plea deal with prosecutors that likely will take the death penalty off the table. Tell you why not everyone is happy about that. MSNBC legal analyst Danny Savalos joins us to break down that case as well as the rocky start to jury deliberations in the criminal trial of Sean Diddy Combs. We'll explain when MORNING JOE comes right back.

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[Willie Geist]

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[Willie Geist]

Hours into deliberations in the criminal trial for Sean Diddy Combs, the jury sent a note to the judge expressing concerns over one of its members. NBC News correspondent Chloe Melas has details.

[Richard Haass]

Only about an hour after the case of Sean Diddy Combs was turned over to the jury, already a potential wild card in the deliberation room. ROOM the jury delivering a note to the judge saying one juror is not following Instructions. He's a 51 year old scientist with a PhD.

[John Fetterman]

It was unclear whether or not there was a concern about following the legal instructions or the other instructions about how to approach the case.

[Richard Haass]

Is it too late to replace a juror?

[Willie Geist]

It's not.

[John Fetterman]

The judge can, but it would be a big deal once deliberations start.

[Richard Haass]

The case is complex and sprawling. Combs charged with five federal counts, including racketeering, sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution. In this courthouse, eight men and four women are sifting through seven weeks of testimony from 34 witnesses as media from all over the world await a verdict. As jurors began deliberating in the courtroom, Combs family joined hands and prayed. Prosecutors allege Combs ran a criminal enterprise, wielding his power to have employees carry out illegal activity on his behalf. They also argued that he used violence, drugs, drugs and threats of blackmail to coerce former girlfriends Cassie Ventura and another referred to only as Jane, to have sex with male escorts while he watched. In contrast, the defense not calling any witnesses, resting their case in 30 minutes, Combs declined to take the stand. But in closing arguments, his lead attorney, Mark Agnifolo said all sexual encounters were consensual, saying Combs had a swinger's lifestyle. Agnifolo also arguing that this video of Combs beating Ventura at a Los Angeles Hotel in 2016 is evidence of domestic violence, not sex trafficking, going so far as to call their relationship a great modern love story.

[Michael Schnell]

Wow.

[Willie Geist]

Chloe Melas reporting there. Let's bring in NBC News and MSNBC legal analyst Danny Savalos. Danny, good to see you this morning. So let's go back for a minute and talk about juror number three. Fellow jurors saying to the judge that this juror is not following the judge's instructions. Potentially in your experience, what could that mean exactly?

[Michael Schnell]

Yeah.

[H]

Willie, in all trials, and especially in high profile trials, a lot of the judge's job is managing juror shenanigans. You'd be amazed at how often, if you've served on jury duty or any lawyers who have tried cases, they know that jurors do the darndest thing. So this may just be something where the judge can admonish the juror, bring him out in front of the parties and tell the juror what to do. Or it might be something that really becomes a problem, and if it does, they can get rid of the jury juror and slide in one of the alternate jurors. They took a large number. The maximum number of alternate jurors, six, as opposed to the normal two that they take in trials such as this, in anticipation of exactly these issues that might come up.

[Willie Geist]

So let's talk about the argument here, Danny, that is being made by the defense team for Sean Combs. I was taken aback coming out of Chloe's piece there when it was described as a great love story based on that video we were just watching seconds beforehand. Is it a compelling case? You file this very closely to the jury, which is what you're seeing in the video. That's domestic violence. He was a bad guy in certain moments, but we're talking about a sex trafficking ring and he was not doing that.

[H]

Yeah, this was always going to be the defense's theme because they really had no other choice. Things like that hotel video, you can't get around that. So the theme was always going to be some version of, look, we own the fact that Sean Combs may have committed domestic violence, that he may have committed assault, but he's not seated here charged with those crimes. Those are crimes that belong in state court. The crimes he's charged with are very specific federal crimes. He's not a racketeer. He may be an abuser. He's not a racketeer, he's not a sex trafficker. Those are very specific federal crimes. And this is an overblown case. That's essentially their argument. It was always going to be their argument because they really didn't have a lot of other avenues.

[Willie Geist]

So, Danny, if you're the defense attorney for Sean Combs this morning, jury's deliberating. Given the way the testimony has gone, given the way the trial has gone to this point, how are you feeling right now about your chances?

[H]

Well, defense attorneys of this caliber are always feeling confident. They have to be to get to their level. But the reality is federal court is not a pleasant place for Attorneys like me to be, the conviction rate is well into the mid 90 percentile.

[Michael Schnell]

So.

[H]

So the odds are that the jury will convict. And here's the thing, they may be in that jury room saying, look, this doesn't feel like it should have been a federal case. We agree with defense counsel that this was really about domestic violence. But the problem is this. The jury instructions will tell them that the elements are the elements of the crime. And the government has really put in at least enough evidence, if believed, to find Combs guilty. The real issue is, was this evidence credible? Did they believe these witnesses who at times ranged from credible to maybe not so credible? That's the key, credibility.

[Willie Geist]

And we'll see how quickly that jury comes back deliberating again this morning. Danny, I want to ask you about another case. Brian Kohberger, the man accused of fatally stabbing four college students at the University of Idaho, appears ready to accept a deal to plead guilty to those killings. One victim's family and their attorney said they learned about the apparent deal in a letter from prosecutors and adding they gave the possibility of a plea. A quote, hard no, that's from the family. According to the Idaho Statesman, the letter said the plea deal will ensure Kohberger's conviction and secure life in prison for him. It would not spare him the death penalty. NBC News. It would. Excuse me. It would spare him the death penalty. NBC News has not verified the letter's contents. Kohberger was charged with four counts of first degree murder and burglary for the 2022 killings of four University of Idaho students at an off campus home. His trial was scheduled to begin next month. So to be clear, from what we know about this, Danny, this deal, he would accept responsibility for those murders, go to prison for life, that it would just take the death penalty off the table. What do you make of what we've heard so far?

[H]

Yeah, I understand the family's frustration. In modern times, legislatures have added more protections for victim and their families. But ultimately that right is usually just to be heard. And to be heard isn't the same as being obeyed. And the family, unfortunately, is finding this out. Prosecutors will tell you that victims are not their clients. Victims are not parties to a criminal case. They are mostly witnesses. The final decision is up to the prosecutors as to whether to offer a plea, whether to accept a plea, and whether to enter into any plea agreement. So victims families are often very disappointed to find that their wishes may not be obeyed. So the right to be heard is a good trend, but it's often pretty hollow when you're the families like this and you really wanted to push for the death penalty. But the state had to make a choice, not necessarily in the interests of the victims, but in justice as a whole and the people of the state of Idaho as a whole.

[Willie Geist]

And one of the victim's family saying, quote, we are beyond furious at the state of Idaho. They have failed us. NBC News MSNBC legal analyst Danny Son. Danny, thanks as always. Coming up, we will show you the daring water rescue of a man and a child who went overboard during a Disney cruise returning from the Bahamas on Sunday. A father leaping into the ocean to save his daughter. I'll tell you what happened when MORNING JOE comes right back. Live picture from the top of our building at 6:48 in the morning on this Tuesday, July 1st. It's July. Everybody want to turn now to the latest out of Coeur d' Alene, Idaho, where a suspect now has been identified in the deadly ambush on firefighters as they responded to a brush fire on Sunday. Authorities say a 20 year old named Wes Valroli is suspected of intentionally setting the fire to then ambush firefighters as they arrived on the scene. He killed two of them, wounded a third. Rowley's body was found next to a firearm in the area of that fire. Some members of the suspect's family were stunned by the shooting, saying Roly had dreams of becoming a firefighter himself. In fact, his grandfather told NBC News, quote, something must have snapped. Maybe he got rejected or something. Firefighter Dave Tisdale was injured in the attack and is recovering after surgery. The fallen firefighters were identified as Kootenai County Fire and Rescue Chief Frank Harwood and Coeur d' Alene Fire Department Battalion Chief John Morrison. A colleague shared his final memory about Morrison during a press conference yesterday.

[Michael Schnell]

We talked about being better fathers. We talked about being better leaders. We talked about being better firefighters. I just want to say I am so incredibly grateful that the but that gets to be my last memory with him. So if there's anything you guys take away from this, I want you to know these were dedicated men and they were dedicated to this community.

[Willie Geist]

John Morrison and Frank Harwood. No manifesto was found for the shooter. Officials have yet to uncover a motive. The suspect had no known criminal history. A father and his five year old daughter were rescued after going overboard during a Disney cruise cruise on Sunday with the dad jumping in after his little girl. NBC News correspondent George Solis has details of the daring rescue.

[I]

This dramatic video shows rescue boats racing towards a man and child desperately treading water in the middle of the ocean after passengers say the child fell overboard from the Disney Dream cruise ship and the man jumped in to save her.

[John Fetterman]

You could see all the staff running to the port, port side. They got their life jackets and rings and everybody was looking in the water.

[I]

The cruise ship making a U turn. According to stunned passengers who watched from aboard.

[Michael Schnell]

It was horrific.

[I]

Applause and cheers erupting when crew members hoisted the pair to safety and brought them back to the ship.

[Danny Savalos]

Everyone cheered. It was a good moment.

[I]

It happened Sunday as the ship was sailing from the Bahamas back to Fort Lauderdale. Passengers say the fall occurred somewhere along the fourth four deck, just below the yellow boats you see here. Passengers say they also heard loudspots speaker warnings of Mr. Mob emergency code for man overboard. It's unclear how the child ended up in the water.

[Sam Stein]

It was so scary.

[Michael Schnell]

Like it was like how did she fall?

[I]

In a statement to NBC News Disney Cruise Line confirming the rescue of two of their guests saying we commend our crew members for the exceptional skills and prompt actions which ensure the safe return of both guests within minutes.

[Danny Savalos]

The response was just amazing.

[Willie Geist]

Amazing.

[I]

More than 30 million people go on cruises every year. During a 10 year period, 212 people went overboard from cruise ships worldwide. Just 48 were rescued. By law, cruise ships must have rails that are 42 inches or higher.

[Willie Geist]

I'm just glad they're safe.

[I]

The child and rescuers conditions are unknown but those on board calling it nothing short of a miracle.

[Danny Savalos]

Such a sigh of relief.

[Willie Geist]

I mean it's a parent's biggest nightmare. So glad dad and daughter are okay and incredible work. They were only in the water for a few minutes because of that Disney cruise rescue effort. George Solis reporting for us there. Coming up here we'll go live back to Capitol Hill for the latest from the Senate's so called vote a rama on the President's sweeping domestic policy bill. Now nearing 24 hours of debate on the floor. Will Republicans have the votes in the Senate to pass this massive piece of legislation? Morning Joe's coming right back.

[Ali Vitali]

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[Danny Savalos]

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