Trump's Gaza peace plan wins global support as world awaits Hamas response

Summary

Morning Joe – September 30, 2025

Episode: “Trump’s Gaza peace plan wins global support as world awaits Hamas response”

Hosts: Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, Willie Geist
Key Guests: Mike Barnacle, Katie Kaye (BBC), David Ignatius (Washington Post), David French (NYT), Ali Vitali (MSNBC Capitol Hill Correspondent)

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Overview

This episode delves into two of the day’s most urgent stories:

1. President Trump’s new 20-point Gaza peace plan — its global backing, details, and the challenges ahead, especially pending a response from Hamas.
2. The looming U.S. government shutdown — partisan blame, health care stakes, and the political gamesmanship surrounding Capitol Hill negotiations.

The panel offers breakneck, candid analysis with frequent humor and deep insights into U.S. politics and global affairs.

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1. Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan: Details, Global Reactions, and Hamas' Crossroads

[04:03–09:05] Main Discussion

Plan Overview:

• Unveiled by Trump after meeting Netanyahu; sets a framework for a phased Israeli withdrawal, immediate ceasefire, and return of all hostages within 72 hours.
• Hamas members laying down arms get amnesty/safe passage.
• Trump and Tony Blair co-chair a “Board of Peace” to coordinate Gaza’s transition, with an international stabilization force (Italy, Indonesia, Azerbaijan among contributors).
• New Palestinian technocrats and transitional reforms for the PA (Palestinian Authority) included.

Notable Insights:

• David Ignatius ([06:06]):

  “This is basically a surrender deal. … What I found striking ... this is a detailed plan at last for the day after the war ends. It's finally here on paper, and it's a fairly well fashioned plan.”

• He notes significant international buy-in, including Arab nations and Israel, but Israel is not committing to a full withdrawal—there will be a “buffer zone."

Hostage and Amnesty Details:

• Katie Kaye ([11:08]):

  “250 Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli prisons are to be released. That number doesn't seem to have been taken from random ... Have there been back channel negotiations around this that actually have got some kind of sign off preemptively from Hamas?”

Critical Caveats and Challenges:

• The plan’s challenge rests with Hamas and their willingness to accept terms many would see as surrender.
• Questions about U.S. and Israeli policy—what “full backing” in case of Hamas rejection actually entails, and whether this means permanent occupation.

Polling on Israel in the U.S.:

• The discussion pivots to collapsing U.S. support for Israel, especially among young Americans.
  • Mike Barnacle ([13:58]): 51% of Americans now opposed to more military/economic support for Israel;
  • Joe Scarborough ([14:30]): “Look at that. That's a majority of people oppose, oppose military or economic support to Israel. That has never happened in my lifetime.”

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2. The Domestic Political Context: Why Now, Why This Plan?

[15:38–19:18]

Willie Geist:

• Notes that support for Israel among Americans and even young evangelicals is at record lows, a critical factor pushing toward urgent peace initiatives.

David French ([16:20]):

“It's way past time to have that 'day after' plan out there ... The carrot here for Hamas is: You can simply — you get to live, you get to go somewhere else. … Do they care enough about their own lives here, or is this truly ... a death cult? And we're about to find out.”

David French ([19:18]):

"If you're Israel ... one part of your eye has to be on your biggest patron, your biggest supporter, the one that is going to help sustain the existence of your country for the indefinite future. … That's an urgent issue."

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3. Congressional Drama: The Looming Government Shutdown

[23:12–36:47]

State of Play:

• The U.S. government is hours from a shutdown.
• Trump and Congressional leaders failed to reach a last-minute compromise; ACA (Affordable Care Act) subsidies and health care are flashpoint issues.

Key Points:

• Ali Vitali ([24:41], [31:46]): Dems refuse a Republican spending bill that, in their view, would gut health care.

  “There's actually a deeper irony here because one of the things that Democrats have laid out that they want is shoring up ACA subsidies ... If they were to deal with this, that would actually help Republicans AND Democrats alike in the upcoming midterms.”

• David French ([35:22]):

  “I think there’s a weariness, a resignation here … the sensation is ‘here we go again’… Many Republicans are not quite grasping how much their coalition is changing. Medicaid cuts were impacting a lot of this new more working class Republican coalition…”

Political Blame & Historical Context:

• Joe Scarborough ([27:28], [29:49]): Predicts the party in power (here: Republicans) will get blamed for shutdowns, referencing historical precedents.

  “People in middle America, when they see government shutdown, they go, 'Wait a sec, we put Republicans in charge of everything, and they can’t even run a government.' … Republicans always get blamed.”

• Ali Vitali ([30:22]): “They feel like the Democrats have proven to be not up to the challenge so far … There's been inadequate opposition and they feel like they can bully them into what they want...”

• Ali Vitali ([33:41]): Speaker Johnson’s keeping House Republicans away from Washington to avoid tough votes, particularly on health care in Biden-won districts.

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4. The DOJ, Rule of Law, and Trump’s “Retribution” Agenda

[39:30–45:12]

David French ([40:45]):
Reads from his NYT opinion column, warning about unprecedented politicization of justice:

“The Department of Justice is prosecuting a former director of the FBI, and it’s doing so not because there is clear evidence of a crime, but because there is clear evidence that the President wants revenge. … Trump’s attack on American justice has taken its next and most ominous turn.”

Joe Scarborough ([42:18]):

“If a document had been leaked that Donald Trump was ordering legal hits on his political enemies, that again, in any other administration would have led to impeachment for a Republican or a Democrat.”

Legal Weakness:

• David French: Notes the indictment against former FBI Director James Comey is vague and lacks substance, likely to be dismissed unless real evidence emerges, echoing even conservative legal voices (Andy McCarthy, WSJ, National Review).

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5. Unprecedented Meeting of Military Generals

[45:12–48:38]

• Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth summons hundreds of generals/admirals worldwide for an “extraordinary” meeting at Quantico.

• David Ignatius ([45:54]):

  "There's a lot of trepidation about this meeting ... there ought to be a big difference between swearing an oath to the Constitution and swearing in effect, an oath to the sitting president. But ... that may be blurred here."

• Ali Vitali ([47:50]):

  “Many generals have said ... the extraordinary ... security risk that this meeting does present, that 800 of our top officers and the commander in chief and secretary of defense all in one place at one time. … It’s simply not worth the risk to have a pep talk.”

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6. Media, “Troller in Chief,” and Partisan Blame Games

[49:17–57:30]

• Extended lampooning of Vice President J.D. Vance for embracing a trolling style and spreading false blame regarding political violence and media controversies (Jimmy Kimmel/FCC).

• Joe Scarborough ([53:53]):

  "One thing [Vance] did get right, he said it's predominantly on one side ... Cato again, the Koch brothers. Cato said it's predominantly right wing. CSIS predominantly right wing. Every study has shown that this century ... it's just not even a close call."

• Ali Vitali ([56:14]):

  “The rush, whether it’s the FBI director or the vice president, to color the narrative about a shooting by … flooding the zone with information, false or not ... when it looks like the suspect might be, quote, 'left wing', but ... nothing at all from the White House [when the suspect is right wing].”

Commentary:

• The hosts and guests underscore a grim new low in political discourse: a rush to blame, a lack of investigative patience, and an embrace of social media "trolling" in the highest offices.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• David Ignatius on the Gaza plan ([06:06]):

  "If this goes through, it is a foundation for the broader Arab Israeli peace that the whole world would like to see."

• Joe Scarborough’s summary of U.S. polling shift ([14:30]):

  “Look at that. That’s a majority of people opposed to military or economic support to Israel. That has never happened in my lifetime.”

• David French on Republican coalition ([35:22]):

  “Medicaid cuts were impacting a lot of this new more working class Republican coalition … How much will increased health care costs impact this new coalition?”

• David French on Trump DOJ ([40:45]):

  “Trump’s attack on American justice has taken its next and most ominous turn.”

• Willie Geist on J.D. Vance and trolling ([53:22]):

  “…the lesson J.D. Vance learned was to be combative, to be a troller, to … immediately even as the vice president … go to that place of division … rushing to assign blame … and often he’s wrong about it.”

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Structure & Flow (Timestamps)

• [04:03–19:18]: Gaza plan deep dive, Israel/US politics, polling.
• [23:12–36:47]: Shutdown drama, health care stakes, power tactics.
• [39:30–45:12]: DOJ, Comey indictment, rule of law under Trump.
• [45:12–48:38]: Military generals’ meeting; fears of politicization.
• [49:17–57:30]: V.P. Vance’s trolling; political blame after shootings and media controversies.

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Conclusion

This episode offers unusually detailed analysis of Trump’s Gaza plan, places it within a fraught and shifting American political context, and highlights the growing disconnect between U.S. and Israeli interests. Simultaneously, a second running story — the threat of a government shutdown — gets the Morning Joe treatment: punchy historical parallels, skepticism about both parties, and sharp attention to shifts in voter coalitions and public opinion.
The hosts and guests sound the alarm on rising authoritarian tendencies, politicization of justice and the military, and the collapse of stable, fact-centered discourse in American political life.

Transcript

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[Willie Geist]

At that point, all Americans will be.

[Joe Scarborough]

Invited to visit Spirit Halloween at the Capitol. The nation's largest spirit Halloween featuring costumes like Jack o' Lantern, businessman, adult Harry Potter, your aunt Phyllis and a life sized lovaboo. See you there. Everyone's invited. Chuck Schumer. Your aunt's Phyllis.

[Mike Barnacle]

Okay.

[Joe Scarborough]

Wow.

[Mike Barnacle]

The Ni Cho's take on the looming government shut down. We'll bring you the latest on where things stand.

[Joe Scarborough]

Wait, hold on, hold on.

[Mike Barnacle]

What?

[Joe Scarborough]

Come on.

[Mike Barnacle]

I have a lot to do here.

[Joe Scarborough]

Come on. Well, we have a lot to do. This is rivalry week. As the kids know, Willie Geist and I. Rivalry week first Willie with the big one tonight.

[Willie Geist]

Tonight.

[Joe Scarborough]

And I love the subtlety of the daily news. Oh, yeah, I'll just have Boston, the New York Times. I mean the New York Post. Rivalry renewal. What do they got on the back?

[Willie Geist]

We got on the back of the post. Rise up. Called the all rise Aaron Judge call. So Yankees, Red Sox, three game series wild card starts tonight in the Bronx. Three games to remind people all in New York they play like a regular season series. So best two out of three. We've got our best pitcher going. You've got your best pitcher going. Arguably two of the very best in baseball.

[Joe Scarborough]

Going to be amazing.

[Willie Geist]

It's going to be fun. It's going to be wild in the Broncos.

[Joe Scarborough]

And then rivalry week continues even after the wild card game. All the kids know at home right now and that is Saturday.

[Willie Geist]

Tuscaloosa, Teatown College game day is going down.

[Joe Scarborough]

Are they really?

[Willie Geist]

Game day is going to be in Tuscaloosa. Coming off Alabama's huge win in Athens over Georgia Saturday night, The Vanderbilt Commodores 5 0. The 50 Commodores led by Clark Lee, our coach and our quarterback, Diego Pavia. Alabama looking to avenge that massive upset of Vanderbilt over Alabama one year ago.

[Joe Scarborough]

You got a great coach.

[Willie Geist]

He's great.

[Joe Scarborough]

And I didn't stay up last night, but I can report without knowing what the score is, that the jets probably lost. Right? Yeah.

[Willie Geist]

I actually didn't even have to turn on the game to know that. I will confirm that they lost. They fall to 04. Dolphins beat them. The other game was terrible. You didn't miss anything.

[Joe Scarborough]

But. But I've got to say, the worst use of time. The worst team in New York, still the Mets. Oh, come on. Still the Mets. You know, they're investing and I, you know, Cohen, you're glad he's investing. But I'll tell you one thing we're learning up in Boston. A good farm system cures a thousand ills.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, that's. They spend all the money you could possibly spend. They got an owner who opened the checkbook. They got the best free agent on the market, paid him almost $1 billion and did not make the playoffs.

[Joe Scarborough]

There you go.

[Mike Barnacle]

Okay. Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have us special correspondent for BBC News and the host of the Rest is Politics podcast, Katie K. And Katie wants.

[Joe Scarborough]

To talk about the wild car. Big baseball fan, I can tell.

[Mike Barnacle]

I mean, she could, but she's. Yeah. Columnist and associate editor for the Washington Post, David Ignatius is with us and New York Times opinion columnist David French joins us. A lot to get to in the news. President Trump has unveiled a new 20 point peace plan for Gaza after his White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The proposal calls for an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages within 72 hours and a phased Israeli withdrawal. Hamas members who lay down their arms would be granted amnesty or safe passage. A new board of peace, led by Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, would oversee Gaza's transition, backed by an international force to provide security. Trump says most parties have agreed but warned that if Hamas rejects the deal, Israel would have fallen full US Support to continue its military campaign.

[Joe Scarborough]

But I hope that we're going to have a deal for peace. And if Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, they're the Only one left. Everyone else has accepted it, but I have a feeling that we're going to have a positive answer. But if not, as you know, Bibi, you'd have more full backing to do what you would have to do. Everyone understands that the ultimate result must be the elimination of any danger posed in the region, and that danger is caused by Hamas. So, David, this isn't really so much of a negotiation as a surrender by Hamas. And if you're Hamas and can get out alive, well, that may not be such a bad deal at this point of the war either. Tell me your thoughts on this deal. Your thoughts on European and Arab countries lining up behind it saying that Hamas should say yes.

[David Ignatius]

So, Joe, first, this is basically a surrender deal. I watched one of those go down in Beirut after the 1982 Israeli invasion. And Yasser Arafat, then the head of the plo, was told, get out of Beirut and you can have amnesty. And he did. And he went on to fight other battles, but from an exile location that may happen here. I think the pressure on Hamas from Palestinians to accept the deal and see an end of this war is going to be considerable. What I found striking about the presentation yesterday by President Trump was that this is a detailed plan at last for the day after the war ends. For more than a year, we've been talking here on the show about the absence, absence of day after planning, of planning for a transition when the guns finally fall silent. It's finally here on paper and it's a fairly well fashioned plan. There's a Board of Peace, a kind of showy sounding body that will be headed by President Trump, but will probably really be run by Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister. But under that, there'll be a group of Palestinian technocrats. I'm told that the names of most of those people have already been selected and vetted. There'll be an international stable mobilization force to help create a new Palestinian police that can create security so people aren't killing themselves chasing after food. And the countries that will be involved in that have also already been selected. Italy, Indonesia, Azerbaijan are among the countries that will be involved. There's a transitional process to reform the Palestinian Authority, which has responsibility for the west bank, but doesn't exercise it very much or very well. And it's hard to know how that will work out. But in theory, if the PA reforms, it will move into the process of governance in Gaza eventually. A final point about this is that when you read the fine text, you can see that Israel is not committing to fully withdraw militarily from Gaza for any foreseeable future. There will be a buffer zone around Gaza that will have Israeli military forces that can go back in when they feel it's necessary. But finally, Trump's ability to get everybody except Hamas on the same page. Israel, all the key Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, the uae, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, together supporting this plan and to back off his earlier demand that all Palestinians have to leave Gaza. That's a significant move. And you know, as I wrote this morning, if this, if this goes through, it is a foundation for the broader Arab Israeli peace that the whole world would like to see.

[Joe Scarborough]

And just for domestic audiences here in America, you know, Willie, obviously Donald Trump is a divisive figure. He's, he's probably, you know, depending on where you, what poll you read, he's got a proof rating anywhere from 39% to 45, maybe 46%, but very divisive. The one thing that I think it's important for people that are watching this and saying, well, what Donald Trump, the head of any board or whatever just understand is. And David, David's reporting is the same. I'm sure Kadi's is the same. Arab leaders like dealing with Donald Trump. They say he understands us, we understand him, and they're ready for this to come to an end. So if somebody is out there sitting, going, oh, wait, this guy is saying, you know, I alone can bring peace to the region. Usually when he says I alone just cut it off, don't listen. Because what he's going to say after that is probably not going to be completely accurate in this case, other than Hamas, he is the one person that the Arab countries are willing to get behind and do things with.

[Willie Geist]

And his son in law, Jared Kushner, who has been involved in these negotiations as well. They trust him and have a great relationship with Jared as well. Yes, they do. At the center of this Katty K. You look at the conditions listed in this 20 point plan. It's got a lot, as someone told me last night, a lot to like in there. It depends on Hamas now, which has not obviously been a rational actor in negotiations. They're a terrorist group agreeing to it. They say they want a ceasefire. They say they want Israeli troops to withdraw in exchange for hostages. Well, here it is, albeit a phased withdrawal, as David said, of Israeli troops. Is there any expectation from this collection of nations, this collection of bodies have gotten behind this, that Hamas actually will sit at the table this time and listen?

[Katie K.]

And there's a couple of things, Willie. There's some Specifics on the number of Palestinians who are serving life sentences in Israeli prisons who are to be released, 250. That number doesn't seem to have been taken from random. So that makes you think, have there been, you know, back channel negotiations around this that actually have got some kind of sign off preemptively from Hamas? The fact that, that Hamas leaders could be allowed to leave could also give some of them pause for thinking that this is worth doing. But there are still questions about this deal, right? The main one is what does the President mean and what does Netanyahu mean when they say that if Hamas does not sign on to this, then Israel can do what it needs to do, do the maximum go as far as it needs to go with American backing for that position. And it's not clear exactly what that would mean in the long run for Israel. For some, does that inevitably lead to some kind of permanent occupation of the Gaza Strip? And how would Israel carry it out? I think the timing of this is so interesting in the context of the polls that are coming out showing how much support Israel as a country and the Israeli government is losing amongst Americans, particularly amongst young Americans. There is very little patience now for Israel in this country, which is why this kind of a deal needs to be done sooner rather than later for Bibi Netanyahu in order to, to have American support. Because it's cratering, particularly. It was actually declining before the attacks of October the seventh, but since October the seventh and the new polling this week shows that it really has cratered, particularly amongst young Americans.

[Joe Scarborough]

And let me say this slowly for people that, that didn't hear it the first hundred times I said this. Benjamin Netanyahu and his insistence on continuing this war after his military leaders and his intel leaders said there was no need to continue this war, along with the horrific scenes that we have seen coming out of Gaza, coming out of the area post October 7th is two years after that has really driven a wedge in support for Israel in America. Now listen, as a lifetime supporter of Israel, I understand most of the world's always seem to be lined up against Israel, especially in the United Nations. But people who support Israel's long term health and viability need to pay closer attention to these polls because the polls that Caddy just mentioned, Mika, they're extraordinarily bad for Israel. And that does matter. It matters for support because Israel gets most of its support from the United States.

[Mike Barnacle]

They're from the New York Times and Siena College and they were conducted last week and released yesterday, which show American Attitudes toward Israel's war in Gaza have changed drastically since it began nearly two years ago. Just over 1300 registered voters were polled between Monday and Saturday of last week. The margin of error is 3.2%. 51% said they are either strongly or somewhat opposed to the United States providing additional economic and military support to Israel.

[Joe Scarborough]

Now I mean, look at that. That's a majority of people oppose, oppose military or economic support to Israel. That has never happened in my lifetime.

[Mike Barnacle]

58% said Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if not all Israeli hostages have been released. Even more said Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if Hamas has not been fully eliminated.

[Joe Scarborough]

That's 59% to 27%.

[Mike Barnacle]

And 62% said Israel is not taking enough precautions to avoid civilian.

[Joe Scarborough]

And on top of that, Willie, more people than not believe Israel is intentionally targeting civilians. The numbers I read them and I knew, and we had all heard that Israeli support in the United States was slipping. But I was even shocked by just how bad the Netanyahu government support has fallen. And with Netanyahu, Israel and among young.

[Willie Geist]

Voters in the United States especially 70%, 70% of young American voters say we should stop giving military aid to Israel. David Ignatius also we should just point out as a contrast where it was two years ago in the aftermath of those attacks. It was 47% of Americans supporting Israel, only 20% supporting Palestinians. That now has flipped. And those two numbers are equal at this point. So with all that data in mind, David French, actually let me go to you. What do you think drove this moment, this 20 point plan? Was it sort of an urgency to see that support slipping here in America?

[David French]

Well, you know, I think it's a couple things. One is it's way past time to have that day after plan out there, to have a day after plan backed by multinational agreement. This should have been done a long time ago. The second thing though is look at the bottom line is Hamas is got a decision point. We know Hamas does not care for Palestinian lives. We know that Hamas uses the deaths of innocent Palestinians to advance its own cause. We're about to find out if Hamas cares about its own lives at all. And so the key, the carrot here for Hamas is you can simply you get to live, you get to go somewhere else. And that calling back to the earlier resolution with the PLO in the 1980s, I think is the right kind of comparison. So do they care enough about their own lives here or is this truly fully and Completely a death cult. And we're about to find out. And I do think the other thing that's important about this is when you have international agreement and Hamas is the sole party that says no, that is, at least in the short to medium term, going to grant Israel a new permission structure. But it's against the backdrop, a short term to medium term maybe permission structure for Israel to continue the military campaign against the backdrop of a long term threat to Israel's national security if American support for Israel is undermined for the, you know, for the foreseeable future. That's something that Israel has to think about because Israel is a very powerful country for its size, but it will never be an independent military power in the way that we are. And they do need us, they do need our support. So those numbers are ominous from a long term perspective and Israel should be working urgently to reverse them.

[Joe Scarborough]

David, I often talk about our common background as evangelicals growing up in the south and supporters of Israel. I mean, it's just a given, and it was just a given that most Americans instinctively supported Israel. Looking at these numbers, it's just absolutely staggering. This is something that again, over the course of five decades of my life following this, I've never seen Israel's support drop to a low point. Would you have ever imagined we would get to a point that, and I know it's just the accumulation of the bombing and the images coming out of Gaza and the war continuing a year after Netanyahu is told by his generals and his intel officers, hey, there are no more war aims to achieve. We need to stop this. Could you have ever imagined a majority of Americans, and as Willie underlined, especially young Americans opposing any military or economic aid to Israel, unimaginable what the last two years have done for Israel standing here in America?

[David French]

Well, you know the thing, you hit the nail on the head, Joe, when you talked about younger people. This is something that you're seeing divisions on the right amongst younger people as well as the left. And that's the new thing. So to see, you know, we've always seen some degree of partisan split on Israel in recent history. Republicans have been generally more supportive, though both sides have been very supportive of Israel overall. But you did see that emerging partisan split. But the thing is, if you're looking, again, if you're Israel and liberty, looking down the road actually amongst younger voters, including younger evangelicals, I have seen much more division about Israel, even within the right, even within the Republican Party. And so this is something, if you're Israel, if you're Israeli military planners. One part of your eye has to be on your biggest patron, your biggest supporter, the one that is going to help sustain the existence of your country for the indefinite future. That's where part of your focus has to be. So I do think part of this deal is to say, look, Israel isn't as isolated as you think. Look, there are America's with them. You have Tony Blair coming in potentially to assist. You've got multinational support for a particular plan. And if Hamas rejects it, like I said, it gives Israel that little extra freedom of action perhaps. But it still has to look at the long term. What can it do to address that declining American popular support? That's an urgent issue.

[Mike Barnacle]

All right. A lot still to get to. Still ahead on MORNING joe, we're going to look at whether a compromise is possible today to avoid a government shutdown. Also ahead, new details on two Marine veterans, each accused of carrying out separate mass shootings in Michigan and North Carolina. And we'll preview the unusual meeting today of hundreds of military generals called by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with very few details and a reminder that the Morning Joe podcast is available each weekday featuring our full conversations and analysis. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. You're watching MORNING joe. We'll be right back.

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[Mike Barnacle]

22 past the hour. Take a look at the Capitol. The sun has yet to come up over Washington. So much at stake there right now.

[Joe Scarborough]

So much at stake at Yankee Stadium tonight as well. We've got people around the table.

[Mike Barnacle]

Joining us now, the co host of our fourth hour, Stephen writer at the Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, very nervous. MSNBC contributor.

[Joe Scarborough]

We have a monitor on him.

[Mike Barnacle]

It's like they had at the writers on the 558.

[Joe Scarborough]

No, I don't want to see that. We didn't get a chance to talk about the writer.

[Mike Barnacle]

Mike. Everyone's going to talk about.

[Joe Scarborough]

What does that mean? What do you mean? Mike Barnacle.

[Mike Barnacle]

It's Mike Barnacle week on the 558. On my Instagram, she has her why we love Mike.

[Joe Scarborough]

Why Mike?

[Mike Barnacle]

Mike's already talked about himself, if you can believe it. Okay.

[Ali Vitali]

The host of he's more of a TikTok guy.

[Mike Barnacle]

Yeah, Mike's on TikTok.

[Joe Scarborough]

Snap dancing.

[Mike Barnacle]

Okay. The host of Way Too Early MSNBC senior Capitol Hill correspondent Ali Batali joins us as well. So the United States government will shut down when the clock ticks from midnight to 12:01am overnight tonight unless President Trump and leaders on Capitol Hill can reach an 11th hour agreement. Trump and the top four leaders in Congress met privately yesterday but failed to reach a compromise. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer say they reiterated their focus on advancing health care policy goals.

[Ali Vitali]

Democrats are fighting to protect the healthcare.

[Willie Geist]

Of the American people and we are not going to support a partisan Republican.

[Joe Scarborough]

Spending bill that continues to gut the.

[Ali Vitali]

Healthcare of everyday Americans. And when we talked to him about the other issues, he was not aware that Americans would pay so many Americans, tens of millions of Americans would pay huge increases in their health care, in their health care bills because of the ACA expiring in December. And he was not aware that the real effect of that starts October 1st, not December 31st. So it seemed from his body language and some of the things he said that he was not aware of the ramifications of the treatise, you know, bad, bad implications on health care for Americans.

[Mike Barnacle]

Republican lawmakers, meanwhile, are blaming Democrats with Vice President J.D. vance predicting a shutdown.

[David French]

This is purely and simply hostage taking on behalf of the Democrats. The Republicans are united. House Republicans, Senate Republicans, President Trump. The House has passed a clean funding resolution to fund the government till November 21. It's clean, it is bipartisan, and it is short term, but it gives us enough time to finish the appropriations process, which is the way we should be funding the government.

[Willie Geist]

We have disagreements about tax policy, but you don't shut the government down. We have disagreements about health care policy, but you don't shut the government down. You don't use your policy disagreements as leverage to not pay our troops, to not have essential services of government actually function. You don't say the fact that you disagree about a particular tax provision is an excuse for shutting down the people's government and all the essential services that come along with it.

[Joe Scarborough]

So I'm easily confused, as everybody knows, but I'm confused. I mean, he was the guy who said that Donald Trump might be America's Hitler, and then he changed. He was a guy that said, God expects more from us than to vote for Donald Trump. JD did, and then he changed. And Mika, didn't he say, like, not so long ago that this is exactly when you use your leverage to try to get the other party to change when the other party's in the white. Didn't he say, I don't know. Am I dreaming? Is this like. Is this like a dream from Dallas where it's the next season? I don't know.

[Mike Barnacle]

Yeah, you could be. We could take a look.

[Joe Scarborough]

Okay, let's do that.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, man. Why shouldn't we be trying to force this government shutdown, fight to get something out of it that's good for the American people?

[David Ignatius]

Like, why have a government if it's not a functioning government?

[Joe Scarborough]

What a shock. What a shock.

[Willie Geist]

A year ago.

[Joe Scarborough]

That's just it. Oh, I thought that might be a decade ago. 30 years.

[Mike Barnacle]

It's like a young J.D. oh, wait, he is pretty young.

[Joe Scarborough]

That was just last year. That was last year, huh? Well, it's very interesting. You know, you never know what's going to happen here. You really don't. Donald. Donald Trump can decide what he wants to decide. I will say, actually going through a government shutdown, you know, everybody on the floor would all gather. Well, you know, people will understand that Bill Clinton and would sit there and finally, like, it occurred to me, I go, dude, nobody's paying attention to this. When the government shut down, they're going to blame Republicans. They always blame. And sure enough, the government was shut down. Bill Clinton broke us politically, got reelected. It worked in his favor. When there was a shutdown, I guess, what, 2011, same thing happened. They didn't blame Barack Obama. Even though Republicans were like, I blame Barack Obama. They never did. They don't do that. I know John, I've known John Thune for a long time. Love John Thune. People like working like in middle America aren't going well. You know, they, they passed a clean cr. It's clean nobody. What the fan goes, what, what is that?

[Mike Barnacle]

Is that who they talk?

[Joe Scarborough]

Connie Reeves, what does CR stand for? So that's the problem is Republicans own the White House. Republicans own the Senate, Republicans own the House.

[Mike Barnacle]

They have a lot of power.

[Joe Scarborough]

Republicans own the Supreme Court. People in middle America, when they see government shutdown, they go, wait a sec, we put Republicans charged of everything and they can't even run a government. I'm not, this is not wishcasting. This is like 30 years of experience. Republicans always get blamed for government shutdowns, especially when you have the monopoly of power in Washington, D.C. yeah, the nation.

[Ali Vitali]

Is not gripped by clean CR talk. They, and there is a short term memory here issue for the Republicans and this White House. There were actually three government shutdowns during Trump's first term. Two of them are very brief, but one extended 30 odd days. The longest we ever had. All three, particularly the long one. Trump took the hit. His poll numbers fell. He did. But they've convinced themselves that they can win the messaging on this one. And we see them, they're talking about.

[Joe Scarborough]

Do you think they're doing that because Democrats were so weak last time and folded so quickly?

[Ali Vitali]

I think there is a sense of that, yes. They feel like there's a swagger coming from this White House. They feel like the Democrats have proven to be not up to the challenge so far this year. There's been inadequate opposition and they feel like they can bully them into what they want and they can use the same talking points they used during last year's election on immigration. Trying to claim it's illegal is getting health illegal, migrants getting health care. We're seeing some transgender talk again. And last night, the president, after this meeting yielded nothing with Schumer and Jeffries. The president put on social media a deep, fake, highly offensive video with racist discussions and fake language from Schumer and Jefferies. That clearly is nothing you do if you're trying to reach across the aisle to get an 11th hour deal. So they're, they're really, they're, they're dug in here. Probably not. They're going to win the messaging here around the shutdown. And barring something unforeseen, we're going that way.

[Willie Geist]

Yeah, it showed that that negotiation was charade for the White House. They walked outside and tweeted or truth socialed an AI video that had Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer outside of the portico there.

[Ali Vitali]

All fake.

[Willie Geist]

And it was all fake. Everything. They were. So, Ali, you've been following this closely for a long time. A lot of people have seen this slow motion train coming for months that we were hurtling toward this shutdown. But to cut through what we heard, the partisan stuff from both sides there, what is this shutdown really about? What are they fighting over?

[Planned Parenthood Spokesperson]

What they're essentially fighting over is A, just basic keeping the government open, but B, Democrats laying out this litmus test on health care. And I think there's actually a deeper irony here because one of the things that Democrats have laid out that they want is shoring up Affordable Care act subsidies that are set to expire. And once they do, people's premiums are going to spike. If they were to deal with this, that would actually help Republicans and Democrats alike in the upcoming midterm elections. And so that is sort of the open and ironic secret about this. I think what Republican sources have said to me on the Hill is that it's a question of timing and when they feel comfortable doing a negotiation on those health care subsidies. But I still remain convinced that that is the off ramp. There was also some talk yesterday among sources of that Schumer was trying to feel out his caucus on if they would agree to some kind of very short term spending agreement, five days, seven days, 10 days, just to get them over the hump and not let the government shut down while they continue to negotiate on other things. That idea was pretty much dead in the water as soon as it started. And Schumer himself was very forceful in saying, no, I wouldn't support that kind of idea. But it does only underscore the idea that we are likely heading for a government shutdown. And I think what Republicans did yesterday, there's one thing that I think helped them which is having that meeting. I think they ran the risk of after Trump canceled on Democrats last week, handing Democrats the talking point of saying, well, they won't even meet with us. But then on the other hand, Speaker Mike Johnson is keeping his Republican House members at home. They're not even in Washington right now. There's some consternation that I've heard from my sources about that strategy. Some Republicans say it would be better if we were in Washington doing what Democrats are doing, which is saying, we're here, we're ready to work. We want to keep the government open. But it does seem like Johnson by doing that, is forcing their posture that they either get on board with the clean CR that the House passed or the government shuts down, which is why the government's likely going to shut down.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, and why is Johnson keeping him away? Well, we heard first of all, he's keeping him away because he doesn't want to vote on Epstein, especially since a Democrat has now been, is waiting to be sworn in. That's number one. But number two, think about all of the Republicans that won in Joe Biden's districts that Biden also won. And think about the impact of slashing health care, like slashing, you know, whether they get it through the Affordable Care act, slashing it for Medicaid, which impacts their parents, which impacts their children, which impacts their families, impacts their health care. And that happening so Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg and other billionaires and the richest people on earth can get massive tax cuts. So of course you're going to keep people away from Washington, D.C. and swing districts because they want this compromise because I don't know, they'd rather get reelected than lose. And also think about how the Republicans have prepared the field for a government shutdown. I mean, they have for nine months now since they were, since they took office in January. They've laid off a lot of people in various agencies. They've gone after thinned out enormous numbers of people from various agencies. And David French, I'm just wondering what you think out there in the country. I mean nobody's walking around talking about CRS and everything like that today. But, but they are aware that the government is getting thinner and thinner and thinner each and every day.

[David French]

Well, I also think there's just a sense of here we go again. I mean, how many times are we going to walk through this? And I don't think voters sit there and parse, okay, this time it's different. Different. This time person X and Y are responsible for it. I think there's a weariness, a resignation here is what we're dealing with for this shutdown. And also I think that some, a couple of these, the big beautiful bill and this dispute are showing that I think many Republicans are not quite grasping how much their coalition is changing. You know, Medicaid cuts were impacting a lot of this new more working class Republican coalition subsidies in Obamacare. You have to ask how much will that, how much will increased health care costs with problems with subsidies impact this new Republican working class coalition. So there are some tweaks here, some small, minor tweaks, but I think the overall sensation is here we go again, but with one interesting difference. One interesting difference is this time you might have an administration who uses whatever legal wiggle room it can possibly find or not find just raw power and try to use the shutdown as a pretext for even more drastic cuts to government employment, more drastic changes in government agencies using the ambiguity and the chaos surrounding this to maximum effect. And I'm not sure that everyone has thought that through quite enough yet.

[Mike Barnacle]

All right, Ellie Vitale, thank you very much for staying on with us. And coming up on Morning Joe, as.

[Joe Scarborough]

Of now, TikTok is back.

[Ali Vitali]

It's great, but you don't have to go back. Little Red Book is amazing too, folks.

[Joe Scarborough]

China's Internet culture and memes are just better than America's.

[Mike Barnacle]

We're going to introduce you to this man from China who has become a sensation on social media with his spot on impression of President Trump. That is straight ahead on MORNING Joe.

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[Mike Barnacle]

I think that you have to have.

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Faith that in the end it'll all be okay.

[Mike Barnacle]

That no matter who wins a president, we will live in a democracy. The First Amendment will govern what journalists can say and do. The Constitution will protect the rights of everybody if you can agree that most people want those things. Our show is about trying to bend the arc toward that end result deadline.

[Ali Vitali]

White House with Nicole Wallace, weekdays from 4 to 6pm Eastern on MSNBC.

[Mike Barnacle]

Live. Look at Washington, D.C. at 42 past.

[Joe Scarborough]

The hour TJ on chopper four today. D.C. he's not D.C. no, he's in New York.

[Willie Geist]

Okay.

[Mike Barnacle]

I'm just in New York chopper.

[Joe Scarborough]

If we're going to get. Yeah, man, he's good. Yeah, it's a. It's pretty amazing, really.

[Planned Parenthood Spokesperson]

Re.

[Mike Barnacle]

Rack the tape and start again.

[Joe Scarborough]

It gets inverted. Yeah. Let's see.

[Mike Barnacle]

David French, your latest opinion piece for the New York Times is entitled make no Mistake About Where We Are. And in it you write, in part, this quote. There are times when I miss practicing law, because right now, there are. There are few more important posts for defending the rule of law and the integrity of the American system of justice than on James Comey's defense team. You continue. It's important to discuss the details of the case, but we cannot forget the context. The Department of Justice is prosecuting a former director of the FBI, and it's doing so not because there is clear evidence of a crime, but because there is clear evidence that the President wants revenge. Trump's retribution isn't just inflicting grave injustice on its innocent victims. It's hollowing the Justice Department. As decent people resign, they're replaced with people eager or at least willing to participate in Trump's partisan inquisition. When you put it all together, there can be no doubt Trump's attack on America, American justice, has taken its next and most ominous turn.

[Joe Scarborough]

And, David, of course, as we've been saying, you're not just hearing this from the left. You're hearing this from the Wall Street Journal editorial page. You're hearing this from the National Review, you're hearing this from Fox News, Andy McCarthy. You're hearing this from some of the most conservative legal voices out here, because this is a slam dunk. This is so easy. Whether you like Comey or not, it's like free speech. Free speech is to protect all speech, even offensive speech. Here, the rule of law is to protect those that we may not even agree with or like.

[David French]

Yeah, I think one of the things that you saw happen last week is that a lot of people on the right were waiting to see the indictment, waiting to see was there any there there that they could really circle the wagons around and defend. And I gotta say, that indictment landed like. Like a thud. It had very few details. It left people to speculate as to what was happening. And the speculation led down a couple of avenues where it appears that there's no there there. There's still no real evidence disclosed to the public. All of the evidence that we've seen in public cuts against prosecuting Comey, all of the evidence of what happened behind the scenes with the DOJ career prosecutors recommending against prosecuting Comey according to reports. Reports. And then you have Trump's public threats. I mean, this is something that, if we had received word that this had happened behind closed doors and other administrations, it would have been a grade A potentially administration ending kind of scandal. Trump just does it out.

[Joe Scarborough]

David, let's just stop and underline that. That would have been an administration ending scandal. I remember back in 93, George Stephanopoulos, and I forget who else was in the room.

[Mike Barnacle]

Room.

[Joe Scarborough]

They actually spoke to somebody in the FBI about a press release. It was a scandal for a month in Washington, D.C. here. You're exactly right. If a document had been leaked that Donald Trump was ordering legal hits on his political enemies, that again, in any other administration would have led to impeachment for a Republican or a Democrat.

[David French]

Yeah. Instead, Trump puts it on Truth Social. And the response is, oh, wow, look how transparent he is. Yes, he's transparently corrupt. He's absolutely transparent. He's transparently corrupt. And so you have this direct message, I fired the previous guy. An endorsement of the new person, completely inexperienced in this area of law, by the way, walks in, kind of sort of bumbles through the indictment. Indictment and then the indictments published. And what's there. It's vague allegations, not clearly connected to any specific incident. They're obviously trying to refer to a specific incident, but very little information.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, and as Andy McCarthy says with Fox News, the allegations contradict each other. They don't, there's not even even, there's just, even on the pleadings themselves. They don't, they don't really clearly put a charge forward. I don't, I mean, how quickly does this get dismissed?

[David French]

Well, that's a very good question. I mean, there's going to be more evidence. Maybe that emerges. Almost certainly that emerges and we'll see. It's, it's not easy to dismiss an indictment. That is not something that just happens all the time. But this one is so facially insufficient unless the, the government is coming forward with something concrete. Let's not forget this, this grand jury returned a no bill, no indictment on one of the three counts that was sought. And the other two was pretty narrow, and that's not the norm. You know, there's this old statement that a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich that is very easy to get these indictments. They obviously struggled to get these indictments here. And so it's very hard to see where there's no there there. And when there's no there there, either the judge or a jury should make quick work of this. And if I'm arguing this case, one of the first things I'm going to put up on a screen for a judge or a jury is Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social saying this is not a real prosecution, this is a political prosecution. Trump's undermining the case even as he's making it happen.

[Willie Geist]

And a reminder, the career prosecutors in that U.S. attorney's office all recommended charges not be brought after looking evidence themselves. But here it is. Some other news today, President Trump says he will attend Defense Secretary Pete Heggs unprecedented meeting with hundreds of military generals today, Trump telling NBC News on Sunday it will be a very nice meeting, talking about how the US Is doing militarily. Last week, Secretary Hegseth summoned hundreds of US Military leaders stationed around the world for today's gathering at the Quantico Marine Corps Base in Virginia. David Ignatius, what do we expect this meeting is actually about and how is it going over among military leaders around the world?

[David Ignatius]

So it's still a bit of a mystery. And that's one reason it's going over badly. The senior officers have remained confused right up to today about exactly what the purpose. But as best we can guess, first it'll be to bring everybody together to get all the generals and admirals on the same page, as it were. They'll listen to Secretary Hegseth's priorities. They may get a speech from President Trump. My fear is that the by implication, if not written oath, this is going to amount to an attempt by Hegseth and Trump to get all of our uniformed military leaders following the commander in chief path towards his national security agenda, as opposed to or in addition to the oath that they've all sworn to the Constitution. There ought to be a big difference between the two swearing an oath to the Constitution and swearing in effect, an oath to the sitting president. But I think that that may be blurred here when we think about the speeches that Trump made at West Point and at Fort Bragg. They were like campaign rally speeches. The images of soldiers and officers nodding, sometimes cheering. Very political statements by President Trump upset a lot of senior military leaders. So there's a lot of trepidation about this meeting. There's also concern that Hegseth may be pushing the military toward a quite different strategy, pulling back from traditional commitments in Europe and even in Asia to focus more on this hemisphere and even on homeland issues. As they deploy troops to Los Angeles, to Oregon. There's a concern that this is a new set of priorities for the military, that people feel abandoned commitments that matter to us and matter to our allies.

[Ali Vitali]

Yeah. Echoing David's point, first of all, there is that concern. This is more of a pledging loyalty to the president rather than the Constitution. But the defense priorities that Hegseth is expected to lay out, least in part today, we are told, will involve pulling back from Europe in quite a bit at a moment, of course, where the Ukraine war continues to rage, focusing more on the homeland, as David said. And there's been some real fault lines within the military about this. Even Chief of Staff Dan Kaine has expressed real reservations in the direction that Hegseth wants to take the Pentagon. And then lastly, we should just note the extraordinary and many generals have said this privately security risk that this meeting does present, that 800 of our top officers and the commander in chief and secretary of defense all in one place at one time. As someone put to me over the weekend, it's simply not worth the risk to have a pep talk.

[Mike Barnacle]

The Washington Post, David Ignatius, thank you very much. We'll be watching this as it's going to be happening on our watch during MORNING MORNING JOE this morning, New York Times opinion columnist David French, thank you as well. His latest piece is available to read online now. And still ahead on MORNING joe, we'll take a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning, including the end of a service that you probably didn't even know was still around. We'll tell you what it is ahead on MORNING joe.

[David French]

Celebrities are rallying to his cause, saying this is a First Amendment assault being carried out by the fcc, Brendan Carr, and by the president of the United States himself.

[Willie Geist]

And to that you said, well, there are two things.

[Joe Scarborough]

First of all, I'd like them to.

[Willie Geist]

Tell me exactly what Brendan Carr did to have Jimmy Kimmel taken off the air because, number one, he is currently on the air. And to the extent that he isn't in certain in certain stations, it's because he's not funny, because his ratings aren't very good.

[Joe Scarborough]

I have some good news for you, J Dog. We're back on all the stations.

[Planned Parenthood Spokesperson]

Every.

[Joe Scarborough]

Home, every bar, every strip club and every prison in America. You know, you've mentioned it before. It's crazy. You've got a vice president who's basically troller in chief. Yeah. And by the way, you know, we don't we hardly ever say somebody is lying, somebody is not telling the truth. So many of his statements just demand it because they are so false. You know, like his, you know, his claims a couple weeks ago. Everybody knows there's more violence on the left politically than right. It's just, it's. Everybody knows That's a lie. 75% of violence, political violence over the past 20 years has come, you know, it comes from the right. If you're talking about domestic terrorism. And that's like Cato, the Koch brothers, their studies show that, CSIS shows that. But there's one statement after another statement that's just detached from reality. And I don't know, do you think somebody told him be troller in chief. That's why we want you there. It's just. And the people he like gets into a fight with on X, on social.

[Ali Vitali]

Media or sometimes just random people or like substack authors, you know, he, we've all, you know, it's a Washington joke about the lack of responsibilities, the office of the Vice president. See, but J.D. vance clearly has a lot of time on his hands because he is. His number one job description appears to be whether doing interviews or particularly on social media, not only pushing forth, you know, false statements, but just picking false fights. And I've been told that he sees that, you know, social media obviously worked part of Donald Trump's rise. He sees that could be a similar path for him as he is jockeying with others as the. For the MAGA mantle to be Trump's heir apparent. But it is striking how, how much time Vance seems to have to, just to do exactly, to tweet. He seems to be on his phone all hours of the day.

[Joe Scarborough]

Well, and you know, in that case, here's another great example, Willie, where he says, he says, well, what did Brendan Carr do or say? He didn't do it. No, he said, we can do this the easy way, sort of hard, or we can do this the hard.

[Willie Geist]

The day Kimmel was pulled off the.

[Joe Scarborough]

Air, and he said that before Brendan, you know, Brendan Carr said it. And then ABC suddenly decides they have to move again. This is like, it's all there, it's all on video. It's all really easy to trace the timeline. Unless you're really hoping to connect with the lowest of low information voters because the info's all there.

[Willie Geist]

The lesson he's learned back when he was anti Trump, when he was a never Trumper, saying he would be America's Hitler and all that, when Trump succeeded and won it, became President, the lesson J.D. vance learned was to be combative, to be a troller, to cry libs or whatever, whatever he wants to say, and so immediately, even as the vice president of the United States goes to that place of division, what's the thing I can say that's the most confrontational, including on these horrific tragedies that we've seen just over the last couple of weeks, rushing to assign blame, rushing to make a larger point that is even fat right before we even know anything about the shooter, rushing to say see, there they go again. And often he's wrong about it.

[Joe Scarborough]

And here he is last week assigning blame again just immediately before the investigation's even moving forward. Take a look.

[Willie Geist]

But if you look at the political violence in our country over the last couple of months, the last couple of years, it is not a both sides problem. It is primarily on one side of the political aisle. So if we are going to truly go after the political violence in this country, we need the Democratic leadership of Washington D.C. to look in the mirror.

[Joe Scarborough]

So, so, so here, here he, he blames Democrats for mad men shooting things up, blames Democrats falsely, says it's the Democrats fault. One thing he did get right, he said it's predominantly on one side of the aisle or one, one side. And it's the four right. Cato again, the Koch brothers. Cato said it's predominantly right wing. Csis predominantly right wing. Every study has shown that this century you've got Islamic radicalism. But 391 murders on the right since 1975, 65 on the left. It's just not even a close call. And sadly, sadly and tragically, it's continued this week. And you see no Democratic leaders coming out trying to blame Donald Trump. What's that on here? You're looking at three decades of political violence. Yellow is far right wing extremism violence and the green is the left. And yet we've seen shootings over the past several days and Democrats haven't rushed out trying to blame the administration or trying to blame people on the far right. It's just ghoulish that you have these unspeakable tragedies and then you have the White House JD Vance, you have Donald Trump, you have Stephen Miller, you have every, it seems like every far right podcaster, they all go out and they all say this is all the Democrats fault. And yet when it's on the other side and it's some right wing extremists, dead silence, you don't even hear anything. And most of the people in that closed off information bubble don't even know about it. It's just sad.

[Ali Vitali]

It's tragic and we have seen, I mean, even in very high profile incidents in the last couple of weeks, the rush, whether it's the FBI director or the vice president, to color the narrative about a shooting by putting out information, false or not, but like flooding the zone with, hey, when it looks like the suspect might be, quote, left wing, but yet we have had in recent days a number of shootings that do not appear. That. Where there's some of the. And we're gonna get into some of the details in a second here where it seems like some of the individuals, you know, at least in their social media accounts, might even be more conservative in their politics. Nothing. Nothing at all from the White House.

[Joe Scarborough]

Just silence.

[Ali Vitali]

Just silence. Just hoping it will go away.

[Joe Scarborough]

And I think more importantly, nothing from Democratic leaders, our Democratic, Democratic politicians blaming Republicans because of course, that would be unbelievably reckless and irresponsible.

[Ali Vitali]

And it used to be the golden standard, Mika, was simply let the investigation play out. The facts will come as they come. Exactly. As opposed to this rush to judgment.

[Mike Barnacle]

Exactly. The lurching to blame is really what's disturbing here because as investigations like this bear out, you learn a lot of things about these people. You can't jump to make one conclusion unless you're trying to stop, score political points and hurt people.

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