B (3:07)

Now, the polls, though, it suggested things were going to be very close for Cittarelli and Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey, but it turned out to be something like a 13 point spread. What can we take away from that?

D (3:17)

Well, look, I've spent the majority of my career working for Republican candidates in blue states, and it's really hard. And you need to have three things going for you to succeed. You need to have a really good candidate, you need to be running against a really bad candidate. You need to. And you need to have the political wins at your back and not in your face. And if you don't have any one of those three things, you're unlikely to win just because the math is so stacked against you. In New Jersey, for instance, there's 800,000 to maybe a million fewer Republicans and Democrats. So you're already starting off in a hole. And unless you do everything right, unless you're Chris Christie in his prime in 2009 when the economy's tanking and people don't like Obama, you're already, like, really far behind now in New Jersey. The other part of that is one of the key takeaways, and I think this is useful for all candidates everywhere, is that the cost of energy and electricity especially, was really a key issue for voters. Electricity rates have gone up 20% recently. It's just starting to get cold and colder up there. A lot of people up there need electricity to heat their homes. And guess what? The prices are gonna keep going up because Democrats like Phil Murphy, the outgoing governor, or Joe Biden, the former president, have made energy so unaffordable. Even though Pennsylvania, right next door, is the second largest producer of natural gas and that's responsible for half the country's electricity, people in New Jersey can't get it because of these crazy green policies of some of these liberals. So my point is, in saying all that is costs are a key issue right now, and conservative candidates need to really zero in on how to bring those costs down.

B (4:43)

Now, just sticking with New Jersey, it was predicted to be within the margin of error. Some polls had them within one point of each other, but it turned out to be a total wipeout. What do you think accounted for all that bad data we got?

D (4:56)

Yeah, another tough night for the pollsters. Glad that's not my industry. Look, I think it's really hard for people to understand how voters are feeling in this climate, especially as people get information from new and different ways. And that's not a new phenomenon, but it's one that becomes more pronounced, particularly as people's information gathering habits change and evolve. And the other thing I think we're going to start to see is how, and President Trump alluded to this in his remarks after the election, just how quickly people's minds may have been made up during the ongoing government shutdown and the fact that people's lives were starting to get impacted. Thanksgiving is coming up, and now we're being told that the airports are essentially shutting down and you may as well buy two plane tickets because one of them is likely to get canceled or delayed. These are real disruptions in people's lives. And that the fact that this government shutdown has reached the length it has, that could start to get people disgusted. But again, I look back at the Democratic candidate, the incoming governor, talking about, quote, unquote, freezing electric prices. Number one, you can't do that. There's no way to just freeze electric prices. And number two, I think it's really incumbent on Republican candidates everywhere to zero in on why energy prices are so high, how we got here, and how we can increase supply to bring these things down over the long term.

B (6:12)

And what was Trump's role in these races? He's a polarizing figure. Not having him on the ticket may have depressed some of the low turnout Republicans, but his omnipresence in American politics does also seem to motivate Democrats. Who do you think was helped or hurt by him in this cycle?

D (6:30)

Well, President Trump leads a movement, and when he's on the ballot, voters come out that frankly don't come out before. We saw that in 2016 when he won. We saw it in 2024 when he won by an even wider margin in 2018. In 2022, those midterm elections, Republican candidates, they didn't do as well because they don't come out when President Trump's not there. The same thing, by the way, was true of Barack Obama. Before President Trump, he also led a movement, a very different kind of movement, but it was the same phenomenon. And the challenge for these parties is to pick up the pieces once these candidates move on. And that will be the big thing for Republican candidates in 2026, certainly. And then also in 2028, when President Trump won't be on the ballot. And speaking to those core promises he made, speaking to the issues that people did turn out for him, whether it was border security, international security, and president done that successfully in just nine months. Now Republican candidates everywhere need to really zero in on the economic piece of that equation going forward.

B (7:24)

Now, there were definitely some controversial candidates on the ticket this past week. First, we had avowed socialist Zoran Mandani in New York, and also we had Jay Jones in Virginia winning ag that despite his text message scandal. What do you think their victories tell us about voters, their sentiment and the climate we're in?

D (7:44)

It says a couple of things. One, it says when you run really bad candidates in New York City, like Andrew Cuomo was and is, voters are gonna reject him. This is someone who was literally run out of the governor's office in disgrace four years ago and four years later thinks he can just come on back. He gave voters who weren't Democrats no reason to vote for him. By the way, he ran a joyless, low energy campaign. And Zoran Mamdani, say what you will about his ideas, many of them are crazy, but they're ideas. And I think it's incumbent on the other side to put forward ideas that again speak to the issues that people care about. I was going through some of the exit polls this morning. In New York City, economic issues were the top, top of mind for 8 in 10 voters. In Virginia, it was 70%. New Jersey, it was just slightly below 70. So these are the core issues. Unless you run really good candidates who talk to the voters about these issues, if the other side is putting forward bad, crazy ideas and voters are just looking for something and they're not getting anything from the other side, sometimes they may fall for the bad ideas, as unfortunately, the people and the businesses in New York City are about to find out.

B (8:47)

Now, when it comes to the 2026 midterms, do you think running on strict economic policies is going to be the winning strategy? Or do you think cultural issues still have some cachet with Republican voters and or with Democrats?

D (9:00)

All of the above. And this in 2026, we need to remind voters that the Biden hangover is real. And for four long years, he took this country in the wrong direction in almost every area. He drove inflation to record highs. He drove gas prices to record highs. He let the illegal immigrants coming across the border come to all time records. We became a joke internationally. It's gonna take anyone, even President Trump, longer than nine or 10 months to turn that mess around. But voters have short memories. And right now they see a lot of progress in the southern border. They see a lot of our standing in the world has been restored. But now they really want the Republicans who are in charge and President Trump to zero in on those economic issues. So there was a lot of amazing accomplishments that occurred over those first nine months. But again, zeroing in on what's next in terms of people's pocketbooks is important. The one big beautiful bill that passed over the summer did a lot of really important things. It extended the tax cuts. It brought no tax on tips, no tax on overtimes. It was a win. The Democrats were all against it. But there is at least another year left of unified Republican control of Congress. And now is the time to address some of these other issues so that Republican candidates next year have a real story to tell when they go make the case for their jobs again.

B (10:08)

Now, you brought up the shutdown and President Trump went on Truth Social after the election and indicated that he believes the shutdown was also hurting Republicans, almost indicating that he might be second guessing some of their strategy. What do you think the way forward is?

D (10:23)

Well, I think reopening the government's the way to go. Obviously, the Democrats have had shown no interest in doing that. They've voted now 14 times, I think, to keep the government shut down. And that's appalling. But at the same time, voters might just look at this, the entirety of the situation, and see Republicans in control of everything. And the political blame may not be necessarily fall along the lines that you think it might be. Look, the government's gotta get reopened. It's outrageous. I mean, even limited government people proponents want the government to do certain things, such as ensure that the airline's safety is accounted for, especially going into the busy holiday season. So let's hopefully this impasse comes to an end soon. Let's hope the Democrats come to their senses. And it seems like maybe there's a bit of the ice beginning to thaw. But at the same time, the Democrats are also really emboldened by what they perceive as some sort of mandate they received out of Tuesday night. And you got folks like Zoran Mamdani now driving the train, and he's not one who's interested in progress, he's one interested in scoring political points.

B (11:18)

Now, reading Trump's Truth Social post, which indicated that he is sensitive to GOP approval ratings, particularly being blamed, fairly or otherwise, for the shutdown, do you think he's going to soften on any of the things that are giving him all those bad headlines with the legacy press, or do you think he's going to double down on the things that his base wants?

D (11:38)

I think the president is keenly aware, because he went through this in his first term what a Democratic House means for him in 2027. And that means investigations and it means impeding his agenda, and it means likely another impeachment, because we've seen it all before. And I think he knows the clock is ticking. We're one year into his term now, officially. He's got one year left to do a lot of really transformational things. And if that House falls next year, Democratic hands, which if the elections were today, it likely would, that's it. And he knows that. And I think he's aware that the time is not necessarily on his side. And all the things he's done over the last year, there's a lot. This has been one of the most transformational presidents certainly in recent history. But now it's about codifying some of those wins and sustaining them and holding them beyond his term. And I expect you're going to see him really put his pedal to the metal to make that happen.

B (12:32)

All right. Well, of course, that could make things a little rough in the midterms, but he might decide that it's a worthwhile trade. Colin, thanks so much for coming on.

D (12:39)

Thank you for having me.

B (12:41)

That was Colin Reed, Republican strategist and founding partner at south and Hill Strategies, and this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.

E (12:54)

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