Morning Wire – Can The GOP Rebound? Lessons from Last Week’s Elections

Podcast: Morning Wire
Hosts: John Bickley (Daily Wire Executive Editor), Georgia Howe
Guest: Colin Reed (Republican strategist, Founding Partner at South and Hill Strategies)
Date: November 9, 2025
Episode Theme:
This episode examines the surprising Democratic victories in recent off-year elections, analyzes the Republican Party's challenges, and discusses prospects for the 2026 midterms. Republican strategist Colin Reed provides insider commentary on polling misses, the impact of economic issues, Trump’s influence, and party strategy in a shifting political landscape.

Main Topics & Discussion Points

1. Election Overview & Geographic Context

• Democratic Performance:

  • Democrats outperformed expectations in "extremely blue parts of America" despite some unpopular candidates on the ballot ([02:19], Colin Reed).
  • Colin urges not to over-read these results for national trends:

    "If Republican candidates are winning in places like New Jersey, which hasn't elected a Republican president since the Reagan era, or Virginia, which hasn't gone right at the presidential level in 20 years, or certainly New York City, where there's seven Democrats for every one Republican, then we've got an extremely unusual situation on our hands as well." — Colin Reed [02:26]

• Key Takeaway:

  • The races covered are not necessarily predictive of what will happen in battleground states during the next midterms or presidential elections.

2. Polls vs. Reality: The Data Disconnect

• Polling Misses:

  • Pre-election polls indicated tight races (e.g., within a point in New Jersey) but final margins were wide Democratic victories ([03:07] John Bickley; [04:43] Georgia Howe).
  • Colin attributes inaccurate polling to changing voter information habits and an overall difficulty in gauging sentiment:

    “It’s really hard for people to understand how voters are feeling in this climate, especially as people get information from new and different ways.” — Colin Reed [04:56]

• Effect of the Government Shutdown:

  • Government shutdown disruptions (e.g., travel, Thanksgiving plans) may have turned voters against GOP, regardless of polling ([05:10], Colin Reed).

3. Economic Issues & Republican Messaging

• Salience of Energy Costs:

  • Energy prices, especially electricity in the Northeast, were a major voter issue:

    “The cost of energy and electricity especially, was really a key issue for voters. Electricity rates have gone up 20% recently... And guess what? The prices are gonna keep going up because Democrats... have made energy so unaffordable.” — Colin Reed [03:42]

  • Republicans need to zero in on cost-of-living and explain how “green” policies have raised prices ([03:17], [05:44]).

• Voter Priorities in Exit Polls:

  • “Economic issues were the top, top of mind for 8 in 10 voters [NYC]. In Virginia, it was 70%. New Jersey, it was just slightly below 70.” — Colin Reed [07:59]

• Legislative Achievements:

  • Reed highlights a recent “big beautiful bill” that cut taxes on tips and overtime, advocating for more economic policy wins ahead of 2026 ([09:00], [09:55]).

4. Candidate Quality and Voter Sentiment

• Controversial Democrats Winning:

  • Example: Zoran Mamdani, an open socialist, wins in New York; Jay Jones wins Virginia AG despite scandals.

  • Reed on opposing weak Democrats:

    “When you run really bad candidates in New York City… voters are gonna reject him… [Cuomo] gave voters who weren't Democrats no reason to vote for him. By the way, he ran a joyless, low energy campaign.” — Colin Reed [07:44]

  • Republicans must provide better alternatives and real ideas to compete with “bad, crazy ideas” ([07:44], [08:16]).

5. Trump’s Role in Turnout and Party Strategy

• Trump Energizes Base but is Polarizing:

  • “President Trump leads a movement, and when he’s on the ballot, voters come out that frankly don’t come out before.” — Colin Reed [06:30]
  • Downside: Trump also motivates Democratic turnout; with him off the ballot, Republicans suffer low turnout ([06:30], [06:48]).

• Obama Parallels:

  • Like Trump, Obama’s personal movement was difficult for Democrats to replicate after his tenure ([06:50]).

• Looking Forward:

  • Post-Trump, GOP must refocus on economic messaging and lasting policy wins ([07:16], [11:38]).

6. The Government Shutdown: Blame and Strategy

• Shutdown Impact:

  • Reed suggests both parties are suffering, but with Republicans in power, public frustration could hurt them most ([10:08], [10:23]).
  • Importance of reopening government:

    “Even limited government proponents want the government to do certain things, such as ensure that the airline’s safety is accounted for…” ([10:34])

• Trump’s Messaging:

  • Trump is “keenly aware” of the dangers if the GOP loses the House in 2026 (“means likely another impeachment…”), so he’ll likely push hard to solidify gains before the next cycle ([11:38]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Election Results Interpretation:

  “The battle on Tuesday is not where the battle will be fought next year for the midterms, and certainly not where the presidential election will be decided two years after that.” — Colin Reed [02:54]

• On Polling Accuracy:

  “Another tough night for the pollsters. Glad that's not my industry.” — Colin Reed [04:56]

• On the Role of Economic Messaging:

  “Unless you run really good candidates who talk to the voters about these issues, if the other side is putting forward bad, crazy ideas and voters are just looking for something and they're not getting anything from the other side, sometimes they may fall for the bad ideas.” — Colin Reed [08:25]

• On Trump’s Influence and Party Strategy:

  “The president is keenly aware… what a Democratic House means for him in 2027. And that means investigations and… likely another impeachment, because we’ve seen it all before.” — Colin Reed [11:38]

Key Timestamps

• [02:06] – Introduction to Colin Reed
• [02:19] – Overview of Democratic wins in strongly blue territories
• [03:17] – Discussion of polling misses and turnout
• [03:42] – Energy and cost-of-living as a pivotal issue
• [04:56] – The challenge for pollsters in a changing media environment
• [06:12] – Assessing Trump’s effect on races, turnout, and party cohesion
• [07:44] – What victories by controversial Democrats mean
• [09:00] – Economic policy’s centrality in 2026 midterms
• [10:23] – Government shutdown and who gets the blame
• [11:38] – Trump’s sense of urgency in consolidating Republican gains

Summary Flow and Tone

This episode maintains a brisk, fact-first tone with a pragmatic, inside-the-Beltway flavor. Colin Reed brings measured skepticism to sweeping interpretations of off-year results and stresses the complexity and context of each race. The discussion dives into granular dynamics—polling mishaps, energy costs, candidate quality—while framing the big-picture stakes for Republicans: they must solidify economic wins, select strong candidates, and navigate Trump’s polarizing legacy if they hope to rebound in 2026. The conversation leaves listeners with a realistic, if cautious, Republican game plan for the road ahead.