Election Day 2025: Eyes on Jersey & NYC | 11.4.25

Summary

Morning Wire — “Election Day 2025: Eyes on Jersey & NYC”

Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: John Bickley, Georgia Howe
Reporters/Guests: Cabot Phillips, Amanda Prestigiacomo, Megan Basham, Brent Buchanan, Breca Stoll

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Episode Overview

This Election Day episode of Morning Wire delves into pivotal gubernatorial and mayoral races, with special focus on the tightening New Jersey governor’s race and the likely election of a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist as New York City’s mayor. The show explores the stakes for both major parties, shifting voter demographics, and the potential national ripple effects, particularly in the context of trust in media and politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National Trends and the 2025 Election Landscape

• Host John Bickley opens with a promise to analyze final polling and discuss what’s at stake for both parties during this off-year election (00:32–01:00).
• Cabot Phillips, Senior Editor, sets the scene:

  • GOP faces traditional challenges as the party out of national power tends to underperform in off-year contests.

  • The most competitive and consequential races are in “blue states and blue cities” this cycle.

  • New Jersey stands out as the best GOP upset opportunity, where Republican Jack Cittarelli has closed a 20-point gap against Democrat Mikie Sherrill (03:04–04:24).

    “If Citarelli's going to win today, he’s going to have to have enormous turnout from his base and also win the majority of independents — likely by around 7, 8, 10 plus points.” — Cabot Phillips (03:38)

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2. New Jersey Governor’s Race: GOP Hopes for an Upset

• Amanda Prestigiacomo reports on the razor-thin margins (07:43–08:35):
  • New Jersey has voted Democrat for president since 1992, but Cittarelli’s aggressive retail politics and focus on economic pain points have tightened the race.
  • Over a million ballots cast early, with Democrats having cast far more mail-in votes. Yet, Republicans tend to show high in-person turnout on Election Day.
• Influence of National Figures:

  • Barack Obama campaigns for Sherrill; messaging heavily focused on tying Cittarelli to Donald Trump (04:24–04:38, 08:45–08:55).

    “Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump. Here's Obama: ‘It’s hard to know where to start because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and carelessness and mean spiritedness and just plain old craziness.’” — Amanda Prestigiacomo quoting Obama (08:55)

  • Trump likewise endorses Cittarelli with strong enthusiasm, but Cittarelli balances MAGA credentials with local autonomy, promising to repeal sanctuary state policies on day one while also deferring to local officials on community policing (09:21–09:51).

• Key Local Issues:

  • Property taxes, electricity rates, and cost-of-living dominate the voter concerns.

  • Education and parental rights feature prominently, especially regarding LGBTQ curriculum mandates and allegations of lack of parental opt-out.

  • Sherrill faces skepticism for her handling of personal finances (stock trading scandals), and past controversy from her 1994 Naval Academy days.

    “New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes ... It's not surprising that Cittarelli has really focused in on those issues and criticized Democrats' policies in particular.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (10:03)

  • Emotional campaign moments: Cittarelli’s son returns from Kuwait to surprise him on the trail, noting the impact of “old-fashioned retail politics” (11:17).

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3. Virginia Governor’s Race: Democrats Hold the Lead

• Cabot Phillips and Brent Buchanan (Republican pollster) on the odds for a GOP upset:

  • Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Sears by 10 points.

  • Republican hopes hinge on massive rural turnout, holding ground in battleground regions, and depressed Democratic turnout in suburbs and cities.

    “It's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place for Winsome Sears to win.” — Brent Buchanan (05:37)

  • Texting scandal involving AG nominee Jay Jones failed to significantly damage Spanberger.

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4. California’s Prop 50: “Election Rigging Response Act”

• Cabot Phillips describes the measure (05:44–06:19):
  • Prop 50, from Governor Gavin Newsom, would suspend the state’s congressional map and let Democrats redraw districts, potentially yielding up to five new Democratic seats.
  • Republicans decry it, citing gerrymandering; Democrats frame it as a response to similar moves in GOP states.
  • The proposition is widely expected to pass and will “have major ramifications in a very closely divided Congress.”

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5. New York City Mayoral Race: A Socialist Poised to Win

• Megan Basham, Culture Reporter, analyzes frontrunner Zoran Mamdani’s strong position:

  • Polls give Mamdani a 10–25 point lead, with most showing him winning about 44–50% support; Cuomo (Democrat) trails, and Republican Curtis Sliwa is a distant third (12:08–13:08).

  • Betting markets (PolyMarket) give Mamdani a 95% chance, driven by dominance among voters under 35.

    “If he doesn't win, it's going to be an upset of pretty epic proportions.” — Megan Basham (12:08)

  • Breca Stoll (on the ground): Mamdani has vibrant online presence and energizes progressive groups, especially young and foreign-born voters (12:44).

• Policy Proposals and Demographic Splits:

  • Mamdani runs on rent freezes, free city buses, free childcare, and government-owned grocery stores.

  • Massive generational shift: Only 31% of young Democrats now have a positive view of capitalism, a 23-point drop since 2010 (13:48).

  • While foreign-born voters favor Mamdani, American-born New Yorkers slightly favor Cuomo.

  • If victorious, Mamdani would be NYC’s first Muslim mayor.

  • His positions on Israel—refusing to recognize it as a Jewish state or denounce “Globalize the Intifada”—concern Jewish voters and raise accusations of left-wing antisemitism.

    “Do you condemn that phrase, ‘globalize the intifada’?” — Georgia Howe
    “That's not language that I use. The language that I will continue to use... is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights.” — Zoran Mamdani (15:03–15:18)

• Divided Democratic Party Response:

  • Hard-left figures (AOC, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) endorse Mamdani.

  • Established leaders (Barack Obama, Hakeem Jeffries) offer tepid or very late support, carefully balancing party unity and donor concerns (15:26–17:00).

  • Governor Kathy Hochul distances herself from “tax the rich” policies while also appearing at Mamdani events, expressing concern over losing top taxpayers to out-migration:

    “1½% of New Yorkers cover about a third of our budget. … I cannot make up for that with middle class tax increases.” — Kathy Hochul (17:00)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Could be a rough night for the GOP. The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly when it comes to off-year elections.” — Cabot Phillips (03:04)
• “Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (08:45)
• “Scott Pressler…called this an economic election. Pressler said that New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes in particular.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (10:03)
• “Mamdani obviously has a really fun and great presence online. If I was in New York, I’d vote for him.” — Breca Stoll, on the ground in NYC (12:44)
• “If these numbers hold, we’re looking at the first openly socialist mayor of New York City.” — Megan Basham (13:43)
• “Only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism. That’s a massive 23-point drop since 2010.” — Megan Basham (13:48)
• “He’s done things like refused to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He’s also refused to condemn slogans like ‘globalize the Intifada.’” — Megan Basham (14:34)
• “They want that momentum, they want that youth vote ... it's an interesting dance Democratic leaders are performing.” — Megan Basham (15:47)

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Detailed Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:32 — Georgia Howe: Introduction, “Election Day is here...”
• 03:04 — Cabot Phillips: National outlook, stakes in New Jersey and Virginia
• 05:10 — Brent Buchanan: Republican path to win in Virginia
• 05:44 — Cabot Phillips: Controversial Prop 50 in California
• 07:43 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: New Jersey governor’s race analysis
• 08:45 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Obama enters NJ race, Trump’s approach
• 09:51 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Local issues driving NJ race
• 11:17 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Cittarelli’s retail politicking, family moment
• 12:08 — Megan Basham: NYC mayoral race, Mamdani’s polling lead
• 13:48 — Megan Basham: Young voters, rise of socialism among Democrats
• 14:34 — Megan Basham: Mamdani's Israel positions, community implications
• 15:26 — Georgia Howe/Megan Basham: Democratic Party establishment response
• 17:00 — Kathy Hochul: Outmigration, the budget, tax the rich debate

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Summary

This Election Day special of Morning Wire delivers an in-depth look at the dramatic, consequential races in New Jersey and New York City, and their broader implications for American politics. With New Jersey’s once-solid Democratic lead evaporating, the GOP hopes for an upset, powered by voter reaction to pressing local issues and retail campaigning. Meanwhile, New York City appears on the edge of electing its first socialist (and Muslim) mayor, propelled by a shifting younger, more diverse electorate growing skeptical of capitalism and moving the Democratic Party leftward — provoking cautious responses from national party leaders. As the landscape shifts, this episode explores the real-time tensions, strategies, and cultural undercurrents driving today’s politics.

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This summary omits advertisements and non-content segments for clarity and focus on core reporting and analysis.

Transcript

[John Bickley]

Hey guys.

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[Georgia Howe]

Election Day is here with pivotal races that will determine the direction of several cities and states.

[Brent Buchanan]

College educated voters have moved somewhat towards Republicans and non college a little bit away from Republicans.

[John Bickley]

We look at the final polling and what's on the line for each party.

[Georgia Howe]

I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley. It's Tuesday, November 4th and this is Morning Wire.

[John Bickley]

New Jersey's race for governor tightened in the final weeks. We walk through the clashing stances of the two candidates.

[Georgia Howe]

I'm declaring a state of emergency on.

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Day one, freezing utility rate hikes when I'm governor.

[Cabot Phillips]

We will not be a sanctuary state.

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I'm reversing that policy on day one.

[Georgia Howe]

And Zoran Mamdani comes into the day with the electoral wind in his sails. But where will his agenda lead? America's biggest city Together New York.

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We're going to freeze up. Together New York. We're going to make buses fast.

[John Bickley]

And thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to.

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Know.

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[John Bickley]

MorningWire it's election day as millions of voters in several states will make their voices heard.

[Georgia Howe]

Daily Wire Senior editor Cabot Phillips has more on these closely watched races. Hey Cabot, Happy Election Day.

[Cabot Phillips]

Same to you, Georgia.

[Georgia Howe]

So Megan and Amanda are going to drill down into two of these races, but I want to start with you with a general overview of what we're looking at this Election Day. What are we expecting to see?

[Cabot Phillips]

Well, to begin, this could well be a rough night for the gop. The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly when it comes to off year elections. And the biggest races this year are in blue states and blue cities. But conservatives are still hopeful that they can pull off at least one or two upsets, hopefully. And it looks like their best shot is in New Jersey. That is where Republican Jack Ciarrelli has stormed back from a 20 point deficit to give Democrat Mikey Sherrill a real run for her money. The latest polling out of the state has him within the margin of error. That's a place again where Donald Trump got within six points last year. So he's looking to continue that GOP momentum. But if Cittarelli is going to win today, he's going to have to have enormous turnout from his base and also win the majority of independents, likely by around 7, 8, 10 plus points. Remember, new Jersey has nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans. And based on the latest data, right now Democrats have already cast about 220,000 more mail in ballots than Republicans. So Citarelli is already digging out of a significant hole. That's where the turnout on Election Day comes in. This week, Democrats brought in former President Barack Obama to make the closing pitch to New Jersey voters on behalf of Mikey Sherrill. And he spent most of the speech talking about Cittarelli. Though he didn't use his name, he tried to tie him to Donald Trump. Now, for his part, Cittarelli did not seem too worried by those accusations. Have a listen on the trail this.

[Brent Buchanan]

Week, Obama said you, you're sucking up to Trump.

[Cabot Phillips]

Who said that?

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

President Obama is that president who.

[Brent Buchanan]

Yes, exactly.

[Georgia Howe]

So boost from President Obama in New Jersey, but how are things looking for them in Virginia?

[Cabot Phillips]

Yeah, this is the race where Democrats are viewing it as a safer bet with their nominee Abigail Spanberger holding about a 10 point lead over the Republican winsome Earl Sears. Republicans were hopeful that the texting scandal involving AG nominee Jay Jones, which we've talked about a lot on the show would drag Spanberger down. But despite her refusal to retract her endorsement of Jones, she is holding steady. For more on the Virginia race, I spoke with Brent Buchanan, Republican pollster who founded Signal Polling. Here's what he had to say about what it's going to take for Winsome Sears to pull off this GOP upset.

[Brent Buchanan]

The Southwest, which is the more rural Republican parts, have to come out in droves equally and are going beyond what they did for Donald Trump. She has to hold her own in what's called the Hampton Roads area, which is the Tidewater, Virginia Beach, Norfolk area in the southeast of the state. And the Election Day turnout in the suburbs and urban areas of the state have to be pretty darn low. It's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place for Winsome Sears to win.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, one more topic before you go. Prop 50 in California that's been pretty controversial. Where do things stand there?

[Cabot Phillips]

So just for context, Prop 50 is known as the Election Rigging Response Act. It was proposed by California Governor Gavin Newsom and it would suspend the state's existing congressional map and then allow Democrats to redraw the districts along partisan lines, essentially allowing them to add up to five new Democratic seats. That measure has drawn outrage from Republicans around the country. For their part, Democrats claim that it's a response to similar legislation in states like Texas. But regardless, it looks almost certain to pass tonight and likely by an overwhelming majority that could have major ramifications in a very closely divided Congress back in.

[Georgia Howe]

D.C. well, a lot of states are going to have new maps by 2026, so very interesting to see how that goes. Cabot, thanks for reporting.

[Megan Basham]

Absolutely.

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[Georgia Howe]

New Jersey residents hit the polls today to elect their next governor. The increasingly close race pits Democrat Mikey Sherrill against Republican Jack Cittarelli, who's hoping to flip the Garden State red.

[John Bickley]

Here with more is Daily Wire reporter Amanda Prestigiacomo. Hey, Amanda. So we've been covering this increasingly tight race. We just aired our interview with Cittarelli this week. And in fact, Cabot has highlighted the numbers. First, why is this race so important on a national level?

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Yeah, well, first of all, like you said, John, it really is razor thin. Most polls are within the margin of error. The important context here is that New Jersey is considered a blue state. Residents have voted for the Democrat presidential candidate in every election since 1992. The outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, he's a Democrat. And Mikey Sherrill, up until recently, she had a very substantial lead over Cittarelli. Now, as for this election, more than a million New Jersey residents have already voted. But Republicans do tend to show up right on election Day. A beautiful weather forecast as far as November new jerseys go for today in New Jersey. So, you know, we'll see if this upset is in the cards for Cittarelli.

[John Bickley]

Now, we've seen some big names, the biggest in fact, play roles in this race. Former President Obama and President Trump have had some influence here. Tell us about that.

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Yeah, I mean, you know, Democrats are concerned about a race when they call in Obama. And as has been the trend of Sheryl's campaign, Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump. Here's Obama.

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It's hard to know where to start because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and carelessness and mean spiritedness and just plain old craziness.

[John Bickley]

Definitely a lot of Trump focus like you said there for sure. Unsurprisingly. Now, how has Trump factored into Cittarelli's campaigning?

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Yeah, the president has enthusiastically endorsed Cittarelli, calling him a great candidate who's all in on the MAGA agenda. You know, as for Citorelli, he hasn't necessarily shied away from that, but there has been some NU positions because you know, he's campaigning in New Jersey and not Florida. So, for example, he said that he will repeal the broad sanctuary policy on illegal immigration on day one. But he's also indicated that whatever it is the local mayor and police chief decide to do to keep their community safe, he'll be on board with that.

[John Bickley]

All right, so he's maintaining some, if not distance, then autonomy there. Outside of the national politics, what are the main issues driving this election on a state level? Locally?

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

Yeah, I mean, economic issues are top of mind for New Jersey residents. Scott Pressler, who's known for his boots on the ground efforts, he's in New Jersey now and he's gained national attention for helping flip Pennsylvania for Trump in 2024. He told the Daily Wire that this race is 100% in play. And he called this an economic election. Pressler said that New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes in particular. And it's not surprising that Cittarelli has really focused in on those issues and criticized Democrats policies in particular. Cultural issues and parental rights. That's also playing a factor here. Cheryl did take some heat for saying that she'd mandate an LGBTQ curriculum in public schools and for suggesting that parents don't have a right to opt out of that. She's also battling some negative press about a reported $7 million that she made from stock trades while in Congress. She was actually fined for violating the stock act, for example. There's also a cheating scandal from her Naval Academy days that happened in 1994. Now, all of these matter to New Jersey residents, but I will say, you know, hitting the pavement and good old fashioned retail politics, that does seem to be helping Chitorelli. There was actually a really nice moment yesterday where at one of these stops, Citorelli's son, who's serving in the US Military, he came home from Kuwait to surprise his dad. A New Jersey.com columnist said that he wouldn't be surprised if Cittarelli does pull off this upset. He said that the Republican has been keeping a frantic schedule that makes, quote, the Energizer Bunny look like a sloth on qu. So could be another factor.

[John Bickley]

Definitely some promising signs for the Republican. But again, it's very hard to reverse electoral trends in a state. So we'll see tonight. Amanda, thanks for reporting.

[Amanda Prestigiacomo]

You're welcome.

[John Bickley]

Polls are open this morning in New York City and Zoram Mamdani, a self proclaimed Democratic socialist, appears poised to win the mayoral race.

[Georgia Howe]

Here to discuss is Daily Wire culture reporter Megan Basham. So Megan, just To start, how likely is it that Mamdani wins today?

[Megan Basham]

Well, you know, Georgia, I would say if he doesn't, it's going to be an upset of pretty epic proportions. So just to break down a few of the polling numbers that we're seeing right now, most of the major polling outfits are showing that his margins range from anywhere from 10 points to 25 points in his favor. He's winning between 44 and 50% support compared to Cuomo, who's only getting around 25 to 34% support, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, who's pulling about 15 to 21%. So Daily Wire reporter Breca Stoll was out on the ground in New York, and here's what she's seeing.

[Brent Buchanan]

Mandami obviously has a really fun and great presence online. If I was in New York, I'd vote for him.

[Georgia Howe]

I think he has some special interest groups that he will give things to and then government grocery stores with long lines, probably no food, and a lot of promises that won't actually help people. As far as free rent goes, somebody is paying for that rent. There's nothing that's free in reality.

[Megan Basham]

Now, that said, a last minute poll from Atlas intel does show the race tightening over what some of these other major polling outfits are showing. So they're giving mom donnie only a 6.6% lead over Cuomo, but it's still a lead and we're seeing that reflected in the betting markets right now. Poly Market has Mamdani's likelihood of winning at about 95%, and that's especially being driven by those young voters under 35. So I think Georgia is, if these numbers hold, we're looking at the first openly socialist mayor of New York City.

[Georgia Howe]

Is this a harbinger for the Democratic Party at large or is New York kind of a unique case?

[Megan Basham]

Well, I think it's definitely going to have some national impact. So one of the things we can look at here is the fact that the younger generation is much more open to socialism than older voters have been in the past. So according to a recent survey, only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism. And that's a massive 23 point drop since 2010. So you can see a significant shift there. So it's not surprising then that Mamdani is having some success running on things like rent freezing, free city buses, free childcare, and even government owned grocery stores with fixed prices. And then the other thing I think we can take from this is the split that we're seeing between foreign Born voters and American born voters. So the bulk of Madani's support is coming from that, that foreign born voting base. But for American born New York voters, Cuomo actually holds the lead by eight points over Mamdani. And it's also worth noting that Mamdani would be New York's first Muslim mayor. And his positions on Israel have concerned a lot of Jewish Americans. He's done things like refused to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He's also refused to condemn slogans like globalize the Intifada.

[Georgia Howe]

Do you condemn that phrase, globalize the intifada?

[John Bickley]

That's not language that I use. The language that I use and the language that I will continue to use to lead the city is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights.

[Megan Basham]

So you are hearing a lot of concern that he represents a growing acceptance of anti Semitism on the political left.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, despite all of that success with young voters and perhaps foreign born voters, it's worth noting there's a lot of reluctance from the party's top leaders to endorse Mom Donnie. There's people like AOC and Bernie Sanders who have. But aside from them, we've seen pretty tepid endorsements at best from. I think Hakeem Jeffries was the most recent. How's the party going to respond to this win, do you think?

[Megan Basham]

Yeah, I think that brings up a great point. They're obviously trying to handle him very carefully. They want that momentum, they want that youth vote. And in respect to that, it's not surprising then that you are seeing the easily hard left members of the Democratic Party, like you said, your AOCs, your Bernie Sanders, your Elizabeth Warren coming out in support of him. But the other major figureheads are treading very carefully. Barack Obama, for instance, did call him and offer some support. He offered to be a sounding board, but he didn't actually endorse Mom Donnie. And when you look at Hakeem Jeffries, that endorsement only came at the very last minute. And when he was directly asked after that if he thinks that Mom Donnie represents the new face of the Democratic Party, he said, no, he doesn't think that he does was. And you can also kind of see the difficult dance they're having to do with Governor Kathy Hochul. She appeared at an event with Mom Donnie, and when the crowd was chanting tax the rich, she responded, I hear you. But later she denied that she understood what they were saying. And so she said that she would not back raising taxes on the richest New Yorkers. Because they're crucial to the tax base.

[Georgia Howe]

1 1/2% of New Yorkers cover about a third of our budget. That's enormous. I'm concerned about outmigration of people who are the ones who are supporting our budget. I cannot make up for that with middle class tax increases. Well, Imam Donnie Win would seem to solidify a very hard left turn for the party, at least in the eyes of voters, if not some of those top party brass. Megan, thanks for reporting.

[Megan Basham]

Yep. My pleasure.

[John Bickley]

Thanks for waking up with us. And for those listening to the show, you can also watch it free on Daily Wire. Plus, we'll be back this evening with more news you need to know. Men need a store that has the right thing for their thing. Like a Kenneth Cole suit made with show flex fabric to keep them cool at their cousin in law's third wedding in the middle of July. Whatever the thing, Men's Wearhouse has the clothes for it.

[Cabot Phillips]

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[John Bickley]

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