Morning Wire — “Election Day 2025: Eyes on Jersey & NYC”

Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: John Bickley, Georgia Howe
Reporters/Guests: Cabot Phillips, Amanda Prestigiacomo, Megan Basham, Brent Buchanan, Breca Stoll

Episode Overview

This Election Day episode of Morning Wire delves into pivotal gubernatorial and mayoral races, with special focus on the tightening New Jersey governor’s race and the likely election of a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist as New York City’s mayor. The show explores the stakes for both major parties, shifting voter demographics, and the potential national ripple effects, particularly in the context of trust in media and politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National Trends and the 2025 Election Landscape

• Host John Bickley opens with a promise to analyze final polling and discuss what’s at stake for both parties during this off-year election (00:32–01:00).
• Cabot Phillips, Senior Editor, sets the scene:

  • GOP faces traditional challenges as the party out of national power tends to underperform in off-year contests.

  • The most competitive and consequential races are in “blue states and blue cities” this cycle.

  • New Jersey stands out as the best GOP upset opportunity, where Republican Jack Cittarelli has closed a 20-point gap against Democrat Mikie Sherrill (03:04–04:24).

    “If Citarelli's going to win today, he’s going to have to have enormous turnout from his base and also win the majority of independents — likely by around 7, 8, 10 plus points.” — Cabot Phillips (03:38)

2. New Jersey Governor’s Race: GOP Hopes for an Upset

• Amanda Prestigiacomo reports on the razor-thin margins (07:43–08:35):
  • New Jersey has voted Democrat for president since 1992, but Cittarelli’s aggressive retail politics and focus on economic pain points have tightened the race.
  • Over a million ballots cast early, with Democrats having cast far more mail-in votes. Yet, Republicans tend to show high in-person turnout on Election Day.
• Influence of National Figures:

  • Barack Obama campaigns for Sherrill; messaging heavily focused on tying Cittarelli to Donald Trump (04:24–04:38, 08:45–08:55).

    “Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump. Here's Obama: ‘It’s hard to know where to start because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and carelessness and mean spiritedness and just plain old craziness.’” — Amanda Prestigiacomo quoting Obama (08:55)

  • Trump likewise endorses Cittarelli with strong enthusiasm, but Cittarelli balances MAGA credentials with local autonomy, promising to repeal sanctuary state policies on day one while also deferring to local officials on community policing (09:21–09:51).

• Key Local Issues:

  • Property taxes, electricity rates, and cost-of-living dominate the voter concerns.

  • Education and parental rights feature prominently, especially regarding LGBTQ curriculum mandates and allegations of lack of parental opt-out.

  • Sherrill faces skepticism for her handling of personal finances (stock trading scandals), and past controversy from her 1994 Naval Academy days.

    “New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes ... It's not surprising that Cittarelli has really focused in on those issues and criticized Democrats' policies in particular.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (10:03)

  • Emotional campaign moments: Cittarelli’s son returns from Kuwait to surprise him on the trail, noting the impact of “old-fashioned retail politics” (11:17).

3. Virginia Governor’s Race: Democrats Hold the Lead

• Cabot Phillips and Brent Buchanan (Republican pollster) on the odds for a GOP upset:

  • Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Sears by 10 points.

  • Republican hopes hinge on massive rural turnout, holding ground in battleground regions, and depressed Democratic turnout in suburbs and cities.

    “It's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place for Winsome Sears to win.” — Brent Buchanan (05:37)

  • Texting scandal involving AG nominee Jay Jones failed to significantly damage Spanberger.

4. California’s Prop 50: “Election Rigging Response Act”

• Cabot Phillips describes the measure (05:44–06:19):
  • Prop 50, from Governor Gavin Newsom, would suspend the state’s congressional map and let Democrats redraw districts, potentially yielding up to five new Democratic seats.
  • Republicans decry it, citing gerrymandering; Democrats frame it as a response to similar moves in GOP states.
  • The proposition is widely expected to pass and will “have major ramifications in a very closely divided Congress.”

5. New York City Mayoral Race: A Socialist Poised to Win

• Megan Basham, Culture Reporter, analyzes frontrunner Zoran Mamdani’s strong position:

  • Polls give Mamdani a 10–25 point lead, with most showing him winning about 44–50% support; Cuomo (Democrat) trails, and Republican Curtis Sliwa is a distant third (12:08–13:08).

  • Betting markets (PolyMarket) give Mamdani a 95% chance, driven by dominance among voters under 35.

    “If he doesn't win, it's going to be an upset of pretty epic proportions.” — Megan Basham (12:08)

  • Breca Stoll (on the ground): Mamdani has vibrant online presence and energizes progressive groups, especially young and foreign-born voters (12:44).

• Policy Proposals and Demographic Splits:

  • Mamdani runs on rent freezes, free city buses, free childcare, and government-owned grocery stores.

  • Massive generational shift: Only 31% of young Democrats now have a positive view of capitalism, a 23-point drop since 2010 (13:48).

  • While foreign-born voters favor Mamdani, American-born New Yorkers slightly favor Cuomo.

  • If victorious, Mamdani would be NYC’s first Muslim mayor.

  • His positions on Israel—refusing to recognize it as a Jewish state or denounce “Globalize the Intifada”—concern Jewish voters and raise accusations of left-wing antisemitism.

    “Do you condemn that phrase, ‘globalize the intifada’?” — Georgia Howe
    “That's not language that I use. The language that I will continue to use... is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights.” — Zoran Mamdani (15:03–15:18)

• Divided Democratic Party Response:

  • Hard-left figures (AOC, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) endorse Mamdani.

  • Established leaders (Barack Obama, Hakeem Jeffries) offer tepid or very late support, carefully balancing party unity and donor concerns (15:26–17:00).

  • Governor Kathy Hochul distances herself from “tax the rich” policies while also appearing at Mamdani events, expressing concern over losing top taxpayers to out-migration:

    “1½% of New Yorkers cover about a third of our budget. … I cannot make up for that with middle class tax increases.” — Kathy Hochul (17:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Could be a rough night for the GOP. The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly when it comes to off-year elections.” — Cabot Phillips (03:04)
• “Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (08:45)
• “Scott Pressler…called this an economic election. Pressler said that New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes in particular.” — Amanda Prestigiacomo (10:03)
• “Mamdani obviously has a really fun and great presence online. If I was in New York, I’d vote for him.” — Breca Stoll, on the ground in NYC (12:44)
• “If these numbers hold, we’re looking at the first openly socialist mayor of New York City.” — Megan Basham (13:43)
• “Only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism. That’s a massive 23-point drop since 2010.” — Megan Basham (13:48)
• “He’s done things like refused to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He’s also refused to condemn slogans like ‘globalize the Intifada.’” — Megan Basham (14:34)
• “They want that momentum, they want that youth vote ... it's an interesting dance Democratic leaders are performing.” — Megan Basham (15:47)

Detailed Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:32 — Georgia Howe: Introduction, “Election Day is here...”
• 03:04 — Cabot Phillips: National outlook, stakes in New Jersey and Virginia
• 05:10 — Brent Buchanan: Republican path to win in Virginia
• 05:44 — Cabot Phillips: Controversial Prop 50 in California
• 07:43 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: New Jersey governor’s race analysis
• 08:45 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Obama enters NJ race, Trump’s approach
• 09:51 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Local issues driving NJ race
• 11:17 — Amanda Prestigiacomo: Cittarelli’s retail politicking, family moment
• 12:08 — Megan Basham: NYC mayoral race, Mamdani’s polling lead
• 13:48 — Megan Basham: Young voters, rise of socialism among Democrats
• 14:34 — Megan Basham: Mamdani's Israel positions, community implications
• 15:26 — Georgia Howe/Megan Basham: Democratic Party establishment response
• 17:00 — Kathy Hochul: Outmigration, the budget, tax the rich debate

Summary

This Election Day special of Morning Wire delivers an in-depth look at the dramatic, consequential races in New Jersey and New York City, and their broader implications for American politics. With New Jersey’s once-solid Democratic lead evaporating, the GOP hopes for an upset, powered by voter reaction to pressing local issues and retail campaigning. Meanwhile, New York City appears on the edge of electing its first socialist (and Muslim) mayor, propelled by a shifting younger, more diverse electorate growing skeptical of capitalism and moving the Democratic Party leftward — provoking cautious responses from national party leaders. As the landscape shifts, this episode explores the real-time tensions, strategies, and cultural undercurrents driving today’s politics.

This summary omits advertisements and non-content segments for clarity and focus on core reporting and analysis.