Hispanic Shift: Why Latino Voters Are Turning Red | 11.16.24

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary: "Hispanic Shift: Why Latino Voters Are Turning Red" | November 16, 2024

Hosted by John Bickley and Georgia Howe for The Daily Wire

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Introduction: The Hispanic Vote Surge for Trump

In this episode of Morning Wire, John Bickley introduces the pressing topic of shifting political allegiances among Hispanic voters. He highlights a significant trend from the recent election:

"One out of every three minority voters pulled the lever for Donald Trump this election. That included massive gains among Hispanic voters, nearly half of whom voted for him this time around." ([00:03])

This unexpected surge has left political strategists questioning the underlying causes and the sustainability of this shift.

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Key Guest: Jim Robb of Numbers USA

Jim Robb, Vice President of Alliances at Numbers USA, a nonpartisan immigration reform group, joins the discussion to shed light on this phenomenon.

Primary Drivers: Inflation and Illegal Immigration

Robb attributes the shift primarily to economic and immigration concerns:

"The number one reason is probably inflation, but close on its heels is illegal immigration." ([01:53])

He elaborates on how these issues have resonated with Hispanic voters, particularly reflecting dissatisfaction with the government's handling of illegal immigration.

Historical Context and Americanization

Historically, Hispanic voters leaned Democratic, but recent elections show a pivot towards the Republican Party. Robb compares the 2024 election to Trump's 2016 campaign:

"In 2016, more Hispanics voted for Trump than Romney four years earlier, which shocked everybody because Trump was very clear that he was going to stress deportations and the border wall." ([02:54])

He emphasizes that Hispanic voters, being largely American citizens with deep-rooted ties to the country, prioritize issues like job security, affordable prices, safe streets, and secure borders over partisan identities.

Cultural Assimilation and Voting Behavior

Robb discusses the role of assimilation in voting patterns:

"The more people are comfortable with the English language, the more Republican they're voting." ([04:34])

He points out that Hispanics are not a monolithic group; they encompass diverse backgrounds and cultures. As they assimilate into American culture, factors such as language proficiency, religiosity, and marital status influence their political preferences, often aligning them more with Republican values.

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Impact in Border States: Texas, Florida, Arizona

The shift is particularly pronounced in border states where immigration issues are more palpable.

• Texas: An outright majority of Hispanic voters supported Trump.
• Florida & Arizona: Similar trends observed, driven by concerns over illegal immigration and its local impacts.

Robb explains:

"Hispanics in Texas felt there was an invasion of sorts going on, encouraged by the Biden administration." ([06:36])

He details how increased illegal immigration has strained local resources, such as emergency rooms and schools, fostering resentment towards Democratic policies perceived as lenient on border control.

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Deportation Policies and Republican Appeals

The legacy media has criticized Trump's deportation strategies, but Robb argues these policies resonate with Hispanic voters:

"People who are here illegally are already beginning to panic... It's going to look like a lot." ([08:23])

He discusses the practical aspects of deportation efforts, such as implementing E-Verify:

"Two-thirds of Hispanics want mandatory E-Verify. It's popular amongst every group." ([10:25])

Robb advocates for E-Verify as a cost-effective solution to curb illegal employment, aligning with the majority sentiment among Hispanic voters.

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Future Trends: Continued Republican Attraction

Robb is optimistic that this trend will persist:

"More Hispanics will continue to vote Republican primarily because they're a working-class group." ([10:35])

He attributes this to the Republican focus on economic issues that directly impact working families, contrasting with the Democratic emphasis on identity politics and trendy issues.

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Final Takeaway: Understanding the Hispanic American Identity

Robb concludes with a critical insight for all political entities:

"Hispanics are Americans. They're working Americans who want what other working Americans want for their families." ([11:43])

He urges Democrats and Republicans alike to recognize that Hispanic voters prioritize practical issues over partisan affiliations, emphasizing the need for policies that address their economic and security concerns.

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Closing Remarks

John Bickley wraps up the discussion, reiterating the importance of understanding the evolving dynamics within the Hispanic electorate. The episode underscores a pivotal moment in American politics, where economic and immigration issues are reshaping traditional voting patterns.

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the "Hispanic Shift: Why Latino Voters Are Turning Red" episode of Morning Wire, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners and those interested in the political realignment of Hispanic voters.

Transcript

[John Bickley]

One out of every three minority voters pulled the lever for Donald Trump this election. That included massive gains among Hispanic voters, nearly half of whom voted for him this time around. That surge in support has left many strategists asking what's driving Hispanics towards Republicans and whether this trend will continue. In this episode, we sit down with an executive of an immigration reform group who says it will. I'm Daily Weyer Editor in Chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. November 16th, and this is a Saturday edition of Morning Wire.

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[John Bickley]

Joining us to discuss the political realignment of Hispanic voters is Jim Robb, vice president of alliances at Numbers usa. That's a nonpartisan immigration reform group. Hey, Jim, first of all, thank you so much for joining us.

[Jim Robb]

Yeah, I love you guys. So you're welcome.

[John Bickley]

We love hearing that. Of course. So with Donald Trump's victory, we saw him pick up votes from several new groups that didn't show him as much enthusiasm back in 2016 and 2020. That includes the Hispanic vote. While Harris won the demographic, it wasn't by much. And Hispanic men particularly voted for Trump. What's causing this shift in that demographic? Why is it happening now?

[Jim Robb]

The number one reason is probably inflation, but close on its heels is illegal immigration. So we did a lot of polling on this subject before the election and over the years, but particularly this year with Rasmussen, our polling partner, and we got some really wild answers, unexpected, at least some would not have expected it. For example, we asked on the question of illegal immigration, is the government doing too much or too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays? And amongst Hispanic likely voters, 55% said the government is doing too little. And we asked this question consistently for the past couple of years. And it was always very high amongst Hispanics, higher than for black voters and almost as high as for the Anglo white group.

[John Bickley]

Now, historically, this demographic has loyally voted blue. How does the 2024 election compare to Trump's first round in the 2016 race.

[Jim Robb]

Well, the thing that was surprising in 2016 is that more Hispanics voted for Trump in 16 than who had voted for Romney four years earlier. And that shocked everybody because Trump was very clear that he was going to stress deportations and the border wall. And he used some very unflattering language about some Mexican immigrants. But the thing that Democrats have forgotten or have not learned is that Hispanic voters are Americans. They're American citizens. That's why they vote. And of the 62 million Hispanics living in this country as of the 2020 census, 2/3 were actually born in this country. And another 8 million of those not born here have become U.S. citizens because they came in legally. So we really have a citizen Hispanic population. And they're Americans and they know which side they're on. They want the same thing that other Americans want for their families. They want a good job, they want prices in the store they can afford, they want safe streets, they want secure borders. And I think the Democrats fell into this false notion that people vote as a bloc and that Hispanics main thing they want is more people that look like them in the country when nothing's further from the truth. Hispanics are just like other Americans, I think, in that respect, they want what's good for their families.

[John Bickley]

So is the argument here that part of this is just the continued increasing Americanization of more Hispanics, more generations born here that see themselves as just Americans, not as Hispanic Americans?

[Jim Robb]

My research indicates that the more people are comfortable with the English language, the more Republican they're voting. And so, for example, if people are speaking mostly English at home, they're more Republican. If Hispanics are more religious, they're voting more Republican. But that's true of every ethnic group. People who are married vote more Republican. I think Democrats forget that Hispanic is not a race. Hispanics can be white, black, Asian, Indian, and it's not even strictly speaking an ethnicity. It's people from 20 Spanish speaking countries or so. They don't have a common culture between them really. People from Argentina and Costa Rica. And these places are thousands of miles apart and develop quite separately. So these are people who have come in and over time as they're here a while, they assimilate into American culture. We find that Hispanics are very high on America in their polling responses. They feel welcomed here and the more welcomed they say they are, the more likely they are to vote Republican. Hispanics serve in the armed forces at high numbers, even higher than their numbers in the Population, Hispanics tend to be patriotic. They tend to believe in the American dream, feel good about this country. One thing Rasmussen asked is if it was likely. Here's the quote. Was it likely that the increased immigration, the illegal immigration in the past few years was purposefully allowed by the Biden administration? And amongst Hispanics, 35% said, yes, very likely, and another 33% said somewhat likely. So that's 68%. That's higher than the number who felt that way amongst whites. So Hispanics felt that Biden was engineering a collapsed border. And obviously the voting says they resented it, like all other Americans. And one important thing is that Hispanics of Texas and other border regions voted even heavier for Trump.

[John Bickley]

Yeah, I wanted to ask about Texas. What did we see there? And in other border states.

[Jim Robb]

So Texas, an outright majority of Hispanics voted for Trump. And then Florida, which is another. It's not a border state in terms of a land border, but it's got a water border. Right. With all these islands. And so they're getting lots of illegal immigration, too. Hispanics voted for Trump, Arizona and other places like that, many of them, Hispanics voted outright for Trump. And I think the reason is they do feel there was an invasion of sorts going on and that it was encouraged by the Biden administration. So the youngest group of Hispanics, they were born in this country, they're educated in English, they read the US Internet. They know which side they're on, and they don't like it that people are coming up competing for jobs. When people go, especially in the Southwest, when you go to the emergency room to seek emergency care, you can't be seen for hours sometimes, because illegal immigrants are jammed into these because they don't have insurance, they don't have doctors. So if they get sick at all, they've got to go to the emergency room. People see this in the schools in the Southwest, the kids are being educated in trailers behind the schools because they're so crowded with all these new arrivals. And people know that it's because Biden and Harris were not even concerned that this was going on. And they sent signals to the whole world that America is open for illegal immigration. And people came.

[John Bickley]

The legacy media has been really sounding the alarm over Trump's deportation plans. How do you think the deportation messaging from him and the appointments he's already made for his Cabinet, like Tom Homan, how do you think that's going to resonate with Hispanic voters?

[Jim Robb]

Well, people who are here illegally are already beginning to panic. I've been hearing this from Various sources, and they have reason to worry. But Trump doesn't have, like a magic army that nobody can see. He's got a certain limited number of ICE agents he can put into this. And I don't know, maybe the army will be involved, but it would be in a supporting role. We've already learned. So it's going to be a fairly slow thing. But the thing is, there hasn't been any deportations under Biden, so it's going to look like a lot. Now, I think what they ought to do sooner rather than later is pass mandatory E Verify for every US Business because E Verify is something that was set up 30 years ago. Half of new US hires are run through E Verify every year now because lots of people have to use it because they're government contractors or they volunteer to use it. But if we can get the rest of the employers to use it and make it mandatory, then these fake Social Security cards that illegal immigrants present to get a job would be spotted as fake and that people wouldn't get those jobs. It wouldn't cause a revolution. Existing employees, even if they're illegal, can't be run through E Verify. But as people shift jobs or they're getting a new job, then E Verify would stop them. And a lot of people, once they get the message that you can't get jobs in America or you can't easily get them where you can only get very substandard, under the table work, they'll begin to drift home. And that's the smart move. It won't cost anything. The system works now. It's set up now. We should do it. Rasmussen asked Hispanics, do you support or oppose legislation to implement E Verify, which would make it harder for businesses to hire illegal aliens? And 36% said, yes, they strongly support that. And another 30% said they somewhat support it. That's 66%. Two thirds of Hispanics want mandatory E Verify. It's popular amongst every group. It's the easy win. It costs nothing. Congress should do it right away.

[John Bickley]

Well, as we've mentioned, we've seen a trend for a few elections now of more and more Hispanics voting Republican. Do you see this continuing? Is this going to be the trend going forward?

[Jim Robb]

Yes. More Hispanics will continue to vote Republican primarily because they're a working class group. 85% of them don't have a college degree at this time, although the younger Hispanics are enrolled at colleges at pretty good rates. But right now it's working class and working class populations across every ethnicity and race. In America are shifting Republican because Republicans are talking about things that matter to them, like keeping prices low, like secure borders, about making businesses be able to take off by lowering regulations, things like that. Lunch pail issues, as the Democrats used to call it when they cared about such things. So because of that, the trend will continue, I think. And I don't think there's any end in sight unless Democrats wake up and want to return their party to something like a party that working people could support. Right now, it's all trendy issues and identity groups.

[John Bickley]

Final button here. What do you think is the biggest takeaway in terms of the Hispanic population that Democrats, Republicans, everyone should internalize from this election?

[Jim Robb]

Being tough on crime, tough on the border, muscular foreign policy? These issues appeal to working people and Hispanics like it. And Hispanics are Americans. They're working Americans who want what other working Americans want for their families.

[John Bickley]

Republicans certainly appearing to have embraced that view far more. And Democrats. Jim, thanks so much for coming on today.

[Jim Robb]

My pleasure.

[John Bickley]

That was Jim Robb, vice president of Alliances at Numbers usa. And this has been a Saturday edition of MORNING wire.