Inflation, War, and Voters: What the Data Really Shows

Summary

Morning Wire: "Inflation, War, and Voters: What the Data Really Shows"

Date: March 29, 2026
Hosts: John Bickley and Georgia Howe
Guest: Brent Buchanan, CEO of Signal Polling

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles how current economic pressures—especially inflation, gas prices, and affordability—are impacting American voters, the shifting political landscape, and parallels in Europe. Guest Brent Buchanan, a pollster and political analyst, offers data-driven insights into voter sentiment, wage growth, and the significant demographics influencing the 2026 election. The conversation also touches on European political trends, immigration, and how recent conflicts are shaping energy and cost-of-living concerns.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Realities Behind Economic Anxiety

(03:17 – 04:35)

• Brent Buchanan highlights the distinction between media narratives of economic "doom" and what the data actually shows.
• Wage Growth: Buchanan points out that while costs have risen, increased wages cushion the impact for many Americans—something often ignored in discussion about affordability.
• Quote:

  “That’s a really important aspect of costs that nobody’s talking about, which is that if you have more money to spend and costs go up a little bit, it doesn’t impact you nearly as much.”
  —Brent Buchanan (03:29)

• According to a recent survey, 64% of Americans say they are living "comfortably or fine", challenging mainstream narratives of universal struggle.

2. Americans’ Self-Reported Economic Health

(04:35 – 05:26)

• Buchanan shares that only 15% of Americans report “struggling to make ends meet.”
• The survey granularly categorized responses: from "living comfortably," to "just getting by,” to “struggling.”
• Quote:

  "We only had 15% of Americans say that they're struggling to make ends meet out of those response options.”
  —Brent Buchanan (04:47)

• This is the first time their organization has posed the question in this manner, aiming to cut through generalized worries to the actual experiences of everyday Americans.

3. Top Affordability Challenges

(05:26 – 06:19)

• Before recent gas price spikes, the main affordability concerns were:
  • Health insurance (top driver)
  • Grocery prices
  • Housing
  • Gas (moved up due to recent increases)
• Current events, like the Iran conflict, have altered the importance of these factors, but grocery and health care costs remain the top concerns.
• Quote:

  "I would imagine that with the large increase in gas prices in the last three weeks, that matrix has shifted itself.”
  —Brent Buchanan (05:34)

4. Comparative Economic Trends: US vs. Europe

(06:52 – 07:52)

• Buchanan underscores different cost structures: Europeans have higher taxes but lower out-of-pocket health expenses.
• While European groceries haven't risen as sharply, energy costs (especially due to the Ukraine war) have increased more for Europeans than Americans.
• The US, as an energy producer, has been somewhat shielded from global price shocks compared to Europe.
• Quote:

  "They get hit by energy cost a lot more and that goes all the way back to the Ukraine war... This is probably more acute on Europeans... even more so than it is in the US where we produce a massive amount of energy." —Brent Buchanan (07:20)

5. Impact on Political Preferences and the 2026 Election

(07:52 – 09:43)

• Opinions about Trump remain firmly entrenched—voters either strongly support or oppose him.
• The more significant political shifts are in the demographic composition of the electorate:
  • Voters under 55
  • Those earning under $75,000 a year
  • Non-college-educated Americans
• These groups—previously strongholds for Republicans—are now the most volatile, with recent polling showing Republicans slipping among them.
• Quote:

  “They need to be acutely aware of how their messaging...really need to be laser focused on younger, lower income, less educated Americans because that's who's going to end up deciding this election.”
  —Brent Buchanan (09:24)

6. Immigration and Right-Wing Surges in Europe

(09:43 – 10:43)

• Recent local elections in France saw right-wing parties gaining unexpected wins, especially in cities like Nice historically not considered right-leaning strongholds.
• The surge is largely driven by immigration concerns, paralleling shifts in US politics during the 2024 election.
• Quote:

  “The right is surging and they're surging on the issue of immigration, which is exactly what surged the right wing party in America in the 24 election.”
  —Brent Buchanan (10:11)

• They discuss Nice's unique geography: while well-off, it faces heavy migration due to its southern coastal location, drawing a parallel to Miami and the Rio Grande Valley.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “Mainstream media [says]... everybody is struggling right now. There are definitely people struggling, but it doesn’t necessarily fit with the data we have in our polling…”
  —Brent Buchanan (03:57)
• “If [younger, lower-income, non-college-educated voters] come back to Republicans, Republicans win. If they don’t, it will be a failure of messaging.”
  —Brent Buchanan (09:33)
• “[In France] over the weekend, right wing parties picked up a significant number of local elections, mayorship, city council control, which was not expected…”
  —Brent Buchanan (09:58)
• “[Nice is] more like putting Miami on the Rio Grande Valley. The Rio Grande Valley is not well to do. Nice is well to do.”
  —Brent Buchanan (10:35)

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Important Timestamps

• 03:17 — Brent Buchanan joins, discusses wage growth and economic realities
• 04:35 — "64% living comfortably": Survey results discussed
• 05:26 — Top affordability concerns identified
• 06:52 — US vs. Europe: Comparative economic stress
• 07:52 — Analysis: Political sentiment and shifting voter demographics
• 09:43 — European right-wing surge; France’s local elections and immigration impact
• 10:35 — Unique case of Nice, drawing parallels to the US

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Conclusion

Brent Buchanan provides a more nuanced look at economic pain points, voter sentiment, and global political shifts. While headlines may focus on crisis, data indicates only a minority of Americans are truly struggling, with most maintaining a sense of financial stability. Key battlegrounds for the coming election will be younger, lower-income, and non-college-educated voters—groups that are also defining the electoral shifts in Europe driven by immigration and energy costs.

This episode underscores the importance of messaging precision and the emerging parallels between American and European political realignments in the face of economic and immigration challenges.

Transcript

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[Brent Buchanan]

Affordability remains a top concern for Americans as rising gas prices threaten to spike necessities like groceries even more. Surveys show a key GOP demographic is feeling the pinch most acutely, which could spell trouble for Trump this fall.

[Georgia Howe]

In this episode, we speak to a pollster and political analyst about the state of the economy and how it's affecting the mood of voters both in the US And Europe. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive editor John Bick, and this is a weekend edition of Morning Wire.

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[Georgia Howe]

Joining us now is founder and CEO of Signal Polling, Brent Buchanan. Brent, thanks for coming on.

[Brent Buchanan]

Glad to be here.

[Georgia Howe]

So prices are surging right now because of gas, but there's, of course, the larger economy to look at as well. Now, you've reported there are some positives. First, can you tell us the big picture, particularly with jobs?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, let's go back to President Trump's State of the Union where he talked about wage growth. That's a really important aspect of costs that nobody's talking about, which is that if you have more money to spend and costs go up a little bit, it doesn't impact you nearly as much. And one of the hardest things about the Joe Biden presidency was the fact that wages were depressed while costs were skyrocketing. So your ability to purchase was even made worse and harder then even slight increases to price right now. So that's the number one thing, is focusing on what are the two inputs of everybody's budget. And that is what money do I have coming in and what money is going out. And so while you have small spikes on gas price from the Iran conflict, you actually have 64% of people who are saying that they're living comfortably or fine right now. And so it doesn't necessarily match with the narrative of the doom scroller narrative. Mainstream media saying that, you know, everybody is struggling right now. There are definitely people struggling, but it doesn't necessarily fit with the data we have in our polling and also the data that you see on wage growth right now.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, when you say 64% of people report living comfortably, how does that number compare to say, a few years ago or just the baseline for the American population? As long as we've been looking at numbers like that?

[Brent Buchanan]

It's a good question. And it's not one that we have asked historically. We were really trying to dig into in our March national survey. What is the truth behind the. When people say affordability and cost living. You know, God has blessed my family, but I still notice when things are getting more expensive and we make different decisions as a family. But I, we, we wanted to suss through what is the truth behind all of this. And that's why we asked the question in that way, are you living comfortably? Are you doing okay and having to watch things be careful. Are you just getting by? Are you struggling to make ends meet? And, and we only had 15% of Americans say that they're struggling to make ends meet out of those, those response options.

[Georgia Howe]

Although the fact remains people are very concerned about affordability. What are the main pain points that people are talking about when it comes to prices?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, one of the largest things that we've seen, at least prior to the Iran conflict come out is people are saying that it is the affordability of health insurance. That's one of the largest drivers of a concern that they have related to their own personal ability to afford their life. Then secondarily comes in, usually at grocery prices, and then you start to see housing come in and then usually after that it's gas. I would imagine that with the large increase in gas prices in the last three weeks, that matrix has shifted itself. So. But I don't think that you're going to see it overtake groceries and health care cost as likely still the two largest impacts of people's ability to afford life.

[Georgia Howe]

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[Brent Buchanan]

Well, they have a little bit different cost structure than we do because they pay a lot more in taxes. And so many of the things that we in America are used to paying for, like health insurance, are covered, but they pay higher taxes in that they've not necessarily seen the same rise in grocery costs at the same rate that we've seen here in the US I actually just had some friends at my house last night from the Middle East. And they were, she was telling me that she was surprised at how expensive groceries are here comparatively every time she comes back to the states. Now, that being said, they get hit by energy cost a lot more and that goes all the way back to the Ukraine war. And so this is probably more acute on Europeans, a change in the cost of gas and liquid, natural gas and other forms of energy, even more so than it is in the US where we produce a massive amount of energy. And I think this is going to be an opportunity for American energy companies to shine and really build up and come out of this thing stronger, even if even with this minor blip in between.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, I know you also look at political opinions and sentiment. How is the war affecting people's opinion of the Trump administration?

[Brent Buchanan]

It's pretty hard to move somebody's opinion of the Trump administration. He is one of the hardest figures in America in the sense of you have a strong opinion, a very hard opinion one way or the other on Donald Trump. I think it's more so the sorting of who is interested or not interested in politics. So one thing that I spent last week weekend doing was looking at our presidential exit poll by demographic group and comparing that to our most recent March national survey and trying to understand where have Republicans slipped in the centrum from coming out winning the national popular vote to being down a few points in the congressional generic ballot right now. And it is exclusively voters under the age of 55. It is almost exclusively voters making under $75,000 a year and it is heavily weighted to non college educated voters. Now outside of the age aspect of those three groups, you would normally say, okay, I'm describing Republicans because Republican voters base are more likely to be non college educated, more likely to be lower down the income scale, which is different from 30 years ago when Republicans were the party of the country club. And so it definitely is not everything's bright and rosy right now for Republicans. They need to be acutely aware of how their messaging is this, this war and conflict, how they are talking about affordability. The things specifically within affordability that they're talking about really need to be laser focused on younger, lower income, less educated Americans because that's who's going to end up deciding this election if they come back to Republicans, Republicans win. If they don't, it will be a failure of messaging, of casting the vision for what giving them another two years is going to look like.

[Georgia Howe]

Now before you go, we've seen some interesting political trends in Europe just over the past month. There are indications that the immigration crisis is moving the needle in several countries. The UK Germany, and most recently France. What happened in France this past week?

[Brent Buchanan]

Over the weekend in France, right wing parties picked up a significant number of local elections, mayorship, city council control, which was not expected, including in the city of Nice, which is not a right wing bastion. So if they're winning there, they're going to win elsewhere in the country. The right is surging and they're surging on the issue of immigration, which is exactly what surged the right wing party in America in the 24 election.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, does Nice have disproportionately more migrants just because of where it is geographically?

[Brent Buchanan]

Yeah, it's on the. It's on the southern coast and that's where they're dropping off on the beaches there.

[Georgia Howe]

So a political realignment very much like what we saw along the Rio Grande

[Brent Buchanan]

Valley, but it's more like putting Miami on the Rio Grande Valley. The Rio Grande valley is not well to do. Nice is well to do.

[Georgia Howe]

Yeah, that's an interesting distinction. And of course, we did see a similar shift in Miami in 2024. Brent, thank you so much for coming on and hopefully we'll have you back soon.

[Brent Buchanan]

Hey, my pleasure. Good to see y'. All.

[Georgia Howe]

That was Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of Signal polling. And this has been a weekend edition of morning.

[Brent Buchanan]

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