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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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John Bickley
President Trump announces a two week double sided ceasefire deal with Iran requiring the regime to reopen the string of Hormuz.
- [00:42]
Georgia Howe
As the president would say, the US Holds all the cards here. We are sort of giving, giving diplomacy a chance here and I think that's a very important milestone to watch.
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John Bickley
We break down the 11th hour agreement and whether the ceasefire will hold. I'm Daily Wire Executive editor John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Wednesday, April 8th. This is Morning Wire.
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Benham Ben Talablu
This is a regime that right now, yes, you can say is playing to the edge. But oftentimes it goes past that edge as well. It overplays its hand.
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Morning Wire Host
While the eyes of the world have been focused on the Iranian regime, the Iranian people have faced brutal crackdowns and an isolating blackout. We talked to an expert about the situation on the ground now in Iran. Thanks for waking up with MORNING Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
- [01:36]
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- [02:40]
Morning Wire Host
with just over an hour to go before his 8pm deadline expired, President Trump announced a two week double sided ceasefire with Iran if they'll swiftly and safely open the Strait of Hormuz.
- [02:53]
John Bickley
Joining us now to discuss this rapidly developing situation is Wired In Live host Cabot Phillips. Hey Cabot. So we were all bracing last night either for a diplomatic breakthrough or a dramatic bombing campaign. For now we have the former. Let's start with President Trump's announcement last night. What did we hear from him?
- [03:12]
Cabot Phillips
Yeah, these negotiations quite literally came down to the wire with, as Trump put it, civilization altering stakes. I was live on the air for Wired in as the story broke last night. Every time I refreshed my feed or opened my text messages, there was a new development. It was a stunning night. So to recap, President Trump on Sunday gave the Iranians until 8pm Eastern Time on Tuesday night to open the Strait of Hormuz or face the consequences. And around 6:30 he issued that stunning announcement on Truth Social that a two week ceasefire had been reached, but with a number of critical conditions. First, the ceasefire hinges on Iran opening the Strait of Horus immediately while also continuing to negotiate in what he called good faith. President wrote, quote, based on conversations with Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran and and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. But again, this is very contingent on the Iranians. They need to, as he noted, open up the strait. Trump called this a, quote, double sided ceasefire, saying they had, quote, received a 10 point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. The President also said, quote, almost all of the various points of past contention had been agreed to between the US And Iran, but a two week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated.
- [04:40]
John Bickley
Obviously this announcement was welcome news to say the least. But the big question last night for a while at least was if the Iranian leadership is fully on board. We did hear from them. What have they said?
- [04:51]
Cabot Phillips
Right. They were immediately, for good reason, lots of questions about the Iranians and who exactly was involved in this decision on their side. The official confirmation of the deal came from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, not the Supreme Leader, which is notable as there have been reports that he has been incapacitated for the last week, potentially longer. The Council announced about half an hour after Trump's post that they had accepted the terms of the two week ceasefire and would negotiate with the US In Pakistan beginning on Friday. The Security Council emphasized, however, that this does not mean the war is over and that their, quote, hands remain upon the trigger and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force. So, obviously some posturing there, but the key part here was that they said the Strait of Hormuz will be opened up for safe passage, but with a condition that vessels passing through coordinate with the Iranian military ahead of time.
- [05:42]
John Bickley
Now, you mentioned the 10 point plan offered by Iran. We have seen that. Now, what exactly is in it?
- [05:48]
Cabot Phillips
Well, it is a hefty list of demands for sure. The 10 point plan includes calls for a permanent end to the war, lifting of all US Sanctions on both Iran and its allies, including and guarantees the Iranians will not be attacked again. It also calls for an end to Israel's military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In return, Iran says it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while also imposing a multi million dollar fee on ships passing through it. The tolls, they say, would be used for reconstruction in the country. And speaking of the strait, they also demanded complete control of it. That proposal came after the regime rejected a US Backed framework that included an immediate ceasefire and, and broader conditions on its military activity.
- [06:27]
John Bickley
Still, a lot of skepticism that Trump will end up agreeing to all of these terms, or maybe even any of them to that point. What should we expect in this coming process?
- [06:37]
Cabot Phillips
Well, that is the big question. And that part about skepticism just cannot be overstated. It's almost impossible to see a scenario where President Trump agrees to those demands. I just read no matter how bad he wants peace. And many analysts and foreign policy experts are expressing skepticism that Iran will back down, which could force the President to resume his military effort. To that point, I spoke with Dave Durocha, former liaison at the Department of Defense. He expressed confidence that the war actually would resume, but said last night's saga weakened the Iranian standing.
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Dave Durocha
It will not last more than four days, but even if it falls apart within two days, President Trump will have succeeded in showing the Iranians one of their consistent lines. And I spent, for three weeks, I spent seven hours a day doing live television with an Iranian regime spokesman. You know, they said, oh, no, we'll never negotiate. We'll never do this. We're going to fight to the death rather than agree with this. Well, they will negotiate. They will agree with it. So I think this is demoralizing. And I think that when the war picks up again, and it will, you'll have a much demoralized. It's not enough time for Iran to reconstitute the military capacity. They've lost.
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John Bickley
All right, so he sees this as a win for Trump no matter how long this holds. Now, what do we know about what got this process going? I know Pakistan clearly played a big role there. What have we learned so far?
- [08:00]
Cabot Phillips
That's right. And again, this is all developing, so I'm sure we'll know more in the coming hours. But what we know so far is that the first real solid rumblings of a deal came from Pakistan. Its prime minister, Shabazz Sharif, posted a request on X for President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. He cited strong progress on the diplomatic talks with Iran and also requested his, quote, iranian brothers to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks as a goodwill gesture. The White House responded to that post from the Pakistanis pretty quickly, saying they were looking into it. And that is when the buzz really picked up last night that a ceasefire was in the works. And interestingly, before the ceasefire was announced yesterday, China and Russia each vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to reopen the Strait. But there have been some unconfirmed reports that China actually played a role in urging Iran to be more reasonable last night and accept this offer.
- [08:49]
John Bickley
Well, to say the least, Cabot, a remarkable turnaround from where things started yesterday to where things ended. Before you go, what should we expect in the coming days? I know there's a big Pentagon press briefing today. When is that happening and who's involved?
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Cabot Phillips
Right. War Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Kaine will be speaking. It's scheduled for 8am Eastern time. So just a few hours after this episode goes live, no doubt we'll be hearing more details about this agreement and how the administration plans to handle these next crucial steps in the coming days.
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John Bickley
We'll be tuning in for that for sure. And meanwhile, let's hope this ceasefire holds. Kaba, thanks so much for reporting.
- [09:26]
Ryan Reynolds
Absolutely.
- [09:28]
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- [10:04]
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Morning Wire Host
Iranian people have labored under a near total Internet blackout for over a month as the embattled Iranian regime has choked off nearly all communications.
- [10:40]
John Bickley
Joining us now to discuss the situation in Iran is Binham Bin Talablu, Senior Director of the Iran Program at the foundation for Defense of Democracies. Binham, thank you so much for joining us.
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Benham Ben Talablu
Great to be with you. Always a pleasure.
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John Bickley
So first of all, how bad have things become on the ground in Iran these last few days as the conflict has escalated?
- [10:59]
Benham Ben Talablu
You know, this is the Middle east and in particular this is the Islamic Republic of Iran. So things can always move from bad to worse. In particular, I am very moved by an audio recording I heard that actually showcased real desperation, desperation that said someone was even willing to take a missile to their house for their family to be free, for their compatriots to be free, and for their country to be free. Unfortunately, these are the sorts of voices that get filtered out because there's an Internet blackout In Iran still 39 days, I believe, still counting. And these are the kinds of voices that traditional fixers that link up with Western mainstream media don't often quote and don't often hear. But they represent a not so silent anymore majority of Iranians who because of desperation, because of the exasperation and because of really the failed state status that the regime has already driven them to seem like they have nothing left to lose. And that's precisely why they have looked abroad for foreign military intervention. And even some of them now shrug their shoulders in the face of President Trump's commentary.
- [12:09]
John Bickley
A lot of focus has been on the impact on other countries of the Hormuz Strait being closed for so long but what about Iran? How badly has this crippled Iran's economy?
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Benham Ben Talablu
Well, Washington did issue a sanctions waiver so that the regime, which had already offloaded oil onto tankers, would be able to sell that oil. But the challenge with the Islamic Republic wasn't necessarily exporting or selling. It was repatriating revenues related to the oil trade. And that's still where major US Financial and secondary sanctions can kick in and have kicked in. But ultimately, the longer this conflict goes on, the longer the Islamic Republic is cutting off its own nose, despite its face, because this restricts not only its trade, but really other trading countries in the world that trade with Iran's biggest energy consumer, which is China.
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John Bickley
Projecting out a little bit longer term here, has the dynamic with the oil trade shifted more permanently now? Has this already affected a major global shift in where countries are going to be seeking their oil in the future?
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Benham Ben Talablu
Well, I certainly think it should, but I wouldn't say that the crisis right now is a crisis on the scale of the Arab oil boycott of 73 or the significant oil price rise that we've seen in the later 1970s as well here. This is one that is thus far limited to price. If that spills over and is expanded to supply, then I think you are going to see a lot more countries bring to the fore measures that you might be able to call draconian. And that could have long term effects for how the region exports oil, the revenues that come back to the region, and also energy diversification in parts of the world that are still very, very, very fossil fuel dependent, and particularly on those that come from the Persian Gulf. Just as a reminder, this is its only fossil fuels. It's a whole host of derivatives, it's petrochemicals, it's fertilizer, and it's even helium. And you know, countries as diverse as China, as Philippines, as Thailand, as South Korea, as Japan, rely on a different cocktail of components coming out of this part of the world. And they will be looking to diversify, but looking to diversify in a way that is economical for them. Some have made the switch to the US how stylistic versus substantive this is will be based entirely on how long the conflict goes on.
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John Bickley
So there is potential this could truly benefit the US Long term, medium to
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Benham Ben Talablu
long term for sure. And I think if any president is poised to help with the restructuring, it is the Trump administration. The challenge is how do you do that in a way? How do you build a trade relationship in a way that is productive and that doesn't ruffle more feathers? I think that the conflict has already done.
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John Bickley
So from the damage that's already been done over this last five weeks, how hampered is the region now with energy production? How long lasting are those effects? Are we going to see reduced production inevitably, no matter what happens in the coming days?
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Benham Ben Talablu
Well, some of the facilities and perhaps even more importantly, but it's a bit more boring. So it hasn't been covered. Some of the infrastructure that supports these facilities is what the regime has been targeting with drones and ballistic missiles. And it's really the things that transmit. It's really the things that compute, weigh, do the mechanics and the logistics of the energy trade that the Islamic Republic hasn't been able to blind or handicap but has increased the transaction cost, has increased the hassle factor for us. So hypothetically, the energy market isn't going to be able to snap back to pre conflict levels. In fact, infrastructurally, there's a whole host of stuff in Kuwait and Qatar that is going to have to be switched, repaired, maintained. That could go on for a few months.
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John Bickley
Benham, we thank you for lending us your expertise.
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Benham Ben Talablu
It's always a pleasure. Thank you.
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John Bickley
Another story we're tracking. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced some great news last night. American journalist Shelly Kittleson has been released. Kittleson was recently kidnapped near Baghdad by members of the terrorist group Katahib Hezbollah. In his statement, Rubio said the freeing of Kittleson, quote, reflects the Trump administration's steadfast commitment to the safety and security of American citizens no matter where they are in the world. The US Is now working to get Kittleson safely out of Iraq.
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Morning Wire Host
Thanks for waking up with us. And if you're listening, listening to the show now, you can watch for free on Daily Wire. Plus, we'll be back later this evening with more news you need to know.
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