Is The Iran Ceasefire Beginning To Crack? | 4.9.26

Summary

Morning Wire – “Is The Iran Ceasefire Beginning To Crack?”
April 9, 2026
Hosts: John Bickley & Georgia Howe
Guests: Tim Pierce, Ben Domenech, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Stephen Moore

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Episode Overview

This episode dissects the precarious state of the newly-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran, highlighting conflicting narratives, regional instability, and political/economic ramifications both domestically and abroad. Hosts Georgia Howe and John Bickley, joined by expert guests, provide listeners with the latest updates on the Middle East negotiations, US political implications, and the impact on oil markets and gas prices.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Status of the Iran Ceasefire

Timestamps: 02:33–06:30

• Persistent Violence Despite the Ceasefire:
  Though a ceasefire supposedly went into effect, both sides accuse each other of violations, particularly regarding attacks on strategic targets like the Hormuz Strait and regional proxy conflicts.

  • “There have been reports of Iranian strikes across the Middle East, in Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia says that Iran actually hit a critical pipeline...” — Tim Pierce (02:59)
  • Notable Quote: “Tehran says that the US side violated the ceasefire with Israel's continued attacks on Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. But US officials have responded that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. So it’s messy, to say the least.” — Tim Pierce (03:31)

• Disputed Terms & Iran’s Demands:
  Iran’s initial 10-point plan was considered a non-starter by the US, demanding sanctions relief, nuclear program continuation, and control of key shipping routes.

  • “Tehran’s 10 point plan for peace looked more like a Christmas wish list.” — Tim Pierce (04:19)
  • “The original 10-point plan was literally thrown in the garbage by Trump.” — (attributed through Tim Pierce to Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, 04:49)

• OUTLOOK FOR NEGOTIATIONS:
  First round of talks to be held in Islamabad, led by Vice President J.D. Vance and others.

  • “Vice President J.D. Vance will lead the U.S. delegation alongside U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.” — Tim Pierce (05:06)

• Skepticism About Lasting Peace:
  Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt argues Iran is acting deliberately to maintain leverage, and warns external powers like China may influence events.

  • Notable Quote: “I believe what we’re seeing is calculated and deliberate, not random... they’re just trying to keep everybody understanding that they’re still in a pole position.” — Gen. Kimmitt (03:57)
  • “They are diminished militarily, but only temporarily.” — Gen. Kimmitt (05:53)

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2. Domestic Political Ramifications

Timestamps: 07:32–11:44

• Political Optics for Trump:
  The ceasefire is seen as a tentative win for President Trump, especially given market reactions and the timing ahead of the summer and midterms.

  • “I think it’s a win. It’s being interpreted as a win, certainly by the markets...” — Ben Domenech (08:07)

• Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios:
  Ben Domenech outlines what success or failure might look like for the administration:

  • Best Case: Decisively degrades Iran’s military capabilities, ends regional threats.
  • Worst Case: China steps in to rehabilitate Iran, US expends unsustainable military resources.
  • Notable Quote: “They were so impressive in terms of what they achieved. But... there’s some backfill here with the US defense situation that needs to be addressed.” — Ben Domenech (09:44)

• Election-Year Dynamics:
  Republicans feeling more optimistic if the ceasefire holds and gas prices drop; Democrats had hoped for political leverage amid conflict.

  • “Republicans actually feel pretty bullish... if this deal lasts, if this ceasefire lasts, they can go into the summer with lower gas prices.” — Ben Domenech (10:52)
  • “They can start making the case about the tax refunds that everybody’s gonna be getting this month...” — Ben Domenech (11:09)

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3. Economic Impact & Oil Markets

Timestamps: 12:17–16:54

• Short-Term Relief at the Pump:
  Former Trump advisor Stephen Moore discusses potential gas price relief if the ceasefire holds and oil prices stabilize.

  • “It probably takes a week or two before we start to really feel the relief at the pump.” — Stephen Moore (12:43)
  • “The price of oil...went up from $70 a barrel to as high as $115 a barrel. Now it’s come down to around $90...by my estimate, down well below $4 a gallon.” — Stephen Moore (13:01)

• Global Oil Market Realities:
  Even as a net exporter, the US is still impacted by global oil prices due to the commodity’s global nature—though the US absorbs less shock than Europe.

  • “Oil is the ultimate global commodity...When there’s a shortage...it causes everyone’s gas prices to go up.” — Stephen Moore (13:38)

• Market Reactions to Ceasefire:
  Markets rebounded rapidly on the announcement.

  • “The immediate response was incredibly positive. You know, overnight the stock market went up by a thousand points.” — Stephen Moore (14:21)
  • “We also saw the gas price fall...That’s a pretty big drop in just, you know, a few hours.” — Stephen Moore (14:40)

• Fragility and Future Risks:
  Moore warns that Iran’s reported demand to charge a toll in the Strait of Hormuz is “ridiculous” and unsustainable for global commerce.

  • “I certainly hope Trump doesn’t agree to it.” — Stephen Moore (15:36)

• Push for US North American Energy Independence:
  Recent disruptions underscore the need for enhanced American energy security and less dependence on unstable regions.

  • Notable Quote: “We cannot view the Middle East as a reliable source...We have to produce as much domestic and energy as we can.” — Stephen Moore (16:16)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Gen. Kimmitt (ret.): “I believe what we’re seeing is calculated and deliberate, not random.” (03:57)
• Tim Pierce: “Tehran’s 10 point plan for peace looked more like a Christmas wish list.” (04:20)
• Ben Domenech: “They were so impressive in terms of what they achieved. But there’s some backfill here with the US Defense situation...” (09:44)
• Stephen Moore: “The immediate response was incredibly positive. You know, overnight the stock market went up by a thousand points.” (14:21)
• Stephen Moore: “We cannot view the Middle East as a reliable source... We have to produce as much domestic and energy as we can.” (16:16)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Status of Ceasefire & Negotiations: 02:33–06:30
• US Political Dynamics: 07:32–11:44
• Oil Market & Economic Impact: 12:17–16:54

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Final Thoughts

The episode paints a picture of a tenuous, complex ceasefire in the Middle East that reverberates through international politics, American elections, and economic realities. Listeners are left with skepticism about the long-term prospects for peace, warnings about overreliance on the Middle East for energy, and insight into how current events could shape the upcoming US midterms. The tone is urgent, fact-forward, and analytical, mirroring the hosts’ and guests’ emphasis on “the news you need to know.”

Transcript

[Georgia Howe]

If you're listening to the Daily Wire, you know how important the fight for fundamental freedoms is. We're Alliance Defending Freedom, a Christian legal ministry advancing free speech, religious freedom, the sanctity of life and parental rights. We've helped secure major victories including at the Supreme Court. And we're actively defending issues like women's sports and free expression. We rely on your support to keep going. Right now, every dollar you give will be matched. Go to joinadf.com wire or text wire to 83848 to double your impact today. The ceasefire deal remains fragile as both the US And Iran tell very different stories about what exactly was agreed upon. The Iranians originally put forward a 10 point plan that was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire executive editor John Bickley. It's Thursday, April 9th and this is is Morning Wire.

[John Bickley]

One attempt to de escalate is underway in the Middle East. Here in the US the political battle over Iran ramps up.

[Ben Domenech]

This could be a deal that maybe doesn't produce the types of outcomes, certainly not the ones that were promised by a number of different people in and around the administration.

[Georgia Howe]

And stocks rally with news of a deal. But will Americans also get relief at the gas pump?

[Stephen Moore]

Countries that are more dependent on that oil have probably seen a little bit of higher increase in price than we have here in the United States.

[John Bickley]

Thanks for waking up with MORNING wires. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.

[Georgia Howe]

I want to tell you about our friends, an alliance defending freedom and an incredible victory for free speech. The US Supreme Court recently ruled in favor of Colorado counselor Kaylee Chiles condemning the state's effort to censor viewpoints affirming biological truth in the counseling room. This win signals that the cultural tide is turning toward the truth. Now children's struggling with gender confusion have hope that they will be able to seek counseling that helps them embrace their God given identity. Thanks to faithful ministry friends who carried this case all the way to victory. ADF relies on the generous support of people like you to protect freedom in the courtroom and the culture. Go to joinadf.com wire or text wire to 83848 to have your gift to ADF matched. That's joinadf.com wire or Text wire to 83848 to double your impact for freedom.

[John Bickley]

Just two days into a two week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the two sides still appear miles apart in negotiations.

[Georgia Howe]

Daily Wire contributor Tim Pierce is here to talk about the latest on those negotiations. So Tim, it Seems like the controversy has surrounded this ceasefire agreement since the minute it was announced. Let's start with the ceasefire itself, which from the outside, it seems like there's still a lot of fighting going on for being in the middle of a ceasefire now.

[Stephen Moore]

Right.

[Tim Pierce]

It supposedly went into effect in Iran early yesterday morning, but despite that, there have been reports of Iranian strikes across the Middle east in Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia says that Iran actually hit a critical pipeline that the Saudis have used to get crude to the world market around the Hormuz Strait, which Tehran said would stay closed after the ceasefire was announced. Adding to the confusion, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said Wednesday that there are signs that the strait is open or opening. Trump said, of course, that both of those things, the strikes and the straight, were supposed to be conditions for the ceasefire to begin. Tehran says that the US Side violated the ceasefire with Israel's continued attacks on Iran's proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. But US Officials have responded that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. So it's messy, to say the least. Morning Wire talked to retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmet to sort through some of this confusion, and he said that all of this hostility and chaos is actually part of Iran's strategy.

[Stephen Moore]

I believe what we're seeing is calculated and deliberate, not random. I think they're just trying to keep everybody understanding that they're still in a pole position in all of this and they can do what they want.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, from what we've seen, there's a massive gap between what each side wants. How does the White House say they're going to reach an agreement when they're starting this far apart?

[Tim Pierce]

Yeah. From what Iran has released publicly about the negotiations, it would seem like an agreement really isn't possible. Tehran's 10 point plan for peace looked more like a Christmas wish list. It calls for all sanctions on Iran to be lifted, full Iranian control of the Hormuz Strait, continuation of its nuclear program, and more obviously, crossing a lot of Trump's red lines. But according to Levitt, the two sides are not as far apart as it seems. She says that the original 10 point plan was literally thrown in the garbage by Trump.

[Georgia Howe]

They put forward a more reasonable and entirely different and condensed plan to the President and his team. President Trump and the team determined the new modified plan was a workable basis on which to negotiate and to align it with our own 15 point proposal.

[Tim Pierce]

Levitt said that the first round of talks will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan on Saturday morning, local time. And Vice President J.D. vance will lead the U.S. delegation alongside U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

[Georgia Howe]

So we have this first round of talks coming up on Saturday. How confident are you or should we be about them being able to come to terms to end this war?

[Tim Pierce]

Well, many are skeptical. Kemet, for one, did not seem optimistic that a permanent end of the war will come out of this, and he gave us a few reasons for that. First is like we already mentioned, Iran is not behaving like a good faith operator here and has never done so in his experience with them going back decades. And then there's China, which in fact may be pulling the strings in Iran. And Kimit warned we should not underestimate the threat posed by Iran, even weakened now or how quickly it could rebound.

[Stephen Moore]

I think if nothing else, we should have learned over this weekend that they may have been reduced 90% of their military capability, but they're still capable of shooting down American airplanes. And when we try to come and rescue our pilots and putting up a pretty tough fight. So they are not defanged, they are still military capable. They are diminished militarily, but I think it's also important to say they're diminished militarily, but only temporarily.

[Tim Pierce]

So this really could just be a lull rather than a major step toward ending the war. The White House, though, remains bullish that they can get a lasting deal done.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, a lot riding on this meeting. Tim, thanks for reporting.

[Tim Pierce]

Good to be on.

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[Georgia Howe]

While the Trump administration works to maintain its tenuous ceasefire in the Middle east, the political battle stateside remains red hot.

[John Bickley]

Joining us now is Daily Wire opinion editor Ben Domenech, host of the Big Ben Show. Ben, good to have you back on.

[Ben Domenech]

Great to be with you as always.

[John Bickley]

So we have this very fragile, as Vice President Vance put it, situation with Iran. It's complicated, it's messy. And then stateside things are complicated and messy. So politically speaking here in the US Is this ceasefire so far a win for Trump a loss, or is it a draw?

[Ben Domenech]

Well, I think it's a win. It's being interpreted as a win, certainly by the markets, which I think the White House cares about the most right now, as do Capitol Hill Republicans who were getting very scared that this was going to drag on into the summer, that you were going to see people having their summer vacations affected by very high gas prices and the like. I think that this is something that still achieves 90% of what the president himself said did it within the timeframe that he said from the beginning, four to six weeks, and did so in a way that I think can allow the administration to declare victory. We'll see how much that actually lasts, though, in the long term.

[John Bickley]

Right, that 10%. The Democrats can make a lot of that. What is the best possible result here for Trump, and what's the worst possible result?

[Ben Domenech]

Sure. I think the best possible result here is that the destruction of the Iranians missile program and essentially cutting off the head of virtually everybody who was in that regime who has the ability to enrich uranium, who has the knowledge on how to target other countries effectively, to essentially turn their military into a leaderless organization to the extent it still exists. That's the best outcome that I think you could really look at here in terms of turning into something where perhaps the Iranians no longer have the ability to project power in the region in the way that they have in the past. I think the worst case scenario is one where China, which was a major part of brokering this deal, steps in and tries to help the Iranians essentially gain their footing again, help the regime regain control to the degree that they had it before, and assist them with recovering the uranium that we know is mostly buried now and inaccessible. Perhaps that's all things that are on the table. Those are possibilities. And one last thing that I think we should keep in mind is that the United States expended an enormous amount of military resources. They were so impressive in terms of what they achieved. But there's some backfill here with the US Defense situation that needs to be addressed. If that's not addressed, that could produce significant problems down the road, especially if other conflicts emerge.

[John Bickley]

Now, we've had some mixed polling over the last week, warning signs for both Republicans and Democrats. Actually, CNN really highlighting the bad news for Democrats as things stand now with Iran obviously as an X factor. Who is projecting better come the midterms in November?

[Ben Domenech]

Well, certainly you would have to say that historically Democrats are, you know, in the catbird seat. They already have written off the idea that Republicans have a chance at holding the U.S. house. And they had been hopeful in the current run up with Iran and the gas prices that we were seeing that they could even nip at the Senate. There were concerns on Capitol Hill among some Republicans about that. Instead, now I think Republicans actually feel pretty bullish. They feel like if this deal lasts, if this ceasefire lasts, they can go into the summer with lower gas prices. The market's already responding very positively. They can start making the case about the tax refunds that everybody's gonna be getting this month and that they can look at the situation going into November and start highlighting a lot of the radicalism that Democrats have been doing in states like Virginia and New Jersey and certainly in New York City, as well as being what this Democratic Party represents, not any kind of hope of occupying a moderate or centrist position.

[John Bickley]

Well, the spin has already begun on this ceasefire. We will see in the next few days which direction both parties go. But I think some of this is pretty predictable, as you've said. Ben, thank you so much for joining us.

[Ben Domenech]

Great to be with you.

[Georgia Howe]

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[John Bickley]

Americans are still feeling the economic effects of the Iran conflict, particularly at the gas station. But how long might that last?

[Georgia Howe]

Joining us now to discuss is former Trump economic advisor and co founder of Unleash Prosperity, Stephen Moore. Stephen, thanks for coming on.

[Stephen Moore]

Thank you for having me.

[Georgia Howe]

Now the first big question is when do we can we expect gas prices to come down and what factors are going to be important there?

[Stephen Moore]

Well, obviously if the price of oil comes down, then gas prices come down. It probably takes a week or two before we start to really feel the relief at the pump. The real question is whether the Iranians stick to the deal. About 25 to 30% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. So when that supply chain was blocked, it caused the price of oil to go up from $70 a barrel to as high as $115 a barrel. Now it's come down to around 90, which is still. But it's, it's going to bring the price down, by my estimate, down well below $4 a gallon. And that'll be blessed relief for people.

[Georgia Howe]

I understand Europe gets most of their gas from the Middle east, but we are mostly independent. Does the global price of oil equalize that for everyone worldwide or are we going to have better prices than Europe?

[Stephen Moore]

Well, this is a very important point. You know, we do get some Canada, Mexico and other countries, but we're a net exporter of oil. So people ask me, well then if we're not dependent on the Middle east oil, is the price going up so much here. And it's because oil is the ultimate global commodity, just like gold is a global commodity. And so when there's a shortage of oil, as there is because of the Middle east disruptions, it causes everyone's gas prices to go up. Although countries that are more dependent on that oil have probably seen a little bit of higher increase in price than we have here in the United States.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, we had a ceasefire announced late Tuesday night. What have we seen in terms of the economic response to that news?

[Stephen Moore]

Well, the immediate response was incredibly positive. You know, overnight the stock market went up by a thousand points. The Dow Jones and so we've seen about a 2 1/2 to 3% gain in 24 hours. That's pretty amazing number. And we also saw the gas price fall from it had been at, I don't know, roughly 110, and it dropped to 94. That's a pretty big drop in just, you know, a few hours. And it's because the deal was cut where the at least purportedly the Iranians agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open so that those ships can get through.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, and of course it's a very fragile truce and if the one thing markets really like is stability. So do you think that it will take a longer term pattern of stability for markets to really rebound?

[Stephen Moore]

Yes, yes, I think that's a very good point. And hopefully the good news continues to trickle in about what has actually been agreed to. And what enforcement levels there will be. Now, one of the things that concerned me about the little information that we do have so far about what's been agreed to is that the Iranians want to basically be paid a toll for any ship that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Well, that's ridiculous. I mean, it would just cause incredible disruptions to global commerce. And so we can't live with that. And I certainly hope Trump doesn't agree to it.

[Georgia Howe]

There has been some discussion about how this disruption in the Middle east could actually benefit the United States in the long term if it encourages us to up our production and perhaps incentivizes Europe to buy from us rather than buying from these unstable markets in the Middle East. Do you think that that's a likely long term outcome from this?

[Stephen Moore]

The Middle east is still an important supplier of oil globally. So at least in the short term, we're going to continue to be dependent on what happens with the Middle east with Saudi Arabia and Qatar and other countries. But I think the takeaway from this latest incident is we cannot view the Middle east as a reliable source. They're not reliable. Every five or 10 years we have one of these disruptions and it causes global economic havoc. We have to produce as much domestic and energy as we can. And let's make North America, that would be Canada, the United States and Mexico, the number one dominant region in the world for oil and gas, not the Middle East.

[Georgia Howe]

All right. Well, Steven, we're just about out of time, but thank you so much for coming on today.

[Stephen Moore]

Thank you.

[John Bickley]

Thanks for waking up with us. And for those listening to the show, you can also now watch the show free on Daily Wire. Plus, we'll be back this evening with

[Tim Pierce]

more news you need to know.