Morning Wire: "Legacy Media Claims America’s Turned on ICE. The Polling Says Otherwise"

Podcast: Morning Wire
Hosts: John Bickley & Georgia Howe
Guest: Brent Buchanan (President, Signal Polling)
Date: January 25, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines national attitudes toward ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) in the wake of recent violence in Minnesota, questioning whether legacy media's claims about a dramatic shift in public opinion are accurate. John Bickley and Georgia Howe are joined by Brent Buchanan of Signal Polling to discuss fresh polling data, the true state of public sentiment, and the strategic implications for political parties, especially as the Trump administration grapples with immigration and fraud narratives in an election year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Polling Reality vs. Media Narrative (02:24–03:51)

• Media claims suggest declining support for ICE and deportations after a high-profile incident in Minnesota.

• Brent Buchanan counters with polling data:

  • 60% of Americans still support deporting those here illegally (02:49)
  • Support for ICE-led deportations/raids went from 50% (July) to 48% (after shooting)—a statistically insignificant difference.

  "If that's a drop, it's a minor drop. I chalk it up to a margin of error." — Brent Buchanan (03:26)

• Timing matters: Poll was conducted at peak media coverage, yet support held steady.

Political Strategy amid Polarization (03:51–05:09)

• Trump administration is advised to remind voters why immigration enforcement matters.

• Immigration/border security has lost salience, possibly due to perceived progress.

  “It is imperative for the Trump team to remind people how many folks came in illegally … and what the benefits are of getting rid of them.” — Brent Buchanan (04:42)

• Keeping immigration in the news benefits Trump, but visuals are tricky.

• Buchanan argues the media highlights only selective aspects of incidents, omitting broader context.

Who Breaks the Law to Protest? Demographics & Extreme Views (05:09–06:34)

• 24% of Americans say it's okay to go "past peaceful protest" during ICE raids; 70% say it's not.
• Noted outlier: Young, liberal white women.

  “61% of this age group said that it’s okay to do this. This demographic is drastically out of touch with the rest of the country.” — Brent Buchanan (06:07)

Shifts Among Hispanic and Other Key Voters (06:34–07:48)

• Hispanic support for Trump has declined since the 2024 election, mainly for economic reasons—not strict partisan loyalty.

  “You’re renting voters, you’re not even dating them, you’re not married to them. You rented them for one election.” — Brent Buchanan (07:17)

• Republicans must build genuine relationships, focus on what communities say matters—not assume permanent realignment.

The Myth of the True Independent (07:48–08:52)

• Most “independents” are actually veiled partisans.

  “80% of them are veiled partisans. They have a red or a blue jersey on under that jacket; they just keep the jacket zipped up.” — Brent Buchanan (07:54)

• “True swing” independent voters are a small and often exaggerated category; media overstates their influence.

Economic Perceptions: Empathy Over Stats (08:52–10:22)

• Strong economic numbers alone won’t sway voters—perception and empathy matter more.
• Buchanan urges politicians to lead with empathy and address voters' felt challenges, not numbers alone.

  "When it comes to the economy, the perception is what matters, not the reality. ... They're looking for empathy." — Brent Buchanan (09:34, 09:41) “Voters will give patience if you address their perceptions of it.” — Brent Buchanan (10:15)

Fraud, Waste, and Political Opportunity (10:22–12:24)

• Multi-billion dollar fraud in Minnesota, California, and beyond is a hot topic.

• Republicans can capitalize politically by making Democrats the party “okay with fraud.”

• Fraud and misuse of public funds resonates with voters across the spectrum—especially those feeling left out.

  “That's a real opportunity for Republicans to come in and show: look, these people are benefiting. You're getting nothing from your government.” — Brent Buchanan (11:34) “Not only are you not benefiting from it, you are funding this, and that is what we're going to go stop.” — Brent Buchanan (12:16)

• Mainstream media coverage is limited, posing an uphill battle for Republicans aiming to keep this issue front and center.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On media misrepresentation:

  "If you pay attention to the mainstream media, you would think that approval ... has fallen off a cliff ... The reality is ... still 60% of people want those who are here illegally deported."
  — Brent Buchanan (02:49)

• On building coalitions:

  "You're renting voters, you're not even dating them, you're not married to them. You rented them for one election."
  — Brent Buchanan (07:17)

• On the myth of the moderate independent:

  "They have a red or a blue jersey on under that jacket; they just keep the jacket zipped up."
  — Brent Buchanan (07:54)

Important Timestamps

• 02:10 – Interview with Brent Buchanan begins
• 02:49 – Public support for deportations/ICE polling data
• 04:15 – Trump’s immigration strategy and public perception
• 05:09 – On the optics and demographics of anti-ICE protests
• 06:34 – Discussion shifts to Hispanic voters
• 07:48 – The truth about independent voters
• 08:52 – Economic concerns: stats vs. voter perception
• 10:22 – Fraud in state programs as a political lever
• 12:24 – Mainstream media’s selective coverage

Conclusion

The episode robustly debunks the narrative that Americans have turned against ICE, emphasizing that media coverage does not reflect stable public sentiment. It highlights the importance of real voter concerns (particularly economic and anti-fraud), the nuanced makeup of voter blocs, and the field of play for both major parties going into the midterms. Brent Buchanan's insights provide a reality check on polling, identity politics, and campaign messaging in a deeply divided America.