John Bickley (2:18)

Yeah.

Michael Oren (2:18)

Likewise for their part, Ukrainians have had success striking Russian oil refineries, threatening one of their top industries. So both sides benefit from the agreement. Now, there had been some optimism that Putin would be willing to sign off on a broader total ceasefire Tuesday. That obviously did not happen. But it is undoubtedly a major step in the right direction. And the White House says that it's just the start, right?

John Bickley (2:39)

Just the first step. What comes next?

Michael Oren (2:42)

Well, the Trump administration was insistent that yesterday's agreement was phase One of a broader, quote, movement to peace, which will begin immediately with further formal negotiations taking place in the Middle East. Up next, the two sides will work on a broader maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, followed by a full ceasefire across both countries. From there, quote, permanent peace will be the goal. In the meantime, as further signs of progress, the Kremlin announced that they would conduct a prisoner swap with Ukrainians later today, with 175 prisoners being released from each side. Trump, ever the businessman, relied on economic incentives to try and bring Putin to the table, essentially reminding him that a peace deal would allow Russia to reenter the global economy and shake off those crippling sanctions. But again, there is still a lot of work to be done to get Putin to sign off.

John Bickley (3:29)

Yeah, and what is that? What exactly is Putin looking for?

Michael Oren (3:32)

So the big sticking point for Russia is continued military support for Ukraine. Putin praised Trump for his, quote, noble goal of peace, but did make clear Tuesday that if he's going to agree to a ceasefire, Europe and the US Must agree to an immediate halt on weapon shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukrainians. Now, the Ukrainians have expressed opposition to those demands. They fear that the Russians could use that pause in weapon shipments to reorganize and rearm and ultimately then break the ceasefire when the Ukrainians are at their most vulnerable. But more broadly, Ukrainian President Zelensky did express support, albeit cautious support, for Tuesday's agreement. He also confirmed that his country would agree to the terms and would halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

John Bickley (4:14)

Some definite steps in the right direction right now. This all comes as a separate war between Israel and Hamas escalated over the last 48 hours. What's the latest there?

Michael Oren (4:23)

Yeah, this conflict going in the opposite direction. On Tuesday, Israel launched a series of airstrikes in Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinians. Hamas says the victims were mostly civilians, including children. Israel says they targeted terrorists. After the strike, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the that it was, quote, only the beginning and his country would continue pushing forward until Hamas has been destroyed and all of the hostages brought home. Netanyahu says that not only has Hamas failed to abide by the terms of the ceasefire, but that Israeli intelligence had proof they were regrouping and preparing new attacks on his nation. For more on the situation, we spoke with Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the US Hamas was actively recruiting, actively rearming and planning its next attacks across the border. So Israel concluded that the whole situation was untenable. And while the last thing I wanted to do was to endanger the lives of these hostages further, there was no choice but to ratchet up a military pressure on Hamas in the hope that it will actually come to the table and strike a deal. For their part, the White House stood by Israel Tuesday, saying the two countries were, quote, in lockstep and the Netanyahu had consulted with the White House before launching those strikes.

John Bickley (5:32)

Continued solidarity between the White House and Israel. Kevin, thanks so much for reporting.

Michael Oren (5:37)

Anytime.

Mark Tepper (5:41)

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Tim Pierce (6:16)

During his campaign, President Trump promised to release tens of thousands of pages of documents related to the assassination of President Kennedy. Here to tell us what we know from this latest batch of files released yesterday is Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce. So, Tim, this was a huge promise and we just got these files. What did we find?

Cabot Phillips (6:35)

Well, after waiting all day, the files finally began to appear on the National Archives website at around 6:00pm Eastern Time, and it was apparently a sprint to get them. According to ABC News, DOJ attorneys were up all night sifting through documents, examining sensitive information and making decisions on potential redactions. Trump said on Monday that about 80,000 pages of yet to be released documents on the JFK assassination would be made public. Here's Trump on Monday.

Georgia Howe (7:01)

We have tremendous amount of paper. You've got a lot of reading. I don't believe we're going to redact anything. I said just don't redact. You can't redact. But we're going to be releasing the JFK files. They've been waiting for that for decades. Then I said during the campaign, I do it and I'm a man of my word.

Cabot Phillips (7:20)

No bombshells have turned up in the files yet again. 80,000 pages is a lot to get through. There are handwritten notes, old typewritten reports, and some blurry pages. Daily Wire reporters have found some entertaining nuggets, though. One document appears to show that John F. Kennedy, Jr. Before he died in 1999, called then Senator Joe Biden a traitor. Another show that CIA Director J. Edgar Hoover was tracking a set of safes and knew their combinations that were purchased for a Soviet embassy in Cuba. Another bit told of how Gary Underhill, a former U.S. army captain in World War II, suspected a small click in the CIA was behind JFK's assassination. The document said he was afraid and that six months later he was found shot and pronounced dead by suicide. For her part, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard wrote in a post after the files released, quote, president Trump is ushering in a new era of maximum transparency. Today, JFK assassination files are being released to the public with no redactions, promises made, promises kept.

Tim Pierce (8:19)

Now, there was a lot of buildup to this for people who aren't dialed in with the conspiracy world. Why were people so interested?

Cabot Phillips (8:26)

Well, this has to be one of the most questioned events in US History. As in so many Americans either have doubts about or just don't believe the official story. And these doubts have been around for decades. Congress passed a law in 1992 to eventually release these files, in part in reaction to the amount of questions that have been raised about Kennedy's assassination. Even back then, a majority of Americans believed that Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone. Americans still do believe there is more to the story by a more than 2 to 1 margin.

Tim Pierce (8:54)

So what additional information did we get from these documents?

Cabot Phillips (8:57)

Well, it will take at least a few days for laypeople to scour the files, but experts don't expect much new information. Part of that is because some of the most interesting documents aren't public. Those include hours of taped interviews Jacqueline Kennedy and then Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy did with author William Manchester in the months after the assassination. Jackie Kennedy also wrote a series of letters to President Lyndon Johnson, including three within a week of the assassination that will also not be released. And then there's what FBI Director Cash Patel said in an interview with Glenn Beck last year after Patel revealed he has read the JFK files.

Georgia Howe (9:33)

The problem is the things that we can't release have nothing to do with the questions you guys are asking. That's about as far as I can go on it. But like the answers you guys want, you pretty much have them. There is very minimal stuff that can't be seen for things that you wouldn't even think are related to that.

Cabot Phillips (9:55)

So at least according to Patel, everyone who thinks it was a conspiracy of multiple people who assassinated JFK are likely to be disappointed with what these documents hold.

Tim Pierce (10:04)

Well, decades later, Americans still intensely interested in this. Tim, thanks for reporting.

Cabot Phillips (10:09)

Thanks for having me.

John Bickley (10:12)

After a tumultuous month for stocks and New Trump tariffs. The Fed will meet today to discuss rate changes.

Tim Pierce (10:19)

Joining us to discuss what we can expect for the economy is CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners, Mark Tepper. Mark, thanks so much for coming on.

Georgia Howe (10:27)

Thank you, Georgia. I appreciate it. Looking forward to this.

Tim Pierce (10:30)

So let's just start with some recent stock market volatility. Just in the past month there's been not a catastrophic dip, but a significant dip that's caused a lot of fear around Trump's so called trade wars. How spooked should we be about the stock market?

Georgia Howe (10:46)

Well, look, I think if you rewind back to Trump tariffs, 1.0, fourth quarter of 2018, top to bottom stocks fell about 19.9%. And right before they hit 20%, they started to reverse course. And then you Fast forward to 2019, the S&P was up around 30%. So what I would say is that when you look at what's going on with tariffs, obviously it's creating a lot of uncertainty which is causing a lot of fantastic stocks to pull back or sell off. That's presenting good buying opportunities. Because when you look at policy uncertainty, which is at its second highest level on record, second to only the lockdowns of 2020, whenever you have a policy uncertainty this high, forward looking returns in the stock market over the next three, six and 12 months are substantially above average. So look, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity. I'm trying to pick off my favorite high conviction names and add to them where appropriate.

Tim Pierce (11:51)

Now, the legacy media though has been kind of pounding this message that this is because the tariffs are bad and that it's only going to get worse. That's obviously the opposite of what we're hearing from Trump and his Treasury Secretary.

Cabot Phillips (12:03)

Yeah.

Tim Pierce (12:03)

What are your thoughts on Trump's use of tariffs and how do you expect them to impact one, the stock market and two, consumers?

Georgia Howe (12:11)

So if we look at kind of worst case scenario for tariffs, as a country, we have about $25 trillion of total personal income annually. We import about $3.3 trillion of goods. If there was a universal 25% tariff on every single good we import, that would equate to roughly a 3% income tax on the American taxpayer. Not fun, but not the end of the world. But that's only if you're looking at tariffs in a vacuum. If then you start to pair it with the other pro growth initiatives, lower taxes, less regulation, it actually seems pretty decent. And I also look at the fact that, you know, one of the latest things President Trump has talked about is potentially no tax up to $150,000 of income. He's talked about no tax on Social Security. He's talked about no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The effective tax rate for someone making 150 grand a year is 15%. Right now, their federal income tax rate, if what President Trump wants to do happens, that goes down to zero. But then there's that extra 3% from tariffs. So look, at the end of the day, I think this is actually going to be good for the economy, good for the American taxpayers, good for consumers, and ultimately beneficial for the stock market.

Tim Pierce (13:33)

Now, will there be a painful short term for citizens and consumers while the markets are getting used to what the new terrain looks like and while we're still paying down this massive debt?

Georgia Howe (13:45)

I mean, as long as the uncertainty exists, that's what is causing the most heartache right now. But what I can tell you, Georgia, is that we're not talking about demand destruction. We're just talking about a timing event whereby demand gets pushed out a quarter or two. So any of those growth initiatives that small businesses were thinking about putting in place this quarter, they still happen, but they just happen later. I would think that by Q3 of this year, you will start to see a big turnaround. I do think the economy can be on solid ground.

Tim Pierce (14:18)

Well, Mark, I hope you're right about all this. Thank you so much for coming on.

Georgia Howe (14:23)

Thanks, George. I appreciate it.

John Bickley (14:27)

Thanks for waking up with us. And if you enjoyed what you heard this morning, share this episode with a friend.

Cabot Phillips (14:35)

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