Texas Census Battle Begins & Net Migration Negative | 8.5.25

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary Episode: Texas Census Battle Begins & Net Migration Negative | 08.5.25
Release Date: August 5, 2025
Host: John Bickley & Georgia Howe

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1. Introduction

In this episode of Morning Wire, hosts John Bickley and Georgia Howe delve into two pivotal topics shaping the current American political landscape: the intense redistricting battle in Texas and the historic milestone of net negative migration under the Trump administration. Alongside these discussions, the episode also touches on significant vaccine policy reforms initiated by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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2. Texas Redistricting Battle

a. Democrats Flee Texas Amid Redistricting Efforts

Georgia Howe opens the discussion by highlighting the exodus of Texas Democrats from the state due to an escalating redistricting conflict poised to influence Congressional control.

"Texas Democrats flee the state amid a redistricting battle that could determine who controls Congress." [00:34]

b. Accusations of Forfeiting Legislative Duties

John Bickley criticizes the Democrats, asserting their departure equates to forfeiting their legislative responsibilities.

"I believe they have forfeited their seats in the state legislature because they're not doing the job they were elected to do." [00:39]

c. Legislative Actions and Legal Threats

Tim Pierce provides a detailed account of the unfolding events, noting that Texas Democrats fled to Illinois to avoid being compelled to vote on the new district maps. Governor Greg Abbott has threatened felony charges against these legislators if they attempt to return without complying.

"Governor Greg Abbott appeared on Fox News yesterday morning and threatened to have those Democrats charged with felonies." [02:45]

John Bickley further elaborates on the severity of the situation, mentioning that Democrat legislators may face bribery charges—a second-degree felony in Texas—due to allegations of seeking or offering money to evade legislative duties.

"They face a possibility of facing bribery charges, which is a second degree felony in the state of Texas." [03:10]

d. Republican Response and Potential Legal Battles

The Republicans in the Texas House swiftly moved to authorize law enforcement to apprehend the absent Democrats, although jurisdictional limitations prevent actions outside the state. Democratic leader Gene Wu has publicly condemned the measures from Illinois, aligning with Governor Pritzker.

"A Cabot so walk us through these numbers and we'll talk about the significance of them afterwards. What are we looking at here?" [08:19]

e. Broader Implications for Redistricting Across States

Georgia Howe inquires about the redistricting efforts beyond Texas. Tim Pierce explains that while several states are involved, Texas remains the focal point due to its potential to shift Congressional power dynamics.

"Most net job growth under Trump has taken place among native born Americans." [10:47]

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3. National Redistricting Efforts by the GOP

a. Republican Strategies in Other States

Tim Pierce outlines the GOP's strategic moves in states like Ohio, Missouri, and Florida to redraw congressional maps favoring Republicans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is particularly interested in initiating a new census to potentially reallocate seats from Democratic-leaning states like California to Republican strongholds.

"Perhaps more importantly, DeSantis wants the 2020 census redone. He believes that would have a huge impact on moving seats from blue states to red states." [05:54]

b. Impact on House Control

John Bickley speculates that successful redistricting and a revised census could solidify Republican control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

"The bottom line is that if the GOP is able to succeed with redistricting and a new census, it's hard to imagine that Republicans don't keep control of the House during the midterms." [06:47]

Georgia Howe highlights the significance of such a win for President Trump’s administration.

"That would be a big win for President Trump. Tim, thanks for reporting." [06:56]

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4. Net Negative Migration Under the Trump Administration

a. Historic Decline in Immigration

Cabot Phillips introduces the discussion on the Trump administration achieving a net negative migration milestone—the first in half a century. Tim Pierce elaborates on the factors contributing to this decline.

"The Trump administration is on its way to a massive milestone net negative migration." [00:59]

Pierce notes a near 95% reduction in border crossings since Trump's inauguration, alongside unprecedented deportation numbers and incentives for self-deportation.

"Border crossings are down nearly 95% since Trump took office, and month after month we've seen a record low for attempted border crossings." [09:13]

b. Implications and Diverse Perspectives

The episode explores varying viewpoints on the impact of reduced immigration. Proponents argue it prioritizes American jobs and wages, while critics fear it may lead to inflation and labor shortages.

"Supporters of the crackdown though, say the first step to fixing our immigration system is first cutting off the flow, dealing with those who are here illegally..." [10:16]

c. State-Level Immigration Reforms

Tim Pierce discusses Republican-led initiatives in several states to restrict education benefits for illegal immigrant students, citing Texas's removal of the DREAM Act as a primary example.

"Under pressure from the Trump administration, Republicans in a number of states are working to roll back education benefits for illegal immigrant students." [11:17]

d. Economic and Workforce Impact

The conversation touches on the decline of the foreign-born workforce and the rise in job growth among native-born Americans, emphasizing the administration's narrative of leveraging reduced immigration to bolster the domestic labor market.

"All net job growth under Trump has taken place among native born Americans." [10:47]

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5. RFK Jr.’s Vaccine Policy Reforms

a. Removal of Thimerosal from Vaccines

Georgia Howe transitions to discuss Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s significant move to eliminate thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative, from all flu vaccines in the U.S. This decision aligns with Kennedy's stance on mercury as a neurotoxin.

"RFK Jr. Has made a number of vaccine related moves in the past few weeks, including removing a mercury based Ingredient from US Vaccines." [11:59]

b. Controversies Surrounding ACIP Reforms

Amanda Presto Giacomo details the controversies stemming from the overhaul of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). By excluding members from major medical organizations, Kennedy faces backlash from established medical communities.

"Kennedy is not allowing personnel from some major medical groups like the American Academy of Pediatrics... to sit in and other input during ACIP meetings." [14:24]

c. Vaccine Injury Compensation Program Overhaul

Kennedy advocates for significant reforms to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, aiming to expedite and expand compensation for those alleging vaccine-induced injuries, including those from COVID-19 vaccines.

"What we're going to try to do is to make sure that the parents who do get injured get compensation, that they get it very quickly..." [15:18]

d. Push for Vaccine Mandate Exemptions

Addressing vaccine mandates in schools, Kennedy pushes for universal religious and medical exemptions, challenging the stance of organizations like the AMA and AAP, which seek to eliminate such exemptions.

"Kennedy wants religious and medical exemptions in every state. Meanwhile, medical organizations... have called for every state to ban religious exemptions." [15:32]

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6. Conclusion

Morning Wire delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current political maneuvers surrounding redistricting in Texas and other states, the unprecedented decline in U.S. immigration figures, and substantial shifts in vaccine policy under RFK Jr.'s leadership. These discussions underscore the dynamic interplay between legislative strategies, administrative reforms, and their broader societal implications as the nation approaches critical midterm elections.

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For listeners seeking in-depth coverage on politics, culture, education, and more, Morning Wire by The Daily Wire continues to provide the essential facts and insightful analysis needed to stay informed.

Transcript

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[Georgia Howe]

Texas Democrats flee the state amid a redistricting battle that could determine who controls Congress.

[John Bickley]

I believe they have forfeited their seats in the state legislature because they're not doing the job they were elected to do.

[Georgia Howe]

I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley. It's Tuesday, August 5th, and this is Morning Wire.

[Cabot Phillips]

The Trump administration is on its way to a massive milestone net negative migration.

[Tim Pierce]

For the first time in half a century.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

And as you know, in last month, zero people came into our country illegally.

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

Zero.

[Georgia Howe]

And Robert Kennedy Jr. Bans the use of a mercury based preservative in vaccines.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

It's therefore inexcusable that these agencies allowed neurotoxic mercury to be injected into Americans for so long.

[Cabot Phillips]

Thanks for waking up with Morning Walk Wire.

[Tim Pierce]

Stay tuned.

[Cabot Phillips]

We have the news you need to know.

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[Tim Pierce]

Wire.

[Cabot Phillips]

The redistricting battle exploded in Texas this week as Republicans look to gain a few more seats in the US House.

[Georgia Howe]

Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce is here to talk about the redistricting efforts ahead of the midterm elections. So, Tim, where is this redistricting happening?

[Tim Pierce]

Yeah, there are a handful of states, but Texas is the big one. And this one has sparked a huge fight from Texas Democrats, dozens of whom fled the state over the weekend in a long shot bid to kill or at least delay a new district map. They had to flee because otherwise Texas authorities could have rounded them up and forced them to the state Capitol to vote on this. Governor Greg Abbott appeared on Fox News yesterday morning and threatened to have those Democrats charged with felonies.

[John Bickley]

The reports are these legislators have been both they sought money and they offered money to skip the vote to leave the legislature to take a legislative act that would be bribery. Based upon comments made by legislators themselves. They face a possibility of facing bribery charges, which is a second degree felony in the state of Texas.

[Tim Pierce]

Abbott gave them until the start of the legislative session yesterday to come back, a deadline the rogue Democrats ignored. Republicans in the state House were ready. They immediately passed a motion directing law enforcement to bring the Democrats back to arrest them even if necessary. Of course, that order can't be enforced out of state. Democratic state Congressman Gene Wu, who chairs the Democratic caucus in the Texas state House, gave a press conference from Illinois alongside Governor Pritzker.

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[John Bickley]

We're here to demand, to demand an end to this corrupt process.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

They refuse because their loyalty and fealty to Donald Trump overrides all other interests.

[Tim Pierce]

Abbott has also said that he thinks these Democrats not only could face felony bribery charges, but he thinks that they could lose their House seats as well. Expect all of this to be challenged in court if it makes it that far.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, how are Democrats responding outside of Texas?

[Tim Pierce]

Democratic governors have said that they will counter Texas's efforts by redrawing districts in their own states. But it's more difficult in Democratic states. That's because districts have already been gerrymandered to maximize Democrat seats. Take a look at Illinois's map, for example. It's full of strange S curves and the state's 13th district in particular is just a thin line that stretches across half the state. But they're not giving up. Here's New York Governor Kathy Hochul.

[Georgia Howe]

The Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage. Then they're leaving us no choice. We must do the Same. That's why I'm exploring with our leaders every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible.

[Tim Pierce]

The problem in New York, though, is that the last time Democrats tried to gerrymander the state, the map was shot down on the courts. They were still able to pass a less radical version later in 2024, but. But that still took two swing districts and made them favor Democrats. There's also another problem with many Democrat led states. Their redistricting decisions are made by commissions independent of the state government. That's a problem in California, and Governor Gavin Newsom and other state leaders are trying to figure out a way to work around the commission or get rid of it entirely. But even then, California's map heavily favors Democrats. They hold 43 of the state's 52 seats already now.

[Georgia Howe]

Where else are Republicans trying to redistrict to get more seats?

[Tim Pierce]

GOP controlled Ohio must redraw its map ahead of midterms by law. Missouri is also another state that Republicans are looking at to gain another seat or 2. And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is looking at redistricting as well. But Perhaps more importantly, DeSantis wants the 2020 census redone. He believes that would have a huge impact on moving seats from blue states to red states. Here's DeSantis last week.

[John Bickley]

They should do it and count people that are legally allowed to be here. How many seats would California lose if you only counted lawful people citizens? They would lose a lot of seats because they're a sanctuary state that is ultimately going to be resolved by the U.S. supreme Court. Because I do think the Trump administration is going to put in for a census that is not going to count foreign nationals, that is just going to count U.S. citizens. And that's really the way that I think that's what the Founding Fathers intended.

[Tim Pierce]

The bottom line is that if the GOP is able to succeed with redistricting and a new census, it's hard to imagine that Republicans don't keep control of the House during the midterms.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, that would be a big win for President Trump. Tim, thanks for reporting.

[Tim Pierce]

Good to be on.

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[Georgia Howe]

Amid record deportations and a border crackdown, the US is on pace to experience negative migration for the first time in half a century.

[Cabot Phillips]

Daily Wire Senior editor Cabot Phillips is here to break it all down for us. A Cabot so walk us through these numbers and we'll talk about the significance of them afterwards. What are we looking at here?

[I]

Yeah, just a stunning turnaround taking place here regarding immigration. It's no secret we saw a historic influx of immigration, both legal and especially illegal, under President Biden. We'll never know the true number as an untold number of illegal immigrants came across the border undetected. But based on the rough estimates, anywhere from 16 to 25 million people came into the US from 2020-24. That means at the very least, one in every 17 people living in America right now came here in the last four years. Could be closer to one in every 15 though. For context. Last year 84% of the US population growth came from immigration as opposed to new births here in the country. President Trump campaigned on a promise to reverse that trend, and since taking office he has done just that, making border security his top priority. And the numbers prove it.

[Cabot Phillips]

Yeah, right. Some really head turning statistics now. What are we looking at? We're six months in.

[Tim Pierce]

How does it look?

[I]

So net migration, both legal and illegal, has fallen at a rapid historic pace. Border crossings are down nearly 95% since Trump took office, and month after month we've seen a record low for attempted border crossings. So that's playing a major factor here. Beyond that are the deportations. The DHS says they've removed more than a quarter million illegal immigrants in the last six months. That is well below their target goal of 1 million a year, but still a major increase compared to Biden. The Trump administration is also offering flight stipends and other incentives for those looking to self deport again, it's unclear just how many people have taken those offers, but the estimates are anywhere from the tens of thousands to even the hundreds of thousands. And then there is legal migration, which is also on the decline as Trump has slashed work permits, visas and other avenues of legal entry. Put all of that together and the United States is set to see more people immigrate out of the country than into it. That would be the first year of negative net migration in at least five decades, could be the first year ever. We don't have reliable records prior to the 60s.

[Cabot Phillips]

So what are the implications of this? What are the impacts this could have on the country?

[I]

Well, really, it depends on who you ask. Pro immigration advocates on the left say that negative migration is going to stoke inflation, it's going to drive decreased tax revenue and lead to labor shortages. Supporters of the crackdown though, say the first step to fixing our immigration system is first cutting off the flow, dealing with those who are here illegally, and then deciding who we're going to allow in moving forward. They argue that less immigration will open up more jobs for Americans and force many employers to raise wages given that they can no longer rely on off the books migrant labor. To that point, a White House spokesman noted that 1 in 10 young Americans are neither employed or in school and that, quote, there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force. And it's worth noting, since March, the foreign born workforce has declined by more than a million people in the US and as we've discussed, all net job growth under Trump has taken place among native born Americans.

[Cabot Phillips]

Right. You mentioned that stat yesterday. A very significant development there. Now shifting gears to the state level, there are some state level immigration actions that are taking place. What's happening there?

[I]

Yeah. Under pressure from the Trump administration, Republicans in a number of states are working to roll back education benefits for illegal immigrant students. At the moment, 24 states offer in state tuition rates for illegal immigrants. But now there's a GOP led push to make them pay out of state or even international rates instead. That would double the cost. In June, for example, with the help of the DOJ, Texas removed their so called DREAM act which for 24 years had given legal students in state benefits. Similar efforts are now underway in Kentucky and Minnesota. The Trump DOJ says in state tuition is meant to benefit American citizens, not those living here illegally.

[Cabot Phillips]

So Texas coming up once again today. Kevin, thanks so much for reporting.

[I]

Absolutely.

[Cabot Phillips]

RFK Jr. Has made a number of vaccine related moves in the past few weeks, including removing a mercury based Ingredient from US Vaccines.

[Georgia Howe]

Here with more is Daily Wire reporter Amanda Presto Giacomo. So, Amanda, what exactly did Kennedy order regarding vaccines and why?

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

Yeah, so Kennedy ordered the removal of thimerosal from all flu vaccines distributed in the U.S. now, those were the last remaining U.S. vaccines with that mercury based ingredient. Thimerosal has been somewhat controversial. It's been phased out of most European vaccines and Kennedy has repeatedly called it a neurotoxin. Now, RFK made this decision based on a recommendation from acip. That's a CDC vaccine panel that Kennedy gutted back in June and he filled with his own appointees. The panel recommended that children, pregnant women and adults should receive only a single dose thimerosal free flu shot. When he adopted that recommendation, Kennedy said that our most vulnerable populations shouldn't be exposed to mercury when it's avoidable. Here's RFK just a few days ago on this issue.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

2017 study by CDC links miscarriage to flu vaccines and found that the odds of having a miscarriage within 28 days were 7.7 times greater than in women who did not receive a flu shot during pregnancy. Another study published that same year in the Journal of the American Medical association found an elevated risk of autism spectrum disorders in children whose mothers had received a first trimester flu shot.

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

We should also note that acep that vaccine panel, it's again sparking some outrage from the mainstream media. And this time it's because Kennedy is not allowing personnel from some major medical groups like the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American College of Physicians and the American Medical association to sit in and other input during ACIP meetings. Kennedy, though, he stands by that and he says that's actually a feature of some of these reforms. A statement from HHS put it this way. Under the old ACIP, outside pressure to align with Vaccine Orthodoxy Ltd. Asking the hard questions, the old ACIP members were plagued with conflicts of interest, influence and bias. The department said that experts will continue to be included, but that's going to be based on relevant experience and expertise, not because of what organization they belong to.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, there's also been some talk that Kennedy is eyeing reforms to better protect Americans who've been injured by vaccines. What's the latest there?

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

Yeah, so Kennedy really wants to overhaul the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. That's a federal program that's designed to compensate people who say they've been injured by vaccines. It's sometimes referred to as vaccine court. Kennedy thinks that this system is biased against Americans who are claiming these injuries. He says the cases are often slow walked. And the statute of limitations can really hurt people who develop or maybe piece together an injury years later. Also, this is key. Kennedy wants to expand the program to include potential injuries from COVID vaccines. Currently, those injuries are designated to a different program that critics say has too many conflicts of interest. Here's RFK discussing these coming reforms.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

What we're going to try to do is to make sure that the parents who do get injured get compensation, that they get it very quickly and they get it without the kind of adversarial impediments that have now been erected over the past 40 years.

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

Kennedy has also said that schools are effectively forcing parents to have their children get every vaccine, even ones they might be medically advised against getting or had past bad experiences with. Now, to that point about vaccine mandates in schools, Kennedy wants religious and medical exemptions in every state. Meanwhile, medical organizations that Kennedy has a lot of friction with, like the AMA and AAP and a lot of others, they've called for every state to ban religious exemptions. The AAP actually just recently renewed those calls.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, that's chilling. Amanda, thanks for reporting.

[Amanda Presto Giacomo]

You're welcome.

[Cabot Phillips]

Thanks for waking up with us. And if you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to like and subscribe. We'll be back this evening with more.

[Tim Pierce]

News you need to know.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

These are questions that take cultures thousands of years to answer. During Answer the Call, I take questions from people just like you about their problems, opportunities, challenges, or when they simply need advice.

[Tim Pierce]

How do I balance all of this grief, responsiveness? How do you repair this kind of damage?

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

My daughter Michaela guides the conversations as we hopefully help people navigate their lives. Everyone has their own destiny. Everyone.