Morning Wire Summary: The New Battleground: U.S. vs. China in Africa | January 4, 2025

In this special edition of Morning Wire, Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief John Bickley and co-host Georgia Howe delve into the escalating competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa. Featuring insights from Amaka Onku, head of Eurasia Group's Africa practice, the episode examines recent developments, strategic initiatives, and the future landscape of U.S.-Africa relations.

Biden’s Pioneering Visit to Angola and U.S. Aid Commitment

John Bickley kicks off the discussion by highlighting President Joe Biden's landmark visit to Angola—the first by a sitting U.S. president. During this visit, Biden announced a substantial commitment of over $1 billion in U.S. assistance aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and countering China's expanding footprint in the region.

John Bickley [00:03]: "President Biden recently became the first sitting president to visit Angola, Africa. While there, the president promised more than $1 billion in US assistance, aiming to strengthen relations in the region and combat China's presence there."

China’s Strategic Maneuvering in Africa: The Belt and Road Initiative

Amaka Onku provides an in-depth analysis of China's longstanding and strategic engagement in Africa, primarily through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). She outlines how China's policy since the early 2000s has focused on infrastructure development in exchange for resources, particularly oil. This approach has been largely welcomed by African nations seeking substantial infrastructure investments, a contrast to the more micro-focused funding from Western partners.

Amaka Onku [01:04]: "China has had an Africa policy, a very kind of clear strategic policy, I would say, since the early 2000s... They wanted to build bridges, roads, and sell lots of goods and services."

Onku emphasizes that while projects like the Nairobi to Mombasa Chinese-financed train have been beneficial as economic connectors, there are criticisms regarding their high costs and instances of incomplete or inefficient projects due to corruption and mismanagement.

Amaka Onku [03:22]: "It's a mixed bag, frankly... In some cases where there was a lot of leakages, collusion between African officials and the Chinese counterparts."

U.S. Assistance Through USAID and Strategic Allocations

Transitioning to the U.S. role, Onku examines the $1 billion aid package announced by Biden, noting that approximately $800 million is channeled through USAID, focusing on areas such as healthcare, education, and community development. She points out the challenges in distinguishing new initiatives from existing programs, rendering the true impact of such announcements sometimes unclear.

Amaka Onku [06:42]: "A lot of it is healthcare, education, and then there's some like community promotion type stuff... It's often very hard to figure out what is already existing programs and what is new."

Debt Dynamics: Debunking the Chinese Debt Trap Narrative

A significant portion of the discussion addresses the debt concerns associated with Chinese financing. Onku clarifies a common misconception by stating that while China is a major bilateral lender, the majority of African nations' debts are owed to multilateral agencies and commercial debtors like Eurobonds.

Amaka Onku [05:07]: "Most debts owed by African countries is actually owed to multilateral agencies and commercial debtors like euro bonds... it's not the case that most debts owed by these countries is owed to China."

The Crucial Role of Rare Earth Minerals

The conversation shifts to the strategic importance of rare earth minerals essential for modern technologies like semiconductors and electric vehicles. Onku underscores how both the U.S. and China prioritize securing access to these critical resources in Africa, viewing them as vital for national security and economic competitiveness.

Amaka Onku [07:58]: "This is an extremely important part of the calculation for both China and the US in securing access to those critical minerals."

Continuity and Adaptation Across U.S. Administrations

Looking ahead, Onku assesses the potential impact of the upcoming Trump administration on U.S. Africa policy. She argues that there is a bipartisan consensus on shifting focus towards trade and investment, mirroring China's infrastructure-driven approach. This continuity suggests that the newly promised aid to Angola is unlikely to be reversed under the Trump administration.

Amaka Onku [08:36]: "I don't see a shift because this is something that both sides can really agree on."

Future of Western and G7 Engagement in Africa

Onku explores the future role of Western nations and G7 countries in Africa, highlighting initiatives like the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure. She notes current challenges, such as anti-French sentiment in francophone Africa and Russia's attempts to fill the void left by France's retreat, posing new dynamics for U.S. engagement.

Amaka Onku [10:41]: "There's a transition period right now... there's a lot of moving parts to watch in terms of what the future relationship looks like."

Russia’s Limited Influence in Africa

Addressing geopolitical rivals, Onku discusses Russia's influence in Africa, concluding that it is significantly less impactful than perceived. While Russia maintains some historical goodwill, particularly in South Africa, its overall economic and infrastructural contributions are minimal. Online disinformation remains its primary tool, confined mostly to failed or small states with limited regional impact.

Amaka Onku [12:05]: "Russia's influence is a lot less than meets the eye... They don't have a lot of money and have a lot of resources... it's only in failed states."

Key Takeaways and Looking Ahead

In concluding the episode, Onku emphasizes the need for the U.S. to balance value promotion with tangible economic support. She advocates for ensuring that democracy and economic policies translate into concrete public goods like infrastructure and job creation, maintaining the appeal of democratic systems in Africa.

Amaka Onku [14:07]: "It's not just value promoting, but actually putting your money where your mouth is to make sure that those systems deliver concrete public goods to their citizens."

Conclusion

Morning Wire provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategic competition between the U.S. and China in Africa. Through expert insights, the episode underscores the complexities of international aid, the significance of economic investments, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. As the U.S. continues to navigate its foreign policy in Africa, the emphasis on sustainable development and genuine partnerships remains paramount in countering China's influence and fostering long-term stability in the region.