Morning Wire Podcast Summary Episode: The Threats We Face & How We Win
Release Date: August 10, 2025
Host: John Bickley
Guest: Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery

Introduction

In this episode of Morning Wire, John Bickley engages in a comprehensive discussion with retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. The conversation centers on the escalating threats posed by Communist China, the United States' defense policies, and strategic support for allies such as Taiwan and Ukraine.

China’s Leverage Through Critical Mineral Restrictions

Timestamp: [01:31 - 02:44]

Rear Admiral Montgomery sheds light on China's strategic move to limit the supply of critical minerals essential for Western defense industries. He explains:

“These are serious. I mean, this is a serious leverage play by China to probably to get us to adjust our export controls on them.” ([01:42])

Key Points:

• Dependency on Chinese Minerals: The U.S. defense sector relies heavily on Chinese-supplied materials, including magnets for the F35 and components for Aegis radars.
• Impact on Defense Production: These restrictions could hinder the U.S. ability to produce and deploy advanced weapon systems.
• Strategic Response: Establishing access to Chinese markets and developing domestic sources for critical minerals is imperative to mitigate this dependency.

Strategies to Reduce Dependence on China

Timestamp: [02:44 - 04:38]

Montgomery discusses the necessity of aggressive industrial policies to counteract China’s leverage:

“It starts with aggressive industrial policy. What I mean by that is what we saw recently with the Department of Defense purchasing a, a producer, a mineral...” ([02:52])

Key Points:

• Government Intervention: The Department of Defense's investment in mineral producers ensures a stable market and encourages private sector investment.
• Leveling the Playing Field: By guaranteeing fixed, reasonable prices, the U.S. can attract investors away from China-dominated markets.
• Long-Term Strategy: Repeating this approach across multiple sectors will secure the defense industrial base.

Insights from Taiwan: Strengthening Alliances

Timestamp: [04:38 - 07:03]

Rear Admiral Montgomery shares his experiences from recent meetings in Taiwan, highlighting the island's reliance on U.S. support.

“They’re very appreciative of the United States. They understand the United States is their key ally.” ([05:04])

Key Points:

• Defense Spending Commitment: Taiwan is increasing its defense budget from 2.5% to 3%, with plans to reach 5%.
• Challenges in U.S. Military Sales: Delays in delivering critical weaponry like Javelin and Stinger missiles undermine Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
• Societal Resilience: Beyond military preparedness, Taiwan must bolster its societal and economic resilience against non-military Chinese aggression.

Barriers in U.S. Foreign Military Sales

Timestamp: [07:03 - 09:23]

Montgomery criticizes the bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Department of Defense and Department of State that delay military sales.

“Our foreign military sales program is a dumpster fire and as a result we don’t deliver weapons.” ([06:00])

Key Points:

• Prolonged Delivery Times: Critical weapons systems face delays of up to nine years, far exceeding reasonable timeframes.
• Administrative Obstacles: The lack of streamlined processes hampers timely support to allies.
• Call for Reform: The Trump administration and Congress are urged to overhaul these bureaucratic hurdles to facilitate quicker military support.

Proactive U.S. Policy: Supporting Taiwan and Ukraine

Timestamp: [09:23 - 11:05]

The discussion extends to parallels between supporting Ukraine and Taiwan, emphasizing the need for proactive U.S. policies.

“We need to prioritize which weapon systems and then make the investments and reap the rewards.” ([10:58])

Key Points:

• Integrated Support for Allies: Similar strategies should be applied to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, ensuring they receive the necessary military aid.
• Investment in Critical Systems: High production rates for systems like Patriot air defense and AMRAAM missiles are essential.
• Economic and Military Synergy: Enhancing defense capabilities through strategic investments will bolster allies' resilience.

Deterring Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan

Timestamp: [11:05 - 15:28]

Montgomery outlines a three-pronged approach to deter potential Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.

“We have to look at it in, in three different bins.” ([11:05])

Key Points:

1. Enhancing Taiwan’s Resilience:

   • Military Strength: Equipping Taiwan with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, air defense systems, and cyber defenses.
   • Societal Infrastructure: Improving communication systems, energy reliability, and financial security.

2. Strengthening U.S. Military Capabilities:

   • Force Readiness: Ensuring the U.S. has sufficient submarines, strike aircraft, and unmanned drones.

3. Seamless Military Cooperation:

   • Interoperability: Transitioning from de-conflicted to fully integrated military exercises between the U.S. and Taiwan.
   • Regular Joint Exercises: Conducting routine, joint operations to ensure preparedness without provocative intent.

“That is a policy that needs to be tossed out.” ([15:28])

Sanctions on Russia and Their Impact on China

Timestamp: [15:28 - 19:49]

The conversation shifts to the intersection of Russian and Chinese economies and the role of sanctions.

“If we can cut off the fossil fuels, we'll cut off the funds to pay for defense.” ([16:15])

Key Points:

• Current Sanctions: Existing laws empower the President to penalize countries receiving Russian fossil fuels.
• Economic Impact on China and India: Effective enforcement would restrict access to discounted Russian energy, hampering their economic growth.
• Strategic Advantage: Reducing Russia’s financial resources could weaken Putin’s military capabilities.

Strategic Concerns for the U.S.

Timestamp: [19:49 - 20:02]

In his final remarks, Montgomery expresses his primary concerns regarding global security.

“The biggest risk is an overstretched poop.” ([17:35])

Key Points:

• Russia’s Internal Stability: Potential domestic issues within Russia could destabilize Putin’s regime.
• Future of U.S.-Russia Relations: Unresolved tensions may lead to unpredictable actions from both nations.
• Vulnerability to Extreme Reactions: Concerns over how Putin might respond to further challenges to his legitimacy.

Conclusion

Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery provides a nuanced analysis of the multifaceted threats facing the United States and its allies. Emphasizing the need for strategic investment, streamlined military support, and robust alliances, the discussion underscores the complexity of modern geopolitical challenges. The episode concludes with a call to action for decisive policy reforms and enhanced international cooperation to safeguard democratic values and maintain global stability.

Notable Quotes:

• “We need to prioritize which weapon systems and then make the investments and reap the rewards.” – Mark Montgomery [10:58]
• “You cannot, countries cannot rely on us for timely delivery of weapons if it takes, you know, five, seven, nine years to get weapons to them.” – Mark Montgomery [07:22]
• “That is a policy that needs to be tossed out.” – Mark Montgomery [15:28]

This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners and non-listeners alike.