Transgender Issue Unites Voters Ahead of Midterms | 4.13.25

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary: Transgender Issue Unites Voters Ahead of Midterms | April 13, 2025

In the April 13, 2025 episode of Morning Wire titled "Transgender Issue Unites Voters Ahead of Midterms," hosts Georgia Howe and John Bickley delve into the pivotal role the transgender issue plays in shaping voter behavior ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The episode features Terry Schilling, President of the American Principles Project, who presents compelling data from a recent poll highlighting significant public opposition to federal funding for transgender-related medical procedures.

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Introduction to the Poll and Its Significance

Georgia Howe opens the discussion by introducing Terry Schilling and the focus of the episode: a new poll conducted by the American Principles Project evaluating American attitudes towards transgender ideology and federal expenditure on transgender healthcare.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [01:18]: "A whopping 65% of America does not want federal tax dollars to be going towards any type of transition surgeries or hormone treatments at all."

Schilling explains that the poll aimed to assess whether Americans support or oppose federal funding for transgender surgeries and hormone treatments. The results indicate a substantial 65% opposition to using taxpayer money for these procedures, underscoring a significant deterrent for Democratic support.

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Implications for Federal Funding and Political Strategy

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of the poll for political strategy, particularly for the Democratic Party. Schilling emphasizes the financial dimension, noting that the transgender industry is a lucrative $4.5 billion sector. He warns that profits from this industry are funneled back into lobbying, legislation, and public relations campaigns aimed at ingraining transgender ideology in society.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [02:03]: "We want to protect children. We want to protect parental rights. We call ourselves the NRA, but for families."

Schilling advocates for cutting federal expenditures on transgender-related surgeries and hormone treatments, arguing that this financial reprioritization would protect children and uphold parental rights. He frames the American Principles Project as a defender of the traditional family structure, seeking to defund what he describes as an agenda pushing transgenderism on children through various institutions.

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Public Exposure and Growing Opposition

Georgia Howe inquires about the effectiveness of lobbying efforts and the resulting trends in public opinion. Schilling responds by highlighting a paradox: increased exposure to transgender ideology actually fuels greater opposition among Americans.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [03:07]: "The more that Americans are exposed to transgender ideology... the more they oppose it."

He cites the significant rise in public support for policies like President Trump’s 2024 executive order protecting girls' sports, which saw approval jump from 67% to over 78%. This surge demonstrates that active political measures against transgender inclusion in certain areas resonate strongly with the electorate.

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Bipartisan Opposition and Potential Voter Shift

The poll reveals that opposition to federally funded transgender procedures spans across party lines, with 42% of Democrats and 43% of Kamala Harris voters opposing such funding. Howe probes whether this bipartisan sentiment could influence voter behavior in the midterms.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [04:00]: "This issue will continue to shift voters to the Republican side by a three to seven point margin, depending on the race."

Schilling asserts that the transgender issue has the potential to sway a significant portion of voters towards the Republican Party. He believes that unless the issue is actively addressed, it will continue to erode Democratic support, as voters prioritize fiscal responsibility and opposition to what they perceive as excessive governmental intervention in personal matters.

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Evolving Attitudes Towards Transitioning for Adults and Children

The discussion turns to whether public sentiment is changing regarding gender transitioning for adults, a shift from earlier attitudes that were more permissive towards adult autonomy in these decisions.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [06:05]: "Americans are sick and tired of hearing about it nonstop... the American people are rejecting it."

Schilling contends that the persistent and pervasive promotion of transgender ideology has led to growing fatigue and rejection among Americans. While acknowledging some autonomy for adults, he emphasizes that the core issue remains the opposition to taxpayer-funded support for transitions, reflecting a broader desire to limit government involvement in personal healthcare decisions.

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Political Moderation and Future Prospects

Georgia Howe raises the topic of political moderation within the Democratic Party, referencing Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent stance on excluding men from girls' sports as a potential pivot to align with voter sentiments.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [07:02]: "Democrats are in a difficult spot... they have to choose between their base and the swing voters."

Schilling advises that Democrats need to moderate their positions on transgender issues to retain swing voters without alienating their core base. He suggests that demonstrating responsiveness to public opposition by scaling back federal funding for transgender procedures could mitigate political fallout and prevent a significant voter shift toward the Republican side.

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Conclusion: The Transgender Issue as a Decisive Electoral Factor

As the episode concludes, Howe and Schilling summarize the critical role the transgender issue plays in the upcoming elections. Schilling reiterates the importance of defunding transgender-related medical procedures to align with majority public opinion and secure necessary fiscal resources for other essential services.

Notable Quote:

Terry Schilling [08:11]: "Let's start cutting this extraneous stuff now, like sex changes for kids, like sex changes for adults, so that we can have enough resources to take care of those that really need the help, like our seniors and like our veterans."

The episode underscores that addressing the transgender issue proactively could be pivotal in influencing voter behavior and determining the balance of power in the midterm elections. Howe and Schilling close by highlighting the ongoing strategic efforts to shape public policy in line with prevailing voter attitudes, setting the stage for a highly contested electoral landscape.

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Key Takeaways:

• Public Opposition: A significant majority of Americans oppose federal funding for transgender surgeries and hormone treatments, with 65% against such expenditures.

• Political Impact: The transgender issue is identified as a critical factor that could sway 3-7% of voters towards the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms.

• Bipartisan Sentiment: Opposition spans across party lines, including a notable percentage of Democrats and Kamala Harris voters.

• Strategic Moderation: Democrats may need to moderate their stance on transgender issues to retain swing voters and prevent further erosion of their electoral base.

• Long-Term Implications: Addressing or continuing to confront the transgender issue will significantly influence future legislative priorities and party strategies.

Morning Wire provides a comprehensive analysis of how the transgender issue is shaping the political terrain, emphasizing its potential to unify voters and impact the upcoming midterm elections decisively.

Transcript

[Terry Schilling]

A new poll suggests the transgender issue continues to be a liability for Democrats.

[Georgia Howe]

In this episode, we speak to the pollster tracking the issue about how much of a swing this one issue could have in 2026. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor in chief John Bickley. It's Sunday, April 13th, and this is Morning Wire. Joining us to discuss the new poll is Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles.

[John Bickley]

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[Georgia Howe]

Terry, thanks so much for coming on.

[Terry Schilling]

Thanks for having me. I'm excited to be here.

[Georgia Howe]

So I want to discuss this poll that you just did with your organization, American Principles Project. You commissioned this. Looking forward to the 2026 midterms. Can you tell me a little bit about the poll and what you were looking to learn?

[Terry Schilling]

Yeah. So we wanted to find out where Americans are at in the debate over transgender ideology, especially when it comes to federal government spending. We wanted to see if Americans want more spending or if they don't want any spending at all. And what we found was that a whopping 65% of America does not want federal tax dollars to be going towards any type of transition surgeries or hormone treatments at all. In fact, when they find out that a politician that represents them supports taxpayer funding of these gender transition surgeries, even for children or adults, that they're much less likely to support them, even 52% less likely to support them.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, what's the goal of the American Principles Project and how are you intending to use this data?

[Terry Schilling]

Well, we want to protect children. We want to protect parental rights. We call ourselves the nra, but for families. And we want to be the special interest arm of the American family. And so what we're hoping to do is cut all of these federal expenditures that are pushing transgenderism on our children, both in schools, but also most directly in hospitals and in surgery centers. We did a whole study on the transgender industry as a whole, and this is just surgeries and hormone treatments. And right now it's a four and a half billion dollar industry. And what's dangerous about that is that they are taking the profits from that four and a half billion and they're reinvesting it in lobbying and legislation and PR campaigns. And they're using this to get to our kids hearts and minds. So we want to protect our children. And right now, the best opportunity to do that is to defund all of these transition related surgeries and hormone treatments that the federal taxpayers have been funding.

[Georgia Howe]

Now you mentioned that they're taking these billions and putting them back into lobbying. Has that dovetailed with an increase in support for their cause? Or what are we seeing in terms of trends of how Americans feel about the transgender issue?

[Terry Schilling]

Well, what's interesting is that the more that Americans are exposed to transgender ideology, more specifically the transgender industry's agenda, the more they oppose it. In fact, prior to this last election in 2024, according to CNN's polling, 67% of Americans didn't want men in girls sports. But you fast forward to the day that President Trump signed his executive order into law to protect girls sports, and that had jumped up to over 78% of Americans wanting men out of girls sports. So the more that America is exposed to the transgender industry's agenda for them, the more they oppose it.

[Georgia Howe]

In the cross tabs, you can find that 42% of Democrats and 43% of Kamala Harris voters also agree that tax dollars should not be spent on gender transitions. Do you think that this is a weighty enough issue though for them to reconsider their vote?

[Terry Schilling]

There are already several Democrats who are publicly entertaining the idea of moderating on the issue of transgenderism for their party, specifically when it comes to sports. Gavin Newsom did an interview with Charlie Kirk just a few weeks ago where he advocated for getting men out of girls sports. See what happens. You know, I, I'm not very hopeful or optimistic that he'll actually do anything about it, but I do think that Democrats are understanding the political moment that they're in and the political avalanche that they're about to suffer if they keep pushing these policy agendas so hard on the American people.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, when Trump won the White House in November, this did rank surprisingly high as an issue. Obviously it wasn't top one or two, but we did learn from various studies that it did sway some of those middle voters. Do you think that it's maintained that level of interest for voters or do you think it's falling in the rankings in terms of how important this is for people?

[Terry Schilling]

So it's important for your viewers to understand that as Important as these issues are, they still only work on the margin. And it just depends on how big that margin is. Since we've been measuring it, the margin of shifting in the electorate on this issue is between 3 and 7%. 7% being very, very high and very impactful. That's a lot of voters that are switching to join the Republican side of things. I think that this issue, until it's solved, until we've taken care of it for the American people, it will continue to shift voters to the Republican side by a three to seven point margin, depending on the race, which is quite sizable. I mean, this is anti biology, anti truth. The agenda that's coming from the transgender industry and from the left. And so I think that it'll always be powerful and move people to the good side. It's just a matter of how hot the issues are.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, you mentioned that voters oppose spending tax dollars on transitions for both minors and adult. I know maybe 10 years ago, when this issue first came into the fray, people mostly said, just let adults do what they want. And you even saw some of that attitude towards children. Do you think, or is there evidence that people are souring on the concept of transitioning, even for people over 18?

[Terry Schilling]

Yeah, so there's some souring over that. I think it's the broader agenda. Overall. I think Americans are sick and tired of hearing about it nonstop. I think this agenda is very much overrepresented, and it's in much lower demand than what the supply is, and that's what the American people are rejecting. But the polling has been pretty consistent regarding surgeries and hormone treatments. The American people want to protect children, and mostly they want to defer things to the adults to make their own decisions. But when it comes to taxpayer funding, that's a whole other realm of issues. Americans don't want to participate in this. And if you want to get these surgeries, well, fine, but you at least have to pay for it yourself.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, you brought up Gavin Newsom, who recently pivoted on this issue. I think a lot of people are watching him with the suspicion that he's making a play for a presidential run in the future. Do you think that the smart Democrat move is to differentiate on this issue? And if he did that, do you think he'd have a chance?

[Terry Schilling]

I think it's a very smart move for any Democrat to start moderating on this issue very early on. They are in a difficult spot, though, because they have to choose between their base and the swing voters. The swing voters don't want this transgender industry or its agenda, but the base of the Democratic party, it's the 20 to 30% base of the party. They have been radicalized on this largely because of the Democrats rhetoric on this. They have made this transgender issue an issue of life and death. They've created hysteria over it. And so they need to start walking this back. They need to start toning down the fires at a minimum. We did the poll because we wanted to show members of Congress on both the left and the right that Americans want this stuff defunded. They don't want their tax dollars going to it. We work very hard for our money. And the last thing that we want to be paying for are sex changes for anyone, adults, but especially children. And so it's a very big important thing that if we have $36 trillion of debt, rather than having to force ourselves to cut Social Security or Medicare someday, let's start cutting this extraneous stuff now, like sex changes for kids, like sex changes for adults, so that we can have enough resources to take care of those that really need the help, like our seniors and like our veterans.

[Georgia Howe]

All right. Well, it's going to be very interesting to see how Democrats thread this needle going forward in 2026 and beyond. Terry, thank you so much for coming on.

[Terry Schilling]

Anytime. Thank you so much.

[Georgia Howe]

That was Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project. And this has been a weekend edition of MORNING Wire.