Morning Wire – October 31, 2025

Episode: Trump’s Asia Victory & South America’s Right Turn
Hosts: John Bickley & Georgia Howe
Notable Guests: Cabot Phillips, Jenny Tar, Andres Martinez Fernandez

Overview

This episode focuses on two major international stories:

1. President Trump’s high-stakes diplomatic breakthrough with President Xi Jinping, leading to new US-China trade agreements and reduced tensions.
2. The fast-moving political rightward turn in South America as administrations in Argentina, Bolivia, and other countries align more closely with US interests under Trump, examined with a particular focus on recent elections.

Additional topics include the Trump administration’s clampdown on commercial licenses for illegal immigrants following deadly truck accidents.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Asia Victory: US-China Trade Thaw

The Summit with Xi Jinping

• Duration & Tone: The meeting between Trump and Xi lasted 90 minutes—shorter than expected, but “all smiles” emerged. Xi described the mood as “warm,” and Trump called it “an amazing meeting.”
  (03:02–03:36)
• Quote (Trump):
  “Overall, I guess on the scale of from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12.”
  – Donald Trump (03:29)

Key Outcomes from the Talks

• Fentanyl Tariff Reduction:
  Trump stated that Xi had agreed to actively curb fentanyl exports to the US, leading Trump to immediately halve the fentanyl-specific tariff from 20% to 10%.
  Quote (Trump):
  “Based on his statements today, I reduced it by 10%. So it’s 10% instead of 40%, effective immediately. I believe he’s going to work very hard to stop the debt that’s coming in.”
  – Donald Trump (04:00)
• Energy & Agriculture Commitments:
  China has committed to “purchase American energy, potentially oil and gas from Alaska,” aiming to wean itself from Russian oil and boost US exports. Additionally, China agreed to buy large amounts of US soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products.
  Trump’s message to US farmers:
  “Go out and immediately buy more land and large tractors.”
• Rare Earth Minerals:
  China will resume the sale of rare earth minerals, vital for tech production, which was a priority for the White House.
  Quote (Trump):
  “All of the rare earth has been settled … There’s no roadblock at all on rare earth. That will hopefully disappear from our vocabulary for a little while.”
  – Donald Trump (05:04)
• Trade Barriers Eased:
  Overall tariff rates on Chinese goods will decrease from 57% to 47%. Threatened escalations above 100% were averted. Port fees impacting cross-Pacific cargo vessels have also been removed.

Market & Economic Impact

• Stock Markets:
  Since the initial imposition of “Liberation Day” tariffs in spring, US indices have soared:
  • Dow Jones: +13%
  • S&P 500: +21%
  • NASDAQ: +35%
    (06:01)
• Federal Reserve:
  Lowered its benchmark rate to between 3.75 and 4%, the lowest in three years, which is expected to further stimulate the rally and foreign investment.

Diplomatic Next Steps

• Trump will travel to Beijing in April; Xi may visit the US or Mar-a-Lago, indicating a “reset” in relations.

2. Trucking Tragedies: Illegal Immigrant CDL Crackdown

Background of Issue

• Multiple fatal truck crashes involving drivers with illegal immigration status and commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) have triggered public outcry and policy changes, especially after a viral video from Florida. (07:40–09:49)

Legislative and Enforcement Failures

• Under the Biden administration, illegal immigrants, upon applying for asylum, had a six-month window before work permit eligibility, making it possible for them to obtain CDLs in states like California.
• Federal rules require English-language tests; however, written CDL tests may be administered in other languages, and skills testing enforcement in English has reportedly “not been enforced for years.”

Trump Administration Response

• Policy Changes:
  • Barring illegal immigrants and all non-English speakers from obtaining CDLs, except for legal immigrants like green card or specialized visa holders.
  • States instructed to audit CDL records; illegal immigrant license holders are being ordered to turn in their CDLs.
• Enforcement Actions:
  • ICE agents increasing roadside checks in states like Oklahoma and Indiana, resulting in dozens of arrests of illegal immigrant truck drivers.
  • Potential threats: Citing possible links between illegal truckers and national security threats, including terrorism.
  • Quote (Jenny Tar, reporting ICE perspective):
    “The head of ICE said on Thursday that there could be a nexus to terrorism with some of these drivers.”
    – Jenny Tar (11:24)

Human Impact

• The case of six-year-old Delilah Coleman, gravely injured in California by a truck driven by an illegal immigrant, puts a human face on the crisis.
  • Quote (Marcus Coleman, Delilah’s father):
    “Governor Newsom needs to stand up and be responsible for his constituents instead of sitting there throwing the blame on everybody else.”
    – Marcus Coleman (11:09)

3. South America’s Right Turn: The Trump Administration's Influence

Argentina’s Landslide: Javier Milei and the Pro-US Realignment

• Significance:
  Javier Milei’s party secured a landslide victory, consolidating a rightward shift after decades of leftist, anti-American leadership.
  • Quote (Andres Martinez Fernandez):
    “As far as relations with the United States, we’ve likely never had a more aligned leader in Argentina.”
    – Andres Martinez Fernandez (12:47)
• Role of US Support:
  A $40 billion US package just ahead of elections was pivotal in providing economic stability and confidence, directly credited to the White House and Donald Trump.
  • Quote (Andres Martinez Fernandez):
    “President Trump deserves a lot of credit for the victory … [The package was] a major sign of confidence … which I think translated into more confidence from Argentines in the President’s ability to stabilize the economy and chart a path forward.”
    – (13:59)

Bolivia’s Conservative Breakthrough & Regional Trends

• Bolivia elected its first conservative president in 20 years; this shift signals a broader trend across Latin America, with conservative momentum seen in Ecuador, and right-wing parties gaining in Chile, Brazil, and Peru.
  • Quote:
    “The shift in Bolivia specifically is historic. … The people just overwhelmingly, despite all that, rejected that movement and now have a more conservative leader … also shifting towards the United States and Western alliances.”
    – Andres Martinez Fernandez (15:04)
• US Policy’s Role:
  Trump administration’s active engagement with these new conservative leaders is credited for cementing alliances and encouraging continued regional political change.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump rating the Xi meeting:
  “On a scale of from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12.”
  (Donald Trump, 03:29)

• On rare earth minerals:
  “There's no roadblock at all on rare earth. That will hopefully disappear from our vocabulary for a little while.”
  (Donald Trump, 05:04)

• On potential security threats from illegal truckers:
  “We don’t know what they’re carrying across state lines in an 18 wheeler. Terrorists will stop at nothing to harm the United States.”
  (Georgia Howe, 11:45)

• On South American politics:
  “We’ve likely never had a more aligned leader in Argentina.”
  (Andres Martinez Fernandez, 12:47)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Trump-Xi summit recap & results: 02:39–07:02
• Illegal immigrant truckers controversy: 07:40–12:05
• South America’s right turn: 12:08–16:38

Conclusion

This episode of Morning Wire is a thorough, urgent exploration of US international relationships entering a new phase—Trump’s diplomatic gamble with China is paying financial and strategic dividends, while his administration’s pro-right, pro-market approach is reshaping South America’s political landscape. Domestically, enhanced restrictions on commercial licenses for illegal immigrants signal a renewed focus on border integrity and public safety. Economic optimism is in the air, but the show underscores the careful monitoring required as reforms are enacted and new alliances build.