Trump’s Economy Pays Dividends & SCOTUS Weighs Women’s Sports | 1.13.26

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump’s Economy Pays Dividends & SCOTUS Weighs Women’s Sports
Hosts: John Bickley & Georgia Howe
Date: January 13, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Morning Wire explores three main issues shaping public discourse in the U.S.: the Trump administration's economic turnaround and related political turmoil, Supreme Court cases on gender and women’s sports, and a massive fraud scandal in Minnesota tied to ongoing protests and concerns about state governance. The hosts provide timely political and economic analysis, alongside interviews with reporters and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Economic Turnaround: Surging GDP, Falling Gas Prices, and Mortgage Relief

Key Segments: 02:50–06:56

• Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations:

  • One year after President Trump's return, the administration reports a strong economic rebound.
  • GDP growth data has surprised analysts:
    • Q1 2025: GDP contracted by 0.5%, raising recession fears.
    • Q2 2025: Rebounded to +3.8%.
    • Q3 2025: Increased to 4.3%.
    • Q4 2025 (Fed projection): 5.1%—an “astonishing” rate.
  • Quote:

    "Right now I’m looking at the output numbers, and we got GDP now north of 5% in the fourth quarter..."
    —White House economist Kevin Hassett, cited by John Bickley (04:01)

• Positive Consumer Signals:

  • Gas prices fall for the 7th week; national average is $2.79/gallon, lowest in more than five years.
    • 19 states below $2/gallon.
  • Mortgage rates now under 6% for the first time in nearly three years; rent prices decreasing for five straight months.
    • Trump’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200B in mortgage-backed securities credited for this relief.

• Inflation & Rate Cuts:

  • Inflation trending lower; if upcoming numbers confirm under-3% levels, more Fed rate cuts in 2026 are likely.

• Federal Reserve Drama & Jerome Powell Investigation:

  • DOJ is investigating Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over headquarters renovations and possible congressional testimony discrepancies.
  • Powell claims political targeting:

    "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president."
    —Jerome Powell (05:58)

  • Trump denies involvement, White House says DOJ will determine criminality.
    • Quote:

      "One thing for sure, the president's made it quite clear is Jerome Powell is bad at his job."
      —Press Secretary Caroline Levitt (06:31)

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2. Supreme Court—Women’s Sports, Gender Identity, and State Authority

Key Segments: 07:59–12:13

• What’s at Stake:

  • SCOTUS hears two cases (from West Virginia and Idaho) challenging whether states can ban biological males from competing in women’s sports.
  • The consolidated cases question whether policies violate Title IX and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.

• Legal Arguments:

  • Supporters argue Title IX was meant to guarantee fair opportunities for women, not extend to “gender identity.”
  • Opponents (plaintiffs, Biden administration) argue Title IX’s anti-discrimination should include gender identity.

• Stakeholder Perspective:

  • Alliance Defending Freedom's Kristen Wagoner says the ruling could have a broad impact on women’s rights and competitive fairness.

    “The issue that will be before the court is whether states have the right to…equal opportunities under federal law and…fair play and privacy.”
    —Kristen Wagoner, paraphrased by Megan Basham (08:22–09:30)

• Female Athlete Testimony:

  • Madison Kenyon, former runner, describes psychological and physical disadvantages when forced to compete against biological males:

    “Running is a mental sport. If you think you’ve lost before you start, then you have.”
    —Madison Kenyon (11:30) “[Competing against biological males] ruins the integrity of women’s sports, and it’s not fair.”
    —Madison Kenyon (11:38)

• Potential Outcomes:

  • If states lose: Similar protections for women in 27 states could be invalidated.
  • If states win: States have clear legal authority to restrict participation based on biological sex.
    • Implications extend beyond sports.

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3. Fraud Scandal and ICE Protests in Minnesota

Key Segments: 12:53–17:20

• Context:

  • Minneapolis faces mass protests and federal probes into large-scale fraud.
  • Tensions rise between city/state officials and federal authorities, especially ICE.

• Governor Pawlenty Interview:

  • On ICE Operations:

    • Pawlenty calls demands for ICE to leave “ridiculous,” blaming local officials for sanctuary policies that compromise safety.

      “…The idea that they’re supposed to just abdicate a big piece of territory in the United States is ridiculous.”
      —Tim Pawlenty (13:31)

    • Lack of coordination creates “a terrible formula and set of dynamics on the ground.”

  • On the Fraud Investigation:

    • Ongoing federal probe, begun under the Biden administration, could expose up to $9B in fraud—possibly the largest theft of public funds in U.S. history.
    • Claims longstanding warnings were ignored by Minnesota officials.

      “…The warning signs and the paper trail…go back years. And so we had a number of key leaders…sleeping at the switch or worse.”
      —Tim Pawlenty (14:23)

  • On Governor Walz’s Culpability:

    • Cites reports that the Walz administration ignored fraud warnings.
    • Notes bureaucratic obfuscation dating back to 2018.

  • On Motive:

    • No evidence has surfaced of officials personally profiting.
    • Points to political considerations—reluctance to act against members of the Somali community, a key Democratic constituency, out of fear of appearing discriminatory.

      “We shouldn’t stigmatize people because they belong to a particular racial or religious group, but we also should [not] look the other way…”
      —Tim Pawlenty (16:20)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• John Bickley (on Trump’s economic policies):

  “…Trump policies are really working.” (04:09)

• Jerome Powell (on the investigation):

  “…The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public…” (05:58)

• Kristen Wagoner (on women’s sports):

  “The question before the court is, can the states make biological distinctions on the athletic field? Are those differences important, and do they matter?” (09:34)

• Madison Kenyon (on fairness in sports):

  “Running is a mental sport. If you think you’ve lost before you start, then you have.” (11:30)

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Key Timestamps

• Trump’s economic turnaround: 02:50–06:56
• Fed Chair Powell investigation: 05:14–06:53
• SCOTUS women’s sports cases: 07:59–12:13
• Minnesota fraud and protests, Pawlenty interview: 12:53–17:20

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains a brisk and factual tone, characteristic of Morning Wire, focusing on providing “the news you need to know” with minimal editorializing. Interviews are straightforward, and the language is accessible for a wide audience interested in current events, politics, economics, and cultural debates.

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Transcript

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[Georgia Howe]

Gas prices and mortgage rates drop while the GDP surges In just one short.

[Host/Anchor]

Year, President Trump has delivered historic economic.

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Turnaround to put our country back on.

[Host/Anchor]

The path to prosperity.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

The Trump administration touts the President's policies while also launching a probe into Jerome Powell.

[John Bickley]

This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.

[Georgia Howe]

I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley. It's Tuesday, January 13th and this is Morning Wire.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

The Supreme Court takes up the issue of men competing in women's sports, addressing the question, can states ban it?

[John Bickley]

We are fighting for the bare minimum here.

[Megan Basham]

The bare minimum. Can we, as women, call ourselves champions?

[Georgia Howe]

And as the turmoil in Minnesota continues between anti ice protests and the massive fraud scandal, we speak to the former governor who calls it a reckoning for the state.

[John Bickley]

Something like 67% of Minnesotans do not feel that Governor Walz did enough to foresee and prevent the fraud.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.

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[Guest Host/Interviewer]

One year after retaking the presidency, the White House says Donald Trump's economic and domestic agenda is starting to pay off.

[Georgia Howe]

Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips is here to break down some of the latest numbers that are pretty exciting for the American people. So, Cabot, where do you want to start?

[Host/Anchor]

Well, President Trump has urged patience with the American people since winning re election, telling folks that his agenda would take time to start paying off. And based on some of the latest numbers that are starting to roll in that prediction, it looks accurate. So let's start with GDP growth. When President Trump launched his trade war, the consensus among most economists and also a lot of Democratic lawmakers was that it would tank the economy and really stall GDP growth. But each month, the data continues to defy those expectations. So at the beginning of 2025, the US GDP shrank by half a percentage point, really setting off alarm bells across Washington that a recession was looming. But quarter two then saw 3.8% growth. By quarter three, it was up to 4.3%. And based on the latest projections from the Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta, GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 will be a stunning 5.1%. White House economist Kevin Hassett was jubilant at that news. Here he is taking a victory lap on Monday.

[John Bickley]

Right now I'm looking at the output numbers, and we got GDP now north of 5% in the fourth quarter after.

[Host/Anchor]

2.4Percent the previous quarter.

[John Bickley]

So I think you got to say that Trump policies are really working.

[Host/Anchor]

And from there, there's plenty of other good stuff to go on. On Monday, for example, gas prices fell for the seventh straight week. The average price at the pump is now $2.79. That is the lowest mark we've seen in more than five years. And in 19 states, Americans are paying less than $2 a gallon. Unfortunately not here in Tennessee, but they're moving in the right direction.

[John Bickley]

Now.

[Host/Anchor]

On the housing front, mortgage rates just fell below 6% for the first time in nearly three years, while the cost of rent nationwide has now fallen five months in a row. That comes after the president directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage backed securities, driving those interest rates even lower. And then you have inflation, which has undoubtedly been heading in the right direction over the last few months. The Labor Department will release their latest numbers for December, showing where we are later this morning. And if those rates hold steady below 3% in the 2.5, 2.8 range, there is a Very good chance that we'll see further rate cuts from the Fed in 2026, which obviously would provide even more relief for American consumers and borrowers.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, those rate cuts, though, are in the hands of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has found himself in the headlines this week. What's going on with him?

[Host/Anchor]

Yeah, as we've discussed quite a bit on this show, President Trump has made no secret of his disdain for Powell, who he has accused of intentionally keeping interest rates high to harm him politically. And now that feud has escalated as Powell is under federal investigation by the doj. So the investigation centers on a renovation of the Fed's headquarters in Washington, which has gone well over budget and cost taxpayers more than two and a half billion dollars. Trump administration is digging now to find out whether Powell lied to Congress under oath when asked about the cost of the project. And in response, he issued a video statement claiming he was being targeted politically over disagreements with Donald Trump.

[John Bickley]

This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.

[Host/Anchor]

Now, for his part, President Trump denied that the investigation was politically motivated. He said that he, quote, didn't know anything about the probe. Here's White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt elaborating on Monday.

[Megan Basham]

One thing for sure, the president's made it quite clear is Jerome Powell is bad at his job. As for whether or not Jerome Powell is a criminal, that's an answer the Department of Justice is going to have to find out. And it looks like they intend to find that out.

[Host/Anchor]

Now, remember, Jerome Powell's term is set to expire in May, regardless of the findings of this investigation. But he could be forced out even sooner, depending on what the DOJ discovers.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, regardless, a lot of good news for everyday Americans. Cabot, thanks for reporting.

[Host/Anchor]

Absolutely.

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[Guest Host/Interviewer]

The Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments today in two high stakes cases that could have sweeping consequences for women's sports and state authority.

[Georgia Howe]

Joining us with the details is Daily Wire Culture reporter Megan Basham. So Megan, we've been closely tracking these particular cases after the high court agreed to take them on. But can you just remind us what exactly, exactly are these cases about and what's at stake here?

[Megan Basham]

Yeah, Georgia. So these are two paired cases out of West Virginia and Idaho. And what they center on is whether states can enforce laws that keep biological males out of women's sports. So in Idaho's Little v. Hickox, Lindsay Hickox, who is a man who identifies as a woman, is challenging Idaho's Fairness in Women's Sports act that bans biological men from participating in women's athletic events. In the West Virginia case, a male middle school athlete known as BPJ is asking the court to invalidate a similar law. So the court consolidated these two cases because they raise nearly identical legal questions. And Kristen Wagoner, who is the president and CEO of Alliance Defending Freedom, is helping to defend these states laws and she says the impact that the court's ruling can have here on women will be enormous. The issue that will be before the court is whether states have the right to make legitimate biological differences and, and particularly in athletics as a start, whether we have the right to equal opportunities under federal law and the right to fair play and privacy.

[Georgia Howe]

Now what are the legal arguments that the court is expected to hear on each side?

[Megan Basham]

Yeah, so there's two major claims that this is going to be turning on. The first involves Title nine, and that's a federal law that was passed more than 50 years ago to guarantee equal educational opportunities for women, including athletics and sports. So supporters of these state laws argue that Title 9 was designed to protect, not to erase sex based distinctions. But first, the Biden administration and now the plaintiffs in these two cases argue that the sex discrimination that Title 9 bands should also include, quote, unquote, gender identity. So they say that these laws conflict with Title 9. And then the second argument setters on the 14th Amendment's equal protection clause. Here's what Wagoner said. The question before the court is, can the states make biological distinctions on the athletic field? Are those differences important, and do they matter? And the question is, obviously, yes. Common sense tells us that, but so does the science. And again, this isn't just theoretical Georgia. These real female athletes from both states are arguing that they have lost podium spots, championships, and even scholarship opportunities. And Data from the UN does show that men have won nearly 900 women's medals globally.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, what about science and what it tells us about sex differences? Are we expecting to hear arguments along those lines?

[Megan Basham]

Yes, absolutely we are. So Madison Kenyon is petitioning the court in this Idaho case. She's a former runner who we also spoke to who competed against a biological male early in her college career. And she stresses that sports opened a lot of doors for her educationally in her career, and she really wants to ensure that future generations of women have access to these same opportunities. She says that the physical differences between her and her male competitors were undeniable, overwhelming and demoralizing.

[Georgia Howe]

Running is a mental sport. If you think you've lost before you start, then you have.

[Megan Basham]

And so to step on the line.

[John Bickley]

With a male athlete in the women's.

[Megan Basham]

Division of running, it's deflating, it's defeating. It ruins the integrity of women's sports, and it's not fair.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, what are the potential outcomes from a ruling here? What sort of downstream effects will it have?

[Megan Basham]

Yeah. So if the court rules against these two states, it could invalidate protections for women with similar laws at the state level in 27 different states. But a win for them will affirm that states do have the right to enact these laws. And certainly I think that the implications will go far beyond sports.

[Georgia Howe]

Well, we are going to continue to monitor here on this show. Megan, thanks for reporting.

[Megan Basham]

Yeah, my pleasure.

[Georgia Howe]

And for those who haven't listened yet, you can also hear more from both Maddie and Kristen Wagner in an episode we aired on Sunday.

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[Georgia Howe]

The protests gripping Minneapolis over the last few days have come amid federal investigations into wide scale fraud, which President Trump is now sending in even more agents to investigate.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty joins us now to discuss the issues gripping his state. Governor, first of all, thank you so much for coming on the show.

[John Bickley]

Happy to do it. Good to be with you.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

First, let's talk about the immediate context of the protests that we've seen over the last few days. The mayor of Minneapolis has told ICE to get out of the state. In less kind words than that, Governor Walls has demanded that the administration leave Minnesota alone. What is your take on the presence of ICE in the state?

[John Bickley]

Well, ICE has a duty to fulfill and that is the enforcement of our immigrations and customs and border laws in this country. We're a nation on the rule of law. So the idea that they're supposed to just abdicate a big piece of territory in the United States is ridiculous. And one of the reasons that this became so dangerous is because, stupidly, the city of Minneapolis and the state of Minnesota declared themselves sanctuary cities. So the local officials with their usual capabilities don't protect the ICE officers with perimeters, other reinforcements. And so ICE is sort of out there by themselves. And it is a terrible formula and set of dynamics on the ground preceding.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

This fallout from the ICE incident. The state has become a national focus over these new revelations about really jaw dropping levels of fraud. Are things as bad as they seem in the state with the fraud situation?

[John Bickley]

Yes. And the nonpartisan U.S. attorney's office in Minneapolis, by the way, beginning their investigations under a Democratic administration. The Biden administration recently said that this could tally up to $9 billion or more. And if that turns out to be true, this could be the largest theft or fraud of public money in the history of our country. So it is a big deal. It's a huge deal. And sadly, the warning signs and the paper trail going back trying to alert leaders about lack of financial controls and the likelihood of fraud go back years. And so we had a number of key leaders and people in the bureaucracy sleeping at the switch or worse.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

Yeah. Speaking of that, you're a former governor of the state, obviously, as someone who knows the ins and outs of that office, how likely is it that Governor Walz knew something about this fraud before it really became public?

[John Bickley]

Well, what we do know for sure is that the paper trail goes back years. And you had, for example, the nonpartisan, well regarded legislative auditor in Minnesota say that they felt that the Walz administration had a, quote, unquote, shoot the messenger mentality. We had another instance going all the way back to 2018 where our Bureau of Criminal Apprehension was investigating an earlier version of child care fraud. And they ceased the investigation, investigation because the bureaucrats involved wouldn't help them, wouldn't provide information that they had requested. And they wrote up in their report that those people refused to comply. The bureaucrats refused to comply because they didn't want to, quote, unquote, enable or be a tool of law enforcement. I mean, can you imagine the mindset, the culture, the rot inside of government when you have a mid level bureaucrat being able to stiff arm a criminal investigation over public fraud?

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

That's alarming indeed. In terms of motive for covering up things like this, is there a profit motive for political leaders or is it all about reelection?

[John Bickley]

Well, so far there has been no credible allegation or evidence that a public official pocketed money. But there's lots of other people who pocketed money affiliated with nonprofits, leaders of nonprofits, founders of nonprofits. Over 90 people criminally charged so far, with many more to come, presumably. But beyond that, I think there's another motive going on that's political, which is, look, we shouldn't stigmatize people because they belong to a particular racial or religious group, but we also should look the other way or excuse behavior that's criminal or inappropriate because somebody's in such a group. And there are allegations here that people in state government were slow to respond or look the other way because these were folks from the Somali community, which is a big political constituency for Democrats in our state. And they also didn't want to be perceived as being, you know, racist or discriminatory. And so I think some of that was going on as well.

[Guest Host/Interviewer]

Yeah, it certainly appears so. Governor Pawlenty, thank you so much for joining us.

[John Bickley]

Happy to do it. Thank you.

[Georgia Howe]

Thanks for waking up with us. And for those of you listening to the show now, you can watch for free on Daily Wire. Plus, we'll be back later this evening with more news you need to know.

[Host/Anchor]

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