Why the Left is Losing Ground | 6.15.25

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary
Episode: "Why the Left is Losing Ground"
Release Date: June 15, 2025

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Introduction

In the June 15, 2025 episode of Morning Wire, Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief John Bickley and co-host Georgia Howe delve into the shifting political landscape in the United States, focusing on the decline of the Democratic Party and the rising momentum of President Donald Trump. Featuring insights from Brent Buchanan, founder and president of Signal Polling Group, the discussion explores the erosion of Democratic support among key demographics, the impact of cultural wars, and Trump's economic policies.

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Democratic Party's Decline

Brent Buchanan opens the conversation by addressing the Democratic Party's significant struggles in maintaining its traditional voter base. He states, "They're definitely in trouble. And we've been tracking this almost weekly since Trump became president. And they've really cratered in their image." (02:41)

Buchanan points out that core constituencies, including Hispanic and Black voters, as well as young women, are increasingly disassociating from the party. The Democratic messaging, predominantly centered around opposition to Trump, has failed to resonate, leaving the party "backing themselves into these tinier and tinier corners" with an unclear and fragmented message.

Fragmentation Among Democratic Leaders

The lack of a unified leadership within the Democratic Party exacerbates its woes. Buchanan remarks, "We've asked a couple times, who do you think the head of the Democratic Party is?... nobody gets above, like, 25%. So it's so clear that they're fragmented, not just on their message, but on their messengers." (03:42)

This fragmentation is further complicated by internal competition for the 2028 presidential nomination, preventing the party from coalescing around a single, coherent message. The diverse ambitions of multiple potential candidates hinder the development of a unified strategy, making it difficult for the Democrats to present a strong front to voters.

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Shifting Voter Demographics: Young Males and Beyond

A significant theme of the episode is the departure of young male voters from the Democratic Party. Buchanan explains, "Among young voters, it is young males moving fastest. And what's really interesting is it's non-white young males that have been moving to the right culturally." (06:22)

He attributes this shift to the Democratic Party's stance on cultural issues, which alienates voters who feel their concerns are overlooked. Buchanan draws parallels to European politics, suggesting that cultural shifts observed globally are beginning to influence American voters, particularly younger demographics facing economic uncertainties.

Economic and Cultural Drivers

The migration of young males is driven by a combination of economic concerns and cultural disillusionment. Buchanan notes, "What we're seeing is that it's both. And so the economic issues really opened up these, you know, working class voters, younger male voters..." (08:22)

He emphasizes that cultural issues often serve as proxies for broader sentiments about radicalism within the Democratic Party. Voters may not base their decisions solely on single issues like sports policies but view them as indicators of the party's overall direction and alignment with their values.

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President Trump's Rising Approval

Despite initial dips typical of early presidential terms, President Trump has seen a resurgence in approval ratings, particularly regarding economic performance. Buchanan highlights, "His strongest issue is still by far, illegal immigration and border security. I mean, it's... it's over 20% net approval on that." (10:03)

Trump's aggressive economic policies, including tariffs, initially faced criticism but are now being viewed more favorably as tangible benefits emerge. Buchanan explains, "people are... realizing, oh, well, gas is cheaper. And they're starting to see the whole picture come together of how Trump's new approach to the economy is going to benefit them." (11:00)

He predicts that as economic indicators continue to improve, Trump's approval ratings will grow, potentially leading to a positive net favorability—a milestone the former president has yet to achieve.

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Impact of LGBT Issues on the Democratic Party

The discussion shifts to the influence of LGBT issues on the Democratic Party's standing. Buchanan contends that while the LGBT community represents a small portion of the population, their amplified presence in media overshadows other critical issues. He states, "they represent a small portion of that. But when you look at media attention and how loud their voices are... it's significantly outsized." (13:12)

Buchanan argues that the Democratic Party's aggressive focus on transgender issues has alienated moderate and conservative voters. He cites extreme policies, such as allowing a six-year-old to undergo gender transition surgeries, as examples of radicalism that have backfired. This radical stance, according to Buchanan, has led to declining support even for traditionally accepted issues like gay marriage.

Case Study: Jon Ossoff in Georgia

Using Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as a case study, Buchanan illustrates the political fallout from taking strong stances on LGBT issues. In a survey conducted with the American Principles Project, Ossoff's support plummeted when voters were informed of his positions on transgender policies. Buchanan notes, "Jon Ossoff drops down to 38%, which I've never seen an incumbent drop that far and go under 40%." (15:04)

This sharp decline underscores the vulnerability of Democratic candidates who prioritize cultural issues over broader economic or policy concerns, particularly in swing states where voters are highly sensitive to perceived extremes.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with an analysis of the Republican strategy leveraging cultural issues to strengthen their position. Buchanan encourages Republicans to "fight these culture wars of what we believe," highlighting the emerging strength of a conservative majority on these fronts. The discussion underscores a pivotal moment in American politics, where cultural alignment and economic policies are reshaping traditional party loyalties.

As the Democratic Party grapples with internal disarray and an unclear message, the Republican Party, buoyed by Trump's evolving approval and strategic focus on cultural issues, appears poised to capitalize on the shifting political tides. The insights provided by Brent Buchanan offer a comprehensive understanding of the current challenges and opportunities facing both major political parties in the United States.

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Notable Quotes

• Brent Buchanan (02:41): "They're definitely in trouble. And we've been tracking this almost weekly since Trump became president. And they've really cratered in their image."

• Brent Buchanan (03:42): "We've asked a couple times, who do you think the head of the Democratic Party is?... nobody gets above, like, 25%. So it's so clear that they're fragmented, not just on their message, but on their messengers."

• Brent Buchanan (06:22): "Among young voters, it is young males moving fastest. And what's really interesting is it's non-white young males that have been moving to the right culturally."

• Brent Buchanan (08:22): "What we're seeing is that it's both. And so the economic issues really opened up these, you know, working class voters, younger male voters..."

• Brent Buchanan (10:03): "His strongest issue is still by far, illegal immigration and border security. I mean, it's... it's over 20% net approval on that."

• Brent Buchanan (13:12): "they represent a small portion of that. But when you look at media attention and how loud their voices are... it's significantly outsized."

• Brent Buchanan (15:04): "Jon Ossoff drops down to 38%, which I've never seen an incumbent drop that far and go under 40%."

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Final Thoughts

This episode of Morning Wire provides a critical examination of the current political dynamics in the U.S., highlighting the challenges faced by the Democratic Party and the strategies propelling Republican momentum. Through detailed polling data and expert analysis, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the factors contributing to the shifting allegiances among key voter demographics.

Transcript

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[John Bickley]

In this episode, we sit down with pollster Brent Buchanan for a deep dive on the American public's current view of the Democratic Party and Trump's second term. I'm Daily Wire Executive editor John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Sunday, June 15th. Happy Father's Day. This is MORNING Wire.

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[John Bickley]

Joining us now to discuss the public perception of the Democratic Party as well as President Trump as founder and president of Signal Polling Group, Brent Buchanan. Brent, first of all, thank you so much for joining us.

[Brent Buchanan]

Hey, great to be back.

[John Bickley]

So look, we've been seeing a lot of reports of consternation from within The Democratic Party, some people talking off the record, some people talking on the record about the sort of disarray of the party. Is this overblown? Are they seriously in trouble right now? In terms of public perception?

[Brent Buchanan]

They're definitely in trouble. And we've been tracking this almost weekly since Trump became president. And they've really cratered in their image. And core constituencies that they would normally be doing pretty well with, they're falling apart. And as you look at Hispanic voters, you look at black voters, they're really underwater everywhere. Young women, they're underwater. A bunch of groups that they should not be having a problem with. But their entire message has just been anti Trump. So if Trump takes position A, they walk over to position B, and they claim that they have to be there because Trump's at position A. The problem is Trump is picking positions that are 60, 70, 80% popularity, and the Democrats are backing themselves into these tinier and tinier corners. And. And they don't have a messenger. They don't really have a message. And so they're just simply reactionary. And that's not resonating with voters.

[John Bickley]

But in terms of the messenger, is anyone actually separating themselves, is it actually AOC at this point?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, we've asked a couple times, who do you think the head of the Democratic Party is? And Barack Obama's up there. Kamala Harris is up there. I've seen polls that have Pete Buttigieg up there. Gavin Newsom's really not up there, because outside of California, he doesn't. He's not incredibly well known outside of, you know, the most highly attuned individuals that pay attention to politics all the time. And nobody gets above, like, 25%. So it's so clear that they're fragmented, not just on their message, but on their messengers. And then you throw on top of that, that you have a lot of people who are looking ahead to 2028 in the Democratic Party. So their goal is not going to be to figure out, you know, Wes Moore, governor of Maryland, or, you know, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, Andy Beshear, governor, Democrat governor of Kentucky. None of them are going to get in a room and come together and say, what is our message for the Democratic Party? Because they're all interested in what is Andy Brashear's message for America and for the Democratic Party, because I would like to be the nominee. And so it really complicates their ability to pull stuff together from a messaging perspective, because you're going to have 20 people who want to be President next.

[John Bickley]

Right. And the Democratic Party with its numbers across the board looking so grim, is there a sense too that these messengers actually don't want to align themselves with the party? They actually want to take the sort of Democrat part out of the messaging?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, you've got someone like Rahm Emanuel. You know, he was in Obama's White House and you know, recently an ambassador, I believe, to Japan. And he's come back to Chicago and he's trying to say we can't keep going off these cultural war cliffs and we've got to get back to issues that matter to working class voters. The problem is the Democratic Party is now the base of the Democratic Party is no longer working class voters. Those folks have shifted towards and continued to shift towards Republicans, both non white and white. They're stuck with these highly educated coastal elite, mostly older women folks that are well to do that live in these bubbles that look nothing like the rest of America. And that adds additional challenges to what is your message? Because they have no clue what normal people think and what normal people's lives are like.

[John Bickley]

So a real sense of disconnect there. Now in 2016, we heard the problem for the Democrats was particularly white males. That's changed. You highlighted some of that. It's not just white males now. It's all young males, even some young females. I think the young female thing might be very surprising to some people. What do you think is driving that trend, even among young females?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, they're not losing them as much as males. So you got to think of shifts in parties happening in waves. And so it's not everybody that matches a certain demographic group moving a certain direction. There tends to be pieces of those demographic groups that are first movers. So among young voters, it is young males moving fastest. And what's really interesting is it's non white young males that have been moving to the right culturally. And really, maybe we don't even have to say that they're moving right as much as that the left has moved so far left beyond them that they're saying sitting there looking down and going, okay, well, the people I used to identify with are way over here now. And so I guess the person I'm closest to now are these people who call themselves conservatives. But you see this globally. I mean, you go look at the presidential election that just happened in Poland where the liberal mayor of Warsaw lost even though he was expected to win. And it was the younger voters that catapulted the center right or further right candidate into the presidency. You saw that happen in Germany with the AfD. You saw it happen with reform in the UK so this is not a phenomenon that is exclusive to the US But I would say it's actually more drastic outside the US currently, which means it's going to come to our shores. I have for long said that all we have to do is look at what's happening in Europe and we're three to five to seven years behind there. And so I think what we're going to see is over the next three to five to seven years younger voters in the US Especially as they can't find economic opportunity and immigrants are replacing their housing opportunities and their ability to find jobs, that it is going to catapult young voters even further. Right. Faster. Right. Like we've seen in Europe most recently.

[John Bickley]

Right. We've been tracking that trend. Very fascinating in Europe. Now with the young males in America moving away from the Democratic Party. Do you think it's the culture war type issues in the Democrat messaging that's really sort of denigrating males in general, or is it more economic concerns that are driving young males away?

[Brent Buchanan]

What we're seeing is that it's both. And so the, the economic issues really opened up these, you know, working class voters, younger male voters, a lot of the segments that, that elected Donald Trump in 2024, it opened their eyes to these Democrats. When they're in charge, they cause chaos. And the chaos is now affecting my pocketbook. I don't necessarily think that's the reason at the end of the day that they made the switch. I think it is those cultural issues and those cultural issues that you mentioned are essentially proxies for radicalism. And if you don't see yourself as radical on those issues, then you don't see yourself as a Democrat right now. And yes, maybe it does come down to I'm going to make my vote on men and women's sports. I don't think a lot of people are walking into the voters booth and they're like the one issue, the final deciding factor. I think they're proxy topics for radicalism. And it's something that the Democrats were really good at doing to Republicans for a long time on abortion, where it wasn't about abortion alone, it was about what a Republican's position on abortion represented, about how radical they were on not giving an inch on anything and how they didn't care about women. And you could just kind of see how you unravel it into other topics. And I, and I see the culture wars of today that Republicans have finally realized that those are the best vehicles we have to show how radical the Democrats are.

[John Bickley]

Now, Trump, like when most presidents come into office, experienced a dip in approval rating at first. He started to make a rebound, though. What is going on with Trump's approval, specifically on the economy? How's he doing so far compared to other presidents at this point in their term?

[Brent Buchanan]

He started off like a rocket ship. I mean, so many key questions that we look at, like direction of the country and including his image. Also, are you favorable or unfavorable of Donald Trump? Once he got inaugurated, those numbers skyrocketed to the positive for him. Even the initial days of Doge and Elon Musk being there and, you know, 100 executive orders on every topic you can imagine, radical, drastic change. And I'm not saying radical in the sense that I don't agree with it, but it was very different than what people had experienced the month before, you know, or the year before with Joe Biden as president. So in looking at that, people were okay with the change. It was the tariffs that. That kind of threw a wrench in his image and how people viewed him. And there, therefore, it affected how they saw and gave him approval on his handling of certain issues. His strongest issue is still by far, illegal immigration and border security. I mean, it's. It's over 20% net approval on that. But what we have seen in the last couple of weeks is that his image has improved. How people believe he's handling of the economy's improved. And I think much of it is that the media cried wolf for so long, that these tariffs are going to double the cost of everything you purchase. And you have these companies saying, we can't hold on for very long. We're going to have to start increasing prices on you. And then magically, the price of eggs is down 62% since he took office. And people are. Are realizing, oh, well, gas is cheaper. And. And they're starting to see the whole picture come together of how Trump's new approach to the economy is going to benefit them. And they're realizing that the tariffs are not destroying the economy. If anything, they just brought in another $23 billion in tax revenue that didn't have to be paid by Americans, and it's driving folks to the table to negotiate better trade deals. For us, it was just this. This huge swath of change and then tariffs, which people didn't really understand. I think what's most fascinating, I saw a chart yesterday that showed approval of tariffs from the beginning of the year to now. And it's dropped pretty significantly of people approving of just what a tariff does in general. But I cannot wait a month, six weeks, eight weeks from now to see where things are, because I really do believe that much of what Trump is doing on the economy, tariffs being a key part of that, is actually going to start driving more money into people's pockets, less going out when they're going to purchase things. And we're really going to see him, I believe we're going to see Donald Trump actually flip into positive territory on his image where he has more people approve of him than disapprove, which is something he's never had.

[John Bickley]

Yeah, he's brought it to within around two points. Is that correct?

[Brent Buchanan]

We have him, you know, right. Right around that number right now. There are a couple polls that'll show he's, you know, plus 10 favorability. That's just. We don't live in a world where people have plus 10 favorability.

[John Bickley]

Now. This is Pride Month, or it used to be called Pride Month. It might have a different name soon. How much do you think the issue of the T in the LGBT has really hurt the Democratic Party and the overall left wing agenda? What do you predict in terms of future actions from the key voices from that side related to this?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, it seems like considering the percentage of the population that they are and the percentage of the lgbtq, whatever other letters and numbers and symbols we're adding to it today, they represent a small portion of that. But when you look at media attention and how loud their voices are and how often their issue is brought up over other people in that coalition's issues are brought up, it's significantly outsized. And going back to what we were talking about of reasonableness and radicalism, when you talk about the lgbt, you know, those are things that we've all heard about for 30, 40 years. And, you know, they started out, let us, you know, have a relationship, let us get married now, bake our cake now. And they kind of realized that they pushed the envelope too far in going from them having freedom and to pushing into other people's freedoms. And the transgender crowd. And those who support them have not figured that piece out. And they keep digging like Democrats in general. They just keep digging further into the issue where it's not just about, you know, a 40 year old person could decide if they want to change their gender. They want to, in California, take away a six year old child from their parents if they do not do the gender transition surgery on a six year old child. And that is where you go from reasonableness to radicalism. And that is why the T and LGBTQ has so drastically brought down the whole movement. And there was a survey that I saw the other day that amongst conservatives and moderates, there's been a decline in the support for gay marriage, which nobody's even talking about that issue right now, yet it's declining because of this anchor of the radical transgendered ideology.

[John Bickley]

And didn't you recently feature some specific polling on this trans issue that was really bad for Georgia Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff?

[Brent Buchanan]

Yes. So we worked with the American Principles Project and did a survey in Georgia a couple months ago. I don't expect it's changed anything for the positive for him in that sense. We asked what's called a generic ballot, and that is you want the Republican or the Democrat for us Senate, Republican leads out by one in that instance. Then we said, okay, well, what about Democrat Jon Ossoff? And a Republican didn't even name a Republican a Republican. It's tied. That's not a great place for a sitting incumbent member of the Senate to be in a. In a purple swing state where, you know, you're tied with a nobody who just happens to have a label. And then we said, if you knew Jon Ossoff, and I don't have it in front of me, so I'm not going to get it exactly right. But if you knew Jon Ossoff, you know, voted against getting rid of men and women's sports, protecting women's sports. That's it. That's all we introduced is the information. Who would you vote for? Jon Ossoff or a Republican candidate? And Jon Ossoff drops down to 38%, which I've never seen an incumbent drop that far and go under 40%. And the Republican leads by 14 points in that instance on a single issue. So, you know, the Republican ecosystem needs to be just running that one ad over and over again for the rest of this year to get Jon Ossoff to a place where he couldn't ever come back from. And I think that shows the power of these culture issues. And the Republicans need to be willing to fight these culture wars of what we believe, because we have a strong majority on our side of these issues, and they're becoming less of a silent majority, which is encouraging.

[John Bickley]

Well, it's unsurprising that the Trump administration has really leaned into this issue so heavily and done a complete 180 from how the Biden administration approached Pride Month, for example. Brent, thanks so much for talking with us.

[Brent Buchanan]

Hey, thank you, John.

[John Bickley]

That was Brent Buchanan, founder of Signal Polling Group. And this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.

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