Morning Wire – “Will Iranians Seize the Moment?” | March 1, 2026

Episode Overview

In this special weekend edition, hosts John Bickley and Georgia Howe (Daily Wire) explore the unfolding situation in Iran after President Trump’s call for Iranians to rise up and seize their “once in a generation opportunity” for regime change, following U.S. airstrikes. With expert insights from Jonathan Saya, an Iran analyst and native, the conversation unpacks the roots of public dissent, the pivotal role of the Iranian Crown Prince, the prospects for foreign intervention, generational shifts, and the complex hurdles between collapse of the Islamic Republic and credible democratic transition.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Mood on the Ground: Shifting Opposition to the Regime

[04:06-05:54]

• Jonathan Saya traces current protests back to 2009 and earlier waves when hope existed for internal reforms.
• Since then, “those hopes died” as security forces violently suppressed dissent, most notably in 2009.
• Iran now faces economic collapse, environmental crises, and a record of high executions; “Iranians see no way out but through.”
• Trump’s call for uprising has been a real motivator: “They are protesting because Trump said help is on the way.”
• The regime’s own use of foreign proxies justifies, in many Iranians’ minds, openness to Western humanitarian assistance.

“It was really critical when the President called on protesters to expand...they are protesting because Trump said help is on the way.”
— Jonathan Saya [04:43]

2. Fear, Hope, and the Role of Leadership

[05:55-07:29]

• Despite a history of failed protests, there is both residual fear and a new sense of hope.
• Recent demonstrations are the largest in Iran’s history, surpassing notable uprisings in 2009, 2019, 2021, and 2022.
• Previous protest movements lacked a clear leader; the current Crown Prince’s assumption of leadership is inspiring people, giving the movement focus and momentum.
• Heavy losses (approx. 40,000 unarmed killed) have not dampened momentum: “They think it is now or never...which is why we see them again come to the streets actually cheering these strikes.”
• Civic movements, not just street protests, show multi-sector engagement (funerals, student activism, strikes).

3. The Crown Prince: Legitimacy, History, and Future Role

[07:30-09:10]

• The monarchy is deeply embedded in Iranian identity; the Pahlavi dynasty modernized Iran and is remembered fondly.
• The 1979 revolution is widely viewed as a mistake by the young; there’s nostalgia, but also a vision to move forward “using the past as a springboard for the future.”
• Saya stresses that although there’s monarchy nostalgia, all major actors—including the Crown Prince—agree future governance must be chosen via elections once the regime collapses.

“The monarchy as an institution...is really intertwined with the Iranian identity...But it is really critical for us to see that this is not only nostalgia, it is the past that could be used as a springboard for the future.”
— Jonathan Saya [08:00]

4. Managing the Transition: Avoiding Chaos and Balkanization

[09:10-11:08]

• Key pillars needed: national unity (avoid breakup or separatism) and swift sanctions relief to revive the economy.
• The Crown Prince is working toward both.
• Saya describes the need for a detailed “script” to manage post-collapse chaos—the Islamic Republic’s structures are deeply embedded in society.
• Despite familiarity with sham elections under the regime, many Iranians understand participation in democratic processes and have the tools for pluralistic politics.
• External help, especially American and Israeli intelligence, is seen as necessary to prevent Islamist factions from hijacking the revolution.

5. U.S. Role and Iranian Perceptions of the West

[11:09-13:55]

• While Western intervention is historically fraught, in this case, Saya believes it would be welcomed.
• The young see the regime as “an Islamic force, an occupation,” not as legitimate rulers.
• Saya refutes ideas of ingrained anti-Americanism: “The form of animosity towards the West or America doesn’t really exist [among the young]...they aspire to have these freedoms.”

"Once the US were to step in, as is promised, I think that would be very well received by Iranians, as we see right now...they keep pleading for Trump to get involved."
— Jonathan Saya [12:40]

6. What Form of Future Government?

[13:56-15:16]

• On the likely direction: Constitutional monarchy is the probable favored option, combining strong national identity, stability, and democratic practices.
• Saya notes other regional monarchies fare better economically and socially than neighboring republics.
• Desire for democracy is strong, but so is wariness about Islamist groups exploiting too much social freedom, as seen in Egypt.
• The Crown Prince, as unifying symbol, is expected to lead but within bounds set by future elections.

7. Generational Shifts: Rejection of Islamism, Embrace of West

[15:17-19:54]

• Young Iranians (majority under 30) have only ever lived under the Islamic Republic and now reject its imposed Islamism.
• There is a strong desire for a clear separation between religion and state: “You could still be a practicing Muslim as long as you don’t really enforce that onto others.”
• The 1979 revolution is almost unanimously seen as a “blank mistake.”
• Saya highlights widespread rejection of regime propaganda: “They are lying to us when they say the United States is the enemy. Our enemy is right here, meaning the Islamic Republic.”
• Antagonism toward the U.S. or Israel is nearly non-existent outside state-orchestrated propaganda events.

“There’s this major generational divide... 1979 revolution was a mistake. Blank.”
— Jonathan Saya [17:20]

“They are lying to us when they say the United States is the enemy. Our enemy is right here, meaning it's the Islamic Republic.”
— Jonathan Saya [18:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Of course fear is there. Of course they do not want to really risk their lives ideally, but they're at a point that they think it is now or never, as the President noted...”
  — Jonathan Saya [06:55]
• “The monarchy as an institution...is really intertwined with the Iranian identity.”
  — Jonathan Saya [07:45]
• “They keep pleading for Trump to get involved. Of course, once he said help is on the way, that gave a lot of momentum, which again points to the fact that Iranians think without U.S. intervention, they cannot really push this regime towards its collapse.”
  — Jonathan Saya [12:45]
• “There’s this major generational divide that there was one generation that made a mistake. And that's what's really understood, is that 1979 revolution was a mistake. Blank.”
  — Jonathan Saya [17:20]
• “They are lying to us when they say the United States is the enemy. Our enemy is right here, meaning it's the Islamic Republic.”
  — Jonathan Saya [18:30]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [04:06] – Origins of anti-regime protests and public sentiment
• [06:13] – Hope and fear, post-2009 protest dynamics, Crown Prince’s emergence
• [07:40] – Crown Prince’s legitimacy & the monarchy’s role in Iranian identity
• [09:20] – Preventing chaos: plans for transition, unity, avoiding Balkanization
• [11:29] – The U.S. role: expected perception, readiness for intervention
• [13:55] – The future system: Constitutional monarchy vs. republic
• [15:55] – Generational attitudes: Religion, anti-Islamism, and views of the West

Concluding Insight

With protests swelling, generational shifts accelerating, and a unifying figure in the Crown Prince, Jonathan Saya argues Iran may be closer than ever to genuine regime change. Iranians, particularly the young, reject both Islamism and anti-American propaganda, emerging with a pragmatic yearning for freedom, national unity, and economic revival. The episode frames the coming days and weeks as a pivotal juncture—with the outcome likely connected to the scale, structure, and legitimacy of Western intervention, and the readiness of Iranian civil society for self-determination.