Will Trudeau Resign? Canada’s Leadership in Jeopardy | 12.22.24

Summary

Morning Wire Podcast Summary: "Will Trudeau Resign? Canada’s Leadership in Jeopardy" | December 22, 2024

Hosted by Georgia Howe and John Bickley of The Daily Wire, the Sunday edition of Morning Wire delves into the tumultuous political landscape in Canada, focusing on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's precarious position amidst rising opposition and economic challenges.

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1. The Resignation of Krista Freeland and Its Implications

The episode kicks off with an analysis of the recent resignation of Krista Freeland, Canada's Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. Georgia Howe introduces the topic:

Georgia Howe [00:03]: "Last week, Canada's finance minister and one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's closest allies resigned, sending shockwaves throughout Parliament."

Victoria Coates, Vice President for National Security and Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation, elaborates on the significance:

Victoria Coates [01:36]: "There are so many... Prime Minister Trudeau... has become deeply unpopular to the point of 23% popularity, which is pretty bad. And as you said, Krista Freeland... has resigned essentially based on the catastrophic economic situation. And I think you're seeing the Liberal Party really fall apart."

Freeland's departure is portrayed as a catalyst for further instability within the Liberal Party, highlighting internal fractures and diminishing leadership cohesion.

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2. Economic Turmoil Under Trudeau's Administration

The conversation shifts to the economic factors contributing to Trudeau's declining popularity. Coates attributes the crisis to Trudeau's "very liberal economic policies," emphasizing the depreciation of the Canadian dollar and excessive spending on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives and an aggressive green agenda.

Victoria Coates [02:29]: "He is prioritizing DEI issues, for example, going very heavily into an extreme green agenda, all of which is disastrous for Canada's economy."

She also points out missed opportunities in the energy sector:

Victoria Coates [02:29]: "Canadian Conservatives have been saying, hey, why aren't we selling more oil to the United States?... developing our natural resources."

The result is a strained economy with rising inflation and energy prices, further fueling public discontent.

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3. The "Trump Effect" and US-Canada Relations

Georgia Howe brings up the influence of former U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada's political climate, particularly regarding trade tensions and tariff threats.

Georgia Howe [03:17]: "Now, a lot of people are pointing to Trump's return to power as one of the factors that's causing some of this turmoil in Canada..."

Victoria Coates responds by defining this phenomenon as the "Trump Effect":

Victoria Coates [03:26]: "I think that's very real, and I'm calling it the Trump Effect... the impact of that on Canada's economy would be devastating."

She recounts Trudeau's recent visit to Trump's Mar-a-Lago, which was poorly received:

Victoria Coates [03:26]: "Prime Minister Trudeau hightail it down to Mar a Lago last week to try to talk President Trump out of that position... refer to him as Governor Trudeau, which was pretty hilarious."

This incident underscores the strained bilateral relations and Trudeau's attempts to mitigate potential economic fallout.

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4. Trudeau’s Waning Popularity and Potential Resignation

The discussion then focuses on Trudeau's plummeting approval ratings and the factors driving his unpopularity beyond just economic woes.

Victoria Coates [04:34]: "I think economic is king in these situations... they have inflation, you have increasing energy prices, you're going to just have overall unhappiness."

Coates also highlights Trudeau's perceived alignment with a global elitist class disconnected from ordinary Canadians:

Victoria Coates [04:34]: "They feel like he is very allied with a kind of global elitist class that consider themselves the betters of Canada and aren't paying attention to the issues that matter to Canadians."

Given these challenges, Coates discusses the possibility of Trudeau's resignation:

Victoria Coates [05:48]: "If he feels like the situation is untenable... the writing is on the wall. He might also hope for a Hail Mary... it rarely works, but doesn't stop people from trying."

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5. The Rise of Conservative Opposition and Pierre Poilievre’s Prospects

Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre emerges as a formidable contender poised to capitalize on Trudeau's faltering leadership.

Victoria Coates [07:17]: "I think if a vote was called, the Conservative Party would win handily. He's about 20 points up on Trudeau, so that points to a pretty sweeping victory."

Coates praises Poilievre's political acumen and alignment with traditional Conservative values:

Victoria Coates [07:17]: "Polievre is a very compelling politician... much more staunch rock-ribbed Conservative in the tradition of Stephen Harper."

This surge in Conservative support signals a potential shift in Canada's political landscape, with Poilievre viewed as a strong partner for President Trump.

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6. The Housing Crisis and Public Discontent

A critical issue exacerbating Trudeau's troubles is the severe housing shortage, deemed the most consequential story of 2024 by Canadian Press outlets.

Victoria Coates [07:51]: "The policies that Trudeau has espoused... driving up prices for commodities that go into housing very dramatically."

Coates links the housing crisis to Trudeau's extreme carbon pricing and anti-growth policies:

Victoria Coates [07:51]: "Extreme carbon pricing schemes... are making untenable living conditions with affordable housing and energy."

This housing shortage not only impacts the economy but also diminishes quality of life, fueling widespread frustration among Canadians.

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7. Conclusions and Future Outlook

Victoria Coates concludes that Trudeau's administration is on the brink of collapse, with multiple factors undermining his leadership. The combination of economic mismanagement, strained international relations, and pressing domestic issues like the housing crisis creates a volatile environment.

Victoria Coates [07:39]: "Trudeau is increasingly yesterday's news... pretty optimistic about their chances if a vote is called."

The episode suggests that unless significant reforms are implemented, Trudeau may not withstand the mounting pressure, paving the way for a Conservative victory and a potential new era in Canadian politics.

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Summary:
In this episode of Morning Wire, Georgia Howe and guest Victoria Coates provide a comprehensive analysis of the current political instability in Canada. The resignation of Finance Minister Krista Freeland underscores deep-seated issues within the Liberal Party, exacerbated by Trudeau's unpopular economic and social policies. The "Trump Effect" further complicates US-Canada relations, threatening the nation's economy. With Trudeau's approval ratings at a nadir and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre gaining momentum, the future of Canada's leadership remains uncertain. Additionally, the severe housing crisis highlights the tangible impacts of Trudeau's governance, intensifying public discontent and setting the stage for potential political upheaval.

Transcript

[Georgia Howe]

Last week, Canada's finance minister and one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's closest allies resigned, sending shockwaves throughout Parliament. Christa Freeland's resignation caused a chain reaction of Parliament members demanding that the prime minister resign. In this episode, we speak with Heritage Foundation Vice president for national security and Foreign Policy Victoria Coates about the uphill battle Trudeau faces and what comes next. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor in Chief John Bick. It's December 22nd and this is a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.

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[Georgia Howe]

Joining us now is Victoria Coates, vice president of national security and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. So, Victoria, quite a bit of chaos happening in Canada. First off, Krista Freeland, Canada's finance minister, resigned this past week. How significant is that? And what does her departure suggest about the internal fractures within the Liberal Party?

[Victoria Coates]

It's a really chaotic situation and your listeners will be forgiven. There are so many. We have South Korea, we have Japan, we have Germany, we have France. All of these governments are sort of falling into chaos largely because their populations feel the governments are not responding to the issues that are important to them and particularly in Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau, who has been the card carrying poster child for a woke liberal agenda, very extreme policies on immigration, on gender issues, all of these things has become deeply unpopular to the point of 23% popularity, which is pretty bad. And as you said, Krista Freeland, their finance minister and deputy prime minister, has resigned essentially based on the catastrophic economic situation. And I think you're seeing the Liberal Party really fall apart.

[Georgia Howe]

What is the catastrophic financial situation in Canada?

[Victoria Coates]

Well, I think this has all come from very liberal economic policies of Prime Minister Trudeau where the currency is depreciating dramatically. He is prioritizing DEI issues, for example, going very heavily into an extreme green agenda, all of which is disastrous for Canada's economy. Bear in mind Canada is one of the world's great energy Producers quietly behind the scenes, Canadian Conservatives have been saying, hey, why aren't we selling more oil to the United States? Why aren't we refining together, we developing our natural resources? And I think the Canadian people realize there's a much more productive relationship, particularly with the United States, if we have new leadership in both countries that aren't as committed to an extreme green agenda.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, a lot of people are pointing to Trump's return to power as one of the factors that's causing some of this turmoil in Canada, particularly relating to his tariff threats. Is there any truth to that?

[Victoria Coates]

I think that's very real, and I'm calling it the Trump Effect. It is something that seems to be sort of impacting almost the entire globe. But in this case, there has been an uneven playing field between Canada and the United States. And while USMCA is an improvement on the old NAFTA deal, it has not completely leveled the field. And I think that's what President Trump was saying. And the impact of that on Canada's economy would be devastating. I think that's why you saw Prime Minister Trudeau hightail it down to Mar a Lago last week to try to talk President Trump out of that position. And you had the president offer to make Canada the 51st state and started to refer to him as Governor Trudeau, which was pretty hilarious, but very much, I think, an indicator that the United States is the big brother in this relationship. And under President Trump, we're not going to be taken advantage of anymore.

[Georgia Howe]

Justin Trudeau's popularity, you mentioned, is at an all time low. And you did mention that there's some economic factors there contributing. What other issues are leading to his unpopularity? Is it primarily just the depreciating dollar or what else is going on?

[Victoria Coates]

I think economic is king in these situations, that when you have a suffering economy, you have inflation, you have increasing energy prices, you're going to just have overall unhappiness. Then the threat of increasing economic woes because of Trudeau's policies personalize this. I think from what I've seen from a lot of Canadians online is they feel like he is very allied with a kind of global elitist class that consider themselves the betters of Canada and aren't paying attention to the issues that matter to Canadians. And I think that's very much the sentiment we got from the recent U.S. election. I think this is an opportunity because the Conservative Party is led by a politician named Pierre Poilvre, who is much more staunch rock ribbed Conservative in the tradition of Stephen Harper. And other great Canadian leaders who I think would be a super partner for President Trump. So the Canadian election isn't necessarily going to happen for next October, which is when they have to do it. But the situation is certainly very fluid. The Prime Minister could resign at any time, call for a snap election. So that could happen sooner rather than later.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, what motivation would Trudeau have to actually resign?

[Victoria Coates]

I think if he feels like the situation is untenable, that he is facing so much non confidence, he can't get anything done. If he has additional resignations in his government and he can't find people to replace them, he may realize that the writing is on the wall. He might also hope for a Hail Mary, that maybe the people who have been voting for him for these many years might come out again and give him another term. We've seen that attempted before. It rarely works, but doesn't stop people from trying. So all of those factors could contribute to a resignation. But as I said, I think it's more likely he tries to limp along as long as he can.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, we recently saw Trudeau visit Mar a Lago and be somewhat deferential to Trump. Is that a good strategy for him with regards to his relationship with the US or is that just going to weaken him further?

[Victoria Coates]

No, I think it's maybe his only strategy. He realizes Trump is coming back. He realizes that Trump has a lot of problems with what they've been doing economically. And I think this was kind of his attempt to mend bridges. I think, unfortunately, that's simply not going to work. I don't think he is capable of implementing the kind of sweeping Conservative reforms that would be required to evade those Trump tariffs and return, as I said, to a level playing field. So I unfortunately don't think that was much more than kind of an exercise in ritual self humiliation.

[Georgia Howe]

Now opposition leader Pierre Poliev is gaining momentum, all while Trudeau craters. What do you think his chances are in the event of a vote?

[Victoria Coates]

I think if a vote was called, the Conservative Party would win handily. He's about 20 points up on Trudeau, so that points to a pretty sweeping victory. Polievre is a very compelling politician. Growing in popularity sort of seems like the next new thing. Trudeau is increasingly yesterday's news. So I'm pretty optimistic about their chances if a vote is called.

[Georgia Howe]

Now, the housing shortage in Canada was voted the most consequential story of 2024 by Canadian Press outlets. How big is the crisis there in Canada and how is it shaping the discontent?

[Victoria Coates]

Well, I mean, I think it's for many of the same reasons. The policies that Trudeau has espoused are these what you might call anti human and anti growth, very extreme carbon pricing schemes, which is all based on what I think are illusory climate targets. And it' driving up prices for commodities that go into housing very dramatically. And I think that is a fundamental economic problem that goes with the others that we've been discussing that just have tanked his popularity. Again, I think this is the same lesson we had from November 5th here in the United States, that the insistence on climate change as the most existential threat to the United States or to Canada just simply isn't resonating with voters. They don't want to live this way. They want a plentiful affordable energy. They want readily available affordable housing. I mean, these are pretty basic needs that this extreme agenda related to climate issues is making untenable.

[Georgia Howe]

All right. Well, Victoria, thank you so much for coming on.

[Victoria Coates]

Absolutely. A pleasure. Thank you, Georgia.

[Georgia Howe]

That was Victoria Coates, vice president of National Security and Foreign Policy at the Heritage foundation, and this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.