MLB Wants to End the High School Draft. What It Means for Your Son

Summary

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Most Valuable Agent with Matt Hannaford

Episode: MLB Wants to End the High School Draft. What It Means for Your Son

Date: July 8, 2026
Host: Matt Hannaford
Guest/Producer: Mike

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Matt Hannaford dives deep into the recent proposal by Major League Baseball to overhaul the amateur draft system—most notably, the reported move to eliminate high school player eligibility for the MLB draft. Matt and his producer Mike break down what this could mean for players, their families, and the development landscape of baseball, examining the business motivations behind MLB’s proposal and offering advice for current high school hopefuls.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking Down the Proposal

• Proposal Details ([01:03])
  • MLB, as part of collective bargaining with the MLBPA, proposed ending high school draft eligibility, reducing the draft from 20 to 12 rounds, slashing draft bonuses by 50%, introducing hard slot values, and allowing more trading of picks.
  • Matt clarifies that although the media presents this as imminent, it's just one side’s tactic in a negotiation.
• Quote ([02:46]):

  "What gets discussed through the media and what ultimately gets agreed to are two vastly different things. ... Like, 10% of it actually comes into play."
  — Matt

2. Negotiation vs. Reality

• MLB's Tactics ([02:46]–[04:00])
  • MLB’s proposal is a bargaining chip, not a guaranteed outcome.
  • Extreme demands are standard in negotiations to anchor talks, allowing later concessions to be presented as significant compromises.
  • Matt expects the elimination of high school eligibility is unlikely to be the final result—"this is a tactic done by Major League Baseball."
• Quote ([05:54]):

  "Do I think that they right now are saying we're willing to die on a cliff...if that means we don't get the elimination of high school draft picks? I do not believe that."
  — Matt

3. Implications for Player Development & Opportunities

• Immediate Impacts (If Passed) ([08:36])

  • Best players may reclassify and graduate early to gain draft eligibility post-college.
  • College recruiting would become more competitive, with colleges accessing better talent previously destined for the draft.
  • Traditional college players could lose opportunities.

• Quote ([09:50]):

  "Those colleges ultimately are going to commit those players, they're going to spend dollars on those players...that's less money that they can spend on some of these other players."
  — Matt

• MLB’s Motivation: Control and Leverage ([10:21])

  • The move is fundamentally aimed at reducing player leverage and lowering signing bonuses.
  • By removing high schoolers' option to choose college over an unsatisfactory draft deal, players lose a critical bargaining chip.

• Quote ([11:52]):

  "They want to eliminate players from having leverage. That is what Major League Baseball is built to do."
  — Matt

4. Ripple Effects: College Recruitment and NIL Implications

• Recruiting Shifts ([15:15])
  • Colleges gain more leverage over recruits who no longer have the threat of the MLB draft as an option.
  • NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals may decrease in value for high school stars since their options are limited.
• Quote ([15:40]):

  "The only thing that would cause you [the college] to pay him top dollar is, well, if this guy doesn't come to us, he's going to go to a different program. ... But the package, whatever it is, is going to naturally be less because he doesn't have the option to go out of the draft."
  — Matt

5. Impact on Quality of Play and Player Pathways

• Questions about Quality ([16:41])
  • If teams must fill minor league spots from a smaller pool primarily of college players, does that raise or lower the bar for talent?
  • Matt raises doubt that barring high schoolers improves the game.
• Quote ([17:11]):

  "Is that making the game better? It's not...Anytime we limit that, it's going to have a serious negative consequence."
  — Matt

6. Advice to Families and Players

• Don’t Panic or Re-Plan Yet ([18:28])

  • Parents and families should proceed as usual; nothing is finalized. Avoid overreacting to media reports.

• Quote ([18:33]):

  "Don’t change anything on your end. Keep moving forward, assuming that nothing is going to change...as negotiations continue, as things develop, as we start getting more information, obviously, that’s what this podcast is for."
  — Matt

• Confidence in MLB Players Association ([19:00])

  • Matt voices strong faith in the MLBPA to defend player rights against overly restrictive proposals.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Leverage Game

  “They want to eliminate leverage and they want to create less opportunity for players to be able to get paid.” ([00:07]) — Matt

• On Negotiation Theater

  “These games are being played behind the scenes all the time. ... They leak it to the media. They want to act like this is a big deal, and in fact, they really, really want it. That's the only way any negotiation ever works, is if the other side believes it's what you want.” ([04:42]) — Matt

• On Context

  "Parents ask me questions and they think that the answer is black and white, that there's a blueprint that applies to every player 100% of the time. And it doesn't. There's always context. Context matters in these things." ([18:57]) — Matt

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Segment Timestamps

• Major League Baseball Proposal Details – [01:03]-[02:10]
• Initial Reaction: "It's Just Negotiation" – [02:46]-[04:05]
• How Negotiations Typically Play Out – [04:05]-[06:30]
• What If This Proposal Actually Happened? – [08:36]-[13:30]
• Leverage, College Recruiting, and NIL – [14:26]-[16:41]
• Advice to Families and Final Thoughts – [18:28]-[19:15]

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Conclusion

Matt emphasizes throughout the episode that the proposed end of the high school draft is best understood as a negotiation tactic—not a done deal. While the intended outcome appears to benefit MLB clubs by restricting player leverage and reducing costs, the actual impact would ripple through player development pipelines, college recruiting, and the overall quality of play. Matt urges listeners not to panic, maintain context, and have faith in the players’ union, promising further updates as negotiations evolve.

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Transcript

[A]

The MLB is seeking sweeping draft overhaul, including the end of high school eligibility. This is a big, big deal.

[B]

Funny enough, that's exactly what they're also trying to do in the big leagues. So if they can accomplish that at the younger levels, then naturally their next step is we also want to do that at the big league levels. They want to eliminate leverage and they want to create less opportunity for players to be able to get paid. Despite the fact that everybody is saying, oh my gosh, this would ruin things. I'm not going to jump to that conclusion because I don't ultimately think it's necessarily going to happen. All right, welcome back to another episode of the Most Valuable Agent podcast. Coming to you today with, I guess, some industry news. And I'm sitting here with my producer Mike. There was some news that came across the wire yesterday that, Mike, I know you wanted to kind of talk to me about, so why don't you, I guess, tee it off for everybody who's listening and, and let us know what, what your question is.

[A]

Yeah, so I kind of feel like this is like a WOJ Bomb type of type type of news break that we have. But it was recently reported, Matt, and I know you know this because you have inside access to all this given the nature of your work, but it was reported on Thursday, June 18th by Baseball America amongst ESPN and also Yahoo Sports that the MLB is seeking sweeping draft overh, including the end of high school eligibility. So I'm going to read the first two paragraphs because one, I think we got to talk about what this proposal could potentially do to anybody that's in high school right now looking to go to the Major League Draft. The first thing, and then I think the second thing, Matt, is to talk about the development process because this would actually change the entire way that parents and players would be looking at the development process. So I'm going to jump right into the report. Okay. And this is cited by J.J. cooper of Baseball Americ as part of the MLB and the MLBPA's collective bargaining negotiations. Major League Baseball proposed on Thursday the elimination of high school draftee eligibility as part of a broader framework to significantly rework the amateur player acquisition system. The proposal would also cut the MLB draft from 20 to 12 rounds, slash draft bonuses by more than 50% compared to last year's totals, allow for more expansive trading of draft picks, and establish hard draft slots, which would mean that a draft pick signing bonus would be for a set amount as determined by the draft position. Matt, this is huge, man. This is a big, big Deal, in my opinion, at least. And I would love for you to talk about your initial reaction, like, what is this?

[B]

So I obviously found out about this before it got released. You know, I have a relationship, as you would imagine, with the Players association as well as my clients who are involved in those negotiations. So the thing that I want to make sure that I kind of lead off with is, number one, I respect the process between Major League Baseball and the Players Association. Right. It's the thing I want to make sure everybody understands before they just jump off a cliff and assume that this is happening is this is a negotiation. This is not what has been agreed to. Right. So the first thing in my initial reaction when I heard it was, well, I feel like I know exactly what this is right now. What I'm about to tell you, this is not based on what I. What I know is going to happen. It's more based on how I know negotiating negotiations go. And more importantly, from both sides, both the union side and MLB side, there's a strategy that these different organizations employ to ultimately get what they want to have happen in. In any given negotiation. Right. But the thing that I want everybody to, I guess, accept on the surface is what gets discussed through the media and what ultimately gets agreed to are two vastly different things. Okay? Not that I'm going to tell you that this percentage is. Is perfect by any means, but, you know, in any given negotiation, in any given trade proposal, you know, you'll hear stuff being reported through the media, and most of the time, like, 10% of it actually comes into play. It actually comes to fruition. It actually happens. My initial reaction when I saw this was this was a tactic by Major League Baseball, okay? Now, despite the fact that everybody is, I think, jumping over a cliff and saying, oh, my gosh, this would ruin things, I'm not going to jump to that conclusion because I don't ultimately think as we sit here today, that I believe it's necessarily going to happen. Now, if that changes, happy to come on here and talk about those changes. But on the surface, my initial reaction was, yeah, this is a tactic done by Major League Baseball because they obviously want to make some changes, and they have identified various ways to make those changes, and so this is what they proposed. Now, in a negotiation, oftentimes what you do is you add very specific things that can be viewed as extreme, okay? And you kind of put your stake in the ground. But deep down, behind the scenes, even Major League Baseball, I would imagine, kind of knows what their ultimate end goal is with it. So do I think that they right now are saying we're willing to die on a cliff or we're willing to die on a hill if that means we don't get the elimination of high school draft picks? I do not believe that that is the case. I think this is one component of a much larger negotiation. But what I do think that Major League Baseball does want to achieve is they want to take the draft down from 20 rounds to a lower number. I do believe that MLB, as they always have, they want to take the amount of money paid to players out of the draft from whatever it's been over the last couple of years to a number much less that that I know that they want to achieve now. Does that mean they're going to get it? No. Ultimately, the union has to agree to these things. And so I think the only way they probably felt like they can get to that resolution is to ask for some crazy stuff in advance. And then as the negotiation goes on, they can then concede certain points. As an example, we really, really want high school players to have to go to college. We think it's better for the players. We think it's better for the game as a whole. We really, really want that. But if you guys are unwilling to agree to that, I'll tell you what we'll do. We'll give you back the high school players. They can still be drafted, but we're definitely going to a lower number of rounds, and then they can plant their flag there. And now it looks like, oh, they've made some concessions, they've made some movement. These games are being played behind the scenes all the time. So in a negotiation, you're not articulating to the other side. Here's our plan. This is why we're asking for this. So naturally, what the commissioner is doing and what Major League Baseball is doing is they leak it to the media. They want to act like this is a big deal, and in fact, they really, really want it. That's the only way any negotiation ever works, is if the other side believes it's what you want. And so all of this, for me is just speculation, right? It's what the game would look like if Major League Baseball had full control. And the reality of the system is that they don't have full control. The union has to ultimately agree. The players have to ultimately agree to those changes. If you ask me, Mike, Matt, do you think this is actually better for the game? Unquestionably, I would tell you the answer to that is no. And all it takes is you can point to various players, Manny Machado, a number of guys who were really high draft picks out of high school, who became superstars and future hall of Famers in the big leagues. So why would you just want to cast this wide net and completely prevent those players from being able to do that? Especially when major league organizations don't want to eliminate high school players from the draft. Right.

[A]

The other thing that I wanted, I think it's important that we bring to light as well, is that the preparation by the families, even the thought of this potentially going through. And let's just play in the world that this proposal is real. Like this proposal gets verified and it is an agreed upon amendment in the new CBA going forward. Because I know that's a big deal and we haven't even talked about that yet. Where do you see this type of proposal and change, where do you see it having the most impact when it comes to the game of baseball at the high school level? Are you going to see more players, do you think, going into college? Are you going to see travel baseball changing now because of this? And if so, what do you believe those changes will be?

[B]

Yeah, let's, let's, let's take, just for the sake of the argument, let's steel man, it right? Let's assume that Major League Baseball actually believes that this is a positive for the game as a whole. And let's assume that everybody agrees that, oh yeah, we could see the benefit of that. So let's agree to this deal. Let's agree to eliminate high school players. What do I think the byproduct of doing that? What would potentially happen? Let me tell you why I believe it would actually have the opposite effect. So, number one, the very best players will end up graduating high school early. They will leave high school well before they probably should. They will get into college earlier, they will get that eligibility out of the way and then they'll sign obviously out of college in the draft. Right. Like that's what would happen. Now is that better for the kids development? In some cases maybe it would be. But do I think the industry as a whole is better when a ton of high school players are reclassifying to a younger age group, getting to college earlier? No, because what is that doing to the traditional college player who otherwise wouldn't be drafted out of high school and would just be going straight to college anyways? I'm looking at those opportunities now being eliminated for those players. So now these colleges have access to way more players. Those colleges ultimately are going to Commit those players, they're going to spend dollars on those players, and that's less money that they can spend on some of these other players who, mind you, developing college, naturally, who have the chance to play professional baseball down the road only after college. And so, again, I think Major League Baseball is looking, you know, this is like second order thinking, right. They're not paying attention to the immediate impact. They're paying attention to the bigger, broader picture down the road. And for me, what it accounts to is leverage. They want to eliminate players from having leverage. That is what Major League Baseball is built to do. We want to take power away from players so that their hands are tied and they don't have as many options available to them. Because if we can do that, then from an ownership perspective, we can spend less money to secure that talent. Now, that begs the question, well, how would they be eliminating leverage? Well, if you take away high school, right. Like what. What is the leverage of a high school player? The leverage of a high school player is if you don't give me the money that I want, then I'm just going to go to college. Well, that's taken away now that player is going to college. All right, well, what's the leverage of the player in college? Yeah, on some level, it's, well, we could be drafted by other teams. We can go back to college for another year. Yeah, but that is a much lesser amount of leverage that you ultimately have at your disposal. And so I think the natural byproduct of that is these guys are down the road going to make less money. If you look at the percentage of success of college baseball players making it to the big leagues who were drafted in the first three rounds compared to high school players who are getting to the big leagues, who are drafted in the first three rounds, the percentage of guys going to college is much greater getting to the big leagues than the percentage of the high school player. Now, why is that? Does it mean college does a good job of developing the guy? No, that's not what that means. For me, all that means is when the player is being drafted at 21, the organization has a much clearer picture on who this guy ultimately is going to be at the next level compared to a kid who's 18. And there's just. There's more disparity. You just, he's. He's a little younger. You don't know how he's going to acclimate there. There's bigger risks. And so Major League Baseball has identified those risks and what they're trying to do is say we want to eliminate those risks entirely. But don't for a second think that the players association or the players themselves in the big leagues and the minor leagues just look at this and say, oh, well, yeah, you know, if I'm a big leaguer, you could make the argument that you would think a big leaguer would say, well, we're in the big leagues. What do we care about a high school kid for right now? It's not that they're paying attention to that, that decision in that way. What they're saying is, what is the bigger goal of Major League Baseball by doing this? And the bigger goal for Major League Baseball, as I said, is they want more control. So they want to cap spending in the draft, they want to eliminate leverage, and they want to create less opportunity for players to be able to get paid. Funny enough, that's exactly what they're also trying to do in the big leagues. So if they can accomplish that at the younger levels, then naturally their next step is, well, we also want to do that at the big league level. So for them, the salary cap solves that at the big league level. So this is their version of that at the lower levels. That's all this is. And so everybody who's just like, freaking out and assuming that this is just going to get passed through, you guys need to take a beat, pause, and actually recognize the game that is being played between Major League Baseball and the union every year. Every CBA negotiation, right? Like, there are various proposals that go back and forth, and the majority of the things in each proposal don't ever get agreed to. Right? Because why would MLB agree to certain things the union asked for? And why would the union agree to certain things that the teams ask for? So there are reasons why, as a unit, Major League Baseball or the PA agree to certain things. And it's much more strategic than merely being like, oh, okay, I guess we'll just accept this. So I think everybody's initial reaction is, you know, doom and gloom. And that's just where I would ask everybody to pause a moment and just recognize, guys, this is a negotiation. Like, even in the political landscape, right? Like, our president right now talks about it a lot. Like, it's, it's a negotiation. You don't share all this information. They're not sharing really what they're trying to achieve. So our job as advisors is to, through our experience, recognize, well, what's, what's actually going on down the road here. What, what do I believe that they're really trying to Accomplish. And. And that's what I just shared.

[A]

Yeah. And I think a great way for us to kind of take it home in this episode. And your final thoughts on this is that as I was hearing you talk, it is a negotiation and it is something that is being proposed and it is considered. The other thing that comes to mind is the way that colleges start recruiting is you still have the impact of nil. You still have the impact of the powerhouse programs and coaches, and you've had some amazing guests on your show, you know, talking about the college nil landscape. Does this change the way that colleges are now approaching high school players in the recruiting process knowing that they could potentially have more access to better players who aren't going to forego college to go to the draft or the major leagues because of these proposals and changes? And if so, how do you foresee that happening?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I talked about it a little bit, but I think ultimately it's leverage for them too. Right. If you're a college and you know a kid can't sign out of the draft, well, then what's going to cause you to pay him top dollar? Right. The only thing that would cause you to pay him top dollar is, well, if this guy doesn't come to us, he's going to go to a different program. And so in order for us to commit him, he's got to come here and we've got to offer him this package. But the package, whatever it is, is going to naturally be less because he doesn't have the option to go to out of the draft. So right there you can see the value in players themselves being able to maintain the ability to be drafted out of high school. Right. Even if they have the intention of going to college, there's still leverage and value associated with it. On the flip side, for a college, there's a ton of value if kids can't sign out of high school because they just have less options. And so, again, as players. Right. We're all here, you know, on behalf of the players. From a player's perspective, this is not anything that we want to agree to. It's. It would not be good. You know, they're not changing the number of teams in the minor leagues. Right. Like in that proposal, they made it clear that the number of teams in the minor leagues would stay the same. Well, if the number of teams in the minor leagues is going to stay the same, then what's going to happen? How are these organizations going to ultimately add players to their system? Well, then they're Going to draft a ton more college players. Yeah, but is that making the game better?

[A]

Right.

[B]

Are guys now getting an opportunity to play pro ball merely because they're coming out of college, not because they're good enough to be in pro ball? Like, how is that making the game better? It's not. And so again, we want a free market system that allows the team to rise to the top. It's both good for the teams, but it's also good for the players. It's going to make them better. Right. It's going to, it's going to demand the most out of them. And anytime we limit that, it's going to have a serious negative consequence. Again, I don't expect Major League Baseball to care about that, but I certainly do expect players to fight for their rights. And I hope that everybody who's hearing this recognizes that agreeing to this would be a terrible, terrible outcome for, for players themselves. I just want everybody to understand, like, you know, whether it's a multi year contract that you see agreed to, whether it's anything that's being thrown around in the media, as far as these negotiations go, you always just want to take a minute and ask yourself what's going on behind the scenes. Right? Context matters. I've said it a million times on this podcast. Parents ask me questions and they think that the answer is black and white, that there's a blueprint that applies to every player 100% of the time. And it doesn't. There's always context. Context matters in these things. And so I think the lesson for everybody is really just to recognize it's not good enough, just to be told, this is how it goes. You really need to think about what is our specific situation, how is that going to apply to us? And even in something like this, a parent who hears this and says, oh, no, you know, again, like mentally planning for this actually being agreed to. What I'm telling you is like, listen, don't change anything on your end. Keep moving forward, assuming that nothing is going to change. But obviously, as these negotiations continue, as things start to develop and as we start getting more information, obviously, yeah, I mean, that's what this podcast is for. I'll certainly hop on and talk about it. The union is very good at what they do. I have all faith in the union to, you know, defend players and look out for players. It's what their job is. And so I don't for a second think that what they're doing is saying, oh, okay, sounds good, that's not happening at all. So if that's not happening to them, I think that encourages me and it should encourage everybody listening that they also shouldn't just jump to that conclusion, assuming it's going to happen as well. So I hope this episode was helpful, everybody. Obviously, I'll come on and do more of these as we get more information, but if you guys have any questions, you can send me an email@matt most valuable agent.com if you guys like this episode, make sure that you like it on YouTube, subscribe to the podcast and share it with another parent or another player that you think it could help. So until next time, guys, I appreciate it. I'll see you again.

[A]

Sam.