Motley Fool Money

Episode Title: 2026: The Year of the Mega IPOs?

Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Tyler Crow
Contributors: Matt Frankel, John Quest

Episode Overview

This episode of Motley Fool Money delves into the anticipated explosion of mega IPOs in 2026, spotlighting major private players rumored to be going public, especially from the AI and space sectors. The team also examines breaking news from Rocket Lab, analyzes the evolving investment climate around initial public offerings, and wraps up by highlighting IPOs on their watchlists.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rocket Lab: The Dual Press Releases (00:05–05:37)

• Incident Recap:

  • Rocket Lab announced a rupture of a stage one testing tank for its new neutron rocket, followed shortly by a positive press release about its successful electron rocket launch.
  • Stock Impact: Shares dipped by 5%.

• Panel Analysis:

  • John Quest [01:49]:

    “The timing of two press releases right there together is a little bit suspect, but I don’t think we need to be overly cynical here, Tyler.”

    • Test-to-failure is a normal part of rocket development.
    • Points out similar past incidents with Blue Origin and SpaceX.
    • Investors’ main concern is potential launch delays more than the hardware issue itself.

  • Matt Frankel [03:04]:

    “Delays like this and incidents like this are par for the course for all of these space companies.”

    • Charts historical delays for Neutron’s debut: initially for 2024, now repeatedly pushed back.
    • Notes that setbacks are inevitable in space innovation; warns that investors should expect them.

• Space Stocks as Investments:

  • John Quest [04:32]:

    • Loves space but finds public space stocks “a little bit more on the speculative end.”
    • Rocket Lab is “a real business … on my radar.”

  • Matt Frankel [05:17]:

    • No direct exposure yet, though mentions adjacent investments.
    • Calls Rocket Lab “absolutely a real business and … worth watching.”

2. The 2026 IPO Market & the Surge of Mega Listings (06:15–11:12)

• Emerging Blockbusters:

  • SpaceX:
    • Reportedly lining up banks for a possible 2026 IPO—massive investor appetite, even prior to official plans.
  • AI Giants:
    • Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are rumored candidates.
  • Implication: “Largest private companies in the world” could all hit public markets in a single year.

• Market Context & Timing:

  • Tyler Crow [06:15]:

    “If this surge of IPOs is some concoction of the vibes are great right now to raise massive amounts of capital…Or is it, ‘we better get the bag before the AI speculative stock bubble bursts?’”

  • Matt Frankel [07:32]:

    “We’re seeing kind of a perfect storm forming in the IPO market.”

    • AI boom drives need for ongoing capital (cites “tens of billions” in commitments–Tyler later notes “hundreds of billions”).
    • Better macro environment: cooling inflation, lower interest rates, and regulatory support boost IPO prospects.

3. How to Assess IPOs as an Investor (08:56–11:12)

• Due Diligence & Caution:

  • John Quest [08:56]:

    “I want to look at long-term trends and I don’t want to necessarily see big recent improvements… There are times when companies will engineer … financial results in such a way that it gets us maximum excitement going.”

    • Warns against “pre-IPO glow up”—engineered financials for IPO excitement.
    • Recommends waiting to observe true performance post-IPO.

  • Matt Frankel [10:11]:

    “I’m really not interested in buying a newly public company whose business is unproven and unprofitable.… I’m happy to … wait till they’ve been public for a few years and really see how their businesses and financial results develop.”

    • Reluctance to invest in hot, unprofitable IPOs—lessons from previous bubble cycles.
    • Prefers businesses with long operating histories and established profitability (e.g., Klarna).

4. IPOs on the Radar – Panel Picks (11:49–15:45)

• Matt Frankel [12:01]:
  Plaid

  • Backstory:
    • Connects bank accounts to apps; key fintech infrastructure.
    • $6B last known valuation; previously courted by Visa.
    • Revenue up 25% last year, but data is limited; last acquisition attempt blocked over regulatory concerns.

  “Visa wanted to buy Plaid…I think for $4 billion about three or four years ago… they abandoned their plans because of regulatory concerns.”

• John Quest [13:06]:
  Anduril

  • About:
    • Military/defense tech company, driven by founder Palmer Luckey.
    • Unique: proprietary R&D roadmap, autonomy focus (AI software “Lattice” manages aerial/underwater/ground hardware).
    • Last valued at $30B, aiming higher.
    • Potential to be “viewed more like an Apple than a Lockheed Martin.”
  • Notable Founder Quote:

    “He [Palmer Luckey] reminds me of Elon Musk in a way.… he really seems to be on this mission to make a better defense business… driven by autonomy… looking at the world for what it is, not what we would like it to be.”

• Tyler Crow [15:15]:
  EquipmentShare.com (Ticker: EQPT)

  • Going public imminently (this week).
  • What it does: Construction equipment rental, with integrated telematics and software platform for job site efficiency.
  • Sector Insight:
    • Serious opportunity in boosting construction’s notoriously low productivity gains.
    • Cites strong long-term returns from similar companies (United Rental, McGrath RentCorp, U-Haul).
  • Quote:

    “Anyone who like hears equipment rental for construction and thinks, ‘oh bo, boring, that’s going to be a lousy business,’ I would implore you go look up the long-term returns of other equipment rental companies… tell me those returns are boring.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rocket Lab’s Delay:

  • Matt Frankel [03:04]:

    “This is like the fifth delay that I know of with the neutron rocket itself… If you invest in Rocket Lab or any of these other space companies, one of the few things you can be sure of is that this won’t be the company’s last setback.”

• On Pre-IPO Financial Engineering:

  • John Quest [08:56]:

    “There are times when companies will engineer… financial results in such a way that it kind of gets us maximum excitement going… then after going public, the results kind of go back to the normal trend line.”

• On the IPO Boom’s Drivers:

  • Matt Frankel [07:32]:

    “The AI boom… companies like OpenAI and Anthropic specifically have committed tens of billions of dollars in capex already with plans to accelerate it in the future.”

Important Timestamps & Segments

• Rocket Lab News Analysis: 00:05–05:37
• Space investments: Are they too speculative? 04:32–05:37
• The Coming IPO Boom & Context: 06:15–08:56
• Panel’s Framework for Assessing IPOs: 08:56–11:12
• IPO Picks on the Radar: 11:49–15:45

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Measured Skepticism: The trio approaches the hype around both space tech and AI IPOs with healthy caution, focusing on the risks of speculation and engineered financials.
• Optimism for True Innovators: All agree there’s enormous potential in fintech, defense, and industrials when the underlying business is substantial and the founder mission-driven.
• Advice for Listeners: Wait for proof of durable business health post-IPO, and don’t get swept up by speculative excitement.
• Investing Mindset: “This is a real business and it’s one that’s really worth watching.” [Matt Frankel on Rocket Lab, 05:17]

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