Motley Fool Money – "3 Bold Predictions to Start 2026"

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Tyler Crowe
Guests: Matt Frankel, John Quast

Overview

In this episode, Tyler Crowe returns with fellow Motley Fool contributors Matt Frankel and John Quast to kick off 2026 with "three bold predictions" for the investing year ahead. The conversation orbits around artificial intelligence, energy (specifically solar power), and the homebuilding sector. Each contributor proposes a headline-grabbing prediction, responds to critiques from the others, and builds their investment rationale. The panel also rounds out the episode with three individual 'stocks on the radar’ picks, keeping the discussion tightly focused on actionable insights for long-term investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

[00:00] Episode Kickoff

• First episode together in a while due to the holidays and illness
• Each co-host presents a bold 2026 investing prediction, followed by peer feedback and a defense of their thesis

[01:14] Prediction #1: Alphabet’s Gemini Will Catch Up to ChatGPT

John Quast’s Take

• Prediction: “2026 will be the year that Alphabet's Gemini erases ChatGPT's market share advantage. …Gemini will reach market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT this year.” (John, 01:14)
• Gemini is rapidly gaining ground:
  • ChatGPT lost market share: dropped by 19 points to 68% over the past year (SimilarWeb data)
  • Gemini climbed to 18%, much of that coming after Gemini 3’s launch
• Key drivers:
  • Momentum matters: Gemini’s surge points to real dynamism
  • Product integration: Tightly woven into popular Alphabet products (Gmail, etc)
  • Vertical integration: Makes its own TPUs, has cloud scale, can subsidize losses
  • Ecosystem longevity: Alphabet’s deep pockets mean Gemini can be nurtured longer than most AI projects
• “If [Gemini] got to 40% market share in the coming year, I think that would probably be enough to pull even, because ChatGPT is losing ground to other players as well.” (John, 02:48)
• Concerns about OpenAI’s funding needs (~$100bn over a few years); losing share could make raising capital tougher

Panel Feedback

• Tyler: 6/10 belief, sees it as “directionally I like it, but I think it's pretty bold for one year.” (Tyler, 01:28)
• Matt: 2/10, agrees Gemini is catching up but believes it’ll take longer: “I just think ChatGPT is going to lose market share overall over time, but I think it's going to take much longer than a year for anyone to truly catch up.” (Matt, 01:38)

Notable Follow-Up

• Matt asks about other “sleeper” AIs like Claude or Grok:
  • John highlights Elon Musk’s xAI (Grok) because “Musk has incredible incentive to build AI for autonomous vehicles, for robotics... So I wouldn't discount xAI's ability to take some market share here.” (John, 04:07)

[05:33] Prediction #2: Solar Industry Will Double Market Performance

Tyler Crowe’s Take

• Prediction: “I think the solar industry is going to double the performance of the market in 2026.” (Tyler, 05:33)
• People worry about solar subsidies going away, but Tyler argues this isn’t a death knell for the industry:
  • Capital allocation for utilities/hyperscalers weighs more than just subsidies (timing, grid needs, local economics)
  • Key insight: “The speed to deploy new electrons to the grid… is the fastest to do it [solar], right around with natural gas turbines. But between those two, there is more than enough market in terms of increased demand to go around.” (Tyler, 06:37)
  • Natural gas is bottlenecked: GE Vernova (top US gas turbine maker) is sold out for years; slow ramp up (till 2028+ to expand capacity)
  • Solar can deploy & scale faster: Companies like First Solar build new facilities within 18-24 months
  • Texas as a case study: ERCOT (Texas grid) led US in solar added recently; low land/project costs, strong demand due to AI data centers
• On pricing: “If everyone's desperate for electrons… and the subsidies go away, I think that solar panel pricing is just going to reprice up to a profitable level such that it won't matter if subsidies are there or not. It's going to be very cost competitive for anybody trying to make those sort of things.” (Tyler, 09:23)

Panel Feedback

• Matt: “I'm at about a 7 out of 10 on this one. I do think this is the year investors finally realize solar is going to be the short-term solution to AI power consumption. But a double maybe?” (Matt, 05:58)
• John: “Yeah, I'm like a 8 out of 10 here. Tyler, you've talked about this before. I think you've made a good case.” (John, 06:09)

Batteries Go Hand-in-Hand

• John asks about implication for battery storage if solar demand spikes
• Tyler: “Battery storage will kind of go hand in hand… smoothing out intermittency of, you know, when the sun doesn't shine and reducing grid strain that the fluctuation of solar presents will be the key weaknesses for solar power as a long-term energy option.” (Tyler, 10:14)

[11:04] Prediction #3: Homebuilder Stocks Will Surge (+30%)

Matt Frankel’s Take

• Prediction: “I'm going to go out on a limb here and I'm going to say that the average homebuilder stock will rise by 30% in 2026.” (Matt, 11:04)
• Rationale:
  • Homebuilders have been beaten down, trading at single-digit P/E multiples, priced for negative growth
  • Recent years saw cyclical swings (2022 drop, 2023 rebound e.g., Greenbrick Partners up 115%)
  • Interest rates expected to drop: “median expectation is for two or three more rate cuts this year. I believe this should help push mortgage rates down well below 6%.”
  • New homes often cheaper than comparables in resale, remain attractive to buyers
  • Margins are historically high; market rebound could mean rapid bottom-line expansion

Panel Feedback

• Tyler: “As much as I do like homebuilder companies, I was actually at a 4 out of 10 for this specific one.” (Tyler, 11:22)
• John: “I'm at a 6 out of 10. I think I can get there. Tell me more, Matt.” (John, 11:28)

The Counterpoint

• Tyler: Risks that unemployment and negative perceptions about the job market (esp. fear of AI impact) may dampen homebuying more than rates will help
• Matt agrees this is a fair risk: “If my prediction is wrong, it's more likely to be because of economic concerns than because of interest rate headwinds. But I still think there’s enough pent-up demand...” (Matt, 13:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• John (on Google AI’s late run):
  “A big chunk of the market share gains came late in the year after Alphabet released Gemini 3. So this isn't just the chatbot, right? This is also the technology that it's popular Nano Banana video creation software is built on.” (02:18)

• Tyler (on solar’s time-to-market):
  “First Solar has been building new facilities and their average turnaround time for a new facility has been something like 18 months to 24 months. So much faster than what GE Vernova is talking about here. And I think this is going to be a major capital decision for people who are desperate to add new electrons.” (07:55)

• Matt (on homebuilder margins):
  “Home builder margins, they remain historically high and any market rebound could really result in massive bottom line growth.” (12:33)

Timestamps — Important Segments

• 01:14 – John’s AI Prediction: Gemini’s market share gains & implications
• 03:32 – Matt & John debate “sleeper” AI challengers (Grok, Claude, etc)
• 05:33 – Tyler’s Solar Prediction: doubling market performance; rationale & supply constraints
• 09:47 – The role of battery storage & energy grid bottlenecks
• 11:04 – Matt’s Homebuilder Prediction: thesis, market context, and peer reactions
• 13:46 – Summary of three predictions; tee-up of stock picks
• 15:05 – Stocks on the Radar: Prologis (PLD), Array Technologies (ARRY), Floor & Decor (FND)
• 18:08 – John’s rationale for Floor & Decor and cyclical perspective on home renovation retail

Stocks on the Radar [15:05]

Matt Frankel: Prologis (PLD)

• Industrial real estate leader, near 52-week high but below all-time highs
• Quietly entering data centers, uniquely positioned for AI data center infrastructure boom
• CEO Hamid Mogadam: current market “among the most compelling he’s seen in 40 years.” (Matt, 15:44)

Tyler Crowe: Array Technologies (ARRY)

• Specializes in utility-scale solar panel trackers (devices that boost efficiency by following the sun)
• Growing revenue, improving margins, strong book-to-bill ratios
• “As a company...to double down on my idea of solar stocks outperforming, I think this is a company that's been growing revenue incredibly fast...” (Tyler, 16:51)

John Quast: Floor & Decor (FND)

• Focused flooring/home improvement retailer, like Home Depot but specialized
• Growth potential as existing-home sales recover (after multi-year slump); planning to double stores
• “Even though the headwind has been blowing now for a few years, the business is still growing, it is still profitable, and right now it trades at its cheapest valuation ever...” (John, 18:55)

Language and Tone

The discussion is energetic, collaborative, and gently competitive, befitting a trio of long-time analysts challenging and refining each other's thinking. The hosts regularly joke about their persistent focus on housing and solar stocks, with Tyler quipping, “I think we're almost at a point where we might have to actually call this the Housing and Solar show for 2026.” (Tyler, 19:31)

Episode Wrap-Up

• The team wraps up having offered three sector predictions and three actionable stock ideas.
• Listeners are cautioned not to buy or sell based solely on the episode (Motley Fool standards).

For investors seeking a breakdown of 2026’s possible investing priorities:
This episode lays out the “big three” trends Fools are watching—AI’s competitive landscape (Alphabet vs. OpenAI), the role of solar in meeting energy demand from new tech, and the prospects for a homebuilder rebound as interest rates ease. Each picks a stock they see as best positioned for these trends, offering a concise playbook for the start of the year.