Ricky Mulvey (3:40)

Lauren Thomas and Berber Gin have a story about the deal in the Wall Street Journal this morning. And they wrote that, quote, the acquisition could help boost Alphabet's efforts in cloud computing, an important and growing business, but one where it has lagged behind its peers, end quote. Do you agree? Is this a space where Alphabet has lagged behind?

Jason Moser (3:57)

I think so, for the most part. I mean, when we look at the evolution of this space, this speaks to, I think, how quickly we saw companies like Amazon and even Microsoft ramping up their cloud strategies. There's a lot to that first mover advantage. And I think Amazon through AWS has really been the poster child for exploiting that. If you look at the differences there. Right. Initially, Google's cloud strategy focused very heavily on developers and startups, which that was fine, it was valuable, but it didn't really capture this large enterprise market opportunity as opposed to something like Amazon did. They started very much focused on enterprise level solutions. Now, with all that said, I want to be clear, like why we say Google has lagged and it has. Right. But it is not underperforming. I mean, they are absolutely growing. You saw annual revenue from Google's cloud services increase from $9 billion in 2019 to $43 billion in 2024. And the announcement today certainly gives them the opportunity to keep that ball rolling. So yes, they've lagged, but they are making every effort to try to pick up some of that share and all signs indicate that they are actually picking up share in the space. So that's encouraging.

Ricky Mulvey (5:07)

Let's look at the deal itself. This is an all cash deal. Google is not issuing new shares in order to take Wiz. Does that signal anything to you? What's it mean for shareholders when a company is just plug in cash to go get another business and not using any other financing means?

Jason Moser (5:23)

I mean, I think it's encouraging in this case when you, when you consider the size of, of Alphabet's balance sheet, right, you mentioned it earlier, they've $95 billion plus in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet there. So you got to figure out a way to put some of that capital to use. You can't let it just sit there for too long or else investors are going to start asking what are you doing for me now? Right? It's not about what, what have you done for me lately. It's like what are you going to do for me next? And when you have a balance sheet of that size, you really have to start being able to try to come up with some solutions to put it to good work. And this seems like a reasonable case. Although I will say, I mean this is not a cheap deal by any means for, for Alphabet, for Google. I mean if we, if we look at the numbers for Wiz, I mean, I think there's something like $350 million in recurring revenue in 2023. They're, they're aiming for projecting $1 billion this year, 2025. That still puts this company that's 32 times sales you're paying for this business. Now maybe it works out, but again, it goes back to that point. They are absolutely paying up for it.

Ricky Mulvey (6:28)

Cybersecurity is one of those areas that is well outside of my circle of competence. If you like the Lynchian approach, cybersecurity is kind of tough because you can't, you can't really sample the goods. You gotta watch YouTube tutorials which may or may not be sponsored. You look at demos, you hear what other people are saying. You can look at net revenue retention. Still, this is one that is outside of my circle of competence. Are you still a cybersecurity ETF guy or do you, do you have any favorites in this space for investors who know that, that this is where companies are spending a lot of money?

Jason Moser (6:59)

Well, I personally have enjoyed learning more about the cybersecurity space as I've come along as an investor. But I will say, I mean, I love the ETF perspective when it comes to this. That approach I think works very well. You look at ETFs out there, like the First Trust, NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF, that would be one way to play it. And that's up almost 200% over the last five years. Well ahead of the market. Now with that said, I do think that with cybersecurity, because it's such a broad offering now, right. It's not just like they're not all apples to apples. And there is a way, I think, for investors to take a basket approach to it by owning a handful or several leaders in the space. And I'm thinking of companies like Crowdstrike, Cloudflare, Zscaler, maybe Palo Alto. So I think there are a couple of different ways to approach it. But absolutely, for folks who feel like cybersecurity is too difficult to understand, it's outside their circle of competence, that may be true, but it also is a very, very important space and it's just going to grow in importance as time goes on. And so looking at those ETF options I think is a great way to, great way to do it.

Ricky Mulvey (8:03)

Let's talk about this BYD story. So Chinese automaker BYD announced a line of cars that has a battery that can provide about 250 miles of range on a 5 minute supercharge. For context, Tesla superchargers can do about 170 miles, but that takes 15 minutes. And who has the time for that? When you look at this story, jmo, is this, is this a cool trick or do you think this is a transformational moment for evs? Is the time to plug in is pretty close to the time it takes to fill up a combustion engine with regular gasoline.

Jason Moser (8:37)

I think this is a big deal. I mean this reminds me of range anxiety is a real thing. Ricky. I get range anxiety with my lawnmower. Okay? I've got like a little less than an acre to mow here. I have a battery powered lawnmower. It's terrific, I love it. But you know, those batteries run out and then you gotta charge them back up and it takes forever. I got this new lawnmower for Christmas with this rapid charger, man, it cuts the time of charging in half. So if, if I'm having that kind of range anxiety with my lawnmower, I can only imagine how people feel with their cars. So I think this is the trend that needs to continue for EVs to become more attractive to the masses. Because that really is, you know, when you ask people what, what's holding you back? Typically it is something that revolves around range anxiety. And so reducing those charging Times could have a very material impact on the upside for, for all of these EV companies.

Ricky Mulvey (9:25)

Yeah. Worst case scenario, with your mower running out of battery, your lawn has a mullet. But in this case you could be stranded in the middle of nowhere. Is you realize you don't have the right plug. Or maybe there's too long of a wait. Now it's going to take you an extra hour to get somewhere. I think it's a big deal too.

Jason Moser (9:40)

Give it the old Kenny Powers, right?

Ricky Mulvey (9:43)

Oh yeah.

Lauren Thomas (9:43)

Oh yeah.

Ricky Mulvey (9:44)

Bloomberg points out that BYD now at a $162 billion market cap, this is one that investors are excited about. The company does not sell cars in the United States anyway. This is now a company that is worth more than Ford, General Motors and Volkswagen combined. You see investors paying up for growth because BYD sold about 4.4.3 million cars in 2024. I want to be clear, that comes from a website called carnews china.com JMO maybe take it with a grain of salt, but if we believe those numbers, that is an increase of 40% year on year. In the group that I mentioned previously, Ford, GM and Volkswagen, they sold about 19 million cars in 2024. 5% increase from the previous year. What's the market saying giving BYD that kind of premium though?

Jason Moser (10:31)

I think that's fair. Take that, take that number with a grain of salt. This is obviously a market with which we have access to limited information. But I think ultimately when you look at the optimism in byd, this is just because the market ultimately sees where the puck is headed, right. And views BYD as a company helping lead that charge in its respective economy. See what I did there? Leading the charge, Ricky?

Ricky Mulvey (10:53)

Oh yeah, nice.

Jason Moser (10:54)

It's. So I think it's less about the numbers, but though those numbers I think tell a tale, right? BYD growing more than 40% versus what you said, 5% for those others, that's a big deal. I think it's ultimately less about the numbers today though, and more about the direction in, with in which they're trending. Just like, just like we always say with the market, it's a forward looking mechanism and these are forward looking numbers that are telling us BYD is clearly doing something right.

Ricky Mulvey (11:20)

One thing that I'm somewhat hopeful of is, you know, I don't see myself driving a BYD car even if they are able to be sold in the United States. But I'm hoping there's some market compression that comes from this because right now BYD offers advanced driver's Assistance for new vehicles that cost less than $10,000. Yes, there's subsidies there. And while we may not see a self driving EV from China anytime soon in the States, I'm hoping that might put some pressure on carmakers here saying when you buy a car, all of the software is included. We're not doing this as a monthly subscription thing. Is this fantasy thinking or do you think self driving is going to eventually become a part of an overall car purchase?

Jason Moser (11:57)

I don't think that's fantasy thinking. I mean this ultimately is going to push all the autos to improve and compete or ultimately be left behind. Now I think as we see sort of the full self driving technology, as it becomes more and more common and more reliable and more mainstream, then I think it becomes more like a standard that most vehicle companies would be offering. And you mentioned it just right there with ADAs. Right. I mean that's, that's something that has made a lot of progress and now we see more and more ads and cars today is just standard offering. But I think in the near term, until we get there, companies see this as a way to monetize beyond the sale and that obviously is very attractive. Right? Sell the car and then maintain some kind of an ongoing relationship. That kind of rubs against the historic norm of what ultimately buying cars is about. But I think if everyone has it and everyone's charging for it, then someone is going to jump in there eventually and say, hey, you know what, we're going to include it in the price of our car, not force you to pay something more ongoing. And that could ultimately be a competitive edge. So I think as this stuff becomes more mainstream then we see it kind of follow sort of that same pathways as the traditional ADA as we're seeing in a lot of vehicles today.

Ricky Mulvey (13:14)

Look at that. We talked about Tesla without talking about Tesla. You see what I did there? Let's do this. Gambling slash not gambling story. Robinhood rolling out prediction markets in its app. It's tried to do this before, especially with the super bowl got shut down. I think it did it with the presidential election. But now having a part of its app where traders can bet on the federal funds rate and the outcomes of March Madness games. We'll focus on March Madness because I have to think, jmo, that this is a real problem with sportsbooks where they have had, let's say for a spread bet that -110 -110 bet since the mid 20th century and as these online sports books have exploded, you haven't seen that margin really collapse. And now it finally appears that that may be doing so with these prediction markets as they get more widespread. Do you think this is a real problem for your sports books like FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings?

Jason Moser (14:09)

It's possible, but I don't think, really, if anything, I think this could force them to evolve or bring more offerings to their platform. But as it stands right now, these are a bit different. Right? And I think when you look at Robinhood, for example, and this is another way for them to potentially boost that average revenue per user, we saw in the most recent quarter that that number grew by 102% from a year ago. And if you look at Robinhood today at 25.6 million funded accounts as of February 2025. Now you compare that to something like a DraftKings. With their most recent quarter, their total, their total customer base grew 42% year over year, but just 10.1 million. Now, with that said, these are again, very different offerings. You're going to Robinhood for one thing, you're going to DraftKings for another. But I do think incorporating this sort of prediction market app into Robinhood, it's interesting, but I think it could be even more interesting for the potential for these sports books to evolve into and keep offering more for their platforms to increase engagement and ultimately the active users and money flowing through those networks.

Ricky Mulvey (15:21)

This is being done in partnership with a company called Kalshi, where you can, if you look at their website, you can find everything from who's going to win the first round of March Madness games to what will the average temperature be in New York City tomorrow. They're sort of cleaning up gambling in a way, or giving it a veneer, I should say. What is the difference between a sports event contract and gambling?

Jason Moser (15:42)

Well, speaking of the first round of ncaa, let's just go Wofford Terriers, okay? This is a reach. They got seeded up against number two, Tennessee. I'm not, I'm not calling a win here, Ricky, but. But these guys are a strong team. So let's go, Wofford. With that said, the difference between sports event contract and gambling, gambling ultimately is a game of chance where you're betting against the house, right? You get set odds. Now, those odds can fluctuate, but it's just ultimately a game of chance where you're betting against the house. Event contracts function more like a marketplace where folks traders can buy and sell those contracts based on predictions of an event's outcome. And those prices can fluctuate based on perceived probabilities. And then also oftentimes those contracts are structured as derivatives which are just ultimately financial instruments that derive their value from an underlying asset or perhaps eventually. So certainly a much more evolved, but I would say much more likely to constantly be changing it would be the nature of a sports events contract. Whereas gambling is a little bit simpler. I guess.

Ricky Mulvey (16:50)

So Wofford, if you for a $1 contract, it's 6 cents. Not a lot of people believe in your terriers versus Tennessee JMO. I'm sorry?

Jason Moser (16:58)

Well, there were a lot of people midway through the season, Ricky, that didn't believe that our boys were going to win the Southern Conference, but they really, they really brought home the bacon and that was, that was a tremendous win to get that Southern Conference tournament. And I think getting into the NCAA this year is a victory in and of itself. So congratulations guys.

Ricky Mulvey (17:16)

And then as we wrap up here, any thoughts on sort of investing and gambling adjacent activities being in the same app? Yeah, I know you can trade options on your Schwab, but this seems a little different once we're having the sport event outcomes being able to be traded upon in the same place where you're buying ETFs and stocks for your IRA.

Jason Moser (17:37)

Well, I have to believe you can guess my answer on this. I do not like equating the two. I mean gambling and investing are two very, very different things. And, and so I don't like equating the two, particularly for folks who are more interested on the investing side. We don't want that mindset to ever really sink in that, well, investing is really just gambling because it's not right. I mean it's based fundamentally on businesses and how those businesses are performing. And so I think bringing these two under the same platform can send mixed messages, particularly for younger investors just getting into it. It can promote less than rational behavior. So yeah, not the biggest fan. But listen, you know, we just have to deal with the cards we've been given.

Ricky Mulvey (18:17)

I see what you did there. All right, Jason Moser, appreciate you being here. Thank you for your time and your insight.

Jason Moser (18:22)

Thank you.

Ricky Mulvey (18:29)

All right, up next, Allison Southwick and Robert Brockamp take on some of the questions you emailed us at podcasts@fool.com this time answering ones about keeping cash on the sideline and inflation assumptions for retirement.

Robert Brockamp (18:51)

Your data is like gold to hackers. They're selling your passwords, bank details and private messages.

Ricky Mulvey (18:57)

McAfee helps stop them.

Lauren Thomas (18:59)

Secure VPN keeps your online activity private.

Robert Brockamp (19:02)

AI powered text scam detector spots phishing attempts instantly and with award winning antivirus.

Lauren Thomas (19:07)

You get top tier hacker protection plus.

Robert Brockamp (19:10)

You'Ll get up to $2 million in.

Lauren Thomas (19:11)

Identity theft coverage, all for just $39.99 for your first year. Visit McAfee cancel anytime terms apply.

Robert Brockamp (19:21)

Our first question comes from Charlie I've been listening to Motley Fool Money for about a year now and have transitioned into the financial services industry, building a career in financial planning and wealth management, mostly due to my interest in the field that your podcast provided me. Oh that's nice. With the current market situation and outlook, it made me think about the common sentiment to have cash on the sideline when buying opportunities present themselves. Is there a guideline for a percentage of net worth that should be kept available for situations like we are seeing?

Lauren Thomas (19:52)

Well first Charlie, congrats on the start of your career. You know, I would say that working in the financial services industry can be rewarding on so many levels, financially, intellectually, socially, as you work with people. But the first few years can be tough depending on how you get into the biz. So best of luck to you and if you like the work, stick with it because it'll eventually get better. As for the amount of cash as a percentage of net worth, it's dependent on each person's situation. But I'll start with a few foolish guidelines. As we said a million times before, any money you need in the next three to five years should be out of the stock market in cash. Maybe short intermediate term bonds. Then there's that emergency fund of three to six months worth of essential expenses in case something happens to your job. Some experts recommend that it should be even more and I do think that the current conditions weren't having a bigger emergency fund, and I'll talk a little bit more about that in my answer to the next question. Now beyond that, you might want to have some so called dry powder in your portfolio so that you'd be ready to buy stocks if they go on sale. And a rule of thumb that we've had in fuldom for many years is that amount could be 5% to 10% of your portfolio. Given that the valuation of the US stock market is on the high side, I can see the argument for having actually a little bit more in cash than normal. But cash is over the long term a drag on the portfolio's performance if if you don't eventually put it to good use. So don't go overboard, especially if you're young and you're many many years from needing the money. Another strategy that some investors follow is to not reinvest dividends or interest paid by any of their stocks, bonds or funds, and you instead let that accumulate as cash until you eventually find a good way to invest it. So that could be another opportunity fund, so to speak. And finally, as someone who's still working and ideally contributing to your 401k every paycheck, maybe an IRA as well, there's always more cash going into your portfolio. So you could use that cash to invest in what you see as undervalued opportunities.

Robert Brockamp (21:41)

Next question comes from a worried fool. I work in tech and believe that I could be laid off in a few months. Oh man, I'm sorry. Should I still contribute to my Roth ira? My plan is to pull the contribution in case I get laid off, but I don't know if there are any tax implications I should know about.

Lauren Thomas (21:59)

Well, I'm very sorry to hear that. And I do think that now is a good time for every worker to take a good look at their job security. Right. We've all heard about the cutbacks and layoffs in the federal government, which is also affecting employers who get money from the government, government contractors, universities, museums, and it'll spill out into the businesses around those employers, restaurants and dry cleaners and whatever. Across the economy, layoffs in February were the highest since 2020, which was back during the days of the pandemic. And I also think with the uncertainty over tariffs and potential trade scuffles, employers are becoming a little more hesitant to hire. And we saw that in the jobs report that came out in early March. But this has been going on in tech for a few years. So I think our worried fool is right to think about making sure that he has enough money on the side or she has enough money on the side to weather a job loss. So to get to the question about whether you should contribute money to a Roth IRA, I can't give personalized advice, but more than 20 years ago, I can't believe it was that long ago. I wrote an article about using the Roth IRA as an emergency fund because you can always take out the money you contributed tax and penalty free. It's pretty easy. However, once you withdraw the earnings before age 59 and a half, you may pay taxes and penalties. And if the emergency never arises, then that money just keeps growing on its tax free way. I will point out that this is just for the Roth IRA. The Roth 401 is different. Every withdrawal from a Roth 401 is a proportional mix of contributions and earnings. So a non qualified early withdrawal will be partially taxed and penalized. And then finally I'll just say the other thing to think about is think through how likely you'll need the money if you do get laid off, right? Does your company have a history of offering a good severance package or do they tend to do the bare minimum? What kind of unemployment benefits could you expect in your state because each state is different? And what other backup plans do you have for getting a job or downsizing expenses? Those are all factors in the size of your emergency fund and where you put it.

Robert Brockamp (23:57)

Our next question comes from Lance. I'm going to retire in a few years. How should I plan for higher inflation for longer? Are treasury inflation protected securities tips, a good idea for a portion of my portfolio?

Lauren Thomas (24:12)

Well, Lance, I don't have a prediction about whether inflation will be higher for longer, but I think it's a possibility that you should always factor into your plan. As for what the experts are predicting, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve does a regular survey of economists and they expect inflation to be just 2.3% on average over the next decade. And that's also what the bond market is predicting, which could be derived by just looking at the difference in interest rates between the 10 year treasury and the 10 year tips. That seems a little low to me, but that's what they're predicting. Which brings us to tips. Basically, here's how they work. They pay an interest rate that is fixed at purchase and the principal adjusts upward or downward every six months according to increases or decreases in the consumer Price Index. And at maturity, you'll get back the original principal price or the adjusted principal value, whichever is greater. And interest is paid every six months on the adjusted principal amount. So the payout increases if the CPI increases. The yield on TIPS have come down a good bit so far this year as investors have kind of fled to the treasury market. And right now the yield on the five year tips is around 1.5% and the yield on the 10 year tips is a bit below 2%. Now, those yields sound very low, but the way to think of them is that that's how much you can expect to earn on top of inflation. So the higher the inflation in the future, the more TIPS will return. So the bottom line is that tips, I think can be a good hedge against inflation. I own some myself, but they're really quirky investments, so you got to make sure you take the time to learn more about them. One resource is treasurydirect.gov and another is tipswatch.com, which is run by journalist David Enna who's been investing in tips for more than 25 years. And he does a really good job of explaining how the TIPS market works.

Robert Brockamp (25:55)

Our next question comes from Katherine. Can money in a health savings account or HSA be used to pay for Medicare?

Lauren Thomas (26:04)

So the HSA is a great account because it has triple the tax benefits. Contributions are pre tax, the growth is in, the account is tax deferred and the withdrawals are tax free if used for qualified medical expenses. What if you use the money for other purposes? Well, you're going to pay taxes and a 20% penalty, so it's pretty steep. Now the good news is that yes, you can use your HSA to pay for most Medicare expenses, including your Medicare Part B, Part D and Medicare Advantage plan. Premiums, deductibles, co pays, coinsurance, all that good stuff. The only thing you can't use it for is to pay premiums for Medigap policies. Also, Once you turn 65, you can use your HSA for any expense. If it's not a qualified medical expense, you'll still pay taxes, but not the 20% penalty. And finally, just know that once you're covered by Medicare, you can no longer contribute to an hsa.

Robert Brockamp (26:54)

Our next question comes from Patty. How can I determine if it is worth it to do a Roth conversion if it puts me over the Medicare IRMAA limits?

Lauren Thomas (27:03)

Well, let's start with the decision to convert traditional assets to Roth assets. And it makes the most sense if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket in the future because when you convert from traditional assets, the amount you convert gets added to your taxable income. So if you convert $25,000 this year, you're going to add $25,000 to your ordinary income. You're going to pay taxes on that. But you should also think about how it'll affect other aspects of your finances, because there are many aspects of your finances that are determined by your modified adjusted gross income. So such as credits for going to college, maybe the premiums you pay for if you're on the Affordable Care act, maybe you're paying back school loans based on your income. And if you do a conversion, that'll change all that. But another way is the income related monthly adjustment amount to Medicare premiums, also known as irmaa. So essentially, if you earn above a certain amount, you'll pay more in monthly Medicare premiums and it's based on your tax return from two years ago. So if you're going to take Medicare at age 65, you need to start thinking about IRMAA when you're around 62 63. The truth is, the majority of people don't have to worry about this because the limits for these IRMAAs adjust every year. And for 2025, if you're single, you don't have to worry about it if you earn less than $106,000. If you're married, you don't have to worry if you earn less than $212,000. So only about 10% of Medicare beneficiaries actually pay the IRMAA. But if you do a conversion, it could put you over those amounts. There are actually five brackets. The next bracket up would add $74 a month to your Medicare premium, twice that if you're married all the way up to the highest IRMAA bracket, it adds another $443 to your monthly premium. So it depends on which bracket you're in, and it's really just a question of the costs and benefits of doing a conversion to each person's particular situation. If converting would result in higher taxes and higher Medicare premiums, then it might not be worthwhile, right? You'd have to expect to be in a much higher tax bracket in the future for it to pay off. Or you're converting for other reasons, such as you want to avoid required minimum distributions since Roths aren't subject to RMDs, or you have the goal of leaving tax free assets to your kids.

Ricky Mulvey (29:26)

On Wednesday and Thursday's show, we're going to have some analysts answering some of the more stock specific questions that you sent us. If you have any question for the show, email us podcastsool.com that's podcasts with an S@full.com as always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about. The Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editor standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley fool only picks products that it would personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.