Motley Fool Money: Apple’s New iPhones and Oracle’s AI Bounce

Date: September 10, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam
Analysts: Lou Whiteman and Rachel Warren

Episode Overview

This episode covers two major stories: Apple's much-anticipated iPhone 17 launch and the remarkable surge in Oracle's share price following its latest earnings and bold AI forecasts. The Motley Fool team discusses the impact of these events on investors, evaluates the broader economic landscape with the latest jobs and inflation data, and debates whether Oracle’s AI momentum is sustainable.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple Event Recap & Investor Takeaways (00:05 – 08:01)

• Product Announcements (00:05):

  • iPhone 17 Series: Four new models, including the Air (notably thinner, lighter, and made with a titanium body).
  • Apple Watch: Three new models featuring an ML-powered tool to detect potential high blood pressure.
  • AirPods: New translation capabilities for travelers.

• Reception & Impact:

  • The team paints the launch as underwhelming compared to earlier iPhone releases.
  • Maturity of Apple’s Business: Apple's innovation days are fading, with hardware upgrades feeling incremental rather than revolutionary.
  • Quote [Lou, 01:00]:
    “The definition of needle mover, the stock is down today. … It’s a mature business. The design and engineering is impressive, but…the design days are over. Until they get some next big thing, it’s all about software. And again, we knew this going in, but it’s all about AI as the next big thing to drive a refresh cycle.”

• AI Integration Lags:

  • The new A19 Pro chip brings some AI improvements, including local large language models, but Apple still seems far behind leaders like Google/Alphabet in AI-driven features.
  • Quote [Rachel, 04:40]: “…this is still a company that’s falling very far behind in the AI race... those integrations into their phones are far behind what we’re seeing from, for example, Alphabet with their Google Pixel products. And I think that’s something that some investors are worried about right now.”

• Economic Factors Affecting Upgrades:

  • Consumers are hesitant to upgrade in a “tight economic environment,” further reducing the likelihood of a significant upgrade cycle this year.
  • Wearables, Macs, iPads—all in revenue decline since their respective peaks.
  • Quote [Travis, 05:03]: “...sort of seems like Apple's core business is kind of stagnant at this point. And the upside for investors is services. And services to me is just kind of how much can you squeeze out of consumers who are using your devices?”

• AirPods as a Microcosm (06:11):

  • AirPods, while popular, illustrate Apple’s shrinking “walled garden.” Bluetooth compatibility means users have more choice, weakening Apple's grip.
  • Quote [Lou, 06:11]: “The cult of Apple is that knowledgeable, sophisticated consumers want to buy Apple because it’s so much better, and the AirPod story … tells a story of if you give consumers a choice maybe Apple engineering isn’t just end of story better than anything else.”

2. Macroeconomic Data & Fed Outlook (09:03 – 14:35)

• Bureau of Labor Statistics Revision (09:03):

  • A backward revision revealed 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported, indicating a weaker jobs market than believed.

• Meaning for the Economy and the Fed:

  • Travis notes, “It doesn’t mean the economy was any different…[but] the measurement is hopefully more accurate than we had previously.”
  • Lou frames this as confirmation of a gradual but persistent economic slowdown, potentially simplifying the Fed’s case for rate cuts.
  • Quote [Lou, 09:43]: “It makes it seem like that we have a longer trend towards a cooling economy...for investors, we could...be less worried about the S word—stagflation.”

• Stagflation Explained (10:36):

  • Lou offers a classic definition:
    “Stagflation is an environment where inflation's going up, but the economy is not going up. The economy is under pressure, so there’s no really good tool.”

• Labor Market Details (11:39):

  • Rachel highlights that employment softness was recent and broad-based, especially in leisure, hospitality, and retail, with payroll growth below break-even.
  • Policy actions like tariffs are seen as additional uncertainties, but the service sector—which comprises 80% of GDP—actually saw deflation.

• Investor Takeaways (13:13):

  • Travis and Lou both point to the need for a “big picture” perspective, focusing on long-term trends.
  • Market may face either a “run of the mill slowdown” or the risk of more complex shocks from policy/tariffs.
  • Quote [Lou, 13:43]: “The glass half full...is that maybe we are just in a run of the mill slowdown. ...the more worrying spin is...say we were already in a downward cycle push and then we do get exotic events...we might be caught really off guard with stuff that we don't know how to handle.”

3. Oracle’s Explosive AI Momentum (15:31 – 20:57)

• Earnings & Stock Reaction (15:31):

  • Oracle's stock soared 40% despite a “miss” on both revenue and profit. The trigger: a surge in "remaining performance obligations" (RPO)—future contracted business—now totaling $455 billion.

• Bold Forecasts & Partnerships:

  • Oracle projects cloud computing revenue to rise from $18 billion this year to $144 billion in four years.
  • Massive partnership growth with AI companies and cloud providers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) and a new “Oracle AI Database” platform to attract large-scale AI applications.

• Quote [Rachel, 16:34]:

  • “Their multi cloud database revenue … up 1500% year over year. That’s largely attributable to partnerships with Amazon, Alphabets, Google and Microsoft. … Their OCI provides...the high performance computing and critical GPUs… for demanding AI workloads.”

• Sustainability & Skepticism:

  • Both Rachel and Lou caution that RPOs are not equivalent to booked revenue, and future realization isn't guaranteed.
  • Quote [Lou, 18:53]: “Remaining performance obligations are not the same as revenue. There is no guarantee that a dollar in future performance will actually become a dollar of revenue. ...All of this can just evaporate overnight if the market changes. Or it could even be bigger than we imagine if things stay the same. ...It’s too hard for me.”

• AI Hype Cycle:

  • The team debates whether we’re witnessing the beginning (like 1997 internet) or approaching a peak (like 1999).
  • Quote [Travis, 20:06]: “My question is, are we in 1997 from the Internet's perspective or is it 1999? And I don’t have a great answer for that yet, but something we will definitely be talking about on this show in the future.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Apple’s Waning Innovation:

  • Lou [01:48]:
    “We’ve moved past the days where people are going to see just shiny new bells and whistles and say, yeah, I need to spend another $800 or a lot more every year...The design days are over.”

• On the AirPods as a symbol:

  • Lou [06:11]:
    “The AirPods are an area where if you have a Bluetooth device, you can just...you do not have to stay within the walled garden.”

• On Oracle’s AI Boom:

  • Rachel [16:34]:
    “They have become a major destination for AI companies that are building large scale data centers to train and run their AI models.”

• On AI’s Uncertain Investment Value:

  • Lou [18:53]:
    “Remaining performance obligations are not the same as revenue. There is no guarantee that a dollar in future performance will actually become a dollar of revenue.”

• On Macroeconomic Jitters:

  • Lou [13:43]:
    “Maybe we are just in a run of the mill slowdown…that’s not bad. The more worrying spin is…we might be caught really off guard with stuff that we don’t know how to handle.”

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------|---------------| | Apple Event & iPhone 17 Discussion | 00:05–08:01 | | Macroeconomic Data & Fed Analysis | 09:03–14:35 | | Oracle’s AI Earnings & Stock Reaction | 15:31–20:57 |

Tone & Style

• Conversational, thoughtful, occasionally humorous.
• Analytical but accessible: the team balances hard data with relatable analogies (“It’s almost getting like Super Bowls. Are we still going to do this?”).
• Cautious optimism around tech innovation tempered by realism about market cycles and hype risks.

Summary for Investors

• Apple’s Launches: Iterative rather than transformative; AI integration still lags; services are the growth hope, but hardware revenue is stagnant.
• Macro Environment: Recent job revisions suggest a weaker, possibly cooling labor market, with implications for rate cuts but inflation is not spiking; market remains watchful for shocks.
• Oracle’s AI Surge: Huge forward commitments fueled by AI demand, but future revenue is far from guaranteed—great potential, but investor caution warranted.

For more segments and full explanation, refer to the above timestamps.