Motley Fool Money: Autonomous Vehicles Hit an Inflection Point & GPT-5 Is Here
Release Date: August 8, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam with Guests: Lou Whiteman and John Quass

Introduction

In this episode of Motley Fool Money, host Travis Hoyam engages with investment analysts Lou Whiteman and John Quass to delve into two major topics: the burgeoning field of autonomous vehicles and the arrival of GPT-5. They also discuss recent earnings from companies like The Trade Desk and Crocs, providing actionable insights for investors.

Autonomous Vehicles: Reaching an Inflection Point

Key Discussion Points:

• Industry Momentum: The hosts highlight that autonomous driving has become a central theme across major mobility companies, including Tesla, Uber, Lyft, Mobileye, and Zoox.
• Growth Indicators: John Quass points to Waymo's rapid increase in driverless rides as evidence of this inflection point. “Waymo completed 5 million rides in four years, then another 5 million in just five months, which seems like an inflection point” (01:21).
• Business Models: The discussion emphasizes the diverse business models being tested, with companies like Lyft focusing on Fleet Management to support autonomous ride-hailing services.
• Competitive Landscape: Lou Whiteman notes that traditional automakers like GM and Ford are not entirely sidelined but are cautiously observing the market. “These companies know better than we do the cost and what goes into autonomous technology” (03:42).

Notable Quotes:

• John Quass: “There is indeed concrete data that supports the statement that we are at an inflection point” (01:27).
• Lou Whiteman: “I was downtown not too long ago, early in the morning, and it was just me and a bunch of Waymos driving. It really freaky.” (06:24).

Insights:

• The rapid scaling of autonomous rides indicates growing consumer acceptance and technological maturity.
• Traditional automakers are leveraging their manufacturing expertise and existing infrastructure to integrate autonomous technologies.
• The potential commoditization of autonomous tech could lead to broader adoption and new revenue streams for companies like Alphabet and Uber.

GPT-5: The Next Generation of AI

Key Discussion Points:

• Release and Capabilities: The episode marks the release of GPT-5, touted by Sam Altman as a significant advancement akin to the leap from pre-retina to post-retina iPhones.
• Performance Evaluation: While GPT-5 shows promising benchmarks, both hosts mention encountering minor flaws during early use.
• Market Impact: Lou Whiteman expresses skepticism about whether GPT-5 will overshadow competitors like Google’s Gemini or integrate effectively into Microsoft’s productivity tools.

Notable Quotes:

• Travis Hoyam: “Sam Altman compared this to the difference between the iPhone pre-retina display and post retina display, which kind of made me chuckle because I couldn’t tell you which version of the iPhone that was.” (11:22).
• John Quass: “AI can only do as well as the input that it's been trained with. If you get a wrong input, you're going to have a wrong output.” (11:52).

Insights:

• GPT-5 represents a substantial step forward in AI capabilities but is not without its limitations.
• The competitive landscape in AI remains fierce, with major players like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft continuously innovating.
• Investors are cautious about OpenAI’s valuation and long-term profitability despite technological advancements.

Earnings Highlights: The Trade Desk and Crocs

Crocs' Earnings Drop

Key Discussion Points:

• Stock Performance: Crocs saw a significant stock drop of 29% following earnings reports.
• Underlying Issues: The primary cause is a goodwill impairment charge related to the acquisition of Hey Dude, which did not meet profit expectations.

Notable Quotes:

• John Quass: “The big story here is that Crocs acquired Hey Dude back in early 2022 and it still really isn't living up to expectations.” (18:06).

Insights:

• The impairment charge signals overvaluation of acquisitions, impacting investor confidence despite non-cash nature.
• Management’s prior disclosure of worst-case scenarios for tariffs provided some consolation, indicating proactive risk management.

The Trade Desk's Revenue Growth Deceleration

Key Discussion Points:

• Earnings Performance: The Trade Desk reported a 19% increase in revenue year-over-year but guided for a modest 14% growth in the upcoming quarter.
• Market Reaction: Shares plunged by 38%, reflecting investor concerns over declining growth rates amidst increasing competition.

Notable Quotes:

• John Quass: “Investors are starting to question whether The Trade Desk can compete in the age of artificial intelligence.” (22:09).
• Lou Whiteman: “The competition looks fierce… Given the factors, is 19% growth worth 50 times forward earnings?” (23:22).

Insights:

• Rapid revenue growth is vital for maintaining high valuations in the ad tech space.
• The transition to AI-driven platforms poses both opportunities and challenges, with increased competition potentially eroding market share.

Buy, Sell, or Hold: Analyst Recommendations

Crocs

• John Quass: Buy for long-term investors due to strong profit margins and undervaluation despite stagnating sales. (25:03)
• Lou Whiteman: Sell or avoid due to challenges in consumer retail and unpredictable trends. (25:42)

Shift 4

• Lou Whiteman: Sell citing high competition and operational uncertainties. (26:18)
• John Quass: Buy intrigued by strategic acquisitions and robust customer base despite recent setbacks. (26:50)

Hims and Hers

• Lou Whiteman: Sell or wait longer due to valuation concerns and potential legal battles. (28:11)
• John Quass: Hold due to disruptive potential in healthcare despite current financial strains. (28:56)
• Travis Hoyam: Hold recognizing long-term healthcare disruption potential. (28:56)

Palantir

• Lou Whiteman: Sell reluctantly due to extremely high valuations and slow-growing government revenue. (30:23)
• John Quass: Sell because of unsustainable valuation relative to growth prospects. (30:57)

Axon Enterprise

• John Quass: Buy noting strong backlog growth and expanding addressable markets despite high valuation risks. (32:00)
• Lou Whiteman: Buy emphasizing customer expansion and product diversification. (32:41)

Figma

• Lou Whiteman: Hold intrigued by potential but hesitant due to AI disruption risks. (33:57)
• John Quass: Sell citing uncertainties around AI's impact on design platforms. (34:36)

Reddit

• John Quass: Buy driven by strong user base and under-monetization. (35:34)
• Lou Whiteman: Sell skeptical about solving monetization challenges. (36:23)

Stocks on Radar: Future Investment Opportunities

Universal Display (OLED)

John Quass's Insights:

• Business Model: Licensing OLED technology with a strong patent portfolio providing a competitive moat.
• Growth Potential: Development of next-generation OLED products anticipated to drive future upgrades in the device space.
• Financial Health: Robust balance sheet with over $500 million in cash, no debt, and a modest dividend.

Notable Quotes:

• John Quass: “It holds a ton of patents in the OLED display space, giving it a competitive moat.” (38:23)

Travis’s Query:

• “What does OLED stand for?”
  John Quass: “Organic Light Emitting Diode.” (39:24)

Montrose Environmental

Lou Whiteman's Insights:

• Business Strategy: Rolling up small local environmental cleanup and monitoring companies to create a national presence.
• Recent Performance: Stock down 20% due to operational issues and a non-stringent political climate on environmental regulations.
• Future Prospects: Possession of patents for microplastics removal and potential benefits from federal environmental regulations standardizing processes.

Notable Quotes:

• Lou Whiteman: “They have a ton of patents here, including patents to take microplastics out of water.” (39:52)

Travis’s Query:

• “Do you really think in the next five years this is going to return on anyone's investment?”
  Lou Whiteman: “Federal government activity could remove uncertainty, speeding the process in their favor.” (40:45)

Conclusion

Travis Hoyam, alongside Lou Whiteman and John Quass, provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future prospects of autonomous vehicles and advanced AI technology like GPT-5. They navigate through recent earnings reports and offer nuanced buy, sell, or hold recommendations across various stocks, reinforcing the importance of due diligence and patience in investment strategies. The episode underscores the dynamic nature of technology and its profound impact on investment landscapes, urging listeners to stay informed and adaptable.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this summary are those of the podcast participants and do not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.