Motley Fool Money: Black Friday’s Best Stock Gifts and Investing Lessons

Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam
Guests: Dan Kaplinger, Asit Sharma

Episode Overview

This post-Thanksgiving episode dives into the evolving landscape of Black Friday and the state of retail in 2025, offering a long-term, investor-focused perspective on shifting consumer trends, inflation, the impact of AI on GDP, and the lessons investors can glean from retail stock performance. The heart of the conversation: what stocks make the best gifts for every age, and the team’s reflections on gratitude and investing lessons during the holiday season.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Changing Face of Black Friday (00:40–06:00)

• Early & Prolonged Sales:
  Black Friday has morphed from a day to a multi-week sales event, starting with Halloween and blurring into the holiday season.

  • Asit Sharma: “Retailers took such great advantage of our excitement as consumers… Now it’s a never-ending slog to find deals and keep trying to stay awake late at night for some of us. Clicking away.” (01:17)

• Online Pressure & Price Transparency:
  The playing field has leveled; shoppers use tools (even ChatGPT) to hunt deals, eroding retailers’ ability to surprise and delight with one-off in-store exclusives.

  • Dan Kaplinger: “There’s FOMO of not finding the best deal… It’s almost this adversarial relationship.” (03:12)

• Retailers Adapt or Struggle:
  Leaders like Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy, with investments in logistics and shipping, are dictating industry standards, affecting smaller players.

2. State of Retail & Economic Impacts (05:06–09:44)

• Retail Sales Growth Deconstructed:
  September data shows a 4.2% year-over-year increase—but inflation-adjusted, it’s closer to a 1.2% real gain, with most extra spending in essentials, not discretionary areas.

  • Dan Kaplinger: “A lot of that extra spending is really more towards the essentials… When you look at discretionary spending, not quite as healthy.” (05:25)

• Inflation’s Bite:
  Inflation at 3% remains above Fed’s target; wage growth has cooled, so purchasing power is tight.

  • Asit Sharma: “Wage inflation cool[ing]… That’s really come to parity. So not great for the consumer… We see that buy now, pay later is being used increasingly for the discretionary side and the staple side.” (06:23)

• Warnings of Fragility:
  Retailers are absorbing some import cost increases for now, but these will likely be passed to consumers soon.

• AI’s Outsized GDP Impact:
  Around half of recent GDP growth is from AI infrastructure (data centers, GPUs), raising both hope and concern:

  • The economy benefits from construction and adjacent businesses.
  • Potential risks: If AI investment slows, GDP drops; if it continues, workers may be replaced without clear sources of new jobs.
  • Asit Sharma: “If my job gets taken away from by AI… Maybe the three of us, our avatars, will be conducting this show in a few years. What will we be doing?” (09:15)

• Investor Mindset Shift:

  • Dan Kaplinger: “If high tech has the potential to replace me… income’s going to come from my holdings of the high tech stocks.” (09:52)

3. Long-Term Retail Winners – Lessons for Investors (10:30–14:10)

• Stock Performance: Winners & Laggards

  • Target: +200% over 20 years (excluding dividends)
  • Walmart: +900%
  • Amazon: +14,000%
  • Shopify (since IPO): +6,000%
  • Travis Hoyam: “Things we’ve been talking about—Black Friday going away—it’s because of these companies that are driving these gains for investors.” (10:30)

• Competitive Advantage:
  Companies that invested early in logistics, distribution, and now AI are reaping the biggest rewards and shaping the industry.

  • Asit Sharma: “If you're a retailer, you’ll need to understand how you reach consumers at the point of consumption, which in the future... is going to be that input box for whatever LLM you're using.” (12:14)

• Risks for Small Retailers:
  Reliance on major platforms (Amazon, Shopify, eBay) can be profitable, but rising take rates may threaten viability in the long run.

4. Investor Gratitude & Reflections (15:10–19:38)

• Thankful for Opportunity and Community:

  • Asit Sharma: “There are a lot of things that I’m grateful for… opportunities to carve out your destiny… small moments of introspection.” (15:21)
  • Dan Kaplinger: “It’s just amazing how people come through [during tough times]… The most precious asset… are these connections that you have.” (16:31)

• Appreciating Entrepreneurs:

  • Travis Hoyam: “As investors, we get to ride along… we get to be the mouthpieces… But these founders are dedicating their lives… sacrifices that a lot of us would not make.” (17:50)

5. Best Stock Gifts by Age Group (21:22–34:27)

For a Newborn

• Asit: Amazon (AMZN)

  • Merges retail, tech, and has a variety of high-profit businesses (logistics, advertising, AWS).
    • “This is a business that will overtake Walmart, I believe, next year as the world's largest company by revenue.” (22:06)

• Dan: Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • Still a dominant tech giant, strong ad revenues, YouTube, self-driving (Waymo), quantum computing R&D.
    • “Alphabet was that value stock… maybe not so much anymore.” (23:35)

• Travis: Higher Risk Medtech Company

  • Implies longtime compounding potential; echoes family usage and strong growth.

For an 8-Year-Old

• Dan: Roblox (RBLX)

  • Enduring engagement, ecosystem expands as users age.
    • “Attract those kids to start early. But then… can you retain as they get older? At least… in my family… the answer is yes.” (26:38)

• Asit: Garmin (GRMN)

  • Diversified across wearables, navigation, marine, auto; strong brand and margins.
    • “Wearables… are really setting the standard out there in the marketplace… Health, technology, engagement for youth.” (27:41)

For a 22–25-Year-Old

• Dan: Ferrari (RACE)

  • Enduring luxury brand, leverages F1 and aspirational value.
    • “Ferrari’s done a great job year in year out maintaining its luxury brand.” (31:04)

• Asit: Astera Labs (ALAB)

  • Riskier, small-cap semiconductor for data centers, interconnectivity innovation.
    • “If you have the time horizon… a good business for a youngster to look into.” (32:01)

For Those Nearing Retirement

• Asit: GE Aerospace

  • Growth and dividends; strong demand for plane engines in commercial and military sectors.
    • “We can’t build plane engines fast enough to satisfy military and commercial demand.” (33:56)

• Dan: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

  • Large, diversified “money where my mouth is” holding.
    • “Buffett’s retirement, not a problem, in my view.” (34:17)

6. Investing & Thanksgiving: Lessons from Everyday Life (35:29–38:30)

• Experiences Over Goods:
  Modern families value time and shared experiences over material things.

  • Dan Kaplinger: “Smart businesses realize… if they can offer experiences, that is a moneymaker.” (36:13)

• Survivorship Bias & Lessons in History:
  The Kodak story—once a giant, now a shadow—reminds us not to assume today’s winner is tomorrow’s leader.

• Travel & Global Brands:
  Noticing which brands thrive globally (e.g., McDonald’s with inventive regional menus) can guide investment research.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Modern Retail:
  “It used to be you had the incentive, you’d get up at 4am, you’d go to the store, you’d get the deal. Now there’s FOMO… If you don’t get the absolute best deal and find out about it later, you’re angry at that retailer.”
  — Dan Kaplinger (03:15)

• On Retail Adaptation:
  “Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy… their ability now to make money across a spate of days puts pressure on the rest of the industry to respond.”
  — Asit Sharma (01:22)

• On Investing as a Hedge Against Disruption:
  “If high tech has a potential to replace me… it’s going to come from my holdings of the high tech stocks that are profiting from all this stuff. In many ways, it’s a career hedge.”
  — Dan Kaplinger (09:52)

• On Entrepreneurial Risk:
  “We get to benefit from a lot of work that other people are putting in.”
  — Travis Hoyam (18:53)

• On Stock Picking for Kids:
  “When I search for something on Google, it’s like I’m paying myself.”
  — 8-year-old child of Travis Hoyam (25:37, as retold by Travis)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Start Time | |----------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Black Friday shopping & state of retail | 00:40 | | Data on retail sales & impact of inflation | 05:06 | | Role of AI in GDP growth | 07:58 | | Lessons from long-term retail stock performance | 10:30 | | Reflections on gratitude (Thanksgiving) | 15:10 | | Best stock gifts by age | 21:22 | | Everyday investing lessons during holidays | 35:29 | | Stocks on the radar | 38:40 |

Stocks on the Radar (38:40–41:12)

• Kratos Defense and Security Solutions (KTOS)
  • Makes radar equipment, defense tech
  • Dan Kaplinger: “Might not be the first thing you think of with stocking stuffers for the kids, but… greater spending on defense has plenty of shoppers in the government.”
• Alibaba (BABA)
  • Tech and e-commerce giant in Asia, rapid AI/cloud growth
  • Asit Sharma: “It reminds me of Amazon Web Services. One of the biggest online retailers in the world, but has a great little cloud business…”

Conclusion

This episode blends timely retail analysis with big-picture investing wisdom — a dynamic, relatable discussion for any investor navigating seasonal trends, economic uncertainty, and the evolving landscape of tech-powered commerce. The panel’s approach to stock gifting by life stage offers actionable ideas, and their gratitude reflections serve as a reminder that investing is about more than just money — it’s about participating in the journey of innovation, entrepreneurship, and community.