Motley Fool Money

Episode: Bull vs Bear: Chinese Stock Showdown
Date: November 18, 2025
Host: Emily Flippen (with guest host Jason Hall)
Guests: Toby Bordelon (Bear), Emily Flippen (Bull)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Motley Fool Money team takes a deep dive into Chinese big tech stocks, debating the investment cases for four major companies: PDD Holdings, Baidu, Weibo, and iQiyi. With Emily Flippen as a self-professed China optimist (“bull”) and Toby Bordelon as the resident skeptic (“bear”), the episode explores not just financials and outlooks but also transparency issues unique to Chinese companies. Jason Hall leads the fast-paced bull-bear debate for listeners weighing these stocks in today’s volatile environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo / TEMU) — The E-commerce Showdown

[00:35-04:48]

Bull Case: Emily Flippen

• PDD’s business model is “capital light,” with most revenue driven by ad placements rather than inventory sales.
• “PDD was able to grow profits at nearly twice the rate of revenue…25% net income margins over the past year.” (01:51)
• Strong global expansion via TEMU, with bottom-line growth deemed too cheap to ignore:
  “Enterprise value to EBITDA of less than 10 times while growing … earnings per share double digits…that’s downright cheap.” (03:20)

Bear Case: Toby Bordelon

• 9% revenue growth is lackluster for a high-potential e-commerce platform:
  “I’m not sure I would call 9% growth solid…9% ain’t going to cut it.” (02:29)
• Heavy spending raises sustainability questions: profits to fluctuate due to marketing, subsidies.
• Lack of transparency:
  “What’s the TEMU contribution vs. PDD? Who knows? …Chinese companies…do not have the best reputation keeping numbers on the up and up.” (04:00)
• Risks of a “money pit, not a growth opportunity” if margins compress or growth fails to rebound.

Notable Exchange:

“I never get the full color that I want from Chinese companies…and can feel a little criminal about the fact that they don’t even give reportable segments.”
— Emily Flippen (04:27)

2. Baidu — “The Alphabet of China” in Trouble?

[06:13-11:38]

Bear Case: Toby Bordelon

• Core advertising revenue is declining, cloud/AI growth not large enough to offset losses:
  “Revenue is falling…core ad business is shrinking…cloud/AI revenue…not yet large enough to offset decline.” (06:52)
• Lowered margins, uncertain future as management is noncommittal on AI returns.
• “The upside here is just not justifying the risk.” (08:17)

Bull Case: Emily Flippen

• Acknowledges ad weakness, but highlights emerging strengths: “Subscription based AI solutions grew 128% year over year…expensive for Baidu to build, but it seems like that scale is starting to come.” (09:14)
• Self-driving tech as a potential disruptor:
  “Baidu has self driving robo taxis already in operation in 22 cities across the world. This is 100% fully driverless, actual commercial services being used by the Chinese public on a daily basis.” (10:20)
• Believes there may be overlooked optionality in autonomous vehicles and cloud, if any initiative scales well.

Bearish Rejoinder:

“If you have to be a lot more optimistic than management is being to make a reasonable bull case, I feel like there are probably better opportunities elsewhere.”
— Toby Bordelon (11:21)

3. Weibo & iQiyi — The Trouble With Also-Rans

[13:06-17:33]

iQiyi

Toby (Bear):

• Money-losing, major owner Baidu itself has suffered from keeping it afloat.
• “Iqiyi is losing money on an operating basis. I’ve got no expectations that changes anytime soon, honestly.” (13:47)
• Spends more on interest than it earns—a red flag.

Emily (Bull/Devil’s Advocate):

• The implicit “backstop” from Baidu limits risk of failure.
• “Maybe they just need more time here…risk of bankruptcy is low with such smart backing.” (15:01)
• Unique content and no clear competitor in Chinese streaming market.

Weibo

Toby (Bear):

• Declining ad revenue, shrinking user base; little unique to platform.
• “There’s no compelling reason for consumers to stay … users are heading to other platforms in droves.” (15:41)

Emily (Bull/Devil’s Advocate):

• Still boasts hundreds of millions of users and strong operating margins (>27%); trading at just 5x P/E, possibly undervalued.

• “If they can just figure out how to better monetize users that exist on their platform, this could be an underappreciated opportunity.”
  — Emily Flippen (17:21)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Emily Flippen [PDD optimism]:
  “Everything flows through to the bottom line with this business…so compelled by this opportunity, Jason.” (01:38)
• Toby Bordelon [Transparency concerns]:
  “Refusal to share details … doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in what’s really going on here.” (04:06)
• Emily Flippen [Baidu self-driving spotlight]:
  “This is not in a controlled environment … not heavily scrutinized or regulated. This is just a part of everyday life [in China].” (10:36)
• Toby Bordelon [On optimism vs. realism]:
  “You have to be a lot more optimistic than management is being … there are probably better opportunities elsewhere…” (11:21)
• Jason Hall [Summing up Weibo]:
  “This is a smaller, less profitable business than it was seven years ago. Yet another bad quarter…” (16:10)

Important Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Description | Timestamp | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Kickoff & PDD Debate | Tone setting, deep dive on bull vs bear for PDD | 00:05–04:48 | | Baidu Focus | Search/AI problems, self-driving optionality | 06:13–11:38 | | Weibo & iQiyi Analysis | Challenges, margin/valuation discussion, summary | 13:06–17:33 |

Thematic Summary & Tone

The debate-driven format brings out both optimism and skepticism, blending sharp analysis with playful good-natured jabs between Emily and Toby. There’s a clear sense that while Chinese “big tech” promises scale and profitability, a lack of transparency and slowing growth redefine what “cheap” and “opportunity” mean for U.S.-based investors.

Emily plays the eternal optimist, always looking for hidden value and optionality. Toby is pragmatic and careful, pointing to risks, lack of data, and better prospects elsewhere. The episode’s tone is thoughtful and lively, full of concrete data but also strong opinions—making it valuable for those navigating the murky waters of international investing.

For listeners: This episode is essential if you’re considering international diversification, want to understand the case for and against major Chinese tech stocks, or enjoy a robust, data-driven debate on value vs. risk in today’s market.