Motley Fool Money – "Can AI Drive Peloton’s Comeback?"
Date: November 12, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam
Analysts: Rachel Warren, John Quast
Main Theme:
This episode offers a long-term investor’s perspective on three timely topics: Pfizer’s significant move into the obesity drug space, Peloton's shifting business trajectory and AI integration, and Circle’s standout results and stablecoin-driven disruption in fintech. The team breaks down the business implications and investment case for each, questioning both the hype and the underlying data.
1. Pfizer’s $10B Push Into Obesity Drugs
Timestamps: 00:20–07:29
Key Discussion Points
- Pfizer’s Move: Pfizer won a bidding war against Novo Nordisk to acquire obesity drug startup Medcera, aiming to compete in the rapidly expanding metabolic disease treatment market.
- Rachel Warren [01:01]: "There had been a bidding war... Pfizer ultimately won the bid. They had a sweetened offer of up to $10 billion. This acquisition could really position Pfizer in the long run in the highly competitive and obviously growing obesity treatment market where they've previously struggled."
- Market Structure: The obesity drug market is currently led by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, but the increased competition and innovation—such as monthly injections versus weekly—will shift the landscape.
- GLP-1 Innovations: Medcera’s pipeline includes monthly injectable and oral versions targeting gut hormones. This could be more convenient than current treatments but depends on pricing and insurance reimbursement.
- Travis Hoyam [02:17]: “Is this sort of another expansion of the market or is this going to be a game changer?... Yes, you know, a monthly injection is better than a weekly injection, but if it's $500 and the weekly is $200, that will maybe make the difference."
- Market Dynamics: Concern is rising about side effects of GLP-1s, which could dampen demand even as supply increases.
- John Quast [03:59]: "I don't remember at the beginning of this hearing so much concern about what are the side effects. It seemed like it was all upside for your health. Now I'm starting to hear a lot more murmuring about the side effects for some of these drugs…I would say that you have lower prices eventually. That's just Economics 101."
- Role of Telehealth: Companies like Hims & Hers initially drove demand for GLP-1s but face challenges now that drug shortages have subsided and as pharma companies improve their direct-to-consumer (DTC) capabilities.
- Rachel Warren [05:35]: "I do think the opportunity for a lot of these telehealth companies... is probably in the long run going to be in these branded partnerships with key players... They were manufacturing compounded versions of these GLP-1s... The shortage is over. So now there's sort of this legal gray area."
- Outlook: Margin pressure is likely, but manufacturing costs are low; expansion into new indications (beyond diabetes/obesity) is expected.
2. Can AI Drive Peloton’s Comeback?
Timestamps: 08:49–14:58
Key Discussion Points
- Peloton’s Recovery: Once a pandemic darling, Peloton's viability was questioned amid debt concerns and shrinking revenues. Recent profitability and new strategies offer hope.
- John Quast [09:13]: “If we zoom out and take a big picture view, Peloton's growth has been perfectly acceptable over the long term…five years ago they had 1.3 million connected fitness subscriptions. Now…2.7 million. So it's more than doubled over five years."
- Business Improvements:
- Hardware is no longer subsidized; margins have improved.
- Operating costs—particularly in G&A—have come down.
- Free cash flow positive for over a year, expecting $250M in FCF for the year.
- Debt and inventory concerns remain but are improving.
- Travis Hoyam [10:13]: "Their operating costs were completely out of whack... Now their company is kind of doing more with less."
- John Quast [10:50]: “Debt has been coming down... Inventory’s coming back down... And now you look at the cash flow, it's been free cash flow positive for over a year now... trading at about 12 times this year's free cash flow."
- AI & New Products:
- Introduction of Peloton IQ—the company’s artificial intelligence system powering the new "Cross Training" hardware.
- Peloton IQ provides rep counting and form correction using a movement tracking camera, not in-your-face AI but valuable to users.
- Expansion into holistic wellness areas; acquisition of the Breathwork app.
- Rachel Warren [12:39]: "Last month...they launched this completely new lineup...powered by their Peloton iq, which is this AI system. It offers personalized guidance, rep counting, form correction via a movement tracking camera. That's actually kind of cool and interesting."
- Skepticism & Potential:
- Still an uphill battle for subscriber growth and revenue turnaround.
- The company is bleeding subscribers; future growth is unclear despite operational improvements.
- John Quast [14:04]: “My question is how big can this business be?... I'm not completely convinced about that. Personally, I would like to see some further improvement. The trend is real, but...the revenue growth rate needs to pick up a little bit more before I'll believe in this story."
- Travis Hoyam [14:58]: “They are still bleeding subscribers. I happen to be one of them. My Peloton bike is something that I use as more of a clothes hanger these days than I used to.”
3. Circle, Stablecoins, and the Next Payments Revolution
Timestamps: 16:13–23:09
Key Discussion Points
- Circle’s Results:
- Q3 revenue up 66% YoY (to $740M), with net income up 3x. Driven by increased USDC stablecoin circulation.
- Stablecoins generate revenue from interest on deposited dollars.
- John Quast [16:43]: “You put a physical dollar into the system, they mint a stablecoin that represents that dollar...they can generate income from the dollar that you gave them. So whether that's in treasury bills or something else, they can earn money from the money that you put in."
- Coinbase Partnership:
- Even though Circle administers USDC, Coinbase currently makes more revenue from USDC than Circle due to a revamped revenue-sharing agreement where Coinbase keeps interest generated for assets held on its platform.
- Travis Hoyam [18:15]: “Coinbase is actually making more revenue from the USDC token than Circle is, even though the fact that Circle runs the USCC token."
- ARK Blockchain & Tokenization Race:
- Circle launched ARK, a new layer 1 blockchain with major financial partners in testnet.
- The ARK network aims to eliminate complexities from traditional crypto payments and fit institutional needs, focusing on compliance and real-world asset tokenization.
- Rachel Warren [19:40]: “Major financial players...are onboarding into this space...That engagement suggests that there's a strong interest in using the platform for institutional rails, capital market settlement, real-world asset tokenization that could route significant value away from traditional systems."
- Wider Industry Impact:
- The move toward tokenizing all financial assets is accelerating, with not just Circle but also Coinbase (Base blockchain), Robinhood, etc., joining the race.
- Larry Fink (BlackRock) envisions full-scale financial asset tokenization.
- John Quast [22:26]: “Everyone's in this race forward, and Circle's one of the runners in the race...But you have Coinbase as well with what it's doing with Base. You have Robinhood saying, we're going to tokenize everything. We are sprinting towards that destination."
- Investor Guidance:
- Disruption of traditional payment rails (Visa, Mastercard, et al.) is possible, but victory is not guaranteed for any one player. A basket approach may be prudent as the industry evolves.
4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 03:59 | John Quast | “It's amazing how much human beings are prone to herd mentality with things... I do wonder if that [side effects] leads to cooling demand right when you have ramping supply.” | | 06:29 | Rachel Warren | "It's not necessarily the most high-tech space, but it is very much, I think, a dynamic where these companies are recognizing that they need to have these direct to consumer options to get their product to more and more customers." | | 09:13 | John Quast | “If we zoom out and take a big-picture view, Peloton's growth has been perfectly acceptable over the long term... more than doubled over five years.” | | 12:39 | Rachel Warren | “AI-powered software... last month, they launched this completely new lineup...it's powered by their Peloton iq, which is this AI system...That’s actually kind of cool and interesting.” | | 14:58 | Travis Hoyam | "[My] Peloton bike is something that I use as more of a clothes hanger these days than I used to." | | 16:43 | John Quast | “They mint a stablecoin that represents that dollar...in the meantime, they can generate income from the dollar that you gave them...whether that's treasury bills or something else.” | | 22:26 | John Quast | “Everyone's in this race forward... We are sprinting towards that destination." |
5. Segment Timestamps at a Glance
- Pfizer/Obesity Drug Market & Telehealth: 00:20–07:29
- Peloton Comeback, AI, & Business Model: 08:49–14:58
- Circle Earnings, USDC, and Tokenization: 16:13–23:09
Summary Takeaway:
The episode explores three market-shaping stories: Pfizer’s strategic re-entry in obesity drugs; Peloton’s painstaking pivot and AI-enabled reinvention amid slowing subscriber growth; and Circle’s quiet dominance in the stablecoin arena as the tokenized finance race heats up. The analysts stress the importance of evaluating actual business fundamentals and trends over hype, remaining skeptical but optimistic about innovation’s potential for disruption—whether in healthcare, fitness, or fintech.