Motley Fool Money

Episode: Can These Three 2025 Winners Keep Winning?

Date: December 22, 2025
Host: Tim Byers
Guests/Analysts: Alicia Alfieri, Keith Speight

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Tim Byers and investment analysts Alicia Alfieri and Keith Speight discuss three standout stocks from 2025:

• Micron Technology (MU)
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

The team reviews the drivers behind each stock’s big 2025 performance, analyzes fundamental trends, and offers predictions on whether these companies can continue to outperform the market in 2026. True to the Motley Fool’s long-term lens, each analyst weighs the sustainability of each company’s competitive edge and valuation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Micron Technology (MU)

00:21–08:01

Context & Performance:

• 2025 return: Outperformed market by 143% year-to-date
• 2025 projections: Revenue +49% to $37.4B; gross margins >40%
• High bandwidth memory (HBM) is a key driver—critical to AI/data center demand
• CEO Sanjay Mehrotra: all HBM capacity sold out for 2024, 2025, with most of 2026 committed

Analyst Perspectives:

• Alicia Alfieri (03:29):

  • Impressive growth in revenue, margins, and free cash flow despite industry cyclicality
  • “Micron is a key supplier for Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU.”
  • Concern: Valuation at 100x price to free cash flow—sets ‘pretty high expectations’
  • Prediction: “I think this company won't beat the market next year.” (04:37)

• Keith Speight (05:53):

  • HBM “absolutely critical to AI infrastructure”
  • Only three suppliers for high bandwidth memory—Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix—Micron is the only US-based player
  • Despite gains, “Micron is still cheaper than a lot of the other AI infrastructure stocks”
  • Prediction: “I do predict that the stock will beat the market next year” if AI momentum and pricing power persist (07:28)

Notable Quotes:

• Keith: “Nvidia CEO called out Micron… its high performance memory was, I think he said, invaluable to helping Nvidia drive the next generation of the AI breakthroughs.” (06:24)
• Alicia: “If we were looking at a longer time frame, that would be different. …lots of expectations baked in.” (04:05)

2. Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

09:38–17:11

Context & Performance:

• 2025 return: Outperformed market by 176%
• Included in the S&P 500
• Q3 2025 EPS: +259%; Platform assets up 119% YoY to $333B
• Product mix: equities, options, crypto (+339%), prediction markets
• Average assets per customer: doubled to $10,000+
• Rolling out “Robinhood Legend” for high-value traders

Analyst Perspectives:

• Keith Speight (11:29):

  • Describes Robinhood’s 2025 as “Wipram’s Law—nearly everything that could go right went right.” (11:40)
  • Commends strategic moves: Bitstamp acquisition, entry into futures, prediction markets
  • Notes downside of high-flyer years: hard to repeat, valuation risk
  • Prediction: “A coin toss at best … but I'm an optimist ... Robinhood will beat the market.” (13:35)

• Alicia Alfieri (14:55):

  • Sees serious “optionality” in the brand with diversification into prediction markets and crypto
  • Still heavily reliant on retail trades: equities/options = 30%, w/ crypto, total transaction revs = 57%
  • Wall Street may not fully grasp Robinhood’s business model
  • Prediction: “I'm gonna say they're gonna underperform here because if we continue to see market volatility… a good chunk of Robinhood's revenues would be at risk.” (16:33)

Notable Quotes:

• Keith: “I think making investing feel like a game could be a bad thing… but Robinhood has attracted people who might not have been interested otherwise.” (12:30)
• Alicia: “I kind of love misunderstood companies, rather.” (16:53)

3. Newmont Corporation (NEM)

18:34–22:50

Context & Performance:

• 2025 return: Outperformed market by 143%
• Realized gold price: $3,539/oz (+41% YoY)
• World’s largest gold miner; also a player in copper mining (7% revenue)—an “under-the-radar AI play” via data centers

Analyst Perspectives:

• Alicia Alfieri (19:33):

  • “I'm going to lead with my strongest statement here. I think it's a beat for next year, too.”
  • Highlights Newmont’s 4 consecutive quarters of record free cash flow ($1.6B in Q3)
  • Praises debt paydown, buybacks, and cost savings
  • Attractive valuation: 17x price to free cash flow
  • Gold demand rises in uncertain economies; multiple positive trends

• Keith Speight (20:52):

  • Notes Newmont is “in a stronger position than it’s been in the past”—leveraging high gold demand, better balance sheet
  • Points out copper’s benefit due to AI/data center needs
  • Predicts global “macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty” will keep gold prices elevated
  • Prediction: “I think that’s going to translate into Newmont beating the market again in 2026, albeit with lower gains.” (22:32)

Notable Quotes:

• Keith: “Copper is often found along with gold. …Copper is in demand in AI data centers. It’s a good little plus for Newmont.” (21:26)
• Alicia: “The valuation isn’t bad... Any guesses as to what that valuation multiple goes to during a recession? Much higher.” (20:15)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:21 — Opening and framing: reviewing three major 2025 winners
• 01:21 — Deep dive: Micron Technology (MU)
• 03:29 — Alicia’s Micron thesis & 2026 prediction
• 05:53 — Keith’s Micron thesis & 2026 prediction
• 09:38 — Deep dive: Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
• 11:29 — Keith’s Robinhood thesis & 2026 prediction
• 14:55 — Alicia’s Robinhood thesis & 2026 prediction
• 18:34 — Deep dive: Newmont Corporation (NEM)
• 19:33 — Alicia’s Newmont thesis & 2026 prediction
• 20:52 — Keith’s Newmont thesis & 2026 prediction
• 22:50 — Closing thoughts, next episode preview

Episode Takeaways

• Micron Technology: Strong AI/data center tailwinds, but split analyst opinion due to valuation risk; Alicia is cautious, Keith is optimistic—but neither expects 2025-level gains to repeat.
• Robinhood Markets: Phenomenal 2025 run, diversification efforts laudable, but future performance highly contingent on macro/market conditions; Keith leans optimistic, Alicia more cautious due to volatility risk.
• Newmont Corporation: Both analysts bullish—robust free cash flow, improved balance sheet, structural gold and copper demand, and a reasonable valuation suggest ongoing strength amid macro uncertainty.

Memorable Moments

• “Wipram’s Law—It’s Murphy spelled backwards.” (Keith, 11:40) Cleverly summarizes Robinhood’s year.
• “If we continue to see market volatility if we have a downturn again, they have a lot of their, their revenues that are at risk.” (Alicia, 16:38) On Robinhood’s future risk.
• “I think it's a beat for next year, too.” (Alicia, 19:35) Bold conviction on Newmont.

Ideal for investors weighing 2025’s big winners in their 2026 strategy, this episode delivers coherent, expert perspectives, along with clear, differentiated predictions on each stock’s prospects—and the macro and valuation caveats every long-term investor needs to consider.