Motley Fool Money — Disruption Stories: The 2 Stocks Our Analysts Think Could Be Most At Risk

Date: February 23, 2026
Host: Tim Byers
Guests: Asit Sharma (B), David Meyer (C)

Overview

This episode of Motley Fool Money delves into the topic of corporate disruption, specifically within the software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector. Host Tim Byers and analysts Asit Sharma and David Meyer discuss recent market turbulence, signs of disruption from both historical and contemporary perspectives, and identify which major SaaS stocks may be most at risk. The conversation also explores the mindset needed for investor bravery during volatile times, sharing practical advice for navigating fear and uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Disruption in SaaS: Lessons from the Past

[00:30–04:50]

• The episode opens with a look at the recent SaaS sector selloff, contrasting positive indices performance with anxiety over potential disruption.

• Historical Case Studies:

  • Siebel Systems:
    • Once dominant in CRM software, Siebel was upended by Salesforce.
    • "Salesforce had come out...with a slogan...a campaign button...with 'software' and a slash through it. The whole idea was, no software. You don't need software anymore. You can do everything online." (Tim Byers, 02:03)
    • Disruption symptoms: declining gross and net margins; negative growth in four of its last eight quarters.
  • Apple (mid-1990s):
    • Margins eroded due to the Mac cloning strategy, making Apple similar to other PC companies until Jobs’ return.
    • "Margins just got obliterated...until ultimately net margin went negative. The company started losing money..." (Tim Byers, 03:35)

• Takeaways on Disruption:

  • Disruption isn’t linear; signs include:
    • Persistently lower gross margin
    • Increasing cost to acquire revenue/customers
    • Reduced customer stickiness, especially for large clients
  • "Given what we saw last week, there were a lot of companies that the market seems to believe are just heading for a Siebel or Apple style of disruption." (Tim Byers, 04:28)

Which SaaS Stocks Are at Greatest Risk?

[04:50–11:29]

Asit Sharma’s Pick: Salesforce

• Vulnerable Despite Innovation
  • "I am going to go with salesforce.com as a company that is looking seemingly vulnerable to disruption." (Asit Sharma, 05:10)
  • Salesforce has tried to innovate with AI agents, but it's now a legacy business growing only 8–10% per year.
  • Their business is increasingly commoditized:
    • "It's fairly easy for businesses with good engineering teams to do part of what their platform offers... fine tune marketing in house and lead generation." (Asit Sharma, 06:04)
    • Maintaining such systems in-house is burdensome but possible for some.
  • Margins are being squeezed, and organic growth can’t keep up. "It needs another several percentage points to get that distance between its revenue and its cost to preserve those margins." (Asit Sharma, 06:50)

David Meyer’s Pick: The Trade Desk

• Marketplace Model Risk
  • David Meyer sees less disruption risk in enterprise SaaS, more potential threat to platforms like The Trade Desk.
  • "The trade desk is a marketplace that sort of has a SaaS model, a subscription model on top of it...if you had a technology that could bring that marketplace together more efficiently...you could sort of fly under the radar...and you're really pulling customers away from the current leader." (David Meyer, 08:36)
  • Trade Desk is innovating, but new technology could disrupt the buyer-seller marketplace model.
  • Meyer downplays DIY disruptions in enterprise SaaS: "Production based software is very different than a prototype." (David Meyer, 11:19)
  • Monday.com example: Big customers continue to drive growth and value in established SaaS platforms.

Memorable Moment

• "I asked our robot overlords...what they think is the company...most disruptible? And the answers were the Trade Desk and salesforce.com. I don't know what that says, but I think it's interesting." (Tim Byers, 11:29)

Investor Mindset: Bravery Amid Market Fear

[13:15–22:31]

Tim Byers’ Three Elements of Bravery

• Willingness to go against consensus
• Willingness to be told you're wrong by market action
• Willingness to not act when others are, and to act when others aren’t
  • "Outperformance is never the byproduct of agreement." (Tim Byers, 13:34)

Asit Sharma’s Approach

• Doing independent research and forming your own conviction is key.
• “Being able to, you know, sit down...walk through the thesis...and decide for yourself what your perspective is, that is key. Once you do that, then it’s just a little bit of turning up the bravery to go ahead and take the step.” (Asit Sharma, 14:48)
• Markets often “build consensus because they build results year after year.” However, greatest returns are often realized in the short term when most are selling out of fear.
• Contrarian plays are temporary: "We stay contrarians for the amount of time it takes the market to come around to our view..." (Asit Sharma, 16:45)

David Meyer’s Advice

• Everyone struggles with staying courageous—“This is inherent in the way our brains work and the way our emotions work. So you’re not alone." (David Meyer, 18:56)
• Quoting Warren Buffett:
  • “You are not right or wrong because the market agrees with you. You are right or wrong because your data analysis and logic are sound.” (David Meyer, 19:05)
• Personal Anecdote: The AES Story
  • Meyer bought AES as it crashed, trusted his research when consensus screamed bankruptcy, doubled down as the stock dropped further, and eventually saw a 25x return.
  • "I plugged my nose and I invested a heck of a lot more around a dollar. Okay? And once the narrative changed...the stock went back up to $25." (David Meyer, 21:26)
  • The key: conviction based on data, even when markets disagree.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Disruption isn't linear. It doesn't follow the same pattern in every case. But there are some signs." — Tim Byers (04:00)
• “It’s fairly easy for businesses with good engineering teams to do part of what [Salesforce’s] platform offers.” — Asit Sharma (06:04)
• "Production based software is very different than a prototype." — David Meyer (11:19)
• “You are not right or wrong because the market agrees with you. You are right or wrong because your data analysis and logic are sound.” — David Meyer quoting Buffett (19:05)
• “We stay contrarians for the amount of time it takes the market to come around to our view.” — Asit Sharma (16:45)
• "I plugged my nose and I invested a heck of a lot more around a dollar." — David Meyer, on AES (21:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Disruption stories: Siebel and Apple (00:30–04:50)
• Which SaaS stock is at most risk? (04:50–11:29)
• Robot overlords' disruption prediction (11:29)
• Investor bravery: Contrarianism and conviction (13:15–18:55)
• AES anecdote: Staying brave when facing market losses (18:55–22:31)

Tone & Language

The episode maintains an accessible, conversational, and lightly humorous tone ("modi" business; "robot overlords"). The speakers use practical, real-world language when discussing both technical financial analysis and the emotional side of investing.

Conclusion

In this episode, Motley Fool Money blends historical lessons, current SaaS sector analysis, and timeless investing mindset tips. Analysts identify Salesforce and The Trade Desk as the most disruptible major SaaS stocks, explain their reasoning, and underscore the importance of data-driven conviction and patience. Investors are reminded that while market fear is natural, true outperformance—and bravery—come from independent thinking and calculated boldness.

For further analysis and previews of upcoming earnings, tune in to the next episode.