Motley Fool Money – Economic Data Catch-Up

Date: December 23, 2025
Host: Emily Flippen
Guests: Jeff Santoro & Jason Hall

Overview

This episode dives into the recent flood of economic data released after the extended government shutdown, focusing on what these numbers actually tell investors and their many limitations. Emily Flippen, Jeff Santoro, and Jason Hall offer perspective on reading economic trends as we head into 2026, emphasizing the difficulty of relying on incomplete or potentially inaccurate figures. The panel also provides stock picks for uncertain times and closes with bold—and mostly pessimistic—predictions for the coming year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Data Dump—With a Giant Asterisk

[00:04–05:48]

• Context:

  • Because of the government shutdown (Oct 1 – Nov 12), there was a delay in key economic data (CPI, unemployment, retail sales).
  • The recent release of backlogged data comes with caveats due to gaps and potential inaccuracies.

• Key Numbers (as of November 2025):

  • Inflation (CPI): 2.7% YoY, nearing the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Employment: Payrolls up 64,000 in November, 4.6% unemployment rate.

• Fed Moves:

  • Fed lowered rates by 0.25%, showing caution.

Quote – Jeff Santoro [01:44]:

“Cutting rates could help stimulate the job market but cause inflation, whereas leaving rates higher could help stem inflation but not address the job issue…if we zoom out and just look at the economy as a whole, it certainly doesn’t look or feel like we're in any kind of crisis deserving drastic rate cuts. So I understand the caution here.”

• Retail Sales Highlights:
  • Flat month-over-month in Sept/Oct; +3.5% YoY, but not inflation-adjusted.
  • E-commerce is strong; automotive sales lag.

Quote – Jason Hall [03:33]:

“The so-called K-shaped economy continues to play out. A small percentage of high earners are driving much of the resilience in consumer spending, but a large portion…are having to cut back more.”

Memorable Exchange:

• Emily Flippen [05:07] (joking): "So Jason’s telling me my question is stupid and the solution is just to earn more money, like Jeff."
• Jeff Santoro [05:12]: "That’s right. That’s always the solution."
• All laugh—classic Fool banter exposing the challenge of interpreting nuanced data.

2. Can We Even Trust These Numbers?

[06:54–11:35]

• Distrust from the Top:
  • Fed Chair Powell (Dec 10 speech) suggested jobs reports overstated payrolls by about 60,000 jobs/month—implying job losses, not gains.
  • Powell also blames goods inflation on tariffs, calling future predictions tough.
  • Fed Governor Stephen Mirren says inflation is overstated, especially in housing/shelter metrics.
  • Some economists counter that inflation was understated due to shutdown data assumptions.

Emily Flippen [08:02]:

“I don’t know what to make of this. We had the Fed chair saying employment’s weaker than the report suggests, the Fed governor saying inflation’s lower, economists saying inflation is higher. All I know is my pocketbooks are hurting. What do we do with this information?”

• Jason Hall [08:25] (On Data Revisions and Investor Psychology):

  “These surveys and reports are by their very nature…working documents. The initial report always gets revised multiple times…The problem is that we expect precision and we set ourselves up for disappointment…Peter Lynch already told us as investors, we should spend almost no time at all on macro…because we start following whatever our own political biases are and…that leads us down a path that undermines our investing success.”

3. What Investors Should Actually Watch

[10:22–15:09]

• Jeff Santoro's Tips for Assessing the Real Economy:
  • Private data: Use it to verify government statistics.
  • Loan defaults and delinquencies: Monitored via earnings reports from major banks and fintechs—rising rates signal consumer stress.
  • ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ usage: Spiking for everyday purchases signals potential trouble.
  • Retailer performance: Look at low-cost retailer momentum (Walmart, Costco) and discretionary spending.

Quote – Jeff Santoro [10:22]:

“We might see loan defaults or delinquencies tick up…provisions for loan loss reserves…Another thing to watch is trends in buy now, pay later...when people lose their jobs...discretionary spending slows and you…see people trade down…These retail signals are worth keeping an eye on as investors.”

4. Stocks for a Softening Economy

[12:00–15:09]

• Jason Hall:
  • Warns no stock is truly “safe” if the market sells off.
  • Prefers “businesses whose models are resilient or decoupled from the consumer economy.”
  • Pick: CareTrust REIT (CTRE) — seniors’ housing, skilled nursing, dividend growth, “about as uneconomically sensitive a business as it gets.”

Notable Stats [Jason Hall, 12:34]:

“Yield is about 3.6%. Over five years, they raised the payout 34%…18.5% annualized returns even through the pandemic.”

• Jeff Santoro:
  • Likes Walmart (WMT) — cheap necessities, consistent sales in up and down markets.
  • Costco (COST): Strong value proposition even in downturns; sticky membership base.

Jeff Santoro [14:16]:

“If you go back and look at how they’ve done in previous downturns and recessions, they’ve fared pretty well compared to the general market.”

5. Reckless Predictions for 2026

[16:49–20:50]

— Emily Flippen:

“[The Fed] will cut rates too aggressively, in part due to political pressure, which could erode trust in the institution and…reignite inflation…My belief is that the disruption for the job market is probably being caused by AI. If AI is eroding the numbers, rate cuts won’t do anything to fix that. So all that will do is increase inflation without improving employment.” [17:18]

— Jason Hall:

“I always expect a recession in the next year…My prediction: stagflation. Scary late 70s, early 80s stagflation where the jobs market’s terrible, inflation is rampant, the Fed is struggling to do anything. …AI starting to do jobs that used to go to entry level employees…I’m really afraid that that trend is going to accelerate in 2026.” [18:05]

— Jeff Santoro:

“I think 2026 is going to be the year of the AI backlash…The proliferation of AI slop on the Internet…rising electricity costs…midterm elections—politicians are going to seize on [AI pushback]…Big tech may have to pump the brakes at best or slam on them at worst.” [19:06]

6. Tone and Takeaways

• Humorous, self-aware skepticism: The hosts repeatedly poke fun at both their own and each others’ attempts to draw neat conclusions from noisy data.

• Investor mindset: Their North Star is long-term thinking and skepticism about macro-based predictions.

• Key Message:

  “That’s why it’s fun to recklessly predict but not invest based on those reckless predictions, right?” (Jason Hall [19:56])

• Long-term optimism contrasts with short-term caution:

  “If anything, the S&P 500 is up over 15% for the year. You do not want to be uninvested in the stock market in general over the long term…Stocks go up over time regardless of, you know, how pessimistic we might be about the year ahead.” (Emily Flippen [20:19])

Timestamps & Notable Quotes

• 01:44 (Jeff Santoro): On the Fed’s dilemma and caution
• 03:33 (Jason Hall): K-shaped economy and margin of error in reports
• 08:25 (Jason Hall): Macro numbers, revisions, and investor bias
• 10:22 (Jeff Santoro): Private data and investor signals
• 12:34 (Jason Hall): Why CareTrust REIT is resilient
• 14:16 (Jeff Santoro): Why Walmart and Costco are durable picks
• 17:18, 18:05, 19:06: Reckless predictions for 2026

Summary Table – Featured Stock Picks

| Analyst | Stock | Rationale | |-----------------|-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------| | Jason Hall | CareTrust REIT (CTRE) | Defensive, senior care demographics, dividend growth | | Jeff Santoro | Walmart (WMT) | Low-cost provider, performs in all cycles | | Jeff Santoro | Costco (COST) | Value prop and loyalty keep sales steady |

Conclusion

• Macro data is murky and best used as a backdrop, not a guide.
• Look for private indicators and what companies are actually reporting.
• Stick to resilient businesses, especially those not directly tied to consumer spending cycles.
• Predictions are fun, but the only way to win is to stay invested for the long haul—even when the headlines, and your favorite podcast analysts, sound dire.