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- [00:00]
Tim Byers
Foreign Is it time to buy biotech? You're listening. Motley Fool Money. Fools. Welcome to Motley Fool Money for Monday, July 21, 2025. I'm your host Tim Byers with me, Carl Thiel from the Rule breakers team. Welcome to your Rule breakers podc. Carl, how, how you feeling this morning? Ready to talk biotech. Caffeinated, I hope.
- [00:36]
Carl Thiel
Absolutely. Plenty caffeinated.
- [00:39]
Tim Byers
Plenty caffeinated. I can't ever be too caffeinated. We want to bring this up because we have recent data from Larca that the total VC funding in biotech increased year over year for the first time since 2021. This is last year reaching 21.4 billion versus 16.1 billion in 2023. That was a significant increase. Now that surpassed pre pandemic levels. Furthermore, 2024 recorded the strongest quarter since early 2022. This has seemed to continue, Carl, like 2024, we ended really strong. But then just recently the Narcan maker, which is a kind of an anti narcotic. I don't really know how to describe it here, but a company named Anthea raised 56 million in Series C capital. And we also have some data that family offices are committing in bigger amounts to biotech and early stage biotech. So here's my question for you, Carl, before we get into the opportunity in biotech, how are you feeling about this? The private market seems to like biotech more than it has in a while. Is that something we can look forward to as public market biotech investors?
- [01:59]
Carl Thiel
So I guess my overall feeling, and this may come through a few different ways and to a lot of things we talk about today, it's guarded optimism with lots of caveats. Basically I'm glad to see venture capitalized. I have to say to me, when you look at it, it's more like it's stabilizing than that. I really see a lot of things going up. I mean if you look ahead of the 2024 data, the second quarter of this year looks like it's actually going to come in at a five quarter low. It dropped back down again. I'm not terribly worried about that. I mean, but I think what you're seeing is this stabilization and this kind of waiting. But you brought up family office. Family offices. And that's, that's a really interesting. And for people who, who don't know, I mean these, these are sort of, you know, very wealthy. Yeah.
- [03:02]
Tim Byers
High net worth.
- [03:03]
Carl Thiel
Individual private investors. Right. Who are, or, or who get, you know, they, they tend to, I, I would say that in the past family offices have been, they've often been passion projects when they invest in this sector, you know, maybe somebody in the disease and they want to put money into that disease, something like that. These days the investments are getting bigger and they are often different. Family offices are working together or sometimes they're working with a general partner. I feel that they're sort of stepping into the void because they have even longer timelines than a traditional vc. Their timelines are as long as they want them to be. They are kind of stepping into the void to take care of some of the really early seed stuff. And Anthea is a really interesting company. Eric Schmidt from Google is involved in that one. But you know, that's a fascinating company and just the perfect kind of thing for a family office to be involved in.
- [04:07]
Tim Byers
Yeah, I mean, this is super interesting. Let's pivot to the opportunity because again we said that biotech has been really hit or miss. It's a big part of the. The Motley fool rule breakers scorecard has been just short of forever really since the beginning of the service over 20 years ago. So I want to talk about this because it has been hit or miss. We've Twice recommended the XBI, which is a biotech themed ETF. And both positions have lost to the market by 35% and 60% as our recording. Why is now a more interesting time, in addition to all of this activity in the private market and we're starting to see more IPOs, why is now an interesting time for you as a biotech investor? What should get the public market investors more excited about this?
- [05:04]
Carl Thiel
Yeah, well, I think our XBI positions are sort of reflective of what's going on in the broader market, which is that in absolute terms those positions aren't down sharply, I think last night.
- [05:17]
Tim Byers
No, they're just losing to the market.
- [05:19]
Carl Thiel
Right. They're just losing to the market. Right. And that's kind of exactly what you're seeing, which is, you know, as with the VC funding, biotech's kind of moving sideways right now. And for a while the markets were moving, you know, sharply higher. There's been, you know, some more volatility around that. But the question why, why is this a good time to be invest. Investing in biotech? I think, you know, let me first briefly say why everything continues to be so negative. You know, the reasons to be negative before were high interest rates, lack of M and A, you know, this sort of overdraft of companies that came public when they shouldn't have early on that the market was still digesting and just the slop that needed to get out of the system. Some of those are getting a little bit better. We actually have seen some really interesting M and A this year. A lot of multi billion dollar deals and that's, that's super bullish. But at the same time we've, we, you know, some of those are still in place and then we've got a new collection of worries around what's going on at the FDA and how are they going to regulate things and what's going on with pricing and the political environment. All those things are still hanging over the sector. So you know, to be a real bull right now, you do have to be a little bit contrarian and, and you know, kind of look at a wall of worry that you think this market can climb. I mean there's still plenty of reasons to be cautious that you can point out. And, and to the XBI in particular. I, I guess the reason I've been a little less personally sort of focused on the xbi. I mean it is a proxy for the whole sector that people, you know, that's, that's sort of the commonly used tool to say how is biotech doing? Let's look at the xbi. But it index, it's got this kind of, you know, equal weighting formula so that it's getting rebalanced all the time and doesn't favor the large, large cap companies. I, I think it's a better time honestly for taking very careful picks within the sector rather than just broad market exposure. The broad market exposure pays off when things finally turn around. And I do think that happens eventually. But I think, you know, you can maybe do better picking carefully individual companies that, that can not only get a sort of general industry lift but also have, you know, some of their own specific things going on that are underappreciated there.
- [07:50]
Tim Byers
There's two things I've heard you say to me about when you're talking about biotechs that you want to maybe focus in on. That might be an interesting play like ones that we want to add to the rule breaker scorecard. For example, two things that I, I have heard from you. One is if the science is really good and the way, and the, and the capital that the company has is good enough, that is you, that's a company that's giving itself Runway to maybe get to scale and develop a blockbuster drug that may be a worthwhile risk. So that's one I've heard you talk about. The other is when there's enough there, there that the vulture that could come along and acquire this company at a premium might be salivating a little bit more. And those two things sort of create the conditions for really good potential biotech returns. Do you think we're seeing more of those types of situations right now?
- [08:55]
Carl Thiel
I think you're seeing a situation in which, in terms of buying out companies in which big pharma has been a little bit sitting on the sidelines, but they, they can't really afford to keep doing that. And so there's companies like Merck has been sort of very open about, you know, that they are out shopping, the wallet is open, they are looking around, you know, they, they, they can't put off forever, ever filling in pipelines. There is a lot of big, big cliff, patent cliff situations going on at most of the big pharma companies. Companies.
- [09:31]
Tim Byers
And a patent cliff meaning like a drug that is under patent but going to be forced to become generic.
- [09:39]
Carl Thiel
Exactly. So you see companies that have, you know, 20, 30, 40, 60% of their revenue is going to, you know, essentially open up to generic competition and largely disappear over the next few years. Yeah, it's a big deal. So, so that's one thing, but I guess the other thing I'd say into what you just said is, you know, do they have the science and do they have the cash? Yes. I would add to that right now. I think you have to be even more picky which is do they have the science, do they have the cash and are they pretty close to market right now? You know, having having great science through to approval almost. Right. You've got to see a, you've got to see a through line. I, I just think there's enough opportunities like that that you don't need to play the hero with with earlier stage. Got it. Science. I mean there's obviously there's going to be some great payoffs there, but like risk adjusted. I feel like there are a lot of very late stage companies that are, that are near market, on the market or even on the market and already seeing sharp sales ramps that you can kind of more focus there.
- [10:44]
Tim Byers
Fair enough. All right, we're going to talk about two of them up next. Which is the better Biotech, Viking or Eli Lilly? We're gonna battle it out.
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Ryan Reynolds
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- [11:04]
Tim Byers
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- [11:14]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [11:18]
Carl Thiel
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- [11:24]
Tim Byers
See mintmobile.com all right, Carl, let's talk about two companies that you mentioned. Not playing the hero. You know, companies that have drugs that are either on the market or very, very close to on the market. And we've got a mixture of both. You know, on the market, Eli Lilly has done exceptionally well with weight loss drugs. Mounjaro and Zepbound. They are the strong rivals to one that fools you certainly have heard of called Ozempic. But Viking has a late stage drug, actually more than one late stage drug that is interesting in competing in this space. So Carl, break it down for us here. You know, when you look at these two, give me, give me one advantage and one disadvantage of each or if you want to just tell me which of these two do you favor?
- [12:23]
Carl Thiel
Look, if you're oriented towards, you know, safety and stability, Lilly is plainly the better company to go with here. I mean that they're not only winning in the marketplace. I mean, you know, Manjaro and Zeppbound have surpassed Ozempic. They also have a tremendous follow on pipeline. I mean when you look at who are developing the best next generation sort of GLP and related drugs, often they're, they're more than one mechanism. It's GLP plus other mechanisms. Lilly is not necessarily at the top in every category, but they're, they're always near the top. They've really done a great, great job in this area. Not to mention the fact that they are a diverse pharmaceutical company with, with you know, lots of other things going on in other areas. That said, you know, right now the market is essentially a duopoly between Lilly and Novo Nordisk and you know, largely about two products. Even though there's a few brand name floating around, it's really just two compounds, Tirzepatide and Semaglutide. That is not always going to be this way. And the discontinuation rates of these drugs over like a one and two year period is horrific. I mean people just, you know, they're not staying on them which tells you something about the, the sort of long term wear of the side effects of these drugs. So there's a lot of room for improvement and There's a lot of companies vying to do it. I think Viking is a super interesting pick in the space. I will say, you know, when I talk about companies that are sort of like, on the verge of, of going to market, this is not one of them. They've got a lot of work ahead of them. They are, they are late stage. They are late stage. They began their phase three in their, in their injectable formulation of their drug. Their oral drug is a little bit farther behind. You know, we'll see data in the next, in the next couple of years, but, you know, it still remains to me a relatively speculative bet. That said, it's one where, you know, if you're looking for maximum returns, I mean, Viking is tiny, tiny, tiny compared to Lilly could see absolutely massive returns. And this would be one that, to me, you would slot in as a, as a speculative bet in a, in a larger portfolio.
- [14:51]
Tim Byers
I mean, and we sometimes like that in rule breakers. Let me put you on the spot here and say of these two, actually, before I put you on the spot here, do you think that Viking is a pretty good M and A candidate? Does it fit into that theme of biotechs that are really producing good science, have the cash, very attractive, somebody to come in and swoop this one up?
- [15:17]
Carl Thiel
Oh, it absolutely is. I mean, there's been a tremendous amount of M and A in the sector, specifically around the obesity space. I mean, companies have been snapped up. And when you look at large pharma that have great needs in the area, like Pfizer, for instance, needs products, their own obesity programs flamed out. You know, you would, you would think they would certainly be in the market to be buying. And they're not the only ones. That said Viking has not shown much interest in being acquired so far. So I'm sure these, these conversations are taking place. But, you know, and so, so I assume that Viking is driving a very, very hard. They, they do have really good data to date. It's, it's, it's early data. So, you know, I don't want to overestimate it, but it's, it's really good. I think they're very confident in the product and they are a little bit farther ahead than most people. So I, I think they're going to ask for a big price tag.
- [16:15]
Tim Byers
Who are you going with then? So are you going with Viking or are you going with Lily? So outperforming over the next five years, who you got.
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Carl Thiel
So outperforming? Yeah, I will go with Viking just because, I mean, if they hit with this, there's, you know, there's no way Lily is going to be able to. Yeah, to, you know, Lily is not quintuple. Right, right, right, exactly. But it is certainly way, way riskier.
- [16:42]
Tim Byers
Yeah, I'm going with Viking as well. If this is. This is a classic rule breaker. If it hits, it will be a massive multi bagger. So Viking Therapeutics, the ticker is vktx. All right, up next, a little trivia. Get your notepad ready and let us know in the comments. What company is generally considered history's first biotech. We're coming back with that next.
- [17:10]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [17:40]
Tim Byers
All right, Carl, so as always, I like to end these with a little bit of trivia, a little bit of history. Try to help members understand a little bit more about the market we're talking about. In this case, we've been talking about the biotech market. I'm super curious of your answer here and I've got a little bit of detail that we'll talk about after I get your answer. But fools, go ahead and give your answer in the comments. What company is generally considered history's first biotech? Carl, what is your answer on this? I am really interested to hear what you say.
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Carl Thiel
Well, I'm interested to hear what you're going to say. I think there's only two possible answers. I'm pretty clear. I'm pretty clear on which it is.
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Tim Byers
It's okay.
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Carl Thiel
You could argue that it's Genentech, but I think it's pretty clearly Cetis Corp.
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Tim Byers
Okay, very interesting. So we need to hear more about Cetus Corp. Because when I put this to Gemini, Gemini said, and I'm quoting here, while biotechnology broadly defined as roots in ancient practices like brewing and fermentation, the birth of the modern biotech industry focused on genetic engineering is generally associated with the founding of Genentech and founded in 1976 by Herbert Boyer and venture capitalist Robert Swanson. So tell me more about Cetis.
- [18:59]
Carl Thiel
Yeah, so Genentech, the argument for that is that they were specifically founded to take care to take advantage of sort of recombinant DNA Techniques to make proteins that you couldn't manufacture otherwise. Cetis Corp. Was founded five years before that in 1971.
- [19:20]
Tim Byers
Yep.
- [19:21]
Carl Thiel
Yeah. And it was, it was basically a microbiology company that was set up. You know, initially what they were doing was more sort of industrial, making enzymes and stuff. But they became a biotech giant. One of their products is still on the market today, proleukin. And they are the ones who developed pcr. Specifically Carrie Mullis at Cetus Corp. Who I got to interview once Nobel Laureate developed the, the polymerase chain reaction, which is the DNA amplification technique that is still core today for most gene sequencing. And if nothing else, I think that cements them as the first company.
- [20:03]
Tim Byers
I so interestingly enough that Gemini did mention Cetus, but it mentioned Cetus as, as the runner up. I was super cur this because I think I've told you this even though I've learned more about biotech from you than anybody else. My grandfather was a research doctor at Squibb back in the 1950s and 1960s. So I thought, I have thought not that Squib would be the first biotech, but it would be like, well, surely this goes back to the 1930s or 1940s, but nope, it's the 1970s. So this is still a relatively new industry. We're, we're really, you know, if you want to Count Cetus, we're 54 years into the, into the industry. That makes us a fairly young industry.
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Carl Thiel
Absolutely. Yeah. And, and you know, a lot of the, some of the pioneers are still around. There are companies. I mean, I was just looking. Sarepta SRPT is in the news a lot right now. Not for good reasons, but for interesting reasons. But I mean, that's another, that's just an example of a company that's. Its original DNA goes back to 1980. Right. There's a lot. Biogen goes back to 1970. I mean it's, it's a lot of these first generation companies are still what's cooking today and still.
- [21:27]
Tim Byers
And still cooking and still going. All right, Carl, thanks for, thanks for being here. Thanks for talking biotech. Appreciate that. Fools. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check our show notes for our engineer, Dan Boyd. For our producer, Anand Chakavalu. For Carl Thiel, I'm Tim Byers, Bulls. Thank you for tuning in. See you again tomorrow.