Motley Fool Money

Episode: Intel Hits a 52-Week High: Time to Buy?
Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Tim Byers
Guests: Rick Benares, Asad Sharma

Overview

This episode of Motley Fool Money dives into Intel’s recent surge to a 52-week high ($45.67/share) and discusses whether the rally signals a long-term recovery or just short-term enthusiasm. The analysts examine Intel’s turnaround story, its technical advances in semiconductor manufacturing, and potential policy tailwinds after a meeting with President Trump. The second half segues into “Mindset Monday,” reflecting on the value of taking breaks from the market.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Intel’s 52-Week High & Political Backing

• Intel’s surge: The company has reached a new high, sparking questions about whether it will continue climbing or if now is the time to take profits.
  “Is this the beginning of an extended rally that will last years or is this time to cash in on a burst of enthusiasm…?” (00:40, Tim)
• Federal backing: President Trump met with Intel CEO Lee Bhutan, expressing excitement about U.S.-made sub-2-nanometer chips and federal support.
  “He said I just had a great meeting…Intel just launched its first sub 2 nanometer CPU processor designed, built and packaged right here in the USA.” (01:00, Tim)
• Government investment: The U.S. (the taxpayers) invested $8.9 billion in August, now worth more than $20 billion due to Intel’s stock surge.
  “That's basically now worth more than 20 billion. So you, me and Asit, we each owed about $60 if my math is correct, $60 worth of intel.” (02:22, Rick)

2. Cautious Optimism — Fundamentals Lagging Hype

• Risks & reality: Despite investor enthusiasm and government backing, Intel’s fundamentals remain weak, with four straight years of declining revenue, negative earnings, and no positive free cash flow expected until 2027.
  “Sometimes you see a stock start to move up before the fundamentals get there…Intel still not profitable…not generating positive free cash flow, something that analysts don't see changing until 2027.” (02:22, Rick)
• Show-me moment:
  “Now it has to prove it to me, show me that you can do this... Intel is doing a lot of right things. It had a great CES last week, a lot of buzz, but the results aren't there yet.” (03:03, Rick)

3. Technical Advances & U.S. Manufacturing

• 18A and 14A chip processes: Intel is bringing advanced processes (1.8nm & 1.4nm) to the U.S., using the latest ASML lithography equipment.
• Strategic importance: The U.S. previously lost advanced chipmaking to Taiwan, and Intel attempts to reclaim technological and manufacturing leadership.
  “This represents a comeback for Intel. If you ever hear that Intel's a comeback story, this is part and parcel of that.” (04:37, Asad)
• Adoption takes time:
  “To get to 14A…it takes a lot. So it's going to have to prove out this first process…maybe call it spring or late spring of 2027.” (06:37, Tim)
• Big customers & trials: Nvidia invested $5 billion and trialed 18A chips, but remains cautious. Amazon Web Services is another early user, but Intel still lacks major foundry partnerships at scale.
• Long runway:
  “There’s a lot for this story to work out in the future…I realize as a rational shareholder, it’s still got to come up with a major foundry partner.” (06:37, Asad)

4. Buy, Sell, or Hold – Analyst Perspectives

• Rick’s take:
  • Likes the turnaround, but won’t chase the stock now after a big run-up.
  • Waiting for tangible improvements in profitability and growth before adding.
    “I'm not so excited to jump on the stock now because it has run up so much…This is a long term play…better company now than it was a year ago…but I do think I want to wait…I'll be able to pick a better entry point.” (09:09, Rick)
• Asad’s approach:
  • Modest dollar-cost-averaging, expects volatility, credits CEO Lee Bhutan for turnaround energy and capital formation.
  • Advocates patience; sees opportunity for risk-tolerant, long-term investors. “I am a dollar cost average in buy on intel…this business is going to be volatile and the stock is going to be volatile to follow…if you have a little bit of risk tolerance and you study this business…averaging in…that's not a bad strategy.” (10:49, Asad)
• CEO Praise:
  “Let's give a lot of credit to Lipoutin…set the future into motion…proven to be good on the rubbing elbows side…the handshake side…sealed an investment from we the taxpayers and from Nvidia.” (10:49, Asad)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick on government investment:
  “You, me and Asit, we each owned about $60 if my math is correct, $60 worth of Intel. Just as being a US citizen…” (02:22)
• Asad on Intel as comeback:
  “This represents a comeback for Intel. If you ever hear that Intel's a comeback story, this is part and parcel of that.” (04:37)
• Rick’s caution:
  “Intel is definitely a better company now than it was a year ago... but I do think I want to wait…I'll be able to pick a better entry point.” (09:09)
• Asad on CEO Lee Bhutan:
  “He’s been able to roll with the punches with the Trump administration…sealed an investment from we the taxpayers and from Nvidia…showing that he brings a lot of tools to a very difficult turnaround.” (10:49)
• Asad’s advice for investors:
  “If you have a little bit of risk tolerance and you study this business, averaging in, especially in those volatile periods…the stock gets…taken to the woodshed, that's not a bad strategy.” (12:18)
• Both on long-term thesis:
  “AI ain't going anywhere, Tim. We know that. Right. So if they can produce the chips here, that's a great revenue stream for Intel in the coming years, a chance for it to be great again.” (12:40, Asad)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intel’s political meeting & federal funding: 01:00 – 02:30
• Fundamental analysis & market caution: 02:22 – 03:22
• Technical discussion (18A, 14A, ASML): 03:22 – 07:48
• Customer adoption & competitive landscape: 07:48 – 09:09
• Buy, sell, or hold analysis: 09:09 – 13:12
• Praise for CEO Lee Bhutan: 10:49 – 12:18
• Mindset Monday (value of taking breaks): 14:39 – 19:59

Mindset Monday: The Case for Taking Market Breaks

Discussion Highlights

• Tim’s reflection: Recent holiday break was restorative; recommends disconnecting occasionally even for professionals.

• Rick’s view:

  • Finds markets fun and integral to life, but values full disconnects (e.g., during travel).
  • “It is important to take this break, especially if you are watching the stock market every passing tick on your stocks. That is not healthy for anyone as we're all long-term investors.” (15:26)

• Asad’s break strategies:

  1. Walking outdoors.
  2. Traveling to disrupt routine.
  3. Getting absorbed in unrelated hobbies (e.g., reading, languages).
  • “When your mind is there, it's really trying to figure out…how do I achieve what I want to achieve?...But it always sees investing as this problem…The way that you actually can really help yourself solve that problem is to immerse yourself in other problems.” (17:02)

• Final Thoughts (Tim):

  • Taking breaks gives perspective; helps see holdings as businesses, not just tickers.
  • Encourages listeners to send mindset questions for future episodes.

Summary Takeaways

• Intel’s rally is driven by renewed U.S. government support, technical innovation, and a bold turnaround effort under CEO Lee Bhutan, but fundamentals lag.
• Cautious optimism prevails: Both analysts recognize Intel’s improved strategic position, but urge patience as operational and financial results catch up.
• For investors, dollar-cost-averaging during volatility is a reasonable approach for those with tolerance for risk and a long-term horizon.
• AI and U.S.-based manufacturing are powerful tailwinds, but the story’s full payoff is likely years away.
• Taking breaks from the daily grind of market-watching can offer valuable perspective for smarter, more resilient investing.

For questions or a feature in Mindset Monday, reach out to Tim Byers at tbeyers@fool.com.