Transcript
A (0:05)
We're practitioners and we go out, we talk to all the industry participants and the CEOs of these companies and the people making these decisions. And we just had our entire team down in Arizona for the UBS Tech Conference and met with pretty much the who's who of technology, you know, over that span. And it's not slowing down by any means. And for those that are skeptical, I would urge you to talk to the practitioners and, you know, forget about all the noise on Wall street right now and follow the data.
B (0:36)
That was Denny Fish, Portfolio manager for the Janice Henderson Investors Global Technology and Innovation Fund. I'm Motley fool producer Matt Greer. Now, Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross and analyst Asit Sharma recently talked with Fish about the investing landscape, AI CEs and how to build a resilient portfolio. Enjoy.
C (0:59)
Welcome to another Motley fool conversation. I'm Andy Cross alongside here senior analyst and advisor Asit Sharma. Today we welcome Denny Fish to the Motley Fool. Denny is a portfolio manager for the Janus Henderson Global Technology and Innovation Fund, and he also leads up the firm's technology sector research team, among many things, Denny, that I'm sure you do at Janice Henderson. Thank you so much for joining us. And welcome to the Motley Fool, Denny.
A (1:23)
Absolutely. Thanks for having me.
C (1:24)
Denny, it's great to have a chance to talk to you. And Asit, thanks for joining me because there is a lot of overlap and the styles and the stocks and the holdings as we look through the Global Tech and Innovation Fund, among many of the other holdings of Janice that you all have invested in over the years. And we've been big fans just in following along some of the most innovative investors that I know in the tech space. So it's great to have a chance to talk to you and maybe we'll just start off, Denny, with an overall thought on the markets and tech investing. We just wrapped up another great year for the markets, especially in large cap tech stocks. So maybe you can start off by giving us your thoughts on the investing landscape to start 2026.
A (2:03)
Yeah, absolutely. We continue to be pretty optimistic about the tech market in general. I mean, the fact of the matter is kind of the most important decision investors could have made for the last 20 years, kind of starting 2005ish, was to be overweight tech. And there's a reason for that. The secular trends that we've experienced, it was cloud, social mobile, for example, that really lasted for almost 20 years, laid the foundation for artificial intelligence and probably, you know, even more profound than the dawn of the commercial Internet and what we've seen, you know, since kind of the late 90s. And so, you know, we have that powerful, the secular theme that's developing that we feel strongly about. You know, we're going to be optimistic by our nature, particularly given we take a longer term view. But also depending on where you're at in tech, I mean, if we rewind, you know, last year was a strong year for tech, you know, so was 24 and so was 23. Been, you know, pretty exceptional years, but it hasn't been a rising tide lifts all boats by any means. You know, if I was just going to describe what's happened the last three years is you were either on the right side of AI or you weren't, or you were perceived not to be. And so, you know, the AI semiconductor ecosystem has been really, really strong for obvious reasons. And that's because the fundamentals have been very, very impressive and earnings have gone through the roof. And so even though a lot of these stocks are up a bunch, you know, their multiples actually aren't up that much, you know, and in some cases their multiples are lower than they were a year ago because the earnings have come through. And I'll tell you like one thing that we do, we're practitioners and we go out, we talk to all the industry participants and the CEOs of these companies and the people making these decisions. And we just had our entire team down in Ariz, Arizona for the UBS Tech Conference and met with pretty much the who's who of technology, you know, over that span. And it's not slowing down by any means. And for those that are skeptical, I would urge you to talk to the practitioners and you know, forget about all the noise on Wall street right now and follow the data points and they continue to be pretty strong, you know. And so we expect the AI infrastructure ecosystem to remain healthy. You know, what's interesting is we did start to see divergence in the mega caps, right? And so when we started the year last year, you know, Google was dead in the water. Search was, it was trouble. There's secular issues. Meta was the golden child with Llama. Meta had a huge run the first six months. Google did nothing. And now Meta has been a terrible stock the last six months and Google is on their front foot with Gemini. And so we will expect things to continue to ebb and flow like that this year and see more dispersion, say for example in the mag 7. And then, you know, like software was terrible last year, okay. And the reason that it had a, just a really difficult time was because where, you know, revenue growth accelerating, you know, earnings going up a lot in AI infrastructure, you know, most of the mega caps continuing to show really healthy earnings growth. The software industry as a whole just kind of what it is, what it is and you know, without accelerating fundamentals and this perceived threat of AI disruption across both horizontal and vertical software. And so you've seen a really wide dispersion in the software sector in terms of performance. And so the way I would Characterize thinking about 2026, expect AI infrastructure to remain strong, expect the large caps to continue to do quite well, but more dispersion as we've started to see between them based on fundamentals. And then we actually are starting to get more interested in areas of software because it's underperformed for effectively three years relative to semis and AI infrastructure. And there are some businesses that are going to be just fine as we get to the other side.
