Motley Fool Money – "It’s a Small World After All"

Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Rick Menars
Analysts: Nick Scipal, Jon Kwast
Theme: Global market shockwaves from Venezuela’s political shakeup, bounce-back stocks for 2026, and Disney forecasts.

Overview

This episode kicks off 2026 by diving into the global business implications of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, what it could mean for energy markets, and ramifications for select stocks. The team also debates the potential comeback of out-of-favor stocks such as Duolingo and Lululemon. They wrap up with bold predictions for Disney in 2026.

1. Venezuelan Upheaval: What It Means for Investors

Segment Start: 00:05

Key Points

• Historic US operation: Analysts draw parallels to the "biggest US Military commando operation since the bin Laden raid" ([00:53], Nick).
• Energy market focus: Venezuela owns over 300 billion barrels in oil reserves (17% of the world’s total) but supplies less than 1% of global output due to neglected infrastructure and underinvestment ([01:24], Nick).
• Potential turnarounds: The prospect of regime change could prompt an influx of foreign investment focused on updating energy infrastructure and increasing output.

Notable Insights & Quotes

• Nick: "Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, yet produces less than 1% of global supply today… Production today, just 1% of global supply… that's a 70% decline under the Chavez Maduro administrations." ([01:24])
• Investment required: $58 billion needed to rebuild pipelines, some of which haven’t been updated in 50 years ([01:54], Nick).

Winners & Losers Analysis

Timestamps: 02:19–04:49

• Winners:

  • Chevron: Currently the only US oil major active in Venezuela. "Chevron… produces about 150,000 barrels a day, about 70% of Venezuela's overall output." ([02:32], Nick)
  • Other US majors could benefit, but will be wary due to past nationalization.

• Losers:

  • Canadian oil producers: Venezuela’s heavy crude competes directly with Canadian oil sands output. If Venezuela bounces back, Canadian producers face stiff competition, especially for US Gulf Coast refineries. ([03:39], Nick)

Prospects & Timeline

• "Any realistic timeline, we're looking three to five years before really meaningful production increases take place." ([02:59], Nick)
• Near-term market moves already favor Chevron and penalize Canadian oil.

2. Market Reactions & Broader LatAm Implications

Timestamps: 04:49–07:48

• Market optimism:

  • US markets rose post-operation, reflecting a perceived reduction in geopolitical risk and hope for Venezuelan stability ([05:04–05:38], Nick).
  • "There really wasn't any crossfire… I think the market was relieved to see it appears this is the end of conflicts here." ([05:09], Nick)

• Surprise LatAm stock rally:

  • Mercado Libre (MELI), a longtime Fool favorite, jumped 10% on the news.
  • "If Venezuela turns from a headwind to a tailwind for Mercado Libre… I think folks are optimistic about Venezuela going from being a real laggard… to being something that can be a tailwind for further growth." ([06:27], Nick)

• Investor caveat:

  • Jon cautions, "It's a little bit premature to say that we're already there… It's going to take a long time to play out, if it ever does. The market tends to overreact both positively and negatively." ([07:14], Jon)

3. Bounce-Back Stocks for 2026: Duolingo & Lululemon

Segment Start: 09:06

Duolingo (DUOL)

Timestamps: 09:19–10:17

• Stock performance: Down 46% in 2025, 67% off highs.
• AI disruption fear: "One of the big headline grabbing things was when ChatGPT did a demonstration where essentially a different… version of Duolingo could be just created with some prompts… does this company have a durable competitive advantage?" ([09:29], Jon)
• Bullish thesis: CEO Luis Von Ahn urges a "long view"—business still growing, usage strong, and market overreacted.

Lululemon

Timestamps: 10:17–12:09

• Recent struggles: U.S. comps negative for the first time in years, despite global strength.
• Unconventional catalyst: Rick describes using a $75 AmEx credit for Lululemon—initially to mock the brand, but ended up liking the product, indicating latent brand appeal ([10:41], Rick).
• Price & activism: Stock is "very attractively priced after the markdown" ([11:55], Rick); potential for an organic recovery even amid activist pressure.

Investment Thesis Recap

Timestamps: 12:09–12:48

• Jon: "You look at the numbers, revenue is still at an all time high and its operating margin at 22%. To me this is not indicative of a business that is losing that brand power in a material way… So I think that it is overblown, the concerns that it has." ([12:17])
• Brand comparisons: Lululemon likened to Crocs' comeback—US weakness offset by international strength. ([12:48], Rick)

4. Disney Predictions for 2026

Segment Start: 14:15

Host Rick's Four Predictions:

1. Disney Will Announce an Internal CEO ([15:07])

• Rationale: Stability after 2020’s chaotic Chapek handoff; strong internal candidates, especially from Parks division. "The parks really are a, you know, trophy asset still… an example of a company that really has almost infinite pricing power." ([15:21], Nick)

2. Disney Will Stay Out of the Media Buying Frenzy ([16:13])

• Argument: Its IP library is massive; unlikely to acquire assets that would move the needle.
• Jon: "At its size, what are you going to acquire that's going to materially move the needle?… Let's do a lot with what we already have." ([16:41], Jon)
• Nick: Could be a seller—rumors of an ESPN spin-out; ESPN could become an independent company. ([17:17], Nick)

3. Disney Will Have This Year’s Biggest Movie ([17:52])

• Evidence: Dominated box office in 2024/2025; “Avengers: Doomsday” expected to be a lock for 2026.
• Jon: "There weren't many movies that… even could give it a run for its money." ([18:30])

4. Disney Will Beat the Market in 2026 ([18:54])

• Recovery narrative: Past five years lagged, but now streaming is profitable and earnings growth is returning.
• Jon (tempered optimism): "It's not unprecedented… you can have a low growth company that turns it around on the margin profile and does well as a stock." ([19:28])

5. Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Venezuela’s reserves:
  • "Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, yet produces less than 1% of global supply today." – Nick ([01:24])
• On US markets’ relief:
  • "There really wasn't any crossfire… The market was relieved… this is a one and done operation… expect more stability." – Nick ([05:09])
• On Lululemon’s brand:
  • "Revenue is still at an all time high and its operating margin at 22%. To me, this is not indicative of a business that is losing that brand power." – Jon ([12:17])
• On Disney’s pricing power:
  • "If you told folks five years ago that the Disney World prices would be where they are today… lines would still be out the door… people are willing to pay whatever it takes." – Nick ([15:21])
• On market overreaction:
  • "The market tends to overreact both positively and negatively." – Jon ([07:17])

6. Timestamps Key

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------|-------------------| | Venezuela implications | 00:05–07:48 | | Market/stocks impacted | 02:19–07:48 | | Bounce-back stocks: Duolingo, Lululemon | 09:06–12:48 | | Disney 2026 predictions | 14:15–19:58 |

For long-term investors, this episode delivers actionable macro context (Venezuela, oil, LatAm stocks), contrarian stock picks (DUOL, LULU), and thoughtful indicators on legacy icons like Disney. Each thesis is rooted in durable business metrics—not just headlines or hype.