It’s a Small World After All

Summary

Motley Fool Money – "It’s a Small World After All"

Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Rick Menars
Analysts: Nick Scipal, Jon Kwast
Theme: Global market shockwaves from Venezuela’s political shakeup, bounce-back stocks for 2026, and Disney forecasts.

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Overview

This episode kicks off 2026 by diving into the global business implications of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, what it could mean for energy markets, and ramifications for select stocks. The team also debates the potential comeback of out-of-favor stocks such as Duolingo and Lululemon. They wrap up with bold predictions for Disney in 2026.

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1. Venezuelan Upheaval: What It Means for Investors

Segment Start: 00:05

Key Points

• Historic US operation: Analysts draw parallels to the "biggest US Military commando operation since the bin Laden raid" ([00:53], Nick).
• Energy market focus: Venezuela owns over 300 billion barrels in oil reserves (17% of the world’s total) but supplies less than 1% of global output due to neglected infrastructure and underinvestment ([01:24], Nick).
• Potential turnarounds: The prospect of regime change could prompt an influx of foreign investment focused on updating energy infrastructure and increasing output.

Notable Insights & Quotes

• Nick: "Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, yet produces less than 1% of global supply today… Production today, just 1% of global supply… that's a 70% decline under the Chavez Maduro administrations." ([01:24])
• Investment required: $58 billion needed to rebuild pipelines, some of which haven’t been updated in 50 years ([01:54], Nick).

Winners & Losers Analysis

Timestamps: 02:19–04:49

• Winners:

  • Chevron: Currently the only US oil major active in Venezuela. "Chevron… produces about 150,000 barrels a day, about 70% of Venezuela's overall output." ([02:32], Nick)
  • Other US majors could benefit, but will be wary due to past nationalization.

• Losers:

  • Canadian oil producers: Venezuela’s heavy crude competes directly with Canadian oil sands output. If Venezuela bounces back, Canadian producers face stiff competition, especially for US Gulf Coast refineries. ([03:39], Nick)

Prospects & Timeline

• "Any realistic timeline, we're looking three to five years before really meaningful production increases take place." ([02:59], Nick)
• Near-term market moves already favor Chevron and penalize Canadian oil.

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2. Market Reactions & Broader LatAm Implications

Timestamps: 04:49–07:48

• Market optimism:

  • US markets rose post-operation, reflecting a perceived reduction in geopolitical risk and hope for Venezuelan stability ([05:04–05:38], Nick).
  • "There really wasn't any crossfire… I think the market was relieved to see it appears this is the end of conflicts here." ([05:09], Nick)

• Surprise LatAm stock rally:

  • Mercado Libre (MELI), a longtime Fool favorite, jumped 10% on the news.
  • "If Venezuela turns from a headwind to a tailwind for Mercado Libre… I think folks are optimistic about Venezuela going from being a real laggard… to being something that can be a tailwind for further growth." ([06:27], Nick)

• Investor caveat:

  • Jon cautions, "It's a little bit premature to say that we're already there… It's going to take a long time to play out, if it ever does. The market tends to overreact both positively and negatively." ([07:14], Jon)

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3. Bounce-Back Stocks for 2026: Duolingo & Lululemon

Segment Start: 09:06

Duolingo (DUOL)

Timestamps: 09:19–10:17

• Stock performance: Down 46% in 2025, 67% off highs.
• AI disruption fear: "One of the big headline grabbing things was when ChatGPT did a demonstration where essentially a different… version of Duolingo could be just created with some prompts… does this company have a durable competitive advantage?" ([09:29], Jon)
• Bullish thesis: CEO Luis Von Ahn urges a "long view"—business still growing, usage strong, and market overreacted.

Lululemon

Timestamps: 10:17–12:09

• Recent struggles: U.S. comps negative for the first time in years, despite global strength.
• Unconventional catalyst: Rick describes using a $75 AmEx credit for Lululemon—initially to mock the brand, but ended up liking the product, indicating latent brand appeal ([10:41], Rick).
• Price & activism: Stock is "very attractively priced after the markdown" ([11:55], Rick); potential for an organic recovery even amid activist pressure.

Investment Thesis Recap

Timestamps: 12:09–12:48

• Jon: "You look at the numbers, revenue is still at an all time high and its operating margin at 22%. To me this is not indicative of a business that is losing that brand power in a material way… So I think that it is overblown, the concerns that it has." ([12:17])
• Brand comparisons: Lululemon likened to Crocs' comeback—US weakness offset by international strength. ([12:48], Rick)

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4. Disney Predictions for 2026

Segment Start: 14:15

Host Rick's Four Predictions:

1. Disney Will Announce an Internal CEO ([15:07])

• Rationale: Stability after 2020’s chaotic Chapek handoff; strong internal candidates, especially from Parks division. "The parks really are a, you know, trophy asset still… an example of a company that really has almost infinite pricing power." ([15:21], Nick)

2. Disney Will Stay Out of the Media Buying Frenzy ([16:13])

• Argument: Its IP library is massive; unlikely to acquire assets that would move the needle.
• Jon: "At its size, what are you going to acquire that's going to materially move the needle?… Let's do a lot with what we already have." ([16:41], Jon)
• Nick: Could be a seller—rumors of an ESPN spin-out; ESPN could become an independent company. ([17:17], Nick)

3. Disney Will Have This Year’s Biggest Movie ([17:52])

• Evidence: Dominated box office in 2024/2025; “Avengers: Doomsday” expected to be a lock for 2026.
• Jon: "There weren't many movies that… even could give it a run for its money." ([18:30])

4. Disney Will Beat the Market in 2026 ([18:54])

• Recovery narrative: Past five years lagged, but now streaming is profitable and earnings growth is returning.
• Jon (tempered optimism): "It's not unprecedented… you can have a low growth company that turns it around on the margin profile and does well as a stock." ([19:28])

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5. Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Venezuela’s reserves:
  • "Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, yet produces less than 1% of global supply today." – Nick ([01:24])
• On US markets’ relief:
  • "There really wasn't any crossfire… The market was relieved… this is a one and done operation… expect more stability." – Nick ([05:09])
• On Lululemon’s brand:
  • "Revenue is still at an all time high and its operating margin at 22%. To me, this is not indicative of a business that is losing that brand power." – Jon ([12:17])
• On Disney’s pricing power:
  • "If you told folks five years ago that the Disney World prices would be where they are today… lines would still be out the door… people are willing to pay whatever it takes." – Nick ([15:21])
• On market overreaction:
  • "The market tends to overreact both positively and negatively." – Jon ([07:17])

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6. Timestamps Key

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------|-------------------| | Venezuela implications | 00:05–07:48 | | Market/stocks impacted | 02:19–07:48 | | Bounce-back stocks: Duolingo, Lululemon | 09:06–12:48 | | Disney 2026 predictions | 14:15–19:58 |

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For long-term investors, this episode delivers actionable macro context (Venezuela, oil, LatAm stocks), contrarian stock picks (DUOL, LULU), and thoughtful indicators on legacy icons like Disney. Each thesis is rooted in durable business metrics—not just headlines or hype.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

It's a small world after all. I promise this will make sense soon because Motley fool money starts now. I'm Rick Menars and today I'm joined by fellow analyst Nick Scipal and Jon Kwast. We're going to take a look at some potential bounce back candidates for 2026 and a look at Disney predictions heading into the new year. But first, Venezuela. The big news over the weekend was the US Capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, detaining them in the US to face charges of narco terrorism, drug trafficking and conspiracy. Nick, you are covering this story. We will obviously not be digging too deep into the political ramifications. That's not really what we do here. But what are the biggest implications of this news for investors?

[C]

Certainly huge news. Geopolitically would argue this is the biggest US Military commando operation really going back to the bin Laden raid more than a decade ago. For investors, for the business community, the big takeaway is what's going to happen with Venezuela's energy production. Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, yet produces less than 1% of global supply today. And that's really a trend of kind of withering infrastructure that's been going on for the past couple decades. First under the Hugo Chavez administration and then under former president, now Maduro. As I mentioned, Venezuela has over 300 billion barrels of proven reserves, about 17% of the global total. But production today, just 1% of global supply. In the late 1990s, Venezuela was producing 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. Today now under $1 million a day, that's a 70% decline under the Chavez Maduro administrations. And if you look at disclosures from the national oil company of Venezuela, its pipelines haven't been updated in by some accounts 50 years. Would need over $58 billion to rebuild those pipelines. And by the reports of the administration, the US Administration, part of what's going to happen after this, after this regime change is an investment in that energy infrastructure. What becomes of Venezuela's oil production going forward? Can new investment return that, that trend to the growth that we saw in the late 90s? Yeah.

[B]

So speaking of that growth and potential, who are the potential winners and losers from a comeback in Venezuelan energy production?

[C]

Right. So it's the big winners, you know, to really jump off, off the bat are the US oil major, Chevron, the big one. They're the only US major currently operating in Venezuela. Produces about 150,000 barrels a day, about 70% of Venezuela's overall output. Those other oil Companies formerly operated in Venezuela, however, in the nationalization push over a decade ago, lost some of their production, have some claims against the Venezuelan government to try to get some of those back. So those big US oil companies, particularly Chevron, have the relationships, the infrastructure, the head start to get underway in Venezuela. However, these are companies that were burned in the past. Under nationalization, they're going to want stability before they line up to spend big money on the investment needed to get production back in line. Any realistic timeline, we're looking three to five years before really meaningful production increases take place. That's really a long term thesis. That said, to the extent that production can get back online, the losers here would be potentially Canadian oil producers. Venezuelans crude oil is very similar in grade to the oil that comes out of Canada's oil sands. That same heavy sour grade of oil that are used to produce things, things like diesel fuel in US Gulf coast refineries. With that decline in Venezuelan oil production that I talked about earlier, Canadian producers have come in to fill that gap. Canada went from producing 2.7 million barrels a day exported to the US in 2013 up to 4.4 million barrels back in 2024. Obviously if those Venezuelan barrels come back online, that is direct competition for those Canadian oil producers and could put downward pressure on that production. But again, as I said, you know, we would need several years of investment to get that production back online. And again, these are on all one for one substitutions. A lot of this Canadian heavy oil gets piped directly to Midwestern refineries. So the competition would be really more for oil that goes to supply refineries on the Gulf Coast. But if you know, investment can get Venezuelan oil production back online, that would be direct competition for Canadian producers. That's why you've seen, you know, the same way big US oil companies have moved up. Today on the news of what's going on in Venezuela, you've seen some, some real downward pressure on the Canadian producers.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So speaking of the market, the initial market reaction. So the market tends to weaken when there's geopolitical crossfire. And that definitely happened over the weekend. The US markets initially moved higher on Monday. Why do you think that's the case beyond just the energy companies general buoyant market?

[C]

Yeah, I mean I think the market was, was relieved to see there doesn't appear to be further kind of, you know, you mentioned crossfire in your question. There really wasn't any crossfire. Right. There was only kind of fire going one direction for the most part. When you look at the casualties and the success of of the operation. So I think the market was was relieved to see it appears this is the end of conflicts here. Now that is obviously far from certain, but I think that that's what the market is saying here is that this is a one and done operation and that moving forward we should see more stability and perhaps, you know, more investment in Venezuela, which would be good for the global economy.

[B]

I was surprised to see key Latin American stocks moving higher on the news since they made potential targets if things keep escalating. Longtime rule breaker recommendation. Mercado libre was up 10% just two hours before the close today. Does that make sense to you?

[C]

Potentially again, if Venezuela's economy can get back on track, really huge opportunity for Mercado Libre and other e commerce players in the industry. Currently Venezuela less than 5% of of Mercado Libre's revenue. But there's more than 30 million people in Venezuela and this has been bordering on a failed state for the better part of a decade. No e commerce infrastructure. You follow Mercado Libre more than me, but it's been a recurring thing on the earnings calls of if we back out Venezuela, we're doing pretty good. Well, can you imagine if Venezuela turns from a headwind to a tailwind for Mercado Libre? This is a company that you saw what happened when Argentina got back on track under a new administration that became a tailwind for the business. I think folks are optimistic about Venezuela going from being a real laggard in the South American economy to being something that can be a tailwind for further growth. If that's the case, then MercadoLibre won't be the only company benefiting from that.

[B]

Excellent. John, let's bring you into the mix as an investor. What's your takeaway from the situation?

[A]

Yeah. As everything that Nick just said, the arrow is pointing in a positive direction for various perspectives, especially when you going back to Mercado Libre. Right. One of the big reasons it has struggled in Venezuela is because of currency debasement. That currency just keeps going down and down. It's hard to do business in that environment. So pointing towards stabilization, that that is good long term. And I think it's a little bit premature to say that we're already there, that MercadoLibre and others are already going to enjoy that benefit. It's going to take a long time to play out, if it ever does. I think that probably the market is going to get a little bit impatient. Right, right. Because it does tend to overreact both positively and negatively. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that. But I definitely understand what it's seeing and why it's having a positive outlook. And I think it's right. Yeah. If we see stabilization in Venezuela, that's a good thing for some of these businesses.

[B]

So thank you, John and Nick, thank you for your expertise on this. Ultimately, a big story to kick off the new year. The world and its investors will be watching. Coming up next, can some of last year's losers be big winners? Let's see if two out of favor stocks can can have monster makeovers in 2026.

[D]

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[B]

Last year was a good one for investors, but not for all investors. John and I took a look at two rule breakers that fell hard last year. We think they can bounce back this year. I went with Lululemon but you went with Duolingo. John, what's going on with Duolingo?

[A]

Yeah, so Duolingo ticker symbol D U O L. This Stock was down 46% in 2025, Rick, and down 67% from its highs in 2025. So losing two and some variety of factors going on. But one of the big headline grabbing things was when Chat GPT did a demonstration where essentially a different a homegrown version of Duolingo could be just created with some prompts in the, in the app. And I think that that caused investors to say, does this company have a durable competitive advantage or am I just going to learn a new language from something that I create on my own in a chatbot with using generative AI. And so we see this stock price pulling way, way back. The CEO of this company, Luis Von Ahn, he would say take the long view. And I think that that's right. And so there's many reasons why I think that this can bounce back in 2026.

[B]

Yeah. And especially, I mean it didn't just such a big winner before this year, this past year, 2025, you know, and then clearly a stock that had a lot of momentum in business that's still growing. So I'm with you on Duolingo, but I went with with Lululemon. So Lululemon has had a very rough downward facing dog kind. Basically all you have to do is follow the sales. Sales. This company in the athleisure market and the upscale yoga wear market was doing so well for a long time and then just basically stumbled. And over the past couple quarters, comps in the Americas in the US rather have been negative. A company that's been traditionally growing and while it's doing well internationally and in other markets like Canada in the U.S. is sort of struggling, which is still its largest market. But I do like it here. Um, I was at Full Fest 25 a few months ago wearing Lululemon pants that I'd gotten from my American American Express Platinum card because they are now having like a free $75 credit you can use every quarter. And I did it to mock Lululemon. At the time I was sort of bearish when I was making that presentation. I'm saying look, look at this, this 50, 50 something old guy wearing Lululemon pants on camera. Probably like hurting the brand by doing this. But in the process, I had a very comfortable, comfortable pair of pants on that evening. And since I used my, my December credit, I have some friends that are Lululemon fans and didn't know about the credit. Now they're using it. So to me, my mind has sort of got done a full 180 on this where I thought, you know, I thought when, when the bank of. I'm sorry, when, when, when American Express, when their Platinum card has a credit like $50 Sachs credit every six months, you can expect bad news. As you see, Sachs is now almost struggling financially right now. But in this case, even though it may seem desperate for Lululemon to reach for something like this, for this kind of big discount being offered, I think it could help. So I am with Lululemon and there's activism is happening, but I think organically it'll be able to fix itself in 2026. Very attractively priced after the markdown. So yes, stock that I think will bounce back.

[A]

And Rick, I love the point that you're making here because I think that with a brand like Lululemon, the argument is against it that maybe it's losing its brand power, maybe it's losing its luster. But you look at the numbers, revenue is still at an all time high and its operating margin at 22%. To me this is not indicative of a business that is losing that brand power in a material way. At least not right now. It hasn't manifested yet. So I think that it is overblown. The concerns that it has. Yes, a slowdown, yes, a headwind here and there. But I think you're right. I think this is a stock that is poised to bounce back in the coming year.

[B]

Yeah. And doing really well internationally. I keep thinking to like Crocs, which has been a disappointing stock lately. But there were time when the US everyone just figured out Crocs are done and internationally started to take off and then celebrities started to hop on Crocs and then it happens. It bounced back for a while. But that's it for that. Coming up next, it's a small world after all. Let's take a look at some predictions for Disney in 2026.

[D]

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[B]

Drink ag1.com fool so Disney World did not have a very good year last year the stock was up 3% losing to the market in 2025, it's had a few rough years. I was covering the company earlier this week. Well, I know it's Monday, but earlier over the weekend and published earlier on Monday. And I had four Disney predictions. And John, I know you and I, we follow these Florida companies so we know Disney. And Nick, if you have some thoughts, go ahead and share them. But I want to quickly go over these four predictions that I have and you guys tell me if you think yes or no, if you think it'll happen. So the first is Disney will announce an internal CEO this year. And my argument for that is that this is a company that Bob Iger has said he's going to step down at the end of this year. The board has already said they're going to announce the next Successor early in 2026 to avoid what happened back in 2020 during the Bob Chapek handoff. But I do think that Disney will announce an internal CEO even though the stock has had, has failed to beat the market in for the last five years because the company's still doing well. It's a company, very complicated company, a lot of moving parts. So I think they will hire internally. I don't know who it'll be, but I don't think they're going to seek an outside CEO. Any thoughts?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, the rumors are that the head of the parks division seems to be in pole position to win, you know, win that job. Obviously there's been three names kicked around. You know, the parks really are a, you know, trophy asset still took. You mentioned the parks had a tough year in, in 2025, still was able to take up price in the fall. And it's an example of a company that really has almost infinite pricing power. I mean, if you told folks five years ago that the Disney World prices would be where they are today and that the lines would still be out the door to get in. This is an example of a company that can just take up price whenever they want to. And their willingness to do so I think reflects that. They know that their asset is, is one that is globally. People are willing to pay whatever it takes to be a part of that park.

[B]

Thank you, Nick. So my second prediction for John. Nick, anyone who has thoughts, it will stay out of the media buying frenzy. So it did that in 2025. We saw Paramount get bought up in the summer. Obviously the year ended with Warner Brothers discovery and a bidding war eventually go to Netflix. I think they're just going to continue. They were not an active bidder, at least not A prominent bidder. I think they're going to continue to stay out of buying assets. They already have enough stuff in their arsenal. Thoughts on that?

[A]

Yeah, I couldn't agree more with you, Rick, because what more does Disney really need? I mean, the intellectual property library that it has at its disposal, there's so many options that it has just because of how vast it already is. So plus, at its size, what are you going to acquire that's going to materially move the needle? It's going to be a lot of money. I don't think that that's the path that Disney wants to go. Definitely it's in the mode of let. Let's do a lot with what we already have. I think that the Mandalorian is a great example of what it can do with a franchise when it has a really good story to tell. And so I think it's going to run that playbook.

[C]

Yeah. If anything, I would expect Disney to be a seller of assets we were talking about before we hopped on on the call. Would not be surprised to see ESPN spun out of Disney, whether, whether it's next year or a few years down the road. The head of espn, Jimmy Pitaro, was one of the names kicked around as potential Disney CEO. While again, we haven't had the final ce looks like he's not going to be going to be the choice. They have been expanding their assets. Back in this fall when they took over NFL Network, there's been all this conversation of what's next for espn, and I think what could be next for ESPN is a life as an independent company.

[B]

My third prediction was Disney will have this year's biggest movie. And this is almost cheating, but it really wasn't when I look back. So Disney had the three highest grossing movies worldwide in 2024, had three of four in 2025. The other one was a Chinese movie. So out of the US Studios, there's only been six movies that have grossed more than a billion dollars in tickets in 2024, 25, Disney put out all of them. So I'm basically saying, as any Marvel fan knows, Avengers Doomsday comes out in December of this year. And I think it's pretty much a lock. Just like Avatar this year in 2025, I think it's pretty much a lock to be the biggest movie. I don't know if you guys have any thoughts on that. If not, we can move on to the fourth prediction.

[A]

I mean, there weren't many movies that came up on the slate that even could give it a run. For its money. Really. I mean Christopher Nolan is going to have the Odyssey coming out later this year. But you know what, the trailer wasn't great. I, I don't see a lot of buzz for it. So the Hunger Games come out Dune. But really I, I don't see anything that can. Those are the only ones I see that could potentially challenge the crown. But I, I don't think that they will succeed. I think you're right. Disney gets it.

[B]

Yeah. My fourth one is Disney will beat the market in 2026. Again. This is a stock that has actually lost to the last five years. Very disappointing 3% gain last year in a year when media stocks were soaring on takeover news. But I do think the stock is attractively priced a forward earnings multiple in the mid teens. It is growing, predicted to grow its earnings at a double digit pace all since its streaming business turned profitable in fiscal 2024. Revenue growth is still slow, but I think just the more efficient Disney that we're going to be seeing in the next few years is enough to get investors excited in the company again. Thoughts on that?

[A]

Well, it's not unprecedented, Rick, that's for sure that you can have a low growth company that turns it around on the margin profile and does well as a stock. And one example I'll give from 2025 is Dollar General. It didn't put up much top line growth, but it had the profit margin improvement and was a solid, solid performing stock in 2025. Now I'm personally pretty lukewarm when it comes to Disney stock outlook, but I see your point that it doesn't have to put up a ton of top line growth in order to be a good stock for the coming year.

[B]

And Bey beyond, well, Toy Story 5 is coming out. So to infinity and beyond. We'll close on that.

[C]

John.

[B]

Well done, John and Nick, thank you for indulging me today. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. See our full advertising disclosures. Please check our show notes For John Kwast, Nick Stipel and the entire Motley fool money team, I'm Rick Menars. May your days be sunny and your life Motley Fulmun.