Motley Fool Money – "It's the Big Tech Earnings Game! AAPL, META, MSFT"

Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Rick Menars
Guest Analyst: Sammet Dio

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the highly anticipated earnings reports from three tech giants—Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Host Rick Menars and analyst Sammet Dio explore how these companies are navigating surging AI-driven capital expenditure, shifting market dynamics, and ongoing innovation challenges. The episode is rich with forecasts, data comparisons, and analyst expectations ahead of a market-moving week.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Tech’s AI Capex Surge

(00:34–04:05)

• AI Arms Race Data:

  • Capital expenditures (capex) among Big Tech are soaring, primarily for AI investment.
  • Projected 2025 increases over 2024 in AI spending:
    • Alphabet: +75%
    • Amazon: +50%
    • Meta: +90%
    • Microsoft: +69%
    • Apple: +35% ("a BB gun to an arms race," as Rick jokes).

• Analysis and Outlook:

  • Sammet Dio [01:48]:
    “It’s all gas, no brakes for AI spending… Meta just continues to astound us with the numbers they report every quarter when it comes to their CapEx spending. And Zuckerberg is not holding back.”
  • Analysts expect continued acceleration, with even Apple (traditionally more conservative) needing to ramp up to stay competitive.
  • Not just a Big Tech story—smaller tech and non-tech firms (e.g., Duolingo, Toast) are also investing heavily, recognizing AI as an operational backbone.

• Rick’s Take [02:33]:
  “I think Apple right now is almost like Nintendo in the console war... they’ve never been about the spec wars but I think this is probably the year… they’re going to finally come through with what they’ve been promising for about two years now and that’s make it AI centric.”

2. Apple’s Earnings Preview

(04:57–06:43)

• iPhone 17 Release Driving Potential Supercycle:

  • After several years of lackluster growth, analysts expect a “major upgrade cycle.”
  • Fiscal first quarter to capture first full quarter of iPhone 17 sales.
  • Potential for iPhone revenue to top $70B.
  • Service businesses (App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+) continue performing strongly.

• China Market Watch:

  • Apple recently claimed the top spot for smartphones in China—a key battleground given strong local competitors.

• Sammet on Apple [05:37]:
  “People tend to forget about Apple because [they’re] kind of behind in the AI race, but they’re still a dominant tech company… We could see iPhone revenue potentially exceeding $70 billion.”

3. Meta’s Earnings Outlook

(06:43–09:39)

• Performance Overview:

  • 14 of last 15 years: double-digit revenue growth.
  • Underperformed market by ~16.5% last year; currently “fourth place” in big tech market cap race.

• Focus Areas for Earnings:

  • Capex guidance—Meta targeting $70–72B for 2025, much going to AI.
  • Ad business: critical holiday ad spend, Chinese exporter activity, and the ongoing boost from AI-aided targeting.
  • Reality Labs (Metaverse division) expected ~$4–5B quarterly loss—still scrutinized by investors.

• Rick on Meta’s Engagement [09:39]:
  “Meta up 8%. So 8% you go, okay, all right. The audience is growing. That’s fine. Ad impression is up 14% year over year, which tells me engagement is rising. And average price for ad... up 10 per impression.”

• AI Spend vs. Profits:

  • Meta’s Q4 earnings estimates have risen, but full-year 2026 expectations have fallen—analysts worried about margin compression from relentless AI investments.

4. Microsoft’s Earnings Preview

(09:39–12:39)

• Recent Growth:

  • 18% revenue growth in fiscal Q1 2026—the fastest since Y2K.
  • Stock has underperformed market by 8.6% in the last year.

• Watchlist for the Quarter:

  • Azure: Q1 grew 40%; anything below 38–39% in Q2 could punish the stock.
  • Copilot (AI Assistant): Adoption and transition from pilot to deployment.
  • Office 365: Growth in users and per-user revenue.
  • Gaming/Hardware: Xbox and gaming-related income.

• Sammet on Microsoft [11:34]: “Microsoft strikes me as one of the more broader companies in the tech space… Commercial Office 365 seats and revenue per user to gauge all this capex spend.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick on Apple’s Strategy [02:33]:
  “Apple…is almost like Nintendo in the console war...they’ve never been about the spec wars but I think this is probably the year…they’re going to finally come through with what they’ve been promising for about two years now and that’s make it AI centric.”

• Sammet on Meta’s Spending [01:48]:
  “Meta just continues to astound us with the numbers they report every quarter when it comes to their CapEx spending. And Zuckerberg is not holding back. He is not afraid to spend.”

• Rick’s Playful Meta Take [09:39]:
  “The Oculus may as well be branded innocuous. It’s not moving the needle. I have a first gen Oculus that I haven’t used in like two years. It’s that sad.”

• On Microsoft Guidance [11:34]:
  “If we see any drop below 38 or 39% [Azure growth] that could severely punish the company.”

Rapid Fire: Beat, Raise, or Miss?

(13:13–14:17)

Rick challenges Sammet to a quick-fire prediction game on the three earnings:

• Apple:

  • Sammet: “I think they’re going to be a beat and raise.” [13:27]
  • Rick: “I think a beat and raise is in order… margins may not be as nice… but, yeah, I’m with you.” [13:29]

• Meta:

  • Sammet: “I think they could be a beat but no raise. That capex spending is just going to tamp down on that.” [13:44]
  • Rick: “I agree with you… a beat, not a raise.” [13:49]

• Microsoft:

  • Sammet: “I think they’re going to miss.” [14:02]
  • Rick: “I have a miss too… if they’re going to prove moral, this may be a good time for it.” [14:05]

Timestamps for Crucial Segments

• AI Capex Race & Macro Overview | 00:34–04:05
• Apple Earnings Preview | 04:57–06:43
• Meta Discussion | 06:43–09:39
• Microsoft Discussion | 09:39–12:39
• Beat, Raise, or Miss? Game | 13:13–14:17

Episode Takeaways

• AI infrastructure is the new competitive battleground, and Big Tech’s capex commitments show no signs of slowing.
• Apple looks set for a much-awaited “supercycle” thanks to iPhone 17, but must prove it can accelerate both hardware and services revenue.
• Meta’s relentless AI investments could pressure near-term margins, but ad business fundamentals remain strong.
• Microsoft’s cloud and AI bets are crucial, with razor-thin tolerance from investors for slowing growth.

For investors, this is a critical earnings week: the results and forecasts from Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will set the tone for tech valuations and AI optimism well into 2026.