Jobs, Cars, AI and Financial Freedom!

Summary

Motley Fool Money: Jobs, Cars, AI, and Financial Freedom! Release Date: July 3, 2025
Host: Jason Moser
Guests: Andy Cross, Chief Investment Officer at Motley Fool

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1. Jobs Report and Banking Sector Insights

Overview:
The episode kicks off with a discussion on the latest jobs report released earlier than usual due to the holiday weekend. The report indicates a strong performance, particularly in state and local government sectors, while the federal side faces some challenges.

Key Points:

• Overall Performance: The jobs report surpassed expectations, signaling robust employment growth.
• Sector Breakdown: Healthcare and services led with 40% of the net gain, followed by state and local government at 32%. Construction, especially specialty contracting, made up 10% of the gains.
• Impact on Interest Rates: The strong report led to a rise in yields, reducing the likelihood of anticipated rate cuts from 25% in July to less than 7%.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [01:16]: “Healthcare and services were very strong, accounting for 40% of the 147,000 net gains... Construction focusing on specialty roofing and supplying accounted for 100% of the construction gains.”
• Andy Cross [04:11]: “We are seeing a little bit of stress on the office and those white-collar jobs... At some point in the near future, expecting that 50% of white-collar jobs could be eliminated or replaced by AI.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Home Depot Acquisition: The strength in specialty contracting ties into Home Depot's acquisition of GMS, aiming to expand their distribution in the contracting sector.
• Banking Stress Tests: All 22 banks examined passed the Fed’s stress tests, demonstrating resilience against severe economic downturns. Dividend increases and share repurchase authorizations followed, reflecting banks' confidence in their financial health.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [05:23]: “Goldman increased their dividend by 33%, JPMorgan by 7%, Bank of America by 8%. Naturally, we're going to see them start to return capital more to shareholders.”
• Andy Cross [08:07]: “Banks are well-capitalized and better positioned now. They're expected to take advantage of a healthy consumer both on the commercial and retail sides.”

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2. Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Update

Overview:
The conversation shifts to the automotive sector, focusing on the performance of EV sales amidst market headwinds. While some automakers are experiencing declines, others like GM are defying the trend.

Key Points:

• Overall Sales Trends: EV sales have slowed, with Tesla experiencing a significant drop in global vehicle sales by 13.5% in Q2 compared to the previous year.
• Automaker Performances:
  • Ford: Despite a 14% increase in overall deliveries, EV sales fell over 30% year-over-year due to challenges in their EV lineup.
  • GM: Contrarily, GM's EV sales more than doubled, showcasing resilience and growth in this segment.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [10:20]: “Tesla saw continued weakness through this quarter... The investing case is not about what is happening right now, it's really what's going to happen with full self-driving and the robo-taxi initiatives.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Tesla's Challenges: Struggles in China and increased competition are impacting Tesla's sales. However, the focus remains on long-term initiatives like full self-driving technology.
• Ford's Strategy: Success in traditional combustion engines and hybrids has driven Ford's growth, even as their EV segment faces setbacks.
• GM’s Growth: GM's EV success highlights effective strategies and possibly stronger market acceptance compared to peers.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [12:40]: “Ford had their employee pricing for all promotions, so they went out there on the pricing side. We’ll see how that ends up on the gross margins.”

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3. Cloudflare's Strategic Move in the AI Landscape

Overview:
The episode delves into Cloudflare's recent initiative to give customers control over AI crawlers, impacting how large language models access and utilize web data.

Key Points:

• AI Crawler Management: Cloudflare now allows new customers to decide whether to permit or block AI crawlers, with an option to implement a pay-per-crawl model.
• Support for Publishers: This move is aimed at helping publishers protect their content and potentially monetize access from AI entities.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [15:36]: “Cloudflare is accountable for maybe 20% of the global Internet traffic... Helping their publishing clients protect their data is very smart for Cloudflare.”
• Andy Cross [18:30]: “This starts to address how we can continue to get new fresh content out there and have that get monetized... It’s a very competitive space.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Industry Impact: Cloudflare's actions could influence the broader AI and internet ecosystem by setting standards for content access and monetization.
• Market Adoption: Early adopters like Conde Nast, Time, Pinterest, Quora, and Reddit are on board, indicating significant industry interest.
• Future Implications: While not expected to cause immediate headwinds, this move fosters a sustainable approach to AI development and content protection.

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4. Stocks to Celebrate Financial Freedom

Overview:
In the concluding segment, Andy Cross shares stocks from his portfolio that exemplify growth, dividends, and long-term financial freedom.

Key Points:

• High-Growth Stocks:
  • Nvidia: Up over 1200%, playing a crucial role in Cross’s portfolio.
  • Netflix and Chipotle: Both have delivered strong performance and growth.
• Dividend and Value Stocks:
  • Home Depot: A consistent performer with reliable dividends, suitable for long-term holding.
  • Waste Management: Provides steady dividends and operates a vast network of disposal sites.
• Under-the-Radar Pick:
  • RBC Bearings (RBC): A decade-old investment focusing on high-precision ball bearings for aerospace and defense, offering margin expansion and steady growth.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Cross [20:30]: “Nvidia has done so well, it’s up more than 1200% for me... Home Depot is my largest position.”
• Andy Cross [21:13]: “RBC Bearings plays into the growth market with high-precision ball bearings used in aerospace and defense... It’s up very nicely as a multi-bagger for me.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Diversified Portfolio: Cross emphasizes the importance of a diversified portfolio spanning high-growth tech stocks, reliable dividend payers, and niche industrial companies.
• Long-Term Perspective: The selected stocks highlight strategies for both capital appreciation and income generation, aligning with the goal of achieving financial freedom.

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Conclusion

Andy Cross and Jason Moser provide a comprehensive analysis of current economic indicators, sector-specific trends, and strategic investment opportunities. From robust jobs reports and resilient banks to the evolving EV market and innovative moves in the AI space, the episode offers valuable insights for stock investors seeking long-term growth and financial independence.

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Disclaimer:
Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. The Motley Fool may have positions in the stocks mentioned and may buy or sell them in the future. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Transcript

[Jason Moser]

Foreign jobs, cars, AI and financial freedom. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm Jason Moser. Joining me today. It's Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross. Andy, thanks for being here.

[Andy Cross]

Jason, thanks for having me on the holiday week.

[Jason Moser]

Yes, holiday week, indeed. On today's show, we're gonna take a closer look at the state of the EV market. Cloudflare is, I guess, standing up to AI, and we've got some stocks that make us want to celebrate financial freedom. But first, Andy, let's talk jobs and banks. The jobs report came out this morning a day early due to the holiday weekend. It seemed like a big, pretty good report. Market's receiving it well. It was good on the state and local government side, whereas the federal side, it seemed like there's some more headwinds, which I guess shouldn't be surprising given the last few months with DOGE and their efforts to try to sort of trim the fat, so to speak. But what did you see in this jobs report that stood out to you?

[Andy Cross]

Yeah, Jason, I think it was a good report. It certainly beat was ahead of the consensus, but it wasn't like blazingly great like it was maybe a few, you know, know, years ago. We saw interesting we saw the futures you mentioned, the stocks rebound nicely and the the expectations for a rate cut had dropped from 25% in July down to less than 7%. So clearly, as the yields moved higher on the strength of this report, investors betting that maybe those rate cuts that they were maybe expecting in the summer are going to get pushed out. But what was really interesting to me is inside, underneath the hood, Jason, healthcare and services, very Strong, accounted for 40% of the 147,000 net gains at as you mentioned, state and government accounted for 32% of those gains as well. What was also fascinating, Jason, and speaks to a little bit of the news we saw this week. Construction accounted for about 10% of the overall gains. And specialty contracting, construction focusing on like very specialty roofing, supplying, things like that. They were accounted for 100% of the construction gains. And that also speaks to why I think we saw Home Depot going after and putting out that acquisition for gms, another specialty retailer, distributor, to build out their distribution business on the contracting side. So strength there, I think, speaks to that acquisition of why it's so attractive for Home Depot.

[Jason Moser]

Yeah, I'm glad you brought Home Depot up because it does seem to me like, you know, we're in a position where it and the conversation goes on and on about housing supply. And it seems like there's just not enough supply to meet the demand. But you know, when you look further out, you see the opportunity there. Whether it's home builders, whether it's home improvements, retailers like Home Depot or Lowe's, it seems like they're poised for a pretty good stretch here going forward as we see more investment made in the housing market here domestically, I think, yeah.

[Andy Cross]

Jason, I think we just have to see rates start to normalize. And that did not show up in this report. So that's something that's going to, I didn't look at the home building stocks today. That's, that's going to be a challenge. Just the rate environment now, I think over time that will start to come down for a variety of reasons. I think that will lessen. But certainly today we saw those rates jump on the strength of this report. Interesting, Jason. Also still seeing some of the stress on those white collar jobs, you know, management, business and financial, that unemployment increased from 2.2% to 2.4%. Professional unemployment increase a little bit. Sales and offices unemployment rate increased a little bit. Even though the unemployment rate was pretty steady, we are seeing a little bit of stress on the office and those white collar jobs. Which kind of gets back to that, you know, quote from the Ford CEO talking about how at some point in the near future expecting that 50% of white collar jobs could be eliminated or replaced by AI.

[Jason Moser]

Wow, that's just an amazing statistic to think about there. And I'm hoping, hoping that our jobs are still safe. A.C. but we'll see.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah, well, I, I think it'll, I think we're going to see a lot more of that next year or so. A lot of this show up in some of this job data. So I'm paying attention to very closely.

[Jason Moser]

Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Okay, let's pivot into banks here because just this past week we saw the banks all go through the stress test. Right. The Fed went through the stress test with all the banks here and all 22 banks that were examined by the Fed last week passed the stress test. Right. And this is something that really kind of popped up on the radar through the great financial crisis over over a decade ago. But now, I mean, it's encouraging to see at least that we're kind of putting the banks through this sort of regular regimen of making sure that they're okay and healthy. It sounds like in this case the Fed noted they found that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession which is encouraging. Now the result here shouldn't be surprising. We saw a lot of dividend increases and, and we saw a lot of share repurchase authorizations.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah, Jason, it was a little bit of a milder stress test. They had lowered the bar a little bit, I think in a more normal environment, which I think makes sense. So now expecting the Tesco's looks at like a 30% drop in real estate prices or a 33% drop in home prices and if the unemployment rate skyrockets or increases, but that's a little bit more milder than what they had before when the banks were in a little bit more difficult spot. Yeah, so a little bit of a, of a lower bar. But the banks jumped way over. And we saw these increases. We saw Goldman increase their dividend by 33%, JPM, JP Morgan by 7%, bank of America by 8%. So naturally we're going to see them start to return capital more to shareholders because that's essentially what banks are doing. You know, they take in a lot of capital and they make, make good, good profits on their earnings base and they spit that back out to shareholders. So I think the markets would have been disappointed had we not seen those dividend increases after this announcement from the Fed. Yeah.

[Jason Moser]

You know, one thing I thought was interesting, they're talking about like this stress test sort of process, right. It can be taxing, it can, it can produce volatility in this financials market. And the Fed is looking at this and saying, okay, well we're going to try to address this volatility and ultimately we're going to propose that we basically average two consecutive years of stress test results as opposed to just going year by year by year. What do you make of that? Does that make sense to you? And just giving us a little bit more of an average, it seems a bit more long term thinking in my mind.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah, I think so. I mean I think at 10, same thing like jobs, like we talked about the jobs earlier, it's one month and you really have to look at the average over time. And so we don't want to make too much of any one period. And I think the same thing with looking at these Tier 1 capital ratios, undoubtedly the banks are a much better spot now. Undoubtedly they're well more, they're better capitalized. And we saw that not just in the little bit of a more milder test that they achieved and passed. And the fact that so many of, I think almost all of them, I think as you mentioned, all of them pass. So we're seeing these large banks, well capitalize and I think that is a, that measurement over time is what I think investors really want to pay attention to. I think banks are interesting. I used to own bank of America. I sold it like last year and the stock's actually up since, since I sold it and I had already made like 40 or 50% on it. So I think banks are in a good spot. The valuations have started to creep up and you know, have like those on a per book value basis or earnings basis, they are more elevated than historical norms. I think that's the expectation that hey, you know, over the next couple years the economy is going to be in decent enough shape and the banks well capitalized to be able to take advantage of a pretty healthy consumer out there on both the commercial side and the retail side.

[Jason Moser]

Next up, EV sales feel some headwinds.

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[Jason Moser]

Andy we saw a auto report this week that was I guess mixed would be the best way to put it. We saw some good things, we saw some bad things. But it, it does seem like while automakers saw sales slow down a little bit, it feels like maybe there were some impulse buying there in the front half of the year due to tariff uncertainty and whatnot. Tesla really stood out here. I mean when we talk about EVs, I mean Tesla's going to be obviously the headline maker there. But Tesla, they've run to a little bit of a buzzsaw here, right? Tesla global vehicle sales fell by 13 and a half percent in the second quarter compared to a year ago. And it you Know it wasn't just Tesla that felt this. I mean other automakers are feeling the pressure here. But, but what do you make it, is it, do you feel like was this, was this a lot of sort of front loading? Were people kind of impulse buying getting out there in the front half of the year because of tariff uncertainty or is there a little bit more to make of this?

[Andy Cross]

No, we certainly saw outside of Tesla, when you look at Ford's deliveries, they were up 14% or the unit sales up 14% this quarter. Very healthy on the Ford but not on the EV side. So it was all on the industrial combustion engine and the hybrid for Ford's growth. But as you mentioned Jason, Tesla saw continued weakness through this quarter. You mentioned the deliveries fell 13 and a half percent. Now that was above the whisper numbers out there. I think that's why you saw the stock react positively. And I think the concern was it's just going to be so much worse, you know, so a little bit higher than the whisper numbers. Even though it was below the published stated estimate numbers, it was higher than the first quarter. So we saw a little bit improvement from, from into the second quarter. Cybertruck and the other category which is the smallest part of Tesla's sales fell almost 52%. So that was a continued weakness and we see continued struggles with them in China as we're seeing more and more heated up competition really start to ramp up into China. So obviously Tesla has some of these branding issues. They're well documented, we've talked about them before. The story for Tesla is not, it's, it's, it's just the, the, the investing case is not about what is happening right now. It's really what's going to happen with full self driving. The site, the, the robo taxi, all, all of those initiatives even into robotics. That is going to be if it works out the big driving case and success factor for Tesla. So I think the expectations were this was a bad, these were two bad quarters and if you're an investor I think you have to see now Elon Musk back driving sale, he's running the sales department and hopefully start to rebound a little bit throughout the second half of the year and they've hopefully we'll get some new models and some refresh brand acceptance out there for Tesla shareholders.

[Jason Moser]

Yeah, and we're not going to just pick on Tesla here, right? I mean Ford, Hyundai, Kia, they all reported heavy drops in their EV sales. Ford said EV sales fell more than 30% from a year ago. Yeah, it was interesting to me to see that GM actually sort of buck the trend there. They said their EV sales more than doubled from the same time last year, which I, I just thought was fascinating. I don't even. What, what, what is the GM ev? I mean, like, what's out there driving this?

[Andy Cross]

I know. And just you think about just Ford's success across outside of ev. I mentioned the strength in the combustible and the hybrids really and across. Really, they're. I mean, they're so big into SUVs and trucks. They saw a massive growth in those during the quarter. I think a lot of that was pulled forward as you mentioned earlier, Jason. So we saw tariff increases. Ford had their employee pricing for all promotions, so they went out there on the pricing side. So we'll see how that ends up on the gross margins. It'll be something to watch with Ford, but clearly having a lot of success in hybrid and combustible engines. And it is interesting to see just their EV is just not getting a lot of traction. They had that recall on the Mustang Mach E. Think about GM having some success there. I don't know, you know, if that's, if that is the story for the future of GM. I think clearly hybrid, clearly EVs right now, as they are continuing to work through a lot of their battery technology, I think that's just a continued struggle in the market and not getting that much acceptance from the marketplace, especially with I think oil and gas prices where they are so low, so nicely load these days.

[Jason Moser]

Coming up, Cloudflare jumps into the AI ring and a couple of stocks to celebrate our financial freedom.

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[Jason Moser]

Andy, there's some interesting news from Cloudflare this week and we've been batting this back and forth here at work. According to the company, right now they're basically giving their new customers that sign up to use Cloudflare. They're going to be asked if they want to allow or block AI crawlers. Right. That AI technology that goes through there and scrapes websites to get all of this data that feeds those large language models.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah.

[Jason Moser]

The company will also allow publishers to charge AI crawlers for access using a new pay per crawl model. Now, Andy, this makes me think a bit. The first thing I thought about when I read into this, it makes me think a bit about Amazon and Amazon's mission to be the most customer centric company in the world. This seems like from Cloudflare's perspective, this seems like a very customer centric move. Right. They're saying, hey, we want to help you protect your data, we want to help you protect your content and the stuff you're creating. I mean, I understand the other side of it as well. Right. I mean the data needs to be out there in order for these large language models to improve and train and.

[Andy Cross]

Sure.

[Jason Moser]

Do you, do you feel like this is a, is this a smart move by Cloudflare?

[Andy Cross]

Oh, I think it is, Jason. I mean Cloudflare is accountable for maybe 20% of the, of global Internet traffic out there. They're a content delivery network and a cybersecurity firm. So helping, helping their publishing clients and other clients move data around and so protecting them and taking their interests in mind is very smart for Cloudflare. And I actually was very positive on this and this is a business that I owned before and sold earlier this year. But I just think this is actually a very positive move because no one is really addressing the elephant in the room, I think, Jason. And it gets back to the online advertising business and Matthew Prince and his blog at Clairfair when he Claire Cloudflare, when he talked about what they are dubbing content Independence Day, July 1st content Independence Day. And they're for them to help protect these publishers. He talked about the evolution of online search and advertising, starting with the history of Google in that blog post. And I think now he is starting to address, listen to support the publishers that are responsible for so much content out there and the creators. We have to help them to be able to support the models that go into the AI engines that so many of us now are relying on. So they're starting to address the business model behind of what this might look like. They even talked about maybe opening a marketplace where AI engines and AI chatbot companies like OpenAI and Perplexity and even Google itself and others can collaborate with publishers in there. So I find that very encouraging because this is changing so fast. I'm glad someone with the reach of a Cloudflare is talking about this. But of course it is talking their own book because they're trying to support some of their key clients in the publisher realm.

[Jason Moser]

Of course. Yeah. And I mean Cloudflare was like 20% of all Internet traffic. I mean this is not a small player in the industry. Do you feel like this is something that has the potential to snowball and, and maybe cause some near term headwinds in the advancement of AI?

[Andy Cross]

I don't think so, Jason. I don't think so. I think it, it, the, the concern is, and I'm sure we, in fact I think maybe we heard from the likes of OpenAI and there is, there is technology out there that is part of websites to help tell and direct search, crawling engines go here, don't go here. But it's not enforced and so it's more guidance and I think what Cloudflare is saying, we need another level of security. So I, they, they will be concerned. But I do think this starts to, like I said before, address how do we continue to get new fresh content out there and have that get monetized in a way that supports those content creators, but also says no, we need that content because it's a very competitive marketplace. We have so many from Deep Deep Seek and others in China creating more advanced LLMs out there that they are continuing to invest in and they probably not abiding by maybe all the rules out there. So it's a very competitive space. I just think I'm glad that we're seeing some conversation around how we can do this better in a sustainable way for all of the players and stakeholders going forward.

[Jason Moser]

Yeah, and it's worth noting too, I mean Cloudflare has already got, it's already got customers. Right. They've talked about early adopters here. There's Conde Nast Time, Pinterest, Quora, Reddit. I mean so there are, there are companies jumping on board and these are, these are companies obviously responsible for a lot of content that's out there on the Internet. So it'll be, it'll be interesting to see how this develops. Look, Andy, tomorrow of course is the fourth of July in, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, stand back while I celebrate freedom. Before we wrap up today, what is a stock I thought this would be fun to kind of take, take a look at some of the stocks that we like here before we wrap up. What, what's a stock in your own portfolio that makes you think, man, I love having that one in there. That stock or those stocks, they're leading me to my financial freedom.

[Andy Cross]

Well Jason, I have a few I'll mention and then one including one that's also a little bit of a miss by me too from an allocation perspective. And obviously I've talked about Nvidia's importance in my portfolio. It's done so well. It's up more than 1200% for me and it's a large position in my portfolio portfolio Netflix also one that's done very well for my, my family and I'm just very thankful to see those into, into the portfolio along with Chipotle. But one that kind of goes under the radar that we never talk about, that I invested in years ago, more than 10 years ago, is a little company called RBC Bearings. And the ticker symbol is RBC. I think the ticker symbol used to be R O L feeling.

[Jason Moser]

I'm feeling a little Ron Gross here, Andy.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah, so it does high precision ball bearings. It's all about ball bearings these days, Jason. Ball bearings and other technology goes into aerospace and defense and I think from the likes of Transdigm and How Met and others that we've talked about, that aerospace market continues to grow at mid single digits over years and years. It's very technical. You need very, very complex technical machinery that goes into our airplanes, goes into our equipment. And so RBC has just played into this growth market and it's just thumped the market over time, making smart little acquisitions, growing their business, getting some margin expansion. And just one, when I look back on it, it kind of goes under the radar. I didn't unfortunately add enough to it, Jason. I wish I had added more to it along the way. But that one, that one's up very nicely as a multi bagger for me and one that I'm happy to see in my portfolio.

[Jason Moser]

I love all those names and when I look at my portfolio I kind of feel the same way. There's so many companies in there that I just, I'd love to see that I own them day after day after day of IT growth style investments. I'm thinking of things like the Trade Desk and Cloudflare. As we, as we mentioned before, companies have just performed very well for me over, over time. And then I look to sort of the boring staid companies like The Home Depot stands out to me, right? I just, to me, like, that's like when you're, when you're a kid and you wake up and it's Christmas morning and you go find all the products. Like, that's what I feel like every time I go into Home Depot, I'm just always eyes saucered and just looking all over the place. And I know that 20 years from now, I'm still going to be going to Home Depot because I'm going to need to do something or I'm going to want to do something for my house. And you get the dividends coming in along the way. And then, you know, I talked about this with David Gardner recently. Just Waste management, I mean, just a boring business, right? But we produce a lot of trash. And that's the company that just has the biggest network, you know, in the country as far as, like, disposal sites. So Waste Management and Home Depot on the dividend side are just companies that I look at in my portfolio. I think, man, you know what? I'm really glad I own those.

[Andy Cross]

Yeah. Jason, this is why I love investing, because there's so many different ways to make money and to hopefully earn our way towards that financial freedom, from growth to dividends to value and all things in between in international. And so looking across my portfolio, having such an appreciation, like you were saying, from the likes of Home Depot, which is my largest position, all the way down to some small cap companies.

[Jason Moser]

We'll leave it there. Andy Cross, thank you so much for being here. Have a great fourth of July. We'll see you next time.

[Andy Cross]

Thanks, Jason.

[Jason Moser]

As always. People on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. It'll buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content center provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show Notes. I'm Jason Moser. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.