Transcript
Robert Brokamp (0:00)
Foreign.
Robert Brokamp (0:04)
How to make your money last as long as you do and are we now in an E shaped economy? That and more on this Saturday personal finance edition of Motley Fool Money. I'm Robert Brocam, and this week I provide eight ways to increase the odds you won't run out of money in retirement. But first, let's get to some headlines from last week. You've likely heard that some experts have described the current economy as K shaped, in which financial conditions are heading upward for higher income Americans but trending downward for lower income Americans. By financial conditions I mean spending wealth and income growth. And that last one is particularly notable. For years before, during and after the pandemic, the lowest quartile of wage earners actually saw the fastest pace of income growth, but now it's the slowest, according to the Federal Reserve. What about people in the middle? Well, a recent CNBC article by Cameron McNair quotes Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, as saying we're actually in an E shaped economy. With middle income households treading water and showing signs of strain. The top tier is doing well and spending a lot. The highest 20% of earners account for nearly 60% of all U.S. consumer spending, according to Moody's Analytics. Middle earners spending growth was close to those of higher earners until the end of 2025, according to bank of America. These folks are now in what Long calls the Costco economy, increasingly looking for better deals at places like Costco and Walmart. As for the lower tier, they're getting by with a little help from their debt. They're more likely to carry a credit card balance from month to month and use Buy Now Pay later services. According to a LendingTree survey, a quarter of Buy Now Pay later users reported using the loans to buy groceries in 2025, up from 14 in 2024. The increasing levels of stress can also be seen in the declining U.S. personal savings rate, which was 3.6% in December, the most recent month for which we have the figure. That's the lowest number since a string of months in 2022. And before then you have to go back to 2008 for a savings rate below 4%. Higher gas prices are going to help matters. Which brings us to our next item. According to aaa, the average price of a gallon of gas in the US is $3.60 as of March 12, up from two doll a month ago. The reason, of course, is surging oil prices as a consequence of the Iran war. Consumers can gradually absorb these higher prices until they can't a point called the Hamilton Trigger, after University of California economist James Hamilton. According to this metric, an oil shock is defined as when oil spikes to its highest point in three years and then can really have an effect on the economy. I have to say I had never heard of the Hamilton Trigger until it was recently mentioned by Neil Dutta, the head of economics at Renaissance Macro, who discussed it on his podcast as well as the full Signal podcast. And according to Dutta, that trigger would be $95 a barrel. And we're just about there as of this taping on Thursday morning, but fortunately down from when oil was briefly trading at around $120 a barrel on Monday. On Wednesday, the US announced that would release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the International Energy Agency announced that it would release 400 million barrels, the largest such action in the organization's history. Hopefully that all will help. And now for the number of the week, which is 36%. That's America's share of global GDP, up from 24% in 1900. Meanwhile, US equities have grown from 15% of the global stock market in 1900 to 62%. This is all according to the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026 published this week by UBS. It's updated every year and is always chock full of interesting stats about worldw economic and investing history. The current edition highlights that $1 invested in US stocks in 1900 grew to $124,854 by the end of 2025, compared to just $284 for bonds and $69 for bills. In other words, cash. And that outperformance didn't just happen in the U.S. the yearbook finds that stocks were the best performing long term asset class in all 21 countries included in the yearbook's annual analysis, though certainly with some along the way. Remarkably, this outperformance happened despite the fact that 80% of the US stock market in 1900 was in industries that are small or extinct today. Back then, more than half of American equity value was in railroad companies. Meanwhile, 70% of today's companies in the US come from industries that were small or non existent in 1900. Two of today's biggest three sectors, technology and healthcare, were almost totally absent from the stock markets in 1900. And finally, despite the decline of the railroad industry, UBS finds that railroad stocks have actually outperformed the market over the past 125 years. While you likely won't be around that long, you do want to make sure you don't run out of money before you run out of life, which is our next topic of conversation when Motley Fool Money continues.
