Motley Fool Money: Episode Summary – "Management Weighs in on the Macro" Release Date: April 18, 2025

Hosts:

• Dylan Lewis
• Jason Moser (Senior Analyst)
• Matt Argersinger (Senior Analyst)

1. Introduction to Earnings Season

The episode kicks off with hosts Dylan Lewis, Jason Moser, and Matt Argersinger diving into the start of the earnings season. Dylan mentions his recent personal hiatus, returning refreshed from his honeymoon, and sets the stage for discussing key financial results and macroeconomic factors affecting the market.

2. Market Overview: Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty

Jason Moser elaborates on the pervasive uncertainty in the market driven by expanding tariff discussions affecting over 180 countries. He highlights the ripple effects on trade deficits, domestic production, job losses, and interest rates.

• Notable Quote:
  “Everything could change tomorrow. We just don't know because one, one headline, one tweet could change the whole course of things.”
  (Jason Moser, [03:30])

3. Performance of the Magnificent Seven

The analysts discuss the underperformance of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, including Tesla (down ~40%) and Nvidia (down ~23%), contrasting their previous enthusiasm in 2024.

• Insight:
  The decline signifies that even leading companies are not immune to macroeconomic shifts, emphasizing the importance of diversification and cautious investment strategies.

4. Safe Haven Assets and Treasury Yields

Matt Argersinger examines the rising Treasury yields, noting that contrary to expectations, yields have increased from 4% to 4.3% since early April. This rise undermines the administration's hopes of lowering interest rates to mitigate tariff impacts.

• Notable Quote:
  “There’s a real danger to that. If rates stay high and countries like China, Japan, the UK, various countries in the EU aren’t exporting as much to the US and not buying as many Treasuries or worse, they actively decide to stop buying U.S. Treasuries, I think we’re kind of in trouble.”
  (Matt Argersinger, [05:00])

5. Gold vs. S&P 500 Performance

Matt Argersinger highlights that over the past 20 years, the GLD (SPDR Gold Shares ETF) has outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return by surpassing it with a 571% increase compared to 565% by the S&P 500.

• Notable Quote:
  “Gold over the last 20 years. I’m just using the GLD by the way, the Spider Gold Shares ETF. That ETF is up 571% over the last 20 years.”
  (Matt Argersinger, [06:09])

6. Automotive Sector Insights

Jason Moser discusses recent auto supply data indicating a decline in both new and used vehicle supplies, drawing parallels to the constrained supply chains experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. He suggests this may present short-term investment opportunities despite potential long-term challenges.

• Notable Quote:
  “This falls more into the short term catalyst value style of investment here. But I think it's absolutely something to keep an eye on.”
  (Jason Moser, [08:30])

7. United Airlines’ Earnings and Guidance

Matt Argersinger reviews United Airlines' earnings, noting record revenue and earnings per share that surpassed expectations. United provided scenario-based guidance for 2025, projecting earnings per share between $11.50-$13.50 under stable conditions and $7-$9 in a recession scenario.

• Notable Quote:
  “I give management credit for providing that because I think coming into earnings season, all of us are wondering which companies would be brave enough to even provide guidance and would they do something like this.”
  (Matt Argersinger, [09:44])

8. Big Banks' Earnings Analysis

Jason Moser analyzes the earnings reports from major banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs. He notes significant growth in trading revenues, especially in equity markets, and highlights their robust dividend payouts and stock repurchase programs.

• Notable Quote:
  “The markets revenue for the business was up 21% year over year. Fixed income was up 8%, but equity markets were up 48%, which I just found incredible.”
  (Jason Moser, [12:09])

9. Industrial REIT Spotlight: Prologis

Matt Argersinger discusses Prologis, an industrial real estate investment trust (REIT), emphasizing its resilience amidst tariff uncertainties. Prologis maintained its guidance for 2025 despite economic headwinds, supported by strong leasing activity and high occupancy rates.

• Notable Quote:
  “The stock trades for less than 17 times its earnings expectations for this year. It currently yields 4.1% for the dividend.”
  (Matt Argersinger, [17:13])

10. Future of Robotics: Interview with Daniela Rus

The episode features an insightful interview with Daniela Rus, MIT Professor and head of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL). Daniela explores the evolution of robotics, emphasizing the shift towards softer, more adaptable materials to create collaborative robots (cobots) that work alongside humans safely.

• Key Topics:

  • Soft Robotics: Utilizing materials like silicone and even food to develop gentler robots.
  • Cobots: Robots that assist and augment human capabilities in various settings, including warehouses and restaurants.
  • Autonomy Levels: Discussing the challenges of achieving full (Level 5) autonomy and the incremental steps towards more intelligent, shared autonomy systems.
  • Future Consumer Robotics: Envisioning household robots for tasks like laundry folding, dishwashing, and kitchen assistance within the next 10-20 years.

• Notable Quote:
  “I want the machines to adapt to people rather than the other way around, which is the state of the arts today.”
  (Daniela Rus, [22:00])

11. Starbucks’ Dress Code Update

Jason Moser comments on Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol’s recent update to the company's dress code, introducing the "Green Apron" uniform to standardize employee attire across company-owned and licensed stores, aiming for operational consistency.

• Notable Quote:
  “I mean, one of the things that comes to mind is that green apron. So I absolutely appreciate wanting some consistency there in the operation.”
  (Jason Moser, [34:55])

12. Radar Stocks

The analysts present their stock picks for the week:

• Matt Argersinger:
  Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP)

  • Overview: A REIT owning large-scale resorts and convention centers, primarily under the Gaylord brand.
  • Investment Thesis: Despite economic downturn risks, RHP's long-term bookings and high occupancy rates offer stability. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation of less than 11x earnings with a 5.5% dividend yield.

• Jason Moser:
  Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

  • Overview: Dominant in global search but facing increased competition in AI and ongoing antitrust litigation.
  • Investment Thesis: While Alphabet remains a powerhouse, challenges such as reduced market share in search and expensive acquisitions like cybersecurity firm Wiz introduce uncertainty. Upcoming earnings report on April 24 will be pivotal.

• Notable Interactions:
  Daniela Rus shares a light-hearted comment regarding RHP, emphasizing her personal experiences and opinions on the stock.

13. Conclusion and Upcoming Topics

The episode wraps up with a teaser for upcoming discussions, including further analysis of big banks, industrial REITs, and a continued exploration of Radar stocks. Hosts remind listeners of the importance of conducting personal research before making investment decisions.

Final Thoughts: This episode of Motley Fool Money provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macroeconomic landscape, the performance of major financial institutions, and insights into emerging technologies in robotics. The discussion underscores the importance of adaptability and strategic investment in volatile times.

All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not constitute financial advice. Listeners are encouraged to perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions.