Oil Jumps & Stocks Drop – What’s Next?

Summary

Motley Fool Money – “Oil Jumps & Stocks Drop – What’s Next?”
March 3, 2026
Host: Travis Hoyam
Guests: Lou Whiteman, Matt Frankel

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into a turbulent day in the stock market, marked by a dramatic rise in oil prices (up 8%) and a significant drop in major US indices. The Motley Fool’s Hidden Gems team analyzes the immediate market reaction to escalating conflict in the Middle East, explores ripple effects for the real economy (especially consumers), and spotlights how retail giants like Target are adapting. The show concludes with a spirited discussion about insider stock buys and whether they provide actionable signals for investors.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict

[00:05–01:45]

• Delayed Market Response:
  Travis Hoyam notes the attacks occurred over the weekend, but the market responded strongly a day later.
  Lou Whiteman attributes this to the “taco trade”—the idea that markets initially assume new crises will be resolved quickly.
  Quote (Lou):
  "There is the assumption always out there in the markets that whatever new thing has happened will get turned around before it spirals out of control... But also it could just be, wow... this is serious stuff and it could get complicated quickly. It's risk off because there's a lot of risk." (01:04)

• Widespread Uncertainty:
  Matt Frankel highlights the broad sell-off, noting that even typically “safe” sectors like defense stocks and REITs are down.
  Quote (Matt):
  "When you see like a big broad based kind of downturn, it really just tells me it's uncertainty. The market doesn't know what to make." (01:55)

2. Real Economy & Consumer Impact

[02:40–05:45]

• Energy Prices and the Consumer:
  Travis points out how quickly a fuel price spike filters down to consumers, referencing the 2008 financial crisis as a parallel.

• Potential Risks Ahead:
  Lou: Middle East turmoil alone won't tank the US economy but, given current weakness in consumer discretionary sectors, higher oil could be the “proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.” (03:53)

• Volatility of Crude Oil:
  Matt notes that oil’s 8% rise isn’t a crisis yet, but if crude spikes to $100 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it could be a “final push” for already-stretched consumers.

  Quote (Matt):
  "That's why Walmart's doing so well, for example. And when energy goes up, consumers feel even more squeezed. We've seen kind of energy prices during this inflationary period just kind of go all over the place... I don't think today's move is going to have a big effect on consumer spending. But if it goes much further than that, it could." (04:44)

3. How to Invest on Volatile Days

[05:45–07:54]

• The Value of Doing Nothing:
  Lou encourages investors to avoid panic selling amid big drops.
  Quote (Lou):
  "The most important thing to me is the moves you don't make. The biggest thing to do is not panic, sell something like this ... The biggest, most important thing for long term wealth creation is to avoid panic selling." (06:11)

• Market Opportunities:
  Matt agrees: it may feel tempting to act, but “being okay with doing nothing prevents you from making knee jerk decisions.” (07:08) Both stress that if stocks were attractive before, a 3-5% drop doesn't drastically change the fundamental opportunity.

  Quote (Matt):
  "I've said before, I wake up and I look at my brokerage account and I turn it off and I say today's a great day to do nothing." (07:08)

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4. Retail in the K-Shaped Economy: Focus on Target

[09:32–14:41]

• Target’s Position:
  Travis frames Target as squeezed between discount king Walmart and higher-end retailers.

  • Guidance and Turnaround Prospects:
    Matt: Target’s full-year guidance is “impressive”; new leadership brings hope, but the brand must avoid “becoming the next Kmart.” Quote (Matt):
    "Target has a relatively short window of opportunity to avoid becoming the next Kmart." (10:17)

  • Commoditization and Differentiation Struggles:
    Lou: Target’s differentiation has faded. Even with revenue and comp sales down, shares rose due to “three cheers for low expectations.” Quote (Lou): "This is an industry where your legacy means nothing... The Target era is going to be hard to get back." (11:20)

  • Membership & Store Experience:
    Matt argues Target needs to normalize the store experience and lean into membership (Target Circle360). However, consistent customer experience is lacking. Quote (Matt): "They have to one, normalize their store experience across their brand... I do like that they're really leaning into their membership program... the average member of that spends eight times more than the average non member." (13:09)

  • Operational Inefficiency:
    Lou jokes about underutilized checkout lanes and suggests a radical rethink, yet admits he now dreads shopping at Target. Quote (Lou): "You could just rip out a lot of technology, sell it—sell it on Best Buy, refurbish and just make money right there. Seriously. I still use Target, but more and more dreading going to Target." (14:02)

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5. Do Insider Buys Matter?

[16:03–18:51]

• Insider Buys as a Signal:
  Matt explains insider purchases are only a mild bullish sign and cites recent buys: Anthony Noto (SoFi), Bill McDermott (ServiceNow), Jared Isaacman (Shift4). But size and context matter.

  • Noto’s recent purchase was just 0.5% of his holdings and small compared to shares received from compensation.

• Skepticism Over Signal Strength:
  Lou regards insider buys as more of a marketing tactic or press release than a meaningful investment thesis.
  Quote (Lou): "Is it a signal worth watching? No... Why does Anthony Noto buy a million shares when he buys? He's trying to signal; it's a form of a press release." (17:58)

  • The team agrees fundamental business performance and valuation matter much more than insider buying activity.

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "It's risk off because there's a lot of risk." — Lou Whiteman (01:15)
• "When you see like a big broad based kind of downturn, it really just tells me it's uncertainty. The market doesn't know what to make." — Matt Frankel (01:55)
• "The most important thing to me is the moves you don't make. The biggest thing to do is not panic, sell something like this..." — Lou Whiteman (06:11)
• "Target has a relatively short window of opportunity to avoid becoming the next Kmart." — Matt Frankel (10:17)
• "You could just rip out a lot of technology, sell it on Best Buy, refurbish and just make money right there. Seriously. I still use Target, but more and more dreading going to Target." — Lou Whiteman (14:02)
• "Is it a signal worth watching? No... Why does Anthony Noto buy a million shares when he buys? He's trying to signal; it's a form of a press release." — Lou Whiteman (17:58)

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Segment Timestamps

• [00:05] – Opening: Market selloff, oil price surge, initial reactions
• [01:55] – Discussion: Market uncertainty and widespread sector impacts
• [02:40] – Consumer impact and economic parallels to past crises
• [05:45] – Advice: Investing strategies amid volatile days
• [09:32] – Retail focus: Target earnings, positioning, and turnaround hopes
• [16:03] – Insider buys: Validation or just noise?
• [18:51] – Closing remarks

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Tone & Takeaways

The show maintains its trademark mix of skepticism, insight, and quips. Analysts urge long-term investors to keep a cool head during volatile stretches, resist panic selling, and focus on fundamentals. Macro risks may create jitters, but opportunities change little overnight. Retailers like Target face enormous strategic hurdles—and insider buys, while headline-grabbing, rarely alter the big picture.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

The stock market is down on Tuesday. Is this an overreaction or the reaction we should have had yesterday? Molly Fool Money with the Hidden Gems team starts now. Welcome to the show. I am Travis Hoyam, joined today by Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel. And guys, we have to start with the news of the day. That's it. The markets are down pretty big. Both S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite down over one and a half percentage points. Crude oil is up 8% as we're recording. Lou, this is all in reaction to what's going on in the Middle east right now. But what's interesting about this is this didn't happen yesterday. These attacks, all the destruction that's going on started over the weekend. You would have thought theoretically that yesterday we would have had a big reaction from the market. They waited a day. So what's going on here?

[A]

Great question.

[C]

I mean, it started to happen yesterday and then it suddenly turned around and didn't happen. I think part of this, and we're not a political show or anything, but there is what they call the taco trade. I think there is the assumption always out there in the markets that whatever new thing has happened will get turned around before it spirals out of control. Maybe today is comments overnight saying we can as long as it takes, we're not going to back down. Just kind of that energy seeping out of the market. But also it could just be, wow, you know, taco trade or not, this is serious stuff and it could get complicated quickly. It's risk off because there's a lot of risk.

[B]

Matt, what are you thinking when you look at the market being down like this? Is this something that we should be worried about? Is it a buying opportunity? Where's your hat at?

[A]

Well, there were a couple of developments since yesterday that I think are contributing to this. I mean, just to name the big one, you know, a U.S. embassy was just attacked since last night. So I think that's kind of adding to the uncertainty here. And uncertainty is really the word you're seeing here. When I see a broad based sell off like this where pretty much every sector is getting hit, defense stocks are getting hit. I mean, that's the one sector you'd think would be up. Conservative plays like real estate investment trusts are getting hit. Those are normally considered safety stocks. So when you see like a big broad based kind of downturn, it really just tells me it's, it's uncertainty. The market doesn't know what to make. They don't know if this Conflict's going to go on for a week, for six months or whatever, and that's really what seems to be driving today's action.

[B]

One of the things I wanted to get your thoughts on is how this spills over into the regular economy, because the rise in oil prices, I think, is really notable because that's something that people are actually going to feel in the U.S. you know, even if you're not going to feel, you know, all. All of the attacks that are going on in the Middle east, you are going to feel that. I filled my gas tank this morning. It was significantly more expensive than it was yesterday. So the historical parallel, at least in the last 20 years, is that if you go back to the financial crisis, one of the kind of tipping points there was oil and gasoline got really expensive. Suddenly, that exposed a whole bunch of weakness in consumers. We'll talk about Target in a little bit.

[A]

But.

[B]

But, Lou, is that a concern, that these kind of actions sort of seem isolated from the economy, but the ways that they spill over actually do impact people's pocketbooks. And if something like gasoline, you know, if. If the. The barrel of oil goes to $100, suddenly that starts stretching consumers a little bit more. We've already seen weakness with restaurant stocks. We've seen weakness in certain segments of the retail sector. Is that something that we should at least have on our radar in 2026?

[C]

Absolutely. And look, there is all sorts of reasons to be concerned right now, but as an investor, I think you nailed the biggest concern we've talked a lot, Travis, about. The consumer isn't one person. It's just a critical mass of people who are able to get by, keep going with their routine. That's enough to keep the economy going. I don't think what's happening in the Middle east in and of itself can cause, like, can make a good economy a bad economy. But if it is that proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back, that just fewer and fewer people can continue on with whatever they're spending, they're eating out, I think that's very possible. And that could be just that final push in what has already been sort of an elevated market. I think that as an investor, that is the exact concern right now.

[A]

You said that crude was up by about 8% today. I don't think that in and of itself is going to be a big driver of consumer behavior by itself. Now, if oil spikes to $100 a barrel, like you just referenced, it could be a lot different, and that could be also a lot of what's weighing on the market right now is consumers feel squeezed. They just do. That's why Walmart's doing so well, for example. And when energy goes up, consumers feel even more squeezed. And we've seen kind of energy prices during this inflationary period just kind of go all over the place. That's why they're kind of excluded from the core numbers because they tend to be really volatile. Normally. Normally when we're coming out of winter is the time when crude prices are stablest. And you're seeing that kind of change now. And like, it's really the uncertainty at this point. I don't think today's move is going to have a big effect on consumer spending. But if it goes much further than that, it could. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And if that lasts, then $100 oil is not out of the question.

[B]

All right, I want to get your thoughts specifically about whether you're seeing opportunities out there today. Obviously, there's different pockets of the market, so there's maybe going to be different opportunities in different places. But when you look at your watch list, is a day like today, a day you're going, wow, I really want to be a buyer here? Or are you saying, hey, the cash that I do, maybe I have sitting on the sideline, I'm happy it's there and I'm going to just kind of let this play out. Where's your head at, Lou?

[C]

So first off, I think it's important to say that the most important thing to me is the moves you don't make. The biggest thing to do is not panic, sell something like this because inevitably you sell at the bottom and buy back after. So I honestly think that sitting on your hands is an okay solution. As much fun as it is to brag about buying at the Lowe's, if you had your cocktail parties and it's great. If you see opportunities, go ahead and do that. But the biggest, most important thing for long term wealth creation is to avo panic selling. As of buying, I don't. Valuations were sky high coming in. I don't really any see anything that, you know, you couldn't have bought three months ago almost, or they don't have new baggage attached to them like some of these SaaS plays. I am pretty content to just keep an eye out and not really commit. I've thought a couple of things, just kind of just cut on valuation. But I think doing nothing is okay here.

[A]

Yeah, I'm with Lou. Yes, I see opportunities in the market. To answer your question, they're the same opportunities that were on my watch list yesterday. It's a broad sell off. Most of the things on my watch list are down in the 3 to 5% ballpark today. And one of the most important skills I like to emphasize for investors to have is to be okay with doing nothing when this kind of stuff happens. I've said before, I wake up and I look at my brokerage account and I turn it off and I say today's a great day to do nothing. And it's a tougher skill to acquire because people want to rush in before things go cheaper or sell before things get any worse. And being okay with doing nothing prevents you from making knee jerk decisions. And if something was an opportunity 5% ago, it's still going to be an opportunity when it comes back.

[B]

Yeah, taking that step back can be one of the hardest things to do as an investor because you're right, this is a broad sell off. That was one of the first things I looked at this morning. Are there specific names that are down a whole bunch or is it just is that everything and everything that I have in my watch list and in my portfolio is down kind of that same range, 3 to 5%, Matt. So maybe we have the same, same stocks in our portfolio. When we come back, we're going to get to what retailers specifically Target are expecting in 2026. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

[D]

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[B]

Money with the Hidden Gems team. Matt, we got news from Target. This is one of the strange retailers to watch today because it's not the super discount retailer like you have from Walmart. They seem to be doing really well. They're not the high end retailer. They're sort of stuck in the middle. So Lou's been talking about this K shaped economy for gosh, must be almost a year now. And we're kind of seeing this with Target. Their results not all that impressive on a trailing basis but they are expecting a little bit of growth in 2026. What did you take from the quarter at Target?

[A]

Yeah, I mean their full year guidance is impressive. It suggests that we might be, you know, turning a corner here. I love the leadership change and if I remember correctly, you know Travis, you live pretty much close enough to Target's headquarters to see it from your window.

[B]

I do.

[A]

I wonder if you agree with me that I think Target has a relatively short window of opportunity to avoid becoming the next Kmart.

[B]

Ooh, ouch.

[A]

I don't do I think they're going to go out of business and you know, start doing blue way specials and things like that? No, but all the things that used to differentiate it from other big box retailers, specifically Walmart, are less apparent than they used to be just in the in store experience. You know, their omnichannel presence used to be better than Walmart's. Now it's not. It's just one example of it and they need to really get back to giving people a reason to go there. Especially times like this when consumers are squeezed.

[B]

Yeah, Lou, this has been a strange one to watch because the valuation is really compelling. Low, low double digits, price to earnings multiple. That's why the stock at least early in trading was up on the news despite. We've got the fact that we have a down day. But you know, Matt's right. Guidance was for positive results and it's just better than negative at this point.

[C]

Yeah, I mean first of all, three cheers for low expectations. Right? Because look, it's not nothing. They're up 4% on a day that's just miserable. So that is, I mean that's a monster move on a normal day. But yeah, revenue was down, comp sales down. I mean basically the, the cheer is it could have Been worse. And it was, you know, look, I think that Matt's comparison, I don't think that was meant as a prediction. Or maybe it was. I'm not ready to go there yet. But I think it is good for investors to have in mind because this is an industry where your legacy means nothing. And I do think, I mean, step one is to get out of a spiral. Step two is to reestablish yourself as a destination. The Target era is going to be hard to get back. And what is like even Best Buy?

[A]

Best Buy.

[C]

If I need electronics, I go to Best Buy. If I need athletics, I go to Dick's. Target is just kind of, well, we got everything. And that's not really a differentiator. I think that that's the really hard thing for management and for investors here. If Target is to thrive, they have to figure out the answer to that question. If not, it's going to be, if not Kmart, kind of just treading water and, you know, very small gains. And as an investor, I'm not going

[A]

to get excited about that.

[B]

Matt, do you think this is something that can be a turnaround story? Or is.

[D]

Is.

[B]

Are things just kind of too far gone? Because you're not going to be able to have these mass discount retailers like you have with Walmart. There's not, there's not room for two of them anymore. There used to be three or four, if you include Sears in that with. With that group as well. That's what I sort of struggle with right now is what should management be doing? You mentioned that they have a new CEO. Is this a turnaroundable story?

[A]

It is. They have to one, normalize their store experience across their brand. Because you probably know I have a vacation house in Orlando and the Target there is always packed. It's beautiful, it's always clean. It's got everything I need. The one near me is the complete opposite. There's never more than two cashiers working at the same time. And it's just a terrible in store experience. There's a lot to not like about that. I do like that they're really leaning into their membership program. Not because I think the $99 membership to target Circle360 is going to make a big difference, which was up 25% year over year, but it's still a rounding error in their earnings. But the average member of that spends eight times more than the average non member. So I really like that they're leaning into that. Like I said, they're making the right moves. I don't want to say that this is Kmart yet, but management should be very afraid of this becoming the next Kmart.

[C]

Yeah, free tip for them if they want to get their efficiency levels up. Every target around us they have about 17 or 18 checkout lanes, maybe like Matt says, one or two occupied and then two separate self checkout sections that are mostly closed. I've never been in there where both are open. You could just rip out a lot of technology, sell it, I don't know, sell on Best Buy, refurbish and just make money right there. Seriously. I still use Target, but more and more dreading going to Target. I think that this is a challenge here. Maybe they can do it, but I as an investor again, I'm just not

[B]

looking to lean in if they do pull it off. It is a very cheap stock today, so multiple expansion would be part of that story in the future. When we come back, we're going to talk about some cheap stocks and some insider buys. Do they mean something or not? You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

[D]

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[B]

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money with the Hidden Gems team. Do insider buys matter? This is one of these things that we often talk about as investors. Insiders sell for all kinds of reasons, but they only buy for one reason, because they're bullish on a stock. So at least that's the theory. Matt we have some insider buys recently, and this is one of the things I've been watching is, you know, you have some low stock prices. Are insiders going to buy? Are they going to announce buybacks? We saw Anthony Noto at SoFi, Bill McDermott at ServiceNow, Jared Isaacman at Shift4. Those are some of the bigger names doing buybacks. Is that a big deal or is it noise for investors?

[A]

It matters in the same sense that an accelerated buyback is management saying that the stock is cheap. That's especially true if it's on the more aggressive side. Let's take Sofi, for example. Anthony Noto, he just spent a million dollars to buy shares. That sounds like a lot, but he owns $210 million worth of shares and is the company's largest stockholder. So he increased his position by 0.5%. But what I will say is last time he aggressively bought shares, it happened during the late 2022, early 2023 period. And he did it as a series of buys. It wasn't like he bought $50 million all at once. He bought a million dollars here. A few days later he bought another million, and so on and so on and so on.

[B]

And if I remember right, the Stock was about $6 a share.

[A]

It was about $6. So even after the recent downturn, it's still a triple from where he bought it. So when he starts, if this turns into the first, it might take more notice. But it is nice when, you know, companies and the executives who run them start putting their money where their mouth is. It doesn't. It changes nothing fundamentally about the business. Buybacks do that more than than insider buying does. But it is nice validation that, you know, they also think that the stock is cheap and want to do something about it to help their own wealth.

[C]

Lou, I'll go as far as to say, does it matter? I guess kind of. But is it a signal worth watching? No, just like, as you say, sales happen for a lot of reasons. These, I mean, look, this is a partially marketing. Why does Anthony Noto buy a million shares when he buys? He's trying to signal it's a form of a press release. The other thing too is that while CEOs have inside knowledge, they also tend to, you know, believe their own hype. So I mean, I don't think, I mean, maybe on the side, like, yeah, it's great that they're bullish. They better be bullish. They're running the dang company. Get out of there and find someone else. If not, would much rather just look at fundamentals. Look at thing, you know, markets. I don't think that as an investor, I'm going to make a decision based on this. It's great. Yippee. But I don't, I, I, I, I think much more is read into this than it should be.

[B]

Yeah. Just to take Noto as an example, over the last two years, his position in SoFi has increased by about 3 million shares. And that's because of restricted stock units, grants, things like that. So buying 56,000 shares is great. That's great. But it is very small compared to what he has been given as compensation for running so far. So maybe a little bit of both here. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about. And the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows the Motley Fool's editorial standards. It is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes for Lou Whitewin, Matt Frankel and Dan Boyd. Behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoyam. Thanks for listening. We'll see you here tomorrow.