Motley Fool Money — "Our Stock Market Naughty and Nice List"

Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam
Analysts: Lou Whiteman, Rachel Warren

Episode Overview

In this festive year-end recap, the Motley Fool Money team assembles their 2025 “Stock Market Naughty and Nice List.” Hosts Travis Hoyam, Lou Whiteman, and Rachel Warren review which companies and executives delighted or disappointed investors this year. Their discussion blends both data-driven insights and witty banter, with picks spanning technology, retail, fintech, and more. The analysts also share their holiday “shopping lists” — the stocks they’re eyeing for 2026.

Stocks & Executives on the 2025 Nice List

The ‘Mag Seven’ Still Shine

Lou Whiteman:

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
  • Came into 2025 with doubts about its future due to threats from OpenAI and other AI upstarts.
  • Delivered ~70% stock return this year — best among the "Mag 7".
  • Continued dominance in autonomous tech and streaming.
  • "Gemini looks like the big winner here." (01:15)
  • “All of the search issues aren’t completely answered, but there is at least a compelling answer to what becomes of this business. And it is very, very nice.” (01:32)
• Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Maintained strong momentum after years of “absolute tear.”
  • Deemed nearly a "value stock now."
  • “Santa is not going to criticize someone for just doing what they were supposed to... Nvidia, they went out and did exactly what the bulls would hope. And again, very, very nice.” (01:48)

Standout Executives

Lou Whiteman:

• Sir Peter Beck, CEO of Rocket Lab
  • Rocket Lab shares doubled in 2025.
  • Praised Beck for staying focused on “building the company you want to build” and not letting the market distract him.
  • “Stick to building the company you want to build. I haven’t seen him change his long term vision in any way. He is tops on my CEO nice list.” (02:48)

Other Notable Businesses

Rachel Warren:

• Mercado Libre
  • Latin America’s e-commerce and fintech giant, continuing rapid and consistent revenue growth.
  • 27 consecutive quarters of 30%+ YoY revenue growth.
  • Expanding logistics; leveraging AI for efficiency.
  • “Just a fantastic and well run business.” (03:34)
• TJX Companies (parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls)
  • Off-price retail model has thrived amid sector challenges.
  • “Their smart buying strategies have paid off... that off price treasure hunt model... tends to really thrive in various [environments].” (03:55)
• Klarna
  • Buy-Now, Pay-Later fintech, US IPO this year.
  • Gaining market share and signing major partnerships (Walmart, eBay).
  • Also operates as a digital bank in Europe.
  • “One that I think investors should watch going into the new year.” (04:43)

Buy-Now, Pay-Later: Fad or Future?

Rachel Warren:

• “I don't think it's a fad. I don't think it's going anywhere. I think this is going to be one of many tools in the consumer's toolkit...” (05:08)
• Notes its practical role in tough macro environments.

2025 Naughty List: Who Got Coal?

Regulators in the Hot Seat

Lou Whiteman:

• US Antitrust Regulators
  • Failed high-profile cases (especially vs. Alphabet).
  • Blocked big deals, leading to poor outcomes for target companies.
  • Spirit Airlines: Blocked JetBlue merger, leading to company declaring bankruptcy twice ("Chapter 22").
  • iRobot: After blocked Amazon acquisition, company sold to a Chinese buyer.
  • “So the idea there was Amazon can't have the data, but now China has it. So maybe not a great win.” (07:57)
  • “Great, great year. Expect that coal in your stockings.” (08:04)

Companies That Struggled

Lou Whiteman:

• Fiserv (FI)
  • Down 65% YTD, “the market decided that the Clover terminal Fiserv's big product. That's not gonna be the big winner.” (08:20)
  • Congressional scrutiny over business decisions.
• The Trade Desk
  • Lost two-thirds of value this year.
  • Lou: “I didn't want to put on there. ...I still believe in the company, but...a lot of work to do to stay off of the naughty list in 2026.” (08:49)

Rachel Warren:

• Target
  • Shares down about 30% YTD.
  • Hit hard by inflation, decreased discretionary spending, lagging behind Costco and Walmart.
  • “High inflation is making a lot of consumers more price sensitive...About half of their sales come from discretionary items.” (09:19)
  • Additional struggles: declining store traffic, inventory issues, customer backlash.
• Starbucks
  • Shares down (single digits), but high-profile turnaround issues under new CEO.
  • Pressures from margin compression and competition in China.
  • “They’re losing market share... Can they make a turnaround in 2026? I would be looking...going into 2027 if I'm being honest.” (10:23)

Holiday Shopping: Buys for 2026

Rachel Warren’s Watch List

• Healthcare: Eli Lilly, Pfizer.
• Retail: Walmart, Costco, Lululemon (undervalued opportunities).
• Tech: Alphabet remains a compelling buy.
• On Value Investing: “If you're looking for a truly undervalued business, you need to look for consistent and growing revenue, stable profit margins, positive cash flow, a sustainable moat and competitive advantage that protects the market position.” (12:53)
• On Walmart/Costco: “They have their own durable competitive advantages for different reasons...Walmart's part, about 60% of their revenue comes from grocery sales...Costco makes most of their profits from those membership dues...” (13:21–13:36)

Lou Whiteman’s Focus

• Financials, REITs, ignored sectors:
  • “There are so many opportunities right now in financials and REITs...interest rates are coming down. That tends to [help] these sectors.” (13:56)
• Riskier, smaller stocks for downturns:
  • “If the economy does falter, I am going to...look really hard at some riskier, smaller stocks...areas like space automation...maybe buy some of the better companies, knowing there could be some zeros. But I think that's where you find the big winners.” (14:25)
• On market pullback:
  • “Downturns are the best buy if you're a long term holder. And so if we do see that this year, I'm curious about what might be out there on sale.” (15:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Santa is not going to criticize someone for just doing what they were supposed to.”
  — Lou Whiteman on Nvidia (01:49)

• “Gemini looks like the big winner here.”
  — Lou Whiteman on Alphabet’s AI efforts (01:15)

• “Expect that coal in your stockings.”
  — Lou Whiteman to antitrust regulators (08:04)

• “I still believe in the company [The Trade Desk], but I'll say this. They have a lot of work to do to stay off of the naughty list in 2026.”
  — Lou Whiteman (08:51)

• “...you need to look for consistent and growing revenue, stable profit margins, positive cash flow, a sustainable moat and competitive advantage...”
  — Rachel Warren on identifying undervalued stocks (12:53)

Timestamps by Segment

• 00:05 — Introduction and format
• 00:40 — Nice List: Alphabet, Nvidia, Rocket Lab
• 03:09 — Rachel’s Nice List: Mercado Libre, TJX, Klarna
• 05:08 — The future of Buy Now Pay Later
• 06:48 — Naughty List: US Antitrust Regulators, Spirit Airlines, iRobot, Fiserv, The Trade Desk
• 09:03 — Rachel’s Naughty List: Target, Starbucks
• 12:07 — Holiday stock “shopping lists” (2026 picks)
• 13:54 — Lou’s focus on financials, REITs, and risky small-caps for next year

This episode delivers a rich reflection on the year’s investing highs and lows, offering both a reality check and actionable ideas for 2026. The analysts remain focused on fundamentals, long-term opportunity, and distinguishing true value from value traps on their holiday wish lists.